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CrowdWorx - Introducing Enterprise 2.0 Social Forecasting
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CrowdWorx - Introducing Enterprise 2.0 Social Forecasting


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Aggregate the knowledge of 240.000 employees into one number, which goes directly to the CEO? CrowdWorx introduces Social Forecasting. Social Forecasting is an employee-based Crowdsourcing approach. …

Aggregate the knowledge of 240.000 employees into one number, which goes directly to the CEO? CrowdWorx introduces Social Forecasting. Social Forecasting is an employee-based Crowdsourcing approach.
Learn about the idea of Social Forecasting and read Enterprise 2.0 business case studies how Social Forecasting is revolutionizing Decision Support. Case studies include Vodafone, Syngenta, Deutsche Telekom, Tchibo, Henkel.

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  • Transcript

    • 1. The Rise of Social
    • 2. Idea: Bundling the collective intelligence of individuals insideand outside organizations for better forecasts Product managers Own sales force Other departments or business units Optional: External analysts Optional: Consumers and experts etc.
    • 3. Why Social Forecasting? Everybody has insights; SocialForecasting collects and transforms them into one number Crowdsourcing Incentives Wisdom of Efficiently aggregate Crowds distributed information . Proven high-precision forecasts on various topics Forecasts are updated automatically in real-time Lower cost than traditional forecasting methods * Sources:
    • 4. How it works: Participants trade their opinions on theCrowdWorx Enterprise website with only 2 clicks Results CrowdWorx Web browser in Excel after website a few days
    • 5. START: On the main page users see all ongoing forecasts of thecompany and can choose in which ones to participate try it…
    • 6. Example “Forecast unit sales for next 4 calendar weeks (CW)”Sales can be forecasted at any level, e.g. by region, by segment. Pick the week you want to forecast try it…
    • 7. Users have an incentive to give their best forecast in order to win;Players who don’t have knowledge will self-select not to forecast The more confident Enter your you are the more you forecast can stake try it…
    • 8. Results of all forecasts go to an Excel report for management The crowd forecast is updated in real-time try it…
    • 9. Crowd-Social Forecasting sourcing IncentivesIdea ResultsIncentive to forecast as Proven higher forecastinggood as possible accuracy Forecast is updatedPerformance-based rewards automatically in real-timeInteraction with the crowd Low costPeople also report how sure they Simple 2-click usageare about their knowledge Fun & recognition
    • 10. Industry leaders are using CrowdWorx to optimize decisions with thepower of safe & secure Crowdsourcing EXAMPLES Demand planning of 90% cost reduction vs. internal process, new products same accuracy (80%) Unit sales forecasting of 22% higher forecasting accuracy vs. single products (SKUs) internal process Market trends and Early warning signals in a highly demand forecasting volatile market (agribusiness) Knowledge of 240,000 employees is New products, strategy, turned into one number, which goes market trends directly to the CEO Evaluation of innovations 25,000 opinions were merged into in ICT industry crips and clear quantitative KPIs
    • 11. Client example: Enterprise-wide Social Forecasting with 240,000employees at global Telco firm ? 1. Manager has a forecasting question Topics include 2. Relevant employee groups get mail about new question • New products • Market trends • New customer count • Dollar exchange rates 3. Employees have max. 5 days to submit their opinions • Technology trends • And more… 4. After max. 1 week the forecast is on the managers desk read more…
    • 12. Client example: Market forecasting in global agricultural markets US Soybean Acreage in 2008, in mio. acres9085 Social Forecasting80 Actual acreage 74,5 million acres gathers employee75 CrowdWorx forecast opinions until the70 74,4 million acres social forecast65 achieves an optimal6055 equilibrium50 2-Jun 6-Jun 10-Jun 14-Jun 18-Jun read more…
    • 13. Client example: New product sales forecasting at a large retail chain Forecasted market shares vs. actual per product 3% Each dot is one forecasted Employees social product forecast correlates with Actual outcome 2% actual sales 81%! Traditional forecasting 1% with test sales has 10 times the cost of CrowdWorx 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% CrowdWorx Forecast read more…
    • 14. Client example: Demand planning at a global Consumer Goodsmanufacturer Demand forecasting accuracy, in % 90% 81% 84% CrowdWorx’ social forecast significantly surpasses the client’s current forecasting method! Average accuracy CrowdWorx Internal November December January CrowdWorx Henkel method 85,3% 69,5% read more…
    • 15. Example: General Election in Germany 2009 Forecasting error of pollsters vs. CrowdWorx Social Forecasting 14,0% 12,2% 12,0% 11,4% 11,6% 9,5% 10,0% Accurate and fast 10,0% 8,5% forecasts for a 8,0% 6,4% fraction of the cost of 6,0% traditional surveys 3,8% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% Forsa Allens CROWD Forsch. Emnid Infratest GMS ARD bach WORX Wahlen dimap WahltippNumber ofparticipants 1000 1000 89 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
    • 16. CrowdWorx is not just a game – it creates significant value! Cost & benefit (per year)* kEUR Expected profit from Expected profit Cost reduction by Annual cost of One-time Additional profit avoiding stock-outs from avoiding stock- using less test sales working hours for CrowdWorx project from implementing overs or other traditional CrowdWorx and license cost CrowdWorx methods participation of 500 participants * Sanitized client example
    • 17. Areas of Application: CrowdWorx is Social Decision Support forbetter management decisions in a variety of areasSales & •How many units will we sell in the 3rd & 4th quarter of this year?OperationsPlanning •What will be our market share in segment A in China in 2015?Innovation •Which newproduct concepts should be part of our product range?management •Should we follow the current hybrid drive technology trend?Project •Will platform P90 be ready for the planned release date?management •How much capacity should we allocate for maintenance work?
    • 18. Social Forecasting has 6 key success factors Forecasting- Participants topics Forecasting Management with Incentives Support CrowdWorx Commu- Platform nication
    • 19. For white papers, case studies and more visit our website E-Mail: Web: Phone: +49-30-224-121-76 (Berlin) +49-89-61 066-793 (Munich) +48-61-885-77-02 (Poznan) +1-617-763-8082 (Boston) Fax: +48-61-885-77-15