August 2012 CrossborderInforma briefing by Crossborder Group: a snapshot of selected security trends in Baja California, but focusing on Tijuana -- data that may lead some to believe it's time to reassess the rhetoric often used about a "drug war" and "violence" within that city. Data presented include a national-level security perception survey, Baja California state and Tijuana crime trends, a comparison of homicide rates in selected US and Mexico cities during the first half of 2012 (Jan.-June), and results from a multi-year security perception survey applied by Crossborder Group at the San Diego-Tijuana Ports of Entry. CrossborderInforma briefings are issued 1-2 times each month, covering a variety of economic, industry, and policy-related issues in Mexico and along the US-Mexico border region. For more information, please contact our firm at Answers[at]CrossborderBusiness[dot]com, or call us toll free at 1-888-4XBORDER [888-492-6733]. Have a Mexico or NAFTA question? We can help.

1. C r o ss bo r de r I N F O R M A | R e s e ar c h • A n al y s is • I n sig h t s
Security Trends in Tijuana (1H-2012): Time to Reassess Rhetoric?
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2. August 27, 2012
Crossborder Group is pleased to
provide this CrossborderINFORMA
briefing of key indicators and survey
results – one of the many ways our firm
offers data and insights about business
and policy issues along the US-Mexico
border region and throughout Mexico.
This CrossborderINFORMA briefing is
focused on Security Trends in Tijuana
and Baja California during the first-
half of 2012 (January-June).

3. MEXICO PUBLIC SECURITY PERCEPTION INDEX (2009-2012)
Throughout a majority (although not all) areas of Mexico, the public
perceptions of security are starting to improve.
• As seen below, INEGI’s monthly survey of 32 metro areas, Índice de
Percepción sobre la Seguridad Pública, has on average been showing an
overall positive trend since early-2011:

4. BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TIJUANA: TOTAL CRIME INCIDENTS
• Particularly within the State of Baja California and the City of
Tijuana, data from the State’s Secretaría de Seguridad Pública shows
a significant decrease in total crime incidents (violent & non-violent)…
• Comparing the average monthly total crime incidents during peak
months in 2008 to 2012’s first six months, Baja California experienced
a -21.8% decrease and Tijuana a -31.5% decrease…

5. COMPARISON: CITY HOMICIDE RATES* 1H-2012 (ANNUALIZED)
• In fact, continuing its decline
from 2011, the homicide rate* for
Tijuana through the first-half of
2012 now puts it significantly
under a number of well-known
cities within the United States
• Not only is the 1H-2012 homicide
rate for Tijuana similar to many
cities considered relatively
“safe”, it is also less than half of
that for the City of Monterrey
• Also of note: the 1H-2012
homicide rate* for Ciudad Juarez
is now below that of the City of
East St. Louis, IL
* Research by Crossborder Group: Homicide victim data from police/law enforcement & multiple media sources for Jan-Jun
2012; pop. estimates use 2011 US Census, Mexico estimates based on 2010 Censo & 2011 ENOE; homicide rate annualized (i.e.:
6 mo. rate times 2)

6. COMPARISON: TIJUANA & CHICAGO MONTHLY HOMICIDES
• As another point of comparison: During the 12 months between July
2011 and June 2012, the City of Tijuana actually had 23% fewer
homicides than the City of Chicago
• In fact, while Chicago is admittedly larger than Tijuana*, the Windy City
recorded more homicides in 10 of the 12 months covered by this analysis
* Chicago has approximately 2.7M residents; Tijuana has approximately 1.7M residents

7. AT-BORDER SURVEYS 2008-2012: PERCEPTIONS CHANGING
• One last point: over several years, Crossborder Group has asked US-
residing border crossers coming from Tijuana to assess their perceived
security while visiting Baja CA. As seen below, there has been a
considerable shift in sentiment by US-residing border crossers
• While in 2008, around 48% indicated feeling “very” or “somewhat”
insecure, by April 2012 that number had dropped to only 16%
Survey data from Crossborder Group’s At-Border Surveys, conducted between 2008 and 2012; participants randomly selected from US- and
Mexico-residing individuals crossing northbound at San Ysidro and Otay Mesa POEs; only results for US-residing participants shown above

8. For more insights into Mexico’s security
and safety related issues; tourism; border
crossings; crossborder manufacturing,
retail, and logistics; or other issues along
and across the Mexico-US border, contact
the team at Crossborder Group…
Mexico or border questions? Hire us.
1-888-4XBORDER [888-492-6733]
www.CrossborderBusiness.com
answers@crossborderbusiness.com
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