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Financial business model simulation: test-drive your venture - Steffen Rohr
 

Financial business model simulation: test-drive your venture - Steffen Rohr

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Designing new business models requires ...

Designing new business models requires
both creativity and analysis. Creativity
brings up new ideas - preferably many of
them. But how to choose the right one?
Many innovations in the physical world, e.g.
cars, buildings, aircrafts, are already „virtually“ tested before they‘re built. During this
workshop you will learn how to „test drive“
and refine your venture via a financial business model simulation. The agenda covers
the following topics: which questions do
need to be answered, which plans are needed (cashflow vs. P&L), what is a financial
business modeling, where do the financial
numbers come from, which kind of planning
approach might be useful, and how does
this look like in practice.

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    Financial business model simulation: test-drive your venture - Steffen Rohr Financial business model simulation: test-drive your venture - Steffen Rohr Presentation Transcript

    • Try before you fly
    • Business Model Simulation
    • Profit? Capital needs? Payback time? Return on Investment? Valuation? ...
    • Balance SheetCash Flow Income Statement
    • Balance SheetCash Flow Income Statement
    • Balance SheetCash Flow Income Statement
    • Balance SheetCash Flow Income Statement
    • Better understanding of business model What assumtions lead to results? How important are they?
    • Improve decision making Interactive tool for “playing” Makes business model tangible Exploration & explanation of results Communication of business model Consider risk & uncertainty
    • www.flawofaverages.com
    • 1,800 2,000 2,200 50 100
    • Monte Carlo
    • Items sold Price per item FX rate x x = Sales
    • Items sold Price per item FX rate x x = Sales 2,012 1,152 1.06 2,449,827#1
    • Items sold Price per item FX rate x x = Sales 2,012 1,152 1.06 2,449,827#1 2,016 1,086 1.22 2,671,535#2 1,971 1,090 1.19 2,555,510#3 1,938 1,105 1.17 2,516,307#4 2,000 1,146 1.16 2,647,883#5 1,968 1,166 1.07 2,465,771#6 2,174 1,143 1.24 3,072,286#7 2,055 1,298 1.18 3,141,262#8 2,144 1,115 1.18 2,831,511#9 1,941 1,084 1.14 2,400,131#10 1,886
    • Items sold Price per item FX rate x x = Sales 1,970 1,186 1.24 2,899,259#998 2,072 1,252 1.09 2,824,524#999 1,951 1,093 1.15 2,455,838#1,000
    • Items sold Price per item FX rate x x = Sales 1,970 1,186 1.24 2,899,259#998 2,072 1,252 1.09 2,824,524#999 1,951 1,093 1.15 2,455,838#1,000 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
    • Items sold Price per item FX rate x x = Sales 1,970 1,186 1.24 2,899,259#998 2,072 1,252 1.09 2,824,524#999 1,951 1,093 1.15 2,455,838#1,000 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 On average 2.9 mill.
    • Items sold Price per item FX rate x x = Sales 1,970 1,186 1.24 2,899,259#998 2,072 1,252 1.09 2,824,524#999 1,951 1,093 1.15 2,455,838#1,000 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 On average 2.9 mill. 80% chance to be above 2.6 mill.
    • Items sold Price per item FX rate x x = Sales 1,970 1,186 1.24 2,899,259#998 2,072 1,252 1.09 2,824,524#999 1,951 1,093 1.15 2,455,838#1,000 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Little chance for more than 3.5 mill. On average 2.9 mill. 80% chance to be above 2.6 mill.
    • Balance Sheet Cash Flow Income Statement
    • Business Model Simulation
    • Business Model Simulation
    • Business Model Simulation Test business model in advance Play with assumtions Understand your business better Make business logic transparent Generate reliable numbers
    • Everything that's wrong with the common PC spreadsheet is fixed in Analytica.” “ —PC Week
    • Business Model Simulation Try before you fly