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  1. 1. Future Transport of Goods Scenarios for Europe´s future transport of goods in the Baltic Region COPENHAGEN INSTITUTE F R F U T U R E S S T U D I E SNov 2002
  2. 2. Contents The Challenge Europe in the Future Western Europe Central Europe and the Baltic Russia Collapse in Traffic Transport of goods in Europe Traffic Infrastructure in Europe Environmental impact Collapse in Traffic Future GDP and Transport of Goods New Intermodal Traffic System Intermodality Intermodal Junctions Intermodality in EuropePrepared in dialogue with Scandlines by:Kåre Stamer AndreasenSøren JensenUffe PalludanInstituttet for FremtidsforskningCopenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesNørre Farimagsgade 65DK-1364 Copenhagen KTel: +45 3311 7176E-mail: iff@iff.dkwww.iff.dkPhotos: Baunbaek, Niels Front page and page 1Second edition Nov. 2002This report has been prepared by the Copenhagen Institutefor Future Studies. The Institute is an independent privatelyfinanced research institution. The objective of the institute isto improve the basis for strategic decisions in private andpublic organisations. Since the beginning of the 90’s, theCopenhagen Institute for Future Studies has helped influencefuture traffic planning.The research of the Institute is developed concurrently withactive participation in traffic projects.The Institute’s research in traffic and intermodal junctionshas lead to the present cooperation with Scandlines.
  3. 3. The ChallengeToday, Europe has a historic opportunity to Another important point is that trafficensure peace and prosperity through cooperation. planning can be an effective regional politicalHowever, the continent’s future intra-trade, control instrument.integration and environment are threatened bya breakdown of traffic. Parts of Europe, especially It is necessary to ensure that future transportGermany, are already congested by traffic. systems will be environmentally and economicallyTherefore, it is necessary to create a sustainable. Transport of goods by ship and rail arefuture-oriented traffic system. the most environmentally friendly methods of long-distance transport of goods whereasThe traffic in Western Europe is predominantly transport by road is often more suitable for shortnorth-south-oriented. Infrastructure for handling distances. An integration of these three transportthe future transport of goods between East and systems is a prerequisite for solving future trafficWest is inadequate. However, parts of the future problems. The integration of transport systems iseast-westbound transport of goods can be not natural today.handled efficiently by a combination of differenttransport methods and alternative routes. This willestablish the preconditions for improved and Intermodal Junctionssustainable growth in the new Europe. The different means of transport can be integratedThe traffic planning of the Baltic may contribute so as to make it possible to choose and combinepositively to the development and integration of the means of transport which are optimal in theEurope. The Baltic may become the freight given situation. This can be ensured through ancorridor for a part of the east-westbound expansion of intermodal junctions and atransport of goods. The hinterland for the Baltic standardisation of the goods handling. Intermodaltransport of goods includes several of the great junctions develop where traffic flows cross andeconomies in Europe - either by a direct coastline means of transport the Baltic or by a connection with the Reloading between the different means ofEuropean trade flows. At Fehmarn Belt the transport, e.g. between train, lorry and ship, takesnorth-southbound traffic flows cross the Baltic place at intermodal junctions. Smooth intermodaleast-westbound transport routes. junctions create synergy between the differentA possible future Fehmarn Belt bridge combined means of transport and ensure the cheapest,with an east-westbound "blue motorway" may quickest and most environmental transport oftherefore become one of the future traffic goods. The prerequisite for efficiently functioningjunctions for the European transport of goods. intermodal junctions is well-developed logistics and organisation. Furthermore, the necessaryFirstly, it should be established that traffic infrastructure must be built and a number ofplanning can create a certain basis for new standards for the handling of goods must beproduction and intra-trade by eliminating established.bottlenecks.1
  4. 4. Europe in the Future The Nordic CountriesPlanning on the basis of forecasts is based on The Nordic economies are integrated with theprojections of yesterday’s structure and other Western European economies to such andevelopment. This method presupposes a extent that their development cannot be expectedcontinuous development of society. However, the to deviate considerably from the Europeandevelopment of society is far from continuous: economy as a whole. However, the location of theTrend breaks occur and structures change. Nordic countries means that, as e.g. Austria, theyPlanning should be made in acknowledgement of can benefit in particular from the development inthe fact that the future is not given, but can be Central Europe, the Baltic countries and CIS.influenced towards a desired direction. In During the past years, trading with theparticular, traffic planning can establish new other Baltic countries has grown considerably,preconditions which change the development. which is a development that can be expected toThereby, the planning of tomorrow’s transport of continue. Especially important is the formation ofgoods and infrastructure can be made in an integrated Sound region. Here, theaccordance with future demands. metropolitan centre of future is developing withIn the following, scenarios for the development more than 3 m inhabitants. Norway is a Nordicof Europe and the Baltic for the next 15 years are exception because of the great importance of theoutlined. oil. When it comes to oil, the Norwegian economy will share the same fate as other great oil producers.Western EuropeIn 2000 the GDP of Western Europe amounted to Central Europe and the Baltic CountriesUSD 9,238 bn. That was more than 1/5 of theworld’s total GDP. (All the GDP’s in this report are Central Europe includes Poland, the Czechin terms of purchasing power parity.) The Western Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Central EuropeEuropean economic growth rates have been and the Baltic countries has a total GDP of USDbetween 1.5% and 3.5% annually for the past 710bn., which is less than Spain’s GDP today.10 years. Up to the year 2015 the present EU The countries’ GDP has, however, experiencedcountries can expect moderate growth rates of higher economic growth rates than Western2-3% annually. However, the increasing integration Europe during the past years.and distribution of work in the EU make it likely Already today, Central Europe’s and the Balticthat the growth in intra-trade and transport of countries’ foreign trade is dominated by thegoods will continue the considerable growth rates trading with Western Europe. However, tradingof the 1980’s and 1990’s. This presupposes, remains low due to, among other factorshowever, that large bottlenecks are avoided. the relatively low production and prosperity in these countries. Within the next 10-15 years, the trade volume is expected to increase heavily as aGermany result of increased prosperity and participation in Europe’s future distribution of work, but the tradeGermany is Europe’s largest economy and the pattern cannot be expected to undergo greatlargest trading partner for the other 14 EU changes. It can be expected that in time, thecountries. Assuming growth in the new EU economies in the newly acceded countries to thecountries, Germany will, with its location, EU will adjust to the Western European level. Thestrengthen its position even more as the economic populations are relatively well-educated and thecentre of gravity in the EU. The country borders production facilities are undergoingon 9 European countries which has already reorganisation and modernisation. A favourablecaused traffic congestion in several parts of the likely scenario is economic growth rates of 5-6%country due to the extensive intra-trade. annually. As a result of the participation in theGermany is Europe’s large exporter of investment international distribution of work and thegoods. During a favourable economic integration in the EU, their trade and transportdevelopment in which considerable investments will grow considerably faster than GDP. Several ofin the new EU countries’ as well as Russia’s the countries’ foreign trade and internal EU tradeproduction facilities can be expected, Germany’s may experience two-figured growth rates annually.economy will therefore benefit from this at an It can be expected that Central Europe and theearlier stage than other economies. Baltic countries will experience salary increases and an adjustment to higher environmental and labour market standards. Thus, a part of the labour intensive production will be transferred to Russia and other EU areas nearby. 2
  5. 5. The Baltic Countries RussiaThe Baltic countries’ total GDP amounts to less In 2001 the GDP of Russia was approx. USD 1,120bn.than USD 60bn. which corresponds to 1/3 of which is practically the same as theSweden’s GDP. The Baltic countries’ GDP has had total GDP of the CIS, the Baltic countries andfluctuating growth rates, but on average it has Central Europe. From 1999 until 2002 theincreased by more than 5% annually for the past economic development has been very favourableyears. With the Baltic countries’ integration into with real growth rates of 5-9%. More than 40% ofthe EU, the growth rates in GDP are estimated to Russia’s exports are made to Western Europebe 5-7% for the coming years. Foreign trade can whereas 20% of imports originate in Westernbe expected to increase by 7-10% annually. Europe. Exports are dominated by energy and raw materials and imports are predominantlyThe economy of Estonia has undergone manufactures. Russia has implemented a numberrestructuring and today the private sector is of economic, political and administrative reformsresponsible for 3/4 of GDP. The service sector has for the past 10 years. A restructuring of theincreased to a total of 2/3 of GDP, but this industry production and changes in the productionhas the largest growth rates. From 1997 to 2001 facilities has taken place and Russian economyEstonia’s export of goods has increased by 84% can be trusted once again.and the import of goods has increased by 52%.Estonia’s foreign trade is dominated by the Nordic For the next 15 years, the geopoliticalcountries. Estonia differs from the other Baltic developments may make Russia and the Westcountries in that 1/3 of exports and imports involve strategic partners. Russia and the Western worldmanufacturing equipment. may be integrated, but that will require political will and courage in the EU and Russia as well asLatvia’s primary and secondary sector’s share of expansion of the necessary infrastructure.the economy has decreased, whereas the servicesector, which has experienced considerable growth, If the necessary preconditions are made available,today is responsible for more than 70% of GDP. and Russia is not exposed to large external andTransport and communication are of great internal shock effects, it is reasonable to expectimportance to the economy. Latvia’s foreign trade that Russia’s GDP will increase by 5-8% annuallyhas increased by more than 1/3 from 1997 to 2001. for the next few years. This will lead to aMore than half of Latvia’s foreign trade is with GDP in 2015 which is 2-3 times as large as in 2002.the EU. At the same time as Latvia’s trading has An important precondition for thechanged from east to west, exports of above-mentioned development is that themanufactured articles have been replaced by necessary infrastructure for future trading withexports of raw materials and semi-manufactured the EU is established.articles. Imports are dominated by manufacturingequipment. For countries which participate in regional andLithuania’s service sector has increased to a total international distribution of work, the growth inof 60% of GDP. A result of Lithuania’s location trade is bigger than the growth in GDP. With thebordering on Poland, Latvia, Kaliningrad, Belarus above-mentioned expected growth in GDP thisand the Baltic is the considerable importance of may result in a growth in the value of Russia’stransport in the service sector. Lithuania’s trading foreign trade of 7-10%. Trading with the EU can,with the EU amounts to almost half of the however, become even more extensive if thecountry’s exports and imports. A large part of the present 40% of trading with the EU increase toremaining trading is made with Central European 60-70% of Russia’s foreign trade.countries as well as the Baltic countries and CIS. Russia is still in the middle of an extensive reform process in many parts of society. A changedPoland production structure is to be expected in 15 years involving more manufactures more highPoland’s GDP increased by 6% annually during the technology, changed agricultural structure, etc.years 1993-97. Since then the GDP has increased by Extensive changes in the trading pattern can alsomore than 4% annually. In 2000 Poland’s GDP be expected in terms of more trading with theamounted to USD 328bn. A favourable scenario West and growing exports of consumer goods andfor Poland’s economic growth rate is estimated at other manufactured articles. However for a number4-5% for the coming years, by which Poland’s GDP of years, raw materials will probably dominatewill be doubled in 15 years. More than three exports with regard to volumes, but much of thequarters of Poland’s imports and exports consist energy transport will be by pipeline.of trading with manufactured articles. A total of90% of Poland’s foreign trade is made with other The development of domestic and foreignEuropean countries including Russia. For the investments will be of great importance. If largecoming years, a growth rate of 6-7% in Poland’s investments are made Russia’s foreign trade willforeign trade can be expected. The growth in be able to go from a middle scenario to a highPoland’s transport of goods will be higher due to growth scenario with two-figured growth ratesgoods in transit. for a while.3
  6. 6. Russia’s Transport of GoodsRussia’s domestic transport of goods is the EU, Caucasus and Central Asia. Therefore, itpredominantly east-westbound. Approx. 90% of might be expected that much transport of goodsthe domestic transport of goods is done by rail. in transit will pass through Russia to and fromJust a little more than 2% is done by river these areas.transport as the large Russian rivers arenorth-southbound and only navigable part of the Kaliningradyear. Russia’s physical geography is not conduciveto the extension of roads for long-distance With the enlargement of the EU to the east,transport of goods. Kaliningrad will undoubtedly be on the political agenda. Traffic policy can be an efficient regionalRussia’s railway network is long and extensive, but political control instrument which can createit lacks maintenance. The railway has a different economic growth in Kaliningrad and expand thetrack gauge than the West-European railways, so political relationship between Russia and the EU.for free transport of goods over the borders to bepossible it is necessary to think intermodally. Kaliningrad might develop into a general intermodal junction for the future east-westFor physical geographic reasons as well as historic transport of goods in the new Europe, but ofreasons, Russia is the natural connection between course that presupposes some sort of separate agreement with the EU. The harbour of Kaliningrad could be appointed aRussia’s Domestic Transport of Goods Arkhangelsk 1400 HELSINKI STOCKHOLM St Petersburg 1156 km TALLINN 650 km RÌGA Vladivostock 1333 km 7806 km Kaliningrad MOSCOW 1200 Gdañsk VILNIUS MINSK BERLIN WARSAW 1153 km KIEV PRAGUE VIENNA 1000 BUDAPEST ZAGREB LJUBLJANA BELGRADE BUCHAREST Novorossiysk SARAJEVO SOFIA 800 future junction. A possible scenario could be that 600 Baltijsk is given the status of free port, where transit goods is not cleared through customs. Furthermore, the production of Kaliningrad could be given special favourable trade terms for exports to the EU countries. This would probably 400 result in large foreign investments in production, Bn tons/km year 2001 trade and infrastructure. With its central geographical location in the 200 Baltic, Kaliningrad has good possibilities for developing into a transport junction. It would then be an ideal place for companies to locate themselves. Then Kaliningrad can develop into an economically well-functioning centre and junction 0 in the Baltic region. Reloading for further Rail Road Domestic Air ship transport of goods to and from Poland, the Baltic countries, Russia and Belarus can take place here. Further transport can, depending on distance and destination, be made by ship, rail, river transport,Source: Goskomstat of Russia lorry or air. 4
  7. 7. Transport of Goods inEurope The main part of the European transport of goods and 5%, respectively, during the period 1990-2000. takes place within Western Europe. In the period In 2000 the volume of exports and imports of 1990-2000 the volume of Western Europe’s goods increased by more than 15%, which was a exports and imports increased by 6% annually. significantly higher number than in Western Europe The volume of Western Europe’s exports and imports reached two-figured growth rates in 2000. The export of goods from Central and Eastern.Europe, CIS and the Baltic countries is low compared to that of Western Europe. However, the volume of the export and import of goods increased considerably during the extensive changeover from planned economy towards Environmental Impact market economy in the 1990’s. Thus the volume of exports and imports of goods increased by 7% The transport sector creates a large number of problems: Exhaust gasses contaminate the air and the water. This affects general health asEuropean Transport of Goods well as the climate. Transport results in many accidents and consequently personal tragedies. Transport is noisy which apart from creating irritation and stress also creates health problems. Central and Eastern To Aesthetically, many people find land-based Europe, the Baltic countries and CIS Western Europe traffic ugly. Traffic overload implicates large infrastructure costs as well as loss of income for both trade, industry and society. From The environmental impact of the different means of transport differs to a large extent. At long distances, transport by air and road has a far higher impact on the environment than Western Europe 1.654 129 transport by ship and rail. It is therefore very unfortunate that the development of the EU Central and Eastern traffic has been based on transport by road to Europe, the Baltic 147 72 the extent which has been the case. countries and CIS There are economic as well as environmental European transport of goods in bn USD Year 2000 arguments to give a higher priority to long-distance transport of goods by ship and rail.Source: WTOGrowth in the EU’s Transport The Environmental Impact of Traffic 170 205 200 160 150 Goods (2)(tkm) 150 140 Passengers (1)(pkm) 100 88 130 Euro/1000 tons km 120 50 GDP (at constant prices) Indexed 110 19 17 0 Road Rail Aviation Waterborne 100 1985 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 Upstream Process Air Pollution The growth in EU´s transport of goods is higher Urban Effects Noise than the growth in GDP and the transport of passengers. Nature & Landscape Accidents Source: European Commission 2001b Climate ChangeSource: European Commission 2001a 6
  8. 8. Scenarios for Future European European GDP and transport of goodsGDP and Transport of Goods todayEurope’s GDP and transport of goods distributedby region are shown in the following figures.The area of the circles shows the relative size ofthe GDP, and the width of the arrows shows therelative sizes of the regions transport of goods.Two scenarios for Europe’s GDP and transport ofgoods as it might look in 15 years have beenoutlined.Scenario 1 shows Europe in 15 years using acautious projection of Europe’s presentdevelopment. Western Europe’s GDP has beenprojected to increase by 2% annually. The GDP ofCentral and Eastern Europe, CIS and the Balticcountries is projected to increase by 3% annually. Source: WTO, CIAThe rate of growth within transport of goods hasbeen limited to 5% annually. This scenario isbased on the assumption that the traffic capacityfor handling potential trade and transport of Scenario 1: European GDP andgoods will be lacking in future. transport of goods in 15 yearsScenario 2 shows Europe in 15 years if thepotential is utilised and the transportationsystems work. This scenario is based on theassumption that Europe’s integration will createnew production structures and trade patterns inCentral and Eastern Europe, CIS and the Balticcountries. These countries are part of Europe’snew distribution of work, and the production iscontinuously being restructured. Therefore, theprojected rates of growth should not be seen asan expression of a linear development. Inthis scenario the GDP of Central and EasternEurope, CIS and the Baltic countries has beenprojected to increase by 6% annually. The GDP ofWestern Europe has been projected to increaseby 3% annually. This is based on the assumptionthat Western Europe will benefit from the highrates of growth in the other countries.The transport of goods has been projected toincrease by 10% annually, but merely by 6%annually within Western Europe. This scenario Scenario 2: European GDP andimplies that efficient trade and transport transport of goods insystems are established. 15 yearsA full utilisation of Europe’s growth potential requires thatefficient trade and transport systems will be established. 8
  9. 9. Flexible Planning Separation of the transport of passengers and goodsAs a consequence of the heavily increasing A contribution to the solution of Europe’stransport volumes and in recognition of how extensive traffic problems could be a technicalsignificant traffic is to growth and integration in and administrative separation of the transportthe EU, traffic and infrastructure will be put in of passengers and goods. If the separation isfocus. carried out, the present roads and line sections will have a larger capacity for the transport ofLarge public works are very passengers.time-consuming The growth in long-distance transport of goodsBuilding roads and rails is expensive as well as by road cannot be increased and shouldtime-consuming. Aiming for an extension of these therefore be transferred to efficient corridors.transport methods will therefore not realistically Especially where it is possible to establish goodssolve the traffic problems within a reasonable harbours and put ferries in service that will benumber of years, not even with the help of heavy cheaper, faster and more flexible than buildinginvestments. entirely new motorways and rail sections.The planning alone would take a year. A new intermodal transport structure mayFurthermore, it will be necessary to counteract connect and increase European transport ofthe environmental impact of the increasing goods. A future traffic system may be based onvolumes of traffic. We will probably see the intermodality and traffic junctions. The startingintroduction of more user charges, especially on point of the traffic system could be existing railtransport by road. On the whole it is to be networks, harbours, roads and rivers. Especially inexpected that to a large extent transport costs Central Europe, the Baltic countries and Russiawill reflect social costs, e.g. the environmental the existing infrastructure for transport of goodsconsequences. by rail and ship can be upgraded for increasingThat will create a large potential for transport of volumes of goods.goods by means of short sea shipping, transportby rail and transport by inland waterways.9
  10. 10. IntermodalityThrough the years, traffic planning has beendivided into sectors in most countries. That hasled to a lack of coherence, customer informationand future planning. The individual subsectorshave been working independently of each otherand have often been competing betweenthemselves. Furthermore, the individual sectors inEurope have laboured under being nationallybased. The result has been a lack of integrationand synergi between the different methods oftransport and across the borders which hascaused customer irritation as well as extensivesocial and business economic losses.Infrastructure Divided into Sectors Intermodal Infrastructure Road Road Ship Ship Rail Rail Air AirPolitically, there is a gradual realisation of the A new intermodal transport structure maynecessity of establishing a general holistic traffic create coherence and growth within transport ofplanning which runs across sectors and is based goods in the Baltic region and between Westernon cross-sector junctions. This requires an Europe and Russia. A prerequisite thatentirely new political thinking regarding traffic. intermodality will work efficiently is thatAn international connection between transport international standards are established. Theseby road, ship, rail and air must be created, and standards should apply across all sectors so that ahere intermodality is the prerequisite for it to reloading between the individual transportwork. Intermodality creates synergy and methods and between the individual countriescoherence between the different methods of can take place.transport and between the standards of the Efficient intermodal junctions require technicalvarious countries. standardisations as well as administrative simplifications. 10
  11. 11. IntermodalityFlexibility between transport methods Goods arrive by lorry Reloaded to train Reloaded to ship Transport by ship Reloaded to train Transport by train Goods delivered by lorryJunctionsReloading of goods at traffic junctions is the mostprofitable thing to do. The traffic junctions areconnected by means of a general route network.Example:If all 80 points around the Baltic are to be If, however, 6 junctions are established, they canconnected with each other, it would require 3160 be connected with each other by means of 15routes. Fig. A and B. larger routes. Fig. C.Obviously that is untenable as concerns volume,economy and environment. If a superjunction is established, the 80 points can be connected by means of 5 junctions and one superjunction with 5 superroutes. Fig. D. A B C D11
  12. 12. The Intermodal GoodsHarbour Year 2015March 17, 2015: The giant ship “Baltica”, which place at the ship’s stern and the high approachhas a capacity of 10,000 lane meter, has just ramps for the top decks are also put into place.arrived from the Russian harbour Ust-Luga at Right after this the fast trailer trucks drive up theSt Petersburg and has moored at the large ramp in order to fetch the double-stackedcontainer quay. containers one by one from the top decks.Within a few minutes the line of container cranesis removing the first containers from the top deckand lifting them onto the big conveyor whichruns across the railway track along the quay.From here the smaller cranes are ready to lift thecontainers onto the waiting goods train.At the same time the bridge leaf is lowered into 12
  13. 13. And the noise from the many trailer trucks mixes so many lorries from the roadswith the roar from the many lorries which drive onto ship and railway that once again there isoff the ferry down the bridge leaf. Inside the room on the EU roads for the still growingship there is also a lot of activities on the five number of private cars – without having todecks and the internal ramps with stacked expand the road network to such a large extentcontainers, trailers or lorries, respectively. as was feared back in the beginning of the century.After 2 1/2 hour the ship has been emptied ofcargo. One of the trains drives in the direction ofthe big traffic junction in Duisburg where trailersand containers are redistributed again ontolorries which transport the goods the finaldistance to the customers.Another train is heading for Lyon where thegoods are also reloaded onto lorries so that theycan transport the goods the final distance tothe customer.And the lorries which drove directly off the shiphave already been cleared and are headingdirectly for the customers, which typically livewithin a radius of three or four hundredkilometres from the harbour.Meanwhile the ship is being loaded. The smallcranes bring containers from the storage spaceas well as directly from the train onto theconveyor by the big cranes which in turn lift thecontainers onto the ship. Lorries drive onboardand containers which have already beendouble-stacked at the storage space are drivenon board.After six hours the ship has been loaded, thebridge leaf has been raised and the mooringshave been cast off.The approx. 100 lorry drivers are getting settledfor the night. After about 24 hours the ship willarrive in Ust-Luga where the same procedure willbe repeated.The lorries transport goods directly toSt. Petersburg whereas the greater part of thegoods headed for Moscow, is loaded ontorailway carriages. Shortly afterwards, it is thentransported via the 1000 km long broad-gaugedrailway line to Moscow where the lorries takeover once again to bring the goods all the wayto the customers.This system has now worked for some years andspread to all the large harbour junctions in theBaltic region. It has paved the way for a verysubstantial growth in the transport of goodsbetween the West and the East and has removed13
  14. 14. Baltic IntermodalJunctionsIn future the Baltic may become a freight corridor The Baltic intermodal junctions will probablyfor parts of the transport of goods between mainly be located at the large transport corridors,Eastern and Western Europe. The freight corridor especially where roads, railways and rivers meet.connects the Baltic east-westbound transport Expectations are that intermodal junctions ofroutes with the European north-southbound various sizes will be established in all countriesflow of goods. The Baltic intermodal junctions can around the connected with other intermodal junctions inEurope. Possible transport routes via the Balticmight be as follows: Duisburg – Warsaw;Paris – Moscow; Lyon – St Petersburg;London – Bratislava.Container volumes in Thousand TEUs West 1960 870 1190 Finland Norway Overseas 20430 R/R Estonia R/R Russia C Sweden C Latavia Lithuania Denmark East 960 Rus United Ireland Belarus 220 Kingdom Netherlands Poland 740 Germany Belgium Czech. Rep. Ukraine 9610 Slovakia Growth 10820 Moldavia since 1992 France Switzerland Austria Hungary Slovenia Romania Croatia Italia Bosnia Herzeg. Yugoslavia Bulgaria Macedonia Albania Portugal Spain Greece Turkey Volumes 1992 Growth 1992-2001 Source: ScandlinesThe container volumes handled in the North Sea ports are much larger than the volumes handled in the Baltic, especially in the easternBaltic. However, the growth from 1992 to 2001 (shown in blue) has proven to be remarkably stronger in the eastern Baltic with growthrates of up to 300%.The future transport of goods between north and south will cross over transport of goods between east and west in the Fehmarn Belt.An intermodal junction – a hub – could be established here for serving deep sea container carriers as well as Baltic intermodal ships,railways and lorries. 14
  15. 15. Intermodal junction at Fehmarn BeltA harbour in the hinterland of Fehmarn Belt may bridge combined with the blue motorways of thebecome an important intermodal junction in the Baltic will change the present trading structuresBaltic region. The Fehmarn Belt bridge will and transport flows.probably be under construction in 2015.Here the north-southbound transport of goods Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland’s presentand passengers will cross the Baltic large ports may develop into intermodal junctions.east-westbound transport of goods. If such a They may become part of an efficient transportsuperjunction is aimed for, the two routes will network around the Baltic which can expand thecreate a mutual synergy and growth in the existing trade flows as well as create new tradevolumes of transport. With the construction of the flows with changed trading patterns.Fehmarn Belt bridge an intermodal junction will Which of the Nordic ports will develop into futurebenefit from the traffic extension. There will be intermodal junctions will to a large extent dependlarge volumes of goods coming from the north on the interaction between politicaland the south. If extended, the intermodal decision-makers and private companies.junction can also handle considerable volumes ofEurope’s east-westbound transport of goods aswell as containers from deep sea container carriers. Russia The large oil port Primorsk and the goods portThe Nordic Intermodal Junctions Ust Luga are situated at St Petersburg. These ports will most likely play an important part in theThe development of a Baltic region can be future Baltic network of intermodal junctions.expected to result in a relatively large increase in The ports are Russia’s and St Petersburg’s directthe trade between the Nordic and the other link to the Baltic, but they are not ice-free duringBaltic countries. The preconditions will look much winter. The ports have a large hinterland anddifferent after the enlargement of the EU after good connections to Russia’s infrastructure. Thewhich the Baltic will become an integrated part of location close to Finland and Estonia enables closethe EU. Furthermore, a coming Fehmarn Belt cooperation with the ports nearby. Ice cover in the Baltic Sea WHITE SEA NORWEGIAN SEA Sankt Peterburg HELSINKI (St Petersburg) TALLINN OSLO STOCKHOLM MOSKVA (Moscow) RÌGA NORTH SEA BALTIC SEA KØBENHAVN VILNIUS (Copenhagen) Kaliningrad MINSK Hamburg WARSZAWA BERLIN (Warsaw) Average winter 1961-1990 Source: Swedish Maritime Administration
  16. 16. Kaliningrad LithuaniaThe port of Baltijsk may become an important Lithuania’s infrastructure is dominated by roads.intermodal junction connecting Western Europe A large part of the transport of goods is, however,with the Baltic and Russia as well as Eastern and made by train, especially transit goods betweenCentral Europe. A precondition is heavy Kaliningrad and Russia. Klaipeda is the largestinvestments in the expansion of the harbour and port of Lithuania. It is ice-free all year round andinfrastructure with railway, road, ship and perhaps has a railway connection to Russia. The port is anairplane. The future possibilities will among other economic free zone and is situated relatively closethings depend on the political agreements to the ports of Baltijsk and Gdansk. The locationbetween the EU and Russia in connection with the of the port in relation to freight routes andenlargement of the EU. infrastructure may increase its importance as a regional intermodal junction.PolandPoland borders on several countries and after theaccession to the EU, increased trade anddistribution of work in the surroundings are to beexpected. Poland can therefore expect a largegrowth in the future transport of goods both as aresult of its foreign trade and in the form oftransit goods. The large ports of Poland, Stettinand Gdansk, are today intermodal junctions withferry services which service the Baltic transport ofgoods.The ports’ importance as intermodal junctionsmust be expected to grow. The ports areconnected to the European river transport systemby the rivers Oder and WistaEstoniaThe capital of Estonia, Tallinn, is situated in theGulf of Finland across Helsinki. The ports nearTallinn are privatised and experience largeincreases in the volumes of goods. The ports areice-free and being modernised. It is expected thatthe port of Muuga or another of the large portswill develop into a regional intermodal junctionclosely integrated with the surrounding ports.LatviaThe ports of Latvia handle larger volumes ofgoods than the other Baltic and Russian ports inthe Baltic altogether. The ports of Ventspils,Liepaja and Riga are connected to Moscow bymeans of railway. Furthermore, Riga is connectedto Moscow by main road. When the Via Balticaroad project is completed, Finland will beconnected by road to Poland and Germany viathe Baltic countries. An intermodal junction inLatvia can connect the Baltic north-southboundtransport routes and east-westbound transportroutes between Western Europe and Russia. 16
  17. 17. Source MaterialCIA: The World Fact Book, Various Country AnalysesSource to all GDP figures in this publication.Central Intelligence Agency;Office of Public Affairs; Washington, D.C. 20505The Economist Intelligence Unit: Various CountryProfiles 2002The Economist Intelligence Unit,15 Regent St., London SW1Y 4LR, UK.European Conference of Ministers ofTransport (2002): Trends in the transportsector 1970-2000. p.23.OECD Publications Service,2 rue André Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16, FranceEuropean Conference of Ministers ofTransport (2) (2002): Trends in the transportsector 1970-2000. p.53- 55.OECD Publications Service,2 rue André Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16, FranceEuropean Commission. Directorate-Generalfor Energy and Transport, in co-operation withEurostat (2001a): European Union:Energy and Transport in Figures 2001. Table 3.1.1.The Office for Official Publications of the EuropeanCommunities, 2, rue Mercier, L-2985 LuxembourgEuropean Commission (2001b). White Paper:European Transport Policy for 2010:Time to Decide. Figure 3, p. 112.The Office for Official Publications of the EuropeanCommunities, 2, rue Mercier, L-2985 LuxembourgGOSKOMSTAT OF RUSSIA (2002):Handbook "RUSSIA 2002". Table:Transportation and Turnover of Goods byGeneral-Purpose Transport Types.Goskomstat, Moscow, Myasnitskaya st. 39.Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning (2002):FremtidsOrientering No. 1;Trafik og fremtidsforskning.Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning,Nørre Farimagsgade 65, 1364 København KOECD (2002): OECD Economic Surveys 2001-2002,Various Country SurveysOECD Publications,2, rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France.WTO Statistics Division (2001):International Trade Statistics 2001.WTO Publications, WTO, 154, rue de Lausanne,CH-1211 Geneva 21.17