Future Transport of Goods
                Scenarios for Europe´s
                    future transport of
                                                                   The Challenge

The Challenge

Today, Europe has a historic opportunity to           Another important point is that traffic
ensure peace ...
Europe in the Future                                   The Nordic Countries

Planning on the basis of forecasts is based ...
The Baltic Countries                                    Russia

The Baltic countries’ total GDP amounts to less         In...
Russia’s Transport of Goods
Russia’s domestic transport of goods is                          the EU, Caucasus and Central ...
Transport of Goods in
 The main part of the European transport of goods                                            ...
Scenarios for Future European                                    European GDP and transport of goods
GDP and Transport of ...
Flexible Planning                                     Separation of the transport of
Through the years, traffic planning has been
divided into sectors in most countries. That has
led to a lack ...
Flexibility between transport methods

     Goods arrive by lorry                     Reloaded to train  ...
The Intermodal Goods
Harbour Year 2015
March 17, 2015: The giant ship “Baltica”, which      place at the ship’s stern and ...
And the noise from the many trailer trucks mixes      so many lorries from the roads
with the roar from the many lorries w...
Baltic Intermodal
In future the Baltic may become a freight corridor                             The Baltic inte...
Intermodal junction at Fehmarn Belt

A harbour in the hinterland of Fehmarn Belt may                            bridge com...
Kaliningrad                                            Lithuania

The port of Baltijsk may become an important           L...
Source Material

CIA: The World Fact Book, Various Country Analyses
Source to all GDP figures in this publication.
Future transporof goodsreport
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Future transporof goodsreport

  1. 1. Future Transport of Goods Scenarios for Europe´s future transport of goods in the Baltic Region COPENHAGEN INSTITUTE F R F U T U R E S S T U D I E S Nov 2002
  2. 2. Contents The Challenge Europe in the Future Western Europe Central Europe and the Baltic Russia Collapse in Traffic Transport of goods in Europe Traffic Infrastructure in Europe Environmental impact Collapse in Traffic Future GDP and Transport of Goods New Intermodal Traffic System Intermodality Intermodal Junctions Intermodality in Europe Prepared in dialogue with Scandlines by: Kåre Stamer Andreasen Søren Jensen Uffe Palludan Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Nørre Farimagsgade 65 DK-1364 Copenhagen K Tel: +45 3311 7176 E-mail: iff@iff.dk www.iff.dk Photos: Baunbaek, Niels Front page and page 1 Second edition Nov. 2002 This report has been prepared by the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies. The Institute is an independent privately financed research institution. The objective of the institute is to improve the basis for strategic decisions in private and public organisations. Since the beginning of the 90’s, the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies has helped influence future traffic planning. The research of the Institute is developed concurrently with active participation in traffic projects. The Institute’s research in traffic and intermodal junctions has lead to the present cooperation with Scandlines.
  3. 3. The Challenge Today, Europe has a historic opportunity to Another important point is that traffic ensure peace and prosperity through cooperation. planning can be an effective regional political However, the continent’s future intra-trade, control instrument. integration and environment are threatened by a breakdown of traffic. Parts of Europe, especially It is necessary to ensure that future transport Germany, are already congested by traffic. systems will be environmentally and economically Therefore, it is necessary to create a sustainable. Transport of goods by ship and rail are future-oriented traffic system. the most environmentally friendly methods of long-distance transport of goods whereas The traffic in Western Europe is predominantly transport by road is often more suitable for short north-south-oriented. Infrastructure for handling distances. An integration of these three transport the future transport of goods between East and systems is a prerequisite for solving future traffic West is inadequate. However, parts of the future problems. The integration of transport systems is east-westbound transport of goods can be not natural today. handled efficiently by a combination of different transport methods and alternative routes. This will establish the preconditions for improved and Intermodal Junctions sustainable growth in the new Europe. The different means of transport can be integrated The traffic planning of the Baltic may contribute so as to make it possible to choose and combine positively to the development and integration of the means of transport which are optimal in the Europe. The Baltic may become the freight given situation. This can be ensured through an corridor for a part of the east-westbound expansion of intermodal junctions and a transport of goods. The hinterland for the Baltic standardisation of the goods handling. Intermodal transport of goods includes several of the great junctions develop where traffic flows cross and economies in Europe - either by a direct coastline means of transport meet. to the Baltic or by a connection with the Reloading between the different means of European trade flows. At Fehmarn Belt the transport, e.g. between train, lorry and ship, takes north-southbound traffic flows cross the Baltic place at intermodal junctions. Smooth intermodal east-westbound transport routes. junctions create synergy between the different A possible future Fehmarn Belt bridge combined means of transport and ensure the cheapest, with an east-westbound "blue motorway" may quickest and most environmental transport of therefore become one of the future traffic goods. The prerequisite for efficiently functioning junctions for the European transport of goods. intermodal junctions is well-developed logistics and organisation. Furthermore, the necessary Firstly, it should be established that traffic infrastructure must be built and a number of planning can create a certain basis for new standards for the handling of goods must be production and intra-trade by eliminating established. bottlenecks. 1
  4. 4. Europe in the Future The Nordic Countries Planning on the basis of forecasts is based on The Nordic economies are integrated with the projections of yesterday’s structure and other Western European economies to such an development. This method presupposes a extent that their development cannot be expected continuous development of society. However, the to deviate considerably from the European development of society is far from continuous: economy as a whole. However, the location of the Trend breaks occur and structures change. Nordic countries means that, as e.g. Austria, they Planning should be made in acknowledgement of can benefit in particular from the development in the fact that the future is not given, but can be Central Europe, the Baltic countries and CIS. influenced towards a desired direction. In During the past years, trading with the particular, traffic planning can establish new other Baltic countries has grown considerably, preconditions which change the development. which is a development that can be expected to Thereby, the planning of tomorrow’s transport of continue. Especially important is the formation of goods and infrastructure can be made in an integrated Sound region. Here, the accordance with future demands. metropolitan centre of future is developing with In the following, scenarios for the development more than 3 m inhabitants. Norway is a Nordic of Europe and the Baltic for the next 15 years are exception because of the great importance of the outlined. oil. When it comes to oil, the Norwegian economy will share the same fate as other great oil producers. Western Europe In 2000 the GDP of Western Europe amounted to Central Europe and the Baltic Countries USD 9,238 bn. That was more than 1/5 of the world’s total GDP. (All the GDP’s in this report are Central Europe includes Poland, the Czech in terms of purchasing power parity.) The Western Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Central Europe European economic growth rates have been and the Baltic countries has a total GDP of USD between 1.5% and 3.5% annually for the past 710bn., which is less than Spain’s GDP today. 10 years. Up to the year 2015 the present EU The countries’ GDP has, however, experienced countries can expect moderate growth rates of higher economic growth rates than Western 2-3% annually. However, the increasing integration Europe during the past years. and distribution of work in the EU make it likely Already today, Central Europe’s and the Baltic that the growth in intra-trade and transport of countries’ foreign trade is dominated by the goods will continue the considerable growth rates trading with Western Europe. However, trading of the 1980’s and 1990’s. This presupposes, remains low due to, among other factors however, that large bottlenecks are avoided. the relatively low production and prosperity in these countries. Within the next 10-15 years, the trade volume is expected to increase heavily as a Germany result of increased prosperity and participation in Europe’s future distribution of work, but the trade Germany is Europe’s largest economy and the pattern cannot be expected to undergo great largest trading partner for the other 14 EU changes. It can be expected that in time, the countries. Assuming growth in the new EU economies in the newly acceded countries to the countries, Germany will, with its location, EU will adjust to the Western European level. The strengthen its position even more as the economic populations are relatively well-educated and the centre of gravity in the EU. The country borders production facilities are undergoing on 9 European countries which has already reorganisation and modernisation. A favourable caused traffic congestion in several parts of the likely scenario is economic growth rates of 5-6% country due to the extensive intra-trade. annually. As a result of the participation in the Germany is Europe’s large exporter of investment international distribution of work and the goods. During a favourable economic integration in the EU, their trade and transport development in which considerable investments will grow considerably faster than GDP. Several of in the new EU countries’ as well as Russia’s the countries’ foreign trade and internal EU trade production facilities can be expected, Germany’s may experience two-figured growth rates annually. economy will therefore benefit from this at an It can be expected that Central Europe and the earlier stage than other economies. Baltic countries will experience salary increases and an adjustment to higher environmental and labour market standards. Thus, a part of the labour intensive production will be transferred to Russia and other EU areas nearby. 2
  5. 5. The Baltic Countries Russia The Baltic countries’ total GDP amounts to less In 2001 the GDP of Russia was approx. USD 1,120bn. than USD 60bn. which corresponds to 1/3 of which is practically the same as the Sweden’s GDP. The Baltic countries’ GDP has had total GDP of the CIS, the Baltic countries and fluctuating growth rates, but on average it has Central Europe. From 1999 until 2002 the increased by more than 5% annually for the past economic development has been very favourable years. With the Baltic countries’ integration into with real growth rates of 5-9%. More than 40% of the EU, the growth rates in GDP are estimated to Russia’s exports are made to Western Europe be 5-7% for the coming years. Foreign trade can whereas 20% of imports originate in Western be expected to increase by 7-10% annually. Europe. Exports are dominated by energy and raw materials and imports are predominantly The economy of Estonia has undergone manufactures. Russia has implemented a number restructuring and today the private sector is of economic, political and administrative reforms responsible for 3/4 of GDP. The service sector has for the past 10 years. A restructuring of the increased to a total of 2/3 of GDP, but this industry production and changes in the production has the largest growth rates. From 1997 to 2001 facilities has taken place and Russian economy Estonia’s export of goods has increased by 84% can be trusted once again. and the import of goods has increased by 52%. Estonia’s foreign trade is dominated by the Nordic For the next 15 years, the geopolitical countries. Estonia differs from the other Baltic developments may make Russia and the West countries in that 1/3 of exports and imports involve strategic partners. Russia and the Western world manufacturing equipment. may be integrated, but that will require political will and courage in the EU and Russia as well as Latvia’s primary and secondary sector’s share of expansion of the necessary infrastructure. the economy has decreased, whereas the service sector, which has experienced considerable growth, If the necessary preconditions are made available, today is responsible for more than 70% of GDP. and Russia is not exposed to large external and Transport and communication are of great internal shock effects, it is reasonable to expect importance to the economy. Latvia’s foreign trade that Russia’s GDP will increase by 5-8% annually has increased by more than 1/3 from 1997 to 2001. for the next few years. This will lead to a More than half of Latvia’s foreign trade is with GDP in 2015 which is 2-3 times as large as in 2002. the EU. At the same time as Latvia’s trading has An important precondition for the changed from east to west, exports of above-mentioned development is that the manufactured articles have been replaced by necessary infrastructure for future trading with exports of raw materials and semi-manufactured the EU is established. articles. Imports are dominated by manufacturing equipment. For countries which participate in regional and Lithuania’s service sector has increased to a total international distribution of work, the growth in of 60% of GDP. A result of Lithuania’s location trade is bigger than the growth in GDP. With the bordering on Poland, Latvia, Kaliningrad, Belarus above-mentioned expected growth in GDP this and the Baltic is the considerable importance of may result in a growth in the value of Russia’s transport in the service sector. Lithuania’s trading foreign trade of 7-10%. Trading with the EU can, with the EU amounts to almost half of the however, become even more extensive if the country’s exports and imports. A large part of the present 40% of trading with the EU increase to remaining trading is made with Central European 60-70% of Russia’s foreign trade. countries as well as the Baltic countries and CIS. Russia is still in the middle of an extensive reform process in many parts of society. A changed Poland production structure is to be expected in 15 years involving more manufactures more high Poland’s GDP increased by 6% annually during the technology, changed agricultural structure, etc. years 1993-97. Since then the GDP has increased by Extensive changes in the trading pattern can also more than 4% annually. In 2000 Poland’s GDP be expected in terms of more trading with the amounted to USD 328bn. A favourable scenario West and growing exports of consumer goods and for Poland’s economic growth rate is estimated at other manufactured articles. However for a number 4-5% for the coming years, by which Poland’s GDP of years, raw materials will probably dominate will be doubled in 15 years. More than three exports with regard to volumes, but much of the quarters of Poland’s imports and exports consist energy transport will be by pipeline. of trading with manufactured articles. A total of 90% of Poland’s foreign trade is made with other The development of domestic and foreign European countries including Russia. For the investments will be of great importance. If large coming years, a growth rate of 6-7% in Poland’s investments are made Russia’s foreign trade will foreign trade can be expected. The growth in be able to go from a middle scenario to a high Poland’s transport of goods will be higher due to growth scenario with two-figured growth rates goods in transit. for a while. 3
  6. 6. Russia’s Transport of Goods Russia’s domestic transport of goods is the EU, Caucasus and Central Asia. Therefore, it predominantly east-westbound. Approx. 90% of might be expected that much transport of goods the domestic transport of goods is done by rail. in transit will pass through Russia to and from Just a little more than 2% is done by river these areas. transport as the large Russian rivers are north-southbound and only navigable part of the Kaliningrad year. Russia’s physical geography is not conducive to the extension of roads for long-distance With the enlargement of the EU to the east, transport of goods. Kaliningrad will undoubtedly be on the political agenda. Traffic policy can be an efficient regional Russia’s railway network is long and extensive, but political control instrument which can create it lacks maintenance. The railway has a different economic growth in Kaliningrad and expand the track gauge than the West-European railways, so political relationship between Russia and the EU. for free transport of goods over the borders to be possible it is necessary to think intermodally. Kaliningrad might develop into a general intermodal junction for the future east-west For physical geographic reasons as well as historic transport of goods in the new Europe, but of reasons, Russia is the natural connection between course that presupposes some sort of separate agreement with the EU. The harbour of Kaliningrad could be appointed a Russia’s Domestic Transport of Goods Arkhangel'sk 1400 HELSINKI STOCKHOLM St Petersburg 1156 km TALLINN 650 km RÌGA Vladivostock 1333 km 7806 km Kaliningrad MOSCOW 1200 Gdañsk VILNIUS MINSK BERLIN WARSAW 1153 km KIEV PRAGUE VIENNA 1000 BUDAPEST ZAGREB LJUBLJANA BELGRADE BUCHAREST Novorossiysk SARAJEVO SOFIA 800 future junction. A possible scenario could be that 600 Baltijsk is given the status of free port, where transit goods is not cleared through customs. Furthermore, the production of Kaliningrad could be given special favourable trade terms for exports to the EU countries. This would probably 400 result in large foreign investments in production, Bn tons/km year 2001 trade and infrastructure. With its central geographical location in the 200 Baltic, Kaliningrad has good possibilities for developing into a transport junction. It would then be an ideal place for companies to locate themselves. Then Kaliningrad can develop into an economically well-functioning centre and junction 0 in the Baltic region. Reloading for further Rail Road Domestic Air ship transport of goods to and from Poland, the Baltic countries, Russia and Belarus can take place here. Further transport can, depending on distance and destination, be made by ship, rail, river transport, Source: Goskomstat of Russia lorry or air. 4
  7. 7. Transport of Goods in Europe The main part of the European transport of goods and 5%, respectively, during the period 1990-2000. takes place within Western Europe. In the period In 2000 the volume of exports and imports of 1990-2000 the volume of Western Europe’s goods increased by more than 15%, which was a exports and imports increased by 6% annually. significantly higher number than in Western Europe The volume of Western Europe’s exports and imports reached two-figured growth rates in 2000. The export of goods from Central and Eastern .Europe, CIS and the Baltic countries is low compared to that of Western Europe. However, the volume of the export and import of goods increased considerably during the extensive changeover from planned economy towards Environmental Impact market economy in the 1990’s. Thus the volume of exports and imports of goods increased by 7% The transport sector creates a large number of problems: Exhaust gasses contaminate the air and the water. This affects general health as European Transport of Goods well as the climate. Transport results in many accidents and consequently personal tragedies. Transport is noisy which apart from creating irritation and stress also creates health problems. Central and Eastern To Aesthetically, many people find land-based Europe, the Baltic countries and CIS Western Europe traffic ugly. Traffic overload implicates large infrastructure costs as well as loss of income for both trade, industry and society. From The environmental impact of the different means of transport differs to a large extent. At long distances, transport by air and road has a far higher impact on the environment than Western Europe 1.654 129 transport by ship and rail. It is therefore very unfortunate that the development of the EU Central and Eastern traffic has been based on transport by road to Europe, the Baltic 147 72 the extent which has been the case. countries and CIS There are economic as well as environmental European transport of goods in bn USD Year 2000 arguments to give a higher priority to long-distance transport of goods by ship and rail. Source: WTO Growth in the EU’s Transport The Environmental Impact of Traffic 170 205 200 160 150 Goods (2)(tkm) 150 140 Passengers (1)(pkm) 100 88 130 Euro/1000 tons km 120 50 GDP (at constant prices) Indexed 110 19 17 0 Road Rail Aviation Waterborne 100 1985 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 Upstream Process Air Pollution The growth in EU´s transport of goods is higher Urban Effects Noise than the growth in GDP and the transport of passengers. Nature & Landscape Accidents Source: European Commission 2001b Climate Change Source: European Commission 2001a 6
  8. 8. Scenarios for Future European European GDP and transport of goods GDP and Transport of Goods today Europe’s GDP and transport of goods distributed by region are shown in the following figures. The area of the circles shows the relative size of the GDP, and the width of the arrows shows the relative sizes of the regions' transport of goods. Two scenarios for Europe’s GDP and transport of goods as it might look in 15 years have been outlined. Scenario 1 shows Europe in 15 years using a cautious projection of Europe’s present development. Western Europe’s GDP has been projected to increase by 2% annually. The GDP of Central and Eastern Europe, CIS and the Baltic countries is projected to increase by 3% annually. Source: WTO, CIA The rate of growth within transport of goods has been limited to 5% annually. This scenario is based on the assumption that the traffic capacity for handling potential trade and transport of Scenario 1: European GDP and goods will be lacking in future. transport of goods in 15 years Scenario 2 shows Europe in 15 years if the potential is utilised and the transportation systems work. This scenario is based on the assumption that Europe’s integration will create new production structures and trade patterns in Central and Eastern Europe, CIS and the Baltic countries. These countries are part of Europe’s new distribution of work, and the production is continuously being restructured. Therefore, the projected rates of growth should not be seen as an expression of a linear development. In this scenario the GDP of Central and Eastern Europe, CIS and the Baltic countries has been projected to increase by 6% annually. The GDP of Western Europe has been projected to increase by 3% annually. This is based on the assumption that Western Europe will benefit from the high rates of growth in the other countries. The transport of goods has been projected to increase by 10% annually, but merely by 6% annually within Western Europe. This scenario Scenario 2: European GDP and implies that efficient trade and transport transport of goods in systems are established. 15 years A full utilisation of Europe’s growth potential requires that efficient trade and transport systems will be established. 8
  9. 9. Flexible Planning Separation of the transport of passengers and goods As a consequence of the heavily increasing A contribution to the solution of Europe’s transport volumes and in recognition of how extensive traffic problems could be a technical significant traffic is to growth and integration in and administrative separation of the transport the EU, traffic and infrastructure will be put in of passengers and goods. If the separation is focus. carried out, the present roads and line sections will have a larger capacity for the transport of Large public works are very passengers. time-consuming The growth in long-distance transport of goods Building roads and rails is expensive as well as by road cannot be increased and should time-consuming. Aiming for an extension of these therefore be transferred to efficient corridors. transport methods will therefore not realistically Especially where it is possible to establish goods solve the traffic problems within a reasonable harbours and put ferries in service that will be number of years, not even with the help of heavy cheaper, faster and more flexible than building investments. entirely new motorways and rail sections. The planning alone would take a year. A new intermodal transport structure may Furthermore, it will be necessary to counteract connect and increase European transport of the environmental impact of the increasing goods. A future traffic system may be based on volumes of traffic. We will probably see the intermodality and traffic junctions. The starting introduction of more user charges, especially on point of the traffic system could be existing rail transport by road. On the whole it is to be networks, harbours, roads and rivers. Especially in expected that to a large extent transport costs Central Europe, the Baltic countries and Russia will reflect social costs, e.g. the environmental the existing infrastructure for transport of goods consequences. by rail and ship can be upgraded for increasing That will create a large potential for transport of volumes of goods. goods by means of short sea shipping, transport by rail and transport by inland waterways. 9
  10. 10. Intermodality Through the years, traffic planning has been divided into sectors in most countries. That has led to a lack of coherence, customer information and future planning. The individual subsectors have been working independently of each other and have often been competing between themselves. Furthermore, the individual sectors in Europe have laboured under being nationally based. The result has been a lack of integration and synergi between the different methods of transport and across the borders which has caused customer irritation as well as extensive social and business economic losses. Infrastructure Divided into Sectors Intermodal Infrastructure Road Road Ship Ship Rail Rail Air Air Politically, there is a gradual realisation of the A new intermodal transport structure may necessity of establishing a general holistic traffic create coherence and growth within transport of planning which runs across sectors and is based goods in the Baltic region and between Western on cross-sector junctions. This requires an Europe and Russia. A prerequisite that entirely new political thinking regarding traffic. intermodality will work efficiently is that An international connection between transport international standards are established. These by road, ship, rail and air must be created, and standards should apply across all sectors so that a here intermodality is the prerequisite for it to reloading between the individual transport work. Intermodality creates synergy and methods and between the individual countries coherence between the different methods of can take place. transport and between the standards of the Efficient intermodal junctions require technical various countries. standardisations as well as administrative simplifications. 10
  11. 11. Intermodality Flexibility between transport methods Goods arrive by lorry Reloaded to train Reloaded to ship Transport by ship Reloaded to train Transport by train Goods delivered by lorry Junctions Reloading of goods at traffic junctions is the most profitable thing to do. The traffic junctions are connected by means of a general route network. Example: If all 80 points around the Baltic are to be If, however, 6 junctions are established, they can connected with each other, it would require 3160 be connected with each other by means of 15 routes. Fig. A and B. larger routes. Fig. C. Obviously that is untenable as concerns volume, economy and environment. If a superjunction is established, the 80 points can be connected by means of 5 junctions and one superjunction with 5 superroutes. Fig. D. A B C D 11
  12. 12. The Intermodal Goods Harbour Year 2015 March 17, 2015: The giant ship “Baltica”, which place at the ship’s stern and the high approach has a capacity of 10,000 lane meter, has just ramps for the top decks are also put into place. arrived from the Russian harbour Ust-Luga at Right after this the fast trailer trucks drive up the St Petersburg and has moored at the large ramp in order to fetch the double-stacked container quay. containers one by one from the top decks. Within a few minutes the line of container cranes is removing the first containers from the top deck and lifting them onto the big conveyor which runs across the railway track along the quay. From here the smaller cranes are ready to lift the containers onto the waiting goods train. At the same time the bridge leaf is lowered into 12
  13. 13. And the noise from the many trailer trucks mixes so many lorries from the roads with the roar from the many lorries which drive onto ship and railway that once again there is off the ferry down the bridge leaf. Inside the room on the EU roads for the still growing ship there is also a lot of activities on the five number of private cars – without having to decks and the internal ramps with stacked expand the road network to such a large extent containers, trailers or lorries, respectively. as was feared back in the beginning of the century. After 2 1/2 hour the ship has been emptied of cargo. One of the trains drives in the direction of the big traffic junction in Duisburg where trailers and containers are redistributed again onto lorries which transport the goods the final distance to the customers. Another train is heading for Lyon where the goods are also reloaded onto lorries so that they can transport the goods the final distance to the customer. And the lorries which drove directly off the ship have already been cleared and are heading directly for the customers, which typically live within a radius of three or four hundred kilometres from the harbour. Meanwhile the ship is being loaded. The small cranes bring containers from the storage space as well as directly from the train onto the conveyor by the big cranes which in turn lift the containers onto the ship. Lorries drive onboard and containers which have already been double-stacked at the storage space are driven on board. After six hours the ship has been loaded, the bridge leaf has been raised and the moorings have been cast off. The approx. 100 lorry drivers are getting settled for the night. After about 24 hours the ship will arrive in Ust-Luga where the same procedure will be repeated. The lorries transport goods directly to St. Petersburg whereas the greater part of the goods headed for Moscow, is loaded onto railway carriages. Shortly afterwards, it is then transported via the 1000 km long broad-gauged railway line to Moscow where the lorries take over once again to bring the goods all the way to the customers. This system has now worked for some years and spread to all the large harbour junctions in the Baltic region. It has paved the way for a very substantial growth in the transport of goods between the West and the East and has removed 13
  14. 14. Baltic Intermodal Junctions In future the Baltic may become a freight corridor The Baltic intermodal junctions will probably for parts of the transport of goods between mainly be located at the large transport corridors, Eastern and Western Europe. The freight corridor especially where roads, railways and rivers meet. connects the Baltic east-westbound transport Expectations are that intermodal junctions of routes with the European north-southbound various sizes will be established in all countries flow of goods. The Baltic intermodal junctions can around the Baltic. be connected with other intermodal junctions in Europe. Possible transport routes via the Baltic might be as follows: Duisburg – Warsaw; Paris – Moscow; Lyon – St Petersburg; London – Bratislava. Container volumes in Thousand TEUs West 1960 870 1190 Finland Norway Overseas 20430 R/R Estonia R/R Russia C Sweden C Latavia Lithuania Denmark East 960 Rus United Ireland Belarus 220 Kingdom Netherlands Poland 740 Germany Belgium Czech. Rep. Ukraine 9610 Slovakia Growth 10820 Moldavia since 1992 France Switzerland Austria Hungary Slovenia Romania Croatia Italia Bosnia Herzeg. Yugoslavia Bulgaria Macedonia Albania Portugal Spain Greece Turkey Volumes 1992 Growth 1992-2001 Source: Scandlines The container volumes handled in the North Sea ports are much larger than the volumes handled in the Baltic, especially in the eastern Baltic. However, the growth from 1992 to 2001 (shown in blue) has proven to be remarkably stronger in the eastern Baltic with growth rates of up to 300%. The future transport of goods between north and south will cross over transport of goods between east and west in the Fehmarn Belt. An intermodal junction – a hub – could be established here for serving deep sea container carriers as well as Baltic intermodal ships, railways and lorries. 14
  15. 15. Intermodal junction at Fehmarn Belt A harbour in the hinterland of Fehmarn Belt may bridge combined with the blue motorways of the become an important intermodal junction in the Baltic will change the present trading structures Baltic region. The Fehmarn Belt bridge will and transport flows. probably be under construction in 2015. Here the north-southbound transport of goods Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland’s present and passengers will cross the Baltic large ports may develop into intermodal junctions. east-westbound transport of goods. If such a They may become part of an efficient transport superjunction is aimed for, the two routes will network around the Baltic which can expand the create a mutual synergy and growth in the existing trade flows as well as create new trade volumes of transport. With the construction of the flows with changed trading patterns. Fehmarn Belt bridge an intermodal junction will Which of the Nordic ports will develop into future benefit from the traffic extension. There will be intermodal junctions will to a large extent depend large volumes of goods coming from the north on the interaction between political and the south. If extended, the intermodal decision-makers and private companies. junction can also handle considerable volumes of Europe’s east-westbound transport of goods as well as containers from deep sea container carriers. Russia The large oil port Primorsk and the goods port The Nordic Intermodal Junctions Ust Luga are situated at St Petersburg. These ports will most likely play an important part in the The development of a Baltic region can be future Baltic network of intermodal junctions. expected to result in a relatively large increase in The ports are Russia’s and St Petersburg’s direct the trade between the Nordic and the other link to the Baltic, but they are not ice-free during Baltic countries. The preconditions will look much winter. The ports have a large hinterland and different after the enlargement of the EU after good connections to Russia’s infrastructure. The which the Baltic will become an integrated part of location close to Finland and Estonia enables close the EU. Furthermore, a coming Fehmarn Belt cooperation with the ports nearby. Ice cover in the Baltic Sea WHITE SEA NORWEGIAN SEA Sankt Peterburg HELSINKI (St Petersburg) TALLINN OSLO STOCKHOLM MOSKVA (Moscow) RÌGA NORTH SEA BALTIC SEA KØBENHAVN VILNIUS (Copenhagen) Kaliningrad MINSK Hamburg WARSZAWA BERLIN (Warsaw) Average winter 1961-1990 Source: Swedish Maritime Administration
  16. 16. Kaliningrad Lithuania The port of Baltijsk may become an important Lithuania’s infrastructure is dominated by roads. intermodal junction connecting Western Europe A large part of the transport of goods is, however, with the Baltic and Russia as well as Eastern and made by train, especially transit goods between Central Europe. A precondition is heavy Kaliningrad and Russia. Klaipeda is the largest investments in the expansion of the harbour and port of Lithuania. It is ice-free all year round and infrastructure with railway, road, ship and perhaps has a railway connection to Russia. The port is an airplane. The future possibilities will among other economic free zone and is situated relatively close things depend on the political agreements to the ports of Baltijsk and Gdansk. The location between the EU and Russia in connection with the of the port in relation to freight routes and enlargement of the EU. infrastructure may increase its importance as a regional intermodal junction. Poland Poland borders on several countries and after the accession to the EU, increased trade and distribution of work in the surroundings are to be expected. Poland can therefore expect a large growth in the future transport of goods both as a result of its foreign trade and in the form of transit goods. The large ports of Poland, Stettin and Gdansk, are today intermodal junctions with ferry services which service the Baltic transport of goods. The ports’ importance as intermodal junctions must be expected to grow. The ports are connected to the European river transport system by the rivers Oder and Wista Estonia The capital of Estonia, Tallinn, is situated in the Gulf of Finland across Helsinki. The ports near Tallinn are privatised and experience large increases in the volumes of goods. The ports are ice-free and being modernised. It is expected that the port of Muuga or another of the large ports will develop into a regional intermodal junction closely integrated with the surrounding ports. Latvia The ports of Latvia handle larger volumes of goods than the other Baltic and Russian ports in the Baltic altogether. The ports of Ventspils, Liepaja and Riga are connected to Moscow by means of railway. Furthermore, Riga is connected to Moscow by main road. When the Via Baltica road project is completed, Finland will be connected by road to Poland and Germany via the Baltic countries. An intermodal junction in Latvia can connect the Baltic north-southbound transport routes and east-westbound transport routes between Western Europe and Russia. 16
  17. 17. Source Material CIA: The World Fact Book, Various Country Analyses Source to all GDP figures in this publication. Central Intelligence Agency; Office of Public Affairs; Washington, D.C. 20505 The Economist Intelligence Unit: Various Country Profiles 2002 The Economist Intelligence Unit, 15 Regent St., London SW1Y 4LR, UK. European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2002): Trends in the transport sector 1970-2000. p.23. OECD Publications Service, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16, France European Conference of Ministers of Transport (2) (2002): Trends in the transport sector 1970-2000. p.53- 55. OECD Publications Service, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16, France European Commission. Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, in co-operation with Eurostat (2001a): European Union: Energy and Transport in Figures 2001. Table 3.1.1. The Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2, rue Mercier, L-2985 Luxembourg European Commission (2001b). White Paper: European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to Decide. Figure 3, p. 112. The Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2, rue Mercier, L-2985 Luxembourg GOSKOMSTAT OF RUSSIA (2002): Handbook "RUSSIA 2002". Table: Transportation and Turnover of Goods by General-Purpose Transport Types. Goskomstat, Moscow, Myasnitskaya st. 39. Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning (2002): FremtidsOrientering No. 1; Trafik og fremtidsforskning. Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning, Nørre Farimagsgade 65, 1364 København K OECD (2002): OECD Economic Surveys 2001-2002, Various Country Surveys OECD Publications, 2, rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France. WTO Statistics Division (2001): International Trade Statistics 2001. WTO Publications, WTO, 154, rue de Lausanne, CH-1211 Geneva 21. 17