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Hayhoe Climate

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  • 1. a climate for change !WHAT ISHAPPENING TOOUR WORLD …AND WHAT CANWE DO ABOUT IT? !K AT H A R I N E H AY H O E
  • 2. America’s first climate refugees: ALASKA
  • 3. Frozen ground is melting & eroding The people of Newtok, AK have already been driven from their homes. Kivalina may be next.
  • 4. What is happening to our world? !" # $ % & (%
  • 5. The Earth is getting warmer … 9 of last 10 years warmest on record 2000s: warmest decade on record
  • 6. … despite recent claims of “cooling”
  • 7. It’s happening faster and faster
  • 8. And this is just a fraction of total heating.
  • 9. Sea level is rising, as ice sheets melt
  • 10. Arctic sea ice is shrinking !! !"##$%&$(&)*$&$+,$-,&.$*%$($.&/01234&56$%&7(,&83&9%& !! :*$1;%$$&"##$%&7)<$79&*5##5-&=),>)-&?&.$*(.$&
  • 11. Too much water, as glaciers melt 1922 1992 Blomstrandbrennen Glacier in Norway
  • 12. Too much water, as glaciers melt Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand
  • 13. Too much water, as glaciers melt Orubare Glacier, Uganda
  • 14. Too much water, as glaciers melt ,-,.% )**+% Shepard Glacier, Glacier National Park, USA When the park was created: over 150 glaciers In 2005: 27 glaciers remaining
  • 15. Too much water, as glaciers melt The Rhone glacier in the Bernese Oberland, Switzerland
  • 16. Not enough water, as others are in drought Central Africa
  • 17. Ecosystems shifting, as temperatures warm Where you live today feels like it used to ~200 miles south, just 25 years ago.
  • 18. Our world is changing @ABC:@B&!DB:EF& C)7(*G&>5-$9"*<7$G&(-.&5,>$%& >(%H)-I$%&5;&J%)-I&(%$&K5=$%)-I& /12&=$$<&$(%7)$%&)-&,>$&9$(%L&
  • 19. Our world is changing !M:NO:EF&PBQD!&AER&DCAEO!& P$-,$%&5;&H7"$H$%%9&J%5."*S5-&>(&>)T$.& -5%,>=(%.G&;%5#&U()-$&,5&V"$H$*L&
  • 20. Our world is changing @WOB@U@&M@AO& B$*5%.&>)I>&,$#J$%(,"%$&(-.& >$(,&=(6$&2+&#5%$&;%$X"$-,L&
  • 21. Our world is changing RBQYFMO& P%5J&75$&5;&Z0[&J$%& 9$(%&)-*$&/]3L&
  • 22. Our world is changing D@!O!&UQ^:EF&EQBOM& C$&*57.&.(9&,5&<$$J& %$.&(-,&_&<".`"&(,&H(9&
  • 23. Our world is changing Responses to warming temperatures seen in more than 26,000 physical and biological systems around the world.
  • 24. Are these conditions unusual? !" # $ % $ / &%
  • 25. “Natural” thermometer records
  • 26. Conditions today are unusual in thecontext of the last 2,000 years … Today"
  • 27. … and even the last 6,000 years. Today"
  • 28. Why is this happening? !" # $ % $ 0 # ( (%
  • 29. Could it be the sun?
  • 30. What about natural cycles? Today"
  • 31. What about natural cycles?
  • 32. An extra “blanket” around the Earth OM@&EAOYBAC OM@&@EMAEP@R &FB@@EMQY!@&@NN@PO& &FB@@EMQY!@&@NN@PO&&&& &&&&-(,"%(779&)-*%$($ &&&&>(&(%Sc*)(779&)-*%$($. &@(%,>a&,$#J$%(,"%$&H9& &@(%,>a&,$#J$%(,"%$&H9 &b35N& &/L85N&
  • 33. We produce heat-trapping gases
  • 34. From our factories, cars, homes, farms
  • 35. Who is responsible? Last year, annual emissions from China caught up with those from the US.
  • 36. How do we know it’s us?
  • 37. Quantifying the human influence
  • 38. Quantifying the human influence
  • 39. But what about … !" # $ % 1 & 2 #%
  • 40. It’s snowing today! Record cold! d@AOM@Be&M5=& *5-.)S5-&*>(-I$& ;%5#&.(9&,5&.(9G&5%& $6$-&9$(%&,5&9$(%& 1f&"-J%$.)*,(H7$g&
  • 41. It’s snowing today! Record cold! d@AOM@Be&M5=& *5-.)S5-&*>(-I$& ;%5#&.(9&,5&.(9G&5%& $6$-&9$(%&,5&9$(%& 1f&"-J%$.)*,(H7$g& PC:UAO@e&O>$&75-I1 ,$%#&(6$%(I$&5;& =$(,>$%&56$%& .$*(.$& 1f&6$%9&J%$.)*,(H7$g&
  • 42. Maybe it’s justthe urban heatisland effect. d>$%$&J$5J7$& 7)6$& d>$%$&),a& =(%#)-I&;(,$,&
  • 43. Didn’t those stolen emails disprove it? !! @6$%9,>)-I&.)*"$.&)-&,>$&,57$-&$#()7&>(.&H$$- &J"H7)>$.&)-&,>$&*)$-Sc*&7),$%(,"%$&;5%&9$(%& !! ?&)-.$J$-.$-,&%$*5%.&5;&I75H(7&,$#J$%(,"%$&;%5#&EA!AG &EQAAG&(-.&h(J(-&>5=&(#$&=(%#)-I&,%$-.& !! 2iG333&J>9)*(7&(-.&H)575I)*(7&9,$#&%$K$*,&(#$ &=(%#)-I&,%$-.& [QOOQU&C:E@e&A&;$=&J$%5-(7&$#()7&>(6$&-5 &)#J(*,&5-&56$%(77&"-.$%,(-.)-I&,>(,&>"#(- &(*S6),9&)&.%)6)-I&.(-I$%5"&7$6$7&5;&I75H(7 &=(%#)-IL&
  • 44. Aren’t scientists always disagreeing? Warming of the climate system is now evident from observations. Most of the increase is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in heat-trapping gas concentrations due to human activities [including burning fossil fuels]. Climatic change is being brought about by human- induced increases in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, primarily through the processes of combustion [burning] of fossil fuels.
  • 45. Aren’t scientists always disagreeing? Warming of the climate system is now evident from observations. Most of the increase is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in heat-trapping gas concentrations due to human activities [including burning fossil fuels]. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 Climatic change is being brought about by human- induced increases in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, primarily through the processes of combustion [burning] of fossil fuels. “The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and Its Influence on Temperature” Guy Callendar, 1938
  • 46. Humans are the only explanation.
  • 47. Why should I care? !" # $ % 1 3 4 (%
  • 48. What can we expect in the future? We’re already concerned about this
  • 49. What can we expect in the future? But this is what’s coming next.
  • 50. Future change depends on our choices now
  • 51. What does this mean … for Massachusetts? Hot and sticky summers: MD under lower emissions SC under higher emissions
  • 52. What does this mean … for Chicago?Summers: hot and WINTERhumidWinters: warmer,but just as much SUMMERsnow
  • 53. What does this mean … for the US? Weeks per Year > 100oF (38oC) Historical
  • 54. What does this mean … for the US? Weeks per Year > 100oF (38oC) Future: Lower Emissions
  • 55. What does this mean … for the US? Weeks per Year > 100oF (38oC) Future: Higher Emissions
  • 56. What does this mean … for the world? In 2000: 150,000 deaths per year In 2009: 300,000 deaths per year 300 million already at risk from climate change This century: hundreds of millions of refugees
  • 57. What does this mean … for Europe? More frequent & severe heat waves European Heat Wave of 2003 >70,000 deaths
  • 58. What does this mean … for Australia? More unpredictable weather conditions. More droughts & wildfires like the devastating fires of January 2009.
  • 59. What does this mean … for Latin America? C:UAG&D@BY& /&H)77)5-&=5%7.1=).$& ]&#)77)5-&J$5J7$& .$J$-.&5-&I7(*)$%& 7$&,>(-&2j&%()-&J$%&9%& #$7,&;5%&=(,$%&
  • 60. What does this mean … for California? Half of California’s water comes from mountain snow. 70-90% of that could be gone before the end of the century.
  • 61. What does this mean … for our coasts? Warmer water = Stronger tropical storms
  • 62. Hurricane power and ocean temperature
  • 63. Rising sea level
  • 64. What does this mean … for our coasts?
  • 65. … and even entire nations?Tuvalu, South Pacific
  • 66. Today, our neighbors are being harmed B))-I&$(&7$6$7G&=).$J%$(.&.%5"I>,G&(-. &%(J).79&.)(JJ$(%)-I&I7(*)$%&(%$&(7%$(.9 &,>%$(,$-)-I&#)77)5-&=),>&75&5;&=(,$%G &;55.G&(-.&$6$-&7);$L& O5.(9G&5"%&I75H(7&-$)I>H5%k,>$&J55%&(-. &J$5J7$&*"%%$-,79&,%(-I$%&,5&"k(%$&#5, &6"7-$%(H7$&,5&>(%#&;%5#&*7)#(,$1%$7(,$. &)#J(*,L& 1&!"#$%&()"*+,"#-./)"
  • 67. What can we do about it? !" # $ % 5 3 6%
  • 68. We have 3 choices: ld$&H()*(779&>(6$&,>%$$&*>5)*$e&#)SI(S5-G &(.(J,(S5-G&(-.&"m$%)-IL&& d$a%$&I5)-I&,5&.5&5#$&5;&$(*>L&O>$ &X"$S5-&)&=>(,&,>$&#)+&)&I5)-I&,5&H$L&& O>$&#5%$&#)SI(S5-&=$&.5G&,>$&7$ &(.(J,(S5-&=)77&H$&%$X")%$.&(-.&,>$&7$ &"m$%)-I&,>$%$&=)77&H$Lj& && & &789:%08;<=>:% & & & &D%$).$-,a&!*)$-*$&A.6)5%n&M(%6(%.&Y-)6$%),9&
  • 69. 1. Educate ourselves How we know it’s happening and How climate change affects us here in the US why it matters US Global Change Program climateforchangethebook.com www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts
  • 70. 2. Prepare for what we can’t avoid Conserve the resources we have Protect ourselves from what we can
  • 71. 3. Reduce our own impactstop using this start using this Each US household replacing 1 light bulb = taking 1,000,000 cars off the road (+$30 savings per bulb)
  • 72. 4. Support fundamental change stop using this start using this Renewable energy gives us clean air and water, and home- grown energy sources that will never run out. So, why not?
  • 73. Change is happening1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change167 nations agree to reduce heat-trapping gas emissions, toprevent dangerous human interference with climate system.
  • 74. Change ispossible
  • 75. THE END 1 & # % ? & # ( % 3 1 & # ? "$ 3 & % / / /@ A "$ 0 " # 3 ( 0 "B 0 & ( @ C & ? %/ / /@ C D 3 ? "$ 1 & # C 0 " E ( $ 0 ( F & & A @ C & ? %

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