Hayhoe Climate

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Hayhoe Climate

  1. 1. a climate for change !WHAT ISHAPPENING TOOUR WORLD …AND WHAT CANWE DO ABOUT IT? !K AT H A R I N E H AY H O E
  2. 2. America’s first climate refugees: ALASKA
  3. 3. Frozen ground is melting & eroding The people of Newtok, AK have already been driven from their homes. Kivalina may be next.
  4. 4. What is happening to our world? !" # $ % & (%
  5. 5. The Earth is getting warmer … 9 of last 10 years warmest on record 2000s: warmest decade on record
  6. 6. … despite recent claims of “cooling”
  7. 7. It’s happening faster and faster
  8. 8. And this is just a fraction of total heating.
  9. 9. Sea level is rising, as ice sheets melt
  10. 10. Arctic sea ice is shrinking !! !"##$%&$(&)*$&$+,$-,&.$*%$($.&/01234&56$%&7(,&83&9%& !! :*$1;%$$&"##$%&7)<$79&*5##5-&=),>)-&?&.$*(.$&
  11. 11. Too much water, as glaciers melt 1922 1992 Blomstrandbrennen Glacier in Norway
  12. 12. Too much water, as glaciers melt Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand
  13. 13. Too much water, as glaciers melt Orubare Glacier, Uganda
  14. 14. Too much water, as glaciers melt ,-,.% )**+% Shepard Glacier, Glacier National Park, USA When the park was created: over 150 glaciers In 2005: 27 glaciers remaining
  15. 15. Too much water, as glaciers melt The Rhone glacier in the Bernese Oberland, Switzerland
  16. 16. Not enough water, as others are in drought Central Africa
  17. 17. Ecosystems shifting, as temperatures warm Where you live today feels like it used to ~200 miles south, just 25 years ago.
  18. 18. Our world is changing @ABC:@B&!DB:EF& C)7(*G&>5-$9"*<7$G&(-.&5,>$%& >(%H)-I$%&5;&J%)-I&(%$&K5=$%)-I& /12&=$$<&$(%7)$%&)-&,>$&9$(%L&
  19. 19. Our world is changing !M:NO:EF&PBQD!&AER&DCAEO!& P$-,$%&5;&H7"$H$%%9&J%5."*S5-&>(&>)T$.& -5%,>=(%.G&;%5#&U()-$&,5&V"$H$*L&
  20. 20. Our world is changing @WOB@U@&M@AO& B$*5%.&>)I>&,$#J$%(,"%$&(-.& >$(,&=(6$&2+&#5%$&;%$X"$-,L&
  21. 21. Our world is changing RBQYFMO& P%5J&75$&5;&Z0[&J$%& 9$(%&)-*$&/]3L&
  22. 22. Our world is changing D@!O!&UQ^:EF&EQBOM& C$&*57.&.(9&,5&<$$J& %$.&(-,&_&<".`"&(,&H(9&
  23. 23. Our world is changing Responses to warming temperatures seen in more than 26,000 physical and biological systems around the world.
  24. 24. Are these conditions unusual? !" # $ % $ / &%
  25. 25. “Natural” thermometer records
  26. 26. Conditions today are unusual in thecontext of the last 2,000 years … Today"
  27. 27. … and even the last 6,000 years. Today"
  28. 28. Why is this happening? !" # $ % $ 0 # ( (%
  29. 29. Could it be the sun?
  30. 30. What about natural cycles? Today"
  31. 31. What about natural cycles?
  32. 32. An extra “blanket” around the Earth OM@&EAOYBAC OM@&@EMAEP@R &FB@@EMQY!@&@NN@PO& &FB@@EMQY!@&@NN@PO&&&& &&&&-(,"%(779&)-*%$($ &&&&>(&(%Sc*)(779&)-*%$($. &@(%,>a&,$#J$%(,"%$&H9& &@(%,>a&,$#J$%(,"%$&H9 &b35N& &/L85N&
  33. 33. We produce heat-trapping gases
  34. 34. From our factories, cars, homes, farms
  35. 35. Who is responsible? Last year, annual emissions from China caught up with those from the US.
  36. 36. How do we know it’s us?
  37. 37. Quantifying the human influence
  38. 38. Quantifying the human influence
  39. 39. But what about … !" # $ % 1 & 2 #%
  40. 40. It’s snowing today! Record cold! d@AOM@Be&M5=& *5-.)S5-&*>(-I$& ;%5#&.(9&,5&.(9G&5%& $6$-&9$(%&,5&9$(%& 1f&"-J%$.)*,(H7$g&
  41. 41. It’s snowing today! Record cold! d@AOM@Be&M5=& *5-.)S5-&*>(-I$& ;%5#&.(9&,5&.(9G&5%& $6$-&9$(%&,5&9$(%& 1f&"-J%$.)*,(H7$g& PC:UAO@e&O>$&75-I1 ,$%#&(6$%(I$&5;& =$(,>$%&56$%& .$*(.$& 1f&6$%9&J%$.)*,(H7$g&
  42. 42. Maybe it’s justthe urban heatisland effect. d>$%$&J$5J7$& 7)6$& d>$%$&),a& =(%#)-I&;(,$,&
  43. 43. Didn’t those stolen emails disprove it? !! @6$%9,>)-I&.)*"$.&)-&,>$&,57$-&$#()7&>(.&H$$- &J"H7)>$.&)-&,>$&*)$-Sc*&7),$%(,"%$&;5%&9$(%& !! ?&)-.$J$-.$-,&%$*5%.&5;&I75H(7&,$#J$%(,"%$&;%5#&EA!AG &EQAAG&(-.&h(J(-&>5=&(#$&=(%#)-I&,%$-.& !! 2iG333&J>9)*(7&(-.&H)575I)*(7&9,$#&%$K$*,&(#$ &=(%#)-I&,%$-.& [QOOQU&C:E@e&A&;$=&J$%5-(7&$#()7&>(6$&-5 &)#J(*,&5-&56$%(77&"-.$%,(-.)-I&,>(,&>"#(- &(*S6),9&)&.%)6)-I&.(-I$%5"&7$6$7&5;&I75H(7 &=(%#)-IL&
  44. 44. Aren’t scientists always disagreeing? Warming of the climate system is now evident from observations. Most of the increase is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in heat-trapping gas concentrations due to human activities [including burning fossil fuels]. Climatic change is being brought about by human- induced increases in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, primarily through the processes of combustion [burning] of fossil fuels.
  45. 45. Aren’t scientists always disagreeing? Warming of the climate system is now evident from observations. Most of the increase is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in heat-trapping gas concentrations due to human activities [including burning fossil fuels]. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 Climatic change is being brought about by human- induced increases in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, primarily through the processes of combustion [burning] of fossil fuels. “The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and Its Influence on Temperature” Guy Callendar, 1938
  46. 46. Humans are the only explanation.
  47. 47. Why should I care? !" # $ % 1 3 4 (%
  48. 48. What can we expect in the future? We’re already concerned about this
  49. 49. What can we expect in the future? But this is what’s coming next.
  50. 50. Future change depends on our choices now
  51. 51. What does this mean … for Massachusetts? Hot and sticky summers: MD under lower emissions SC under higher emissions
  52. 52. What does this mean … for Chicago?Summers: hot and WINTERhumidWinters: warmer,but just as much SUMMERsnow
  53. 53. What does this mean … for the US? Weeks per Year > 100oF (38oC) Historical
  54. 54. What does this mean … for the US? Weeks per Year > 100oF (38oC) Future: Lower Emissions
  55. 55. What does this mean … for the US? Weeks per Year > 100oF (38oC) Future: Higher Emissions
  56. 56. What does this mean … for the world? In 2000: 150,000 deaths per year In 2009: 300,000 deaths per year 300 million already at risk from climate change This century: hundreds of millions of refugees
  57. 57. What does this mean … for Europe? More frequent & severe heat waves European Heat Wave of 2003 >70,000 deaths
  58. 58. What does this mean … for Australia? More unpredictable weather conditions. More droughts & wildfires like the devastating fires of January 2009.
  59. 59. What does this mean … for Latin America? C:UAG&D@BY& /&H)77)5-&=5%7.1=).$& ]&#)77)5-&J$5J7$& .$J$-.&5-&I7(*)$%& 7$&,>(-&2j&%()-&J$%&9%& #$7,&;5%&=(,$%&
  60. 60. What does this mean … for California? Half of California’s water comes from mountain snow. 70-90% of that could be gone before the end of the century.
  61. 61. What does this mean … for our coasts? Warmer water = Stronger tropical storms
  62. 62. Hurricane power and ocean temperature
  63. 63. Rising sea level
  64. 64. What does this mean … for our coasts?
  65. 65. … and even entire nations?Tuvalu, South Pacific
  66. 66. Today, our neighbors are being harmed B))-I&$(&7$6$7G&=).$J%$(.&.%5"I>,G&(-. &%(J).79&.)(JJ$(%)-I&I7(*)$%&(%$&(7%$(.9 &,>%$(,$-)-I&#)77)5-&=),>&75&5;&=(,$%G &;55.G&(-.&$6$-&7);$L& O5.(9G&5"%&I75H(7&-$)I>H5%k,>$&J55%&(-. &J$5J7$&*"%%$-,79&,%(-I$%&,5&"k(%$&#5, &6"7-$%(H7$&,5&>(%#&;%5#&*7)#(,$1%$7(,$. &)#J(*,L& 1&!"#$%&()"*+,"#-./)"
  67. 67. What can we do about it? !" # $ % 5 3 6%
  68. 68. We have 3 choices: ld$&H()*(779&>(6$&,>%$$&*>5)*$e&#)SI(S5-G &(.(J,(S5-G&(-.&"m$%)-IL&& d$a%$&I5)-I&,5&.5&5#$&5;&$(*>L&O>$ &X"$S5-&)&=>(,&,>$&#)+&)&I5)-I&,5&H$L&& O>$&#5%$&#)SI(S5-&=$&.5G&,>$&7$ &(.(J,(S5-&=)77&H$&%$X")%$.&(-.&,>$&7$ &"m$%)-I&,>$%$&=)77&H$Lj& && & &789:%08;<=>:% & & & &D%$).$-,a&!*)$-*$&A.6)5%n&M(%6(%.&Y-)6$%),9&
  69. 69. 1. Educate ourselves How we know it’s happening and How climate change affects us here in the US why it matters US Global Change Program climateforchangethebook.com www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts
  70. 70. 2. Prepare for what we can’t avoid Conserve the resources we have Protect ourselves from what we can
  71. 71. 3. Reduce our own impactstop using this start using this Each US household replacing 1 light bulb = taking 1,000,000 cars off the road (+$30 savings per bulb)
  72. 72. 4. Support fundamental change stop using this start using this Renewable energy gives us clean air and water, and home- grown energy sources that will never run out. So, why not?
  73. 73. Change is happening1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change167 nations agree to reduce heat-trapping gas emissions, toprevent dangerous human interference with climate system.
  74. 74. Change ispossible
  75. 75. THE END 1 & # % ? & # ( % 3 1 & # ? "$ 3 & % / / /@ A "$ 0 " # 3 ( 0 "B 0 & ( @ C & ? %/ / /@ C D 3 ? "$ 1 & # C 0 " E ( $ 0 ( F & & A @ C & ? %

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