Growth and Inclusion in the GMS Countries: An Assessment

  • 178 views
Uploaded on

Srinivasa Madhur Director of Research, Cambodia Development Resource Institute (CDRI) slides …

Srinivasa Madhur Director of Research, Cambodia Development Resource Institute (CDRI) slides
GDN 14th Annual conference
June19-21, 2013
Manila, Philippines

  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
178
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0

Actions

Shares
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. 1Growth and Inclusion in the GMSCountries: An AssessmentBySrinivasa MadhurDirector of Research,Cambodia Development Resource Institute(CDRI), Phnom Penh, CambodiaGlobal Development Network MeetingAsian Development Bank (ADB),Manila, Philippines, 20 June, 2013(This presentation is based on aforthcoming paper on the same subjectco-authored with Jayant Menon, LeadEconomist, ADB)
  • 2. 2Three key questions addressed• How inclusive has growth and development been in the GMScountries?• What are the key patterns of development inclusivenessemerging across the GMS countries?• What lessons for making development more inclusive in thefuture(The empirical evidences are examined against thebackdrop of an analytical framework – not presented here- that defines inclusiveness, explains its many dimensions,and reasons out why it should be the overarchingdevelopment goal)
  • 3. 3GMS, GMS countries, and thecoverage of this study• GMS – Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, China’sYunan Province and Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region) A natural geographic and economic area linked by the MekongRiver 2.6 million square kilometers About 326 million people An Average per capita income of about $1500 (at currentexchange rates)• GMS countries - Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam,Thailand, China – 6 countries• This study covers the GMS countries (except Myanmar),rather than the GMS per se
  • 4. 4Looks mainly at the economic, social, andgovernance dimensions of inclusiveness• Economic dimensions - growth inclusiveness : Growth and structural changes poverty (national, $1.25-a-day and $2-a-day) income/consumption inequality income/consumption polarization• Human development and social inclusiveness: Health Education Social protection and gender equity Other vulnerabilities• Governance dimensions: Governance Democratization
  • 5. Main messages – economicinclusiveness• GMS countries had strong growth, dynamic structural changes, and modesteconomic catch-up/convergence.• Today, the GMS is mostly a middle income region (Cambodia about to be) anda rapidly industrializing and urbanizing sub-region in Asia.• Today as in 1995,CAM the poorest and Thailand the richest – yet Thailand’sincome now 3.7 times that of Cambodia, compared to about 7 times in 1995.• In 995, Thailand was thrice as rich as China; today the two have similar incomes• Poverty reduction equally impressive – Vietnam’s growth most pro-poor/poor-friendly, Laos’s the least (with China and CAM in between).• Remaining poor in many of these countries typically the hard-to-reach kind• Moreover, a number of economic and environmental vulnerabilities - increasingin some countries – threaten people’s livelihoods and quality of life moregenerally• Beyond poverty, growth could have been more inclusive, had overall incomedistribution and polarization not worsened/remained high (with exceptions)5
  • 6. Main messages – human development andsocial inclusiveness• Substantial human development – between 1995-2012, HDI increases of 35-41% range, excluding Thailand).• GMS people lead healthier lives now - big strides in mortality (life expectancy,maternal, infant), large declines in undernourishment, modest containment ofcontagious diseases• Thanks to better sanitation, cleaner drinking water, improved health care – inturn partly due to increased public investment in health• GMS people better educated now – huge increases in literacy rate, studentenrollment (especially in primary but also in secondary), and years of schooling• GMS countries also making progress in social protection, gender equity, andwomen empowerment• Despite the long distance travelled by GMS countries in human development,the distance to destination (say, a socially equitable society) is equally large• That is true in many spheres of human development and social inclusion, butespecially in health and education, as also in managing severe vulnerabilities6
  • 7. Main messages – governance anddemocratization• Governance - difficult to measure - survey-based and perception basedindicators the “gold standard” in empirical assessment• By WB indicators, Thailand tops the list in most areas (except pol. stability)• China at the top spot on govt. effectiveness but at the bottom in terms of voiceand accountability• Other countries share strengths (Cambodia in voice and accountability, Laos andVietnam in political stability), and weakness ( Cambodia and Laos in rule of lawand corruption, Laos and Vietnam in voice and accountability)• Democratization indicators show mixed messages too – overall Thailand at thetop , Laos at the bottom, and other countries with strengths and weaknesses• Cambodia a good example of mixed progress in democratization - has strengthsin electoral process, civil liberties, and govt. functioning, but does not comparewell in political participation and culture.• Significant scope for gradual institution-building and governance reforms –perhaps the most difficult and a highly sensitive issue for the GMS countries7
  • 8. GMS no exception to the“Impossible Trinity of Inclusiveness”“The political problem of mankind is tocombine three things: economicefficiency, social justice, and individualliberty”(John Maynard Keynes, quoted in UNDP,Human Development Report, 2013, p.20)8
  • 9. Figure and TablesThe main messages are drawnfrom the “Figures and Tables”in the next 37 slides9
  • 10. Catching up/income convergence - percapita income (PPP$ at 2005 prices)10Country 1995 2011Multiples(2011/1995)Cambodia 811 2083 2.6Laos 1114 2464 2.2Vietnam 1231 3013 2.4Thailand 5691 7635 1.3China 1849 7418 4.0Source: World Bank – World Development Indicators dataset 2013
  • 11. Structural convergence ? (% of GDP -constant prices – agri./ ind./ service)11Source: GMS-DAN country papers (2013)Country Initial year Latest yearCam (1993-2011) 46/13/35 25/27/41Laos (19995-2010) 54/21/25 28/33/39Vietnam (1999-2010) 32/25/43 16/42/42Thai (1995-2009) 10/40/50 10/40/50China(1993-2010) 20/46/34 10/47/43Yunan (2000-2010) 20/43/37 15/43/42
  • 12. Structural convergence ? (% ofemployment – agri./ ind./ service)12Source: GMS-DAN country papers (2013)Country Initial year Latest yearCam (1993-2011) 80/2/17 62/10/28?Laos (19995-2011) 85/4/11 72/8/20Vietnam (1999-2010) 69/15/16 48/22/30Thailand (1993-2011) 57/17/26 38/21/41China(1993-2010) 56/23/21 36/28/36Yunan (2000-2011) 74/9/17 59/13/28
  • 13. Progress in poverty reduction - headcount% (National)13Country Initial yr. Final yr. pp. per yr.Cambodia (1993-2011) 45 19.8 -1.40Laos (1993-2008) 46 27.6 -1.23Vietnam (1998-2010) 37.4 14.2 -1.93Thailand (1988-2010) 42.2 7.8 -1.56China (2003-2010) 6.6 2 -0.66Yunnan, China (2003-2008) 8.2 5.6 -0.52Source: GMS-DAN country papers (2013)
  • 14. Progress in poverty reduction -headcount % ($1.25-a-day)14Country Initial yr. Final yr. pp. per yr.Cambodia (1994-2008) 48.6 22.8 -1.84Laos (1992-2008) 55.7 33.9 -1.36Vietnam (1993-2008) 63.7 16.9 -3.12Thailand (1990-2009) 11.6 2 -0.51China (1990-2008) 60.2 13.1 -2.62Source: ADB 2012 – Myanmar in Transition; WB-WDI dataset 2013
  • 15. Progress in poverty reduction headcount($2-a-day)15Country Initial yr. Final yr. pp. per yr.Cambodia (2004-2008) 68.2 53.3 -3.73Laos (2002-2008) 76.9 66 -1.82Vietnam (2006-2008) 48.4 43.4 -2.50Thailand (2004-2009) 11.5 4.6 -1.38China (1990-2008) 84.6 29.8 -3.04China (2002-2008) 51.2 29.8 -3.57Source: WB-WDI dataset 2013; WB-WDI 2010, 2012
  • 16. Trends in economic inequality –consumption GINICountry Initial yr. Final yr. ChangeCambodia (1994-2011)** 38.3 31.0 -7.7Laos (1992-2008)** 30.5 35.4 4.9Vietnam (1993-2010)** 33 37.8 4.8Thailand (1990-2010)** 44 39 -5.0China (1990-2008)* 32.4 43.4 11.016Sources: * data from ADB, Asian Development Outlook, 2012 ; ** data from GMS-DANcountry papers 2013/or National sources
  • 17. Trends in economic polarization - consumptionshare of top 20% over bottom 20% (Ratio)17Country Initial yr. Final yr. ChangeCambodia (1994-2011)** 5.8 6.1 0.3Laos (1992-2008)* 4.3 5.9 1.6Vietnam (1992-2008)* 5.6 5.9 0.3Thailand (1990-2009)* 8.8 7.1 -1.7China (1990-2008)* 5.1 9.6 4.5Source: *from ADB-Asian Development Outlook 2012; **from GMS-DAN country papers 2013/nationalsources
  • 18. Trends in human development (HDI)18Country 1995 2012 % Change in HDI 1995-2012Cambodia 0.385 0.543 41.04Laos 0.388 0.543 39.95Vietnam 0.457 0.617 35.01Thailand 0.581 0.690 18.76China 0.518 0.699 35.02Source: UNDP-Human Development Report 2010, 2013
  • 19. Human development (Non-income HDI)19Country Nonincome HDI 2012Cambodia 0.597Laos 0.584Vietnam 0.686Thailand 0.715China 0.728Source: UNDP-Human Development Report 2013
  • 20. Trends in life expectancy at birth (years),1994-20122063.667.875.4 74.3 73.70.020.040.060.080.00.020.040.060.080.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand ChinaNumberofyears%change% change Latest yr.Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013
  • 21. Trends in healthy life expectancy (years),1990-201021Source: Lancet, 2012 (December) volume 380,, pp. 2144-62.58 5665.9 65.368010203040506070800.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand Chinayear(s)%change% Change Latest yr.
  • 22. Trends in maternal mortality rate (per100,000 live births), 1990/1999 - 201022206410691232-80080160240320400480-80.00.080.0160.0240.0320.0400.0480.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand Chinaper100,000livebirths%change% change Latest yr.Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013
  • 23. Trends in infant mortality (per 1000 livebirths), 1994-20112336 341711 13-70-50-30-10103050-70.0-50.0-30.0-10.010.030.050.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand Chinaper1000livebirths%change% change Latest yr.Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013
  • 24. Trends in under-five mortality, (per 1000live births), 1994-20112443 422212 15-80-60-40-2002040-80.0-60.0-40.0-20.00.020.040.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand Chinaper1000livebirths%change% change Latest yr.Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013
  • 25. Trends in undernourishment (% ofpopulation), 1990/1992 - 2006/20112517289 712-90-60-30030-90.0-60.0-30.00.030.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%ofpopulation%change% change Latest yr.Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013
  • 26. Trends in the incidence of tuberculosis(per 100,000 people), 1994-201126424213 19912475-60060120180240300360420480-60.00.060.0120.0180.0240.0300.0360.0420.0480.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand Chinaper100,000people%change% change Latest yr.Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013
  • 27. Trends in the prevalence of HIV, total (% ofpopulation ages 15-49), 1990/1999 - 201127Source: World Bank – World Development Indicators 20130.60.30.51.20.10120.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%ofpopulationages15-49%pointchange% point change Latest yr.
  • 28. Trends in access to improved watersource (% of population with access),1990/1994 - 201028Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 201364 6795 96 910204060801001200.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%ofpopulationwithaccess%changeImproved water source (% of population withaccess), 1990/1994 - 2010% change Latest yr.
  • 29. Trends in improved sanitation facilities(% of population with access),1990/1994 - 201029Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 201331637696640204060801001200.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%ofpopulationwithaccess%change% change Latest yr.
  • 30. Births attended by skilled healthstaff (% of total), 2006-201130713793100 100020406080100120Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%oftotalSource: UNDP-HDR 2002, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2001, 2013, WDI dataset 2013
  • 31. Trends in public expenditure on health(% of GDP), 1998-201231Source: UNDP-HDR 2002, 20132.11.52.62.92.70.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.50.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%ofGDP%pointchange% point change Latest yr.
  • 32. Health gaps between the poor and the rich– bigdata gapsCountryInfantmortalityrateUnder-5mortalityrateDiarrhea*(% ofchildrenunder age5)AcuteRespiratoryInfection(ARI)**Prevalence ofchildmalnutrition(underweight)***PregnantwomenreceivingprenatalcareBirthsattendedby skilledhealth staffCambodia(2010)3.3 3.0 1.6 2.4 2.2 0.8 0.5Laos(2006)NA NA 1.9 2.3 2.4 0.2 0.0Vietnam(2006)NA NA NA NA NA 0.7 0.5Thailand(2006)NA NA 1.7 2.1 3.8 1.0 0.9China NA NA NA NA NA NA NA32Note: *Percentage of children under five who had diarrhea in the two weeks preceding the survey;**Percentage of children under five with symtoms of ARI; ***for Cambodia, it is the percentage below -2standard deviation (SD) from the WHO Child Growth Standards population median. It includes children whoare below -3 SD.Source: CDHS 2010; World Bank – WDI 2012, 2013
  • 33. Trends in youth literacy rate, total (ofpeople ages 15-24), 1990 - 2005/20103387.1383.9396.9498.0599.4075.0080.0085.0090.0095.00100.00105.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.00Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand Chinaofpeopleages15-24%change% change Latest yr.Source: UNDP-HDR 2005, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2013, WDI dataset 2013
  • 34. Trends in adult literacy rate, total (% ages 15and older), 1990 - 2005/20103477.6072.7093.20 93.50 94.300.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00100.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.00Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%ages15andolder%change% change Latest yr.Source: UNDP-HDR 2005, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2013, WDI dataset 2013
  • 35. Trends in primary school enrollment (%gross), 1990 - 2002/201135127.00121.00106.0091.00111.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00-20.00-15.00-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.00Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%gross%change% change Latest yr.Source: UNDP-HDR 2005, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2013, WDI dataset 2013
  • 36. Trends in secondary school enrollment (%gross), 1990/1991 - 2002/20113646.00 45.0077.00 79.00 81.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.00Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%gross%change% change Latest yr.Source: UNDP-HDR 2005, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2013, WDI dataset 2013
  • 37. Trends in tertiary education enrollment(% gross), 1990 - 2002/2011377.8013.4022.3047.7025.900.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.000.00200.00400.00600.00800.001000.001200.001400.00Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%gross%change% change Latest yr.Source: UNDP-HDR 2005, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2013, WDI dataset 2013
  • 38. Mean years of schooling (years), 2010and expected years of schooling (years),2011385.84.65.56.67.510.5 10.111.9 12.311.70.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand Chinayear(s)Mean years of schooling (years) Expected years of schooling (years)Source: UNDP-Human Development Report 2013
  • 39. Trends in public expenditure oneducation, total (% of GDP),1990/1999 – 2000/2011392.603.306.603.802.900.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.000.001.002.003.004.005.00Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China%ofGDP%pointchange% point change Latest yr.Note: The latest data for China is in 2000 (World Bank – WDI 2003)Source: UNDP-HDR 2005; World Bank – WDI 2003, 2013, WDI dataset 2013
  • 40. Pupil-teacher ratio, primary,1997/2000 - 20114047.0027.0020.000.0017.00-40.00-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.00-40.00-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.00Cambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand Chinaratio%change% change Latest yr.Source: UNDP-HDR 2005, 2013; World Bank-WDI 2013, WDI dataset 2013
  • 41. Education gaps between the poor and therich –big data gapsCountryAverage years ofschoolingPrimary completionrateChildren out ofschool*Cambodia (2010) 0.2 0.8 3.4Laos - - -Vietnam (2006) 0.7 1.0 1.5Thailand - - -China - - -41Source: CDHS 2010; World Bank – WDI 2012, 2013
  • 42. Social protection (index),2009Country SPI SPIP SPINP SPIPFICambodia 0.017 0.012 0.005 1.99Laos 0.019 0.009 0.010 1.20Vietnam 0.095 0.017 0.079 0.89Thailand 0.119 0.030 0.089 1.01China 0.139 0.008 0.130 0.7942Source: ADB, 2011, except for Thailand (ADB, 2012)
  • 43. Gender equityCountryGender InequalityIndex, 2012*Gender Gap Index,2012**Discrimination againstWomen, 2012***Rank Value* Rank Score**Rank out of86countriesSIGIscore***Cambodia 96 0.473 103 0.6457 13 0.1213Laos 100 0.483 NA NA 49 0.2599Vietnam 48 0.299 66 0.6867 43 0.2393Thailand 66 0.360 65 0.6893 25 0.1475China 35 0.213 69 0.6853 42 0.238843Note: * 0=when women and men fare equally and 1=where one gender fares as poorly as possible in allmeasured dimensions; ** the highest possible score is 1 (equality) and the lowest possible score is 0 (inequality);*** 0 = low discrimination, 1 = high discriminationSource: 1. UNDP-HDR 2013; 2. WEF-The Global Gender Gap Index Report 2012; 3. OECD-SIGI, 2012
  • 44. Vulnerabilities (environmental) and multi-dimensional poverty index (MDPI)Country% Pop livingon degradedlandDeaths dueto waterpollution(no. permillionpeople)Deaths dueto indoor airpollution(no. permillionpeople)Deaths due tooutdoor airpollution (no.per millionpeople)Access toelectricity (%of population)*Multidimensional povertyindex (Year)Year 2010 2004 2004 2004 2009-2011 -Cambodia 39 826 500 23 37.6 0.212 (2010)Laos 4 406 459 0 55 0.267 (2006)Vietnam 8 72 289 81 97.60.017(2010/2011)Thailand 17 121 159 61 99.30.006(2005/2006)China 9 42 422 230 99.4 0.056 (2002)44Source: UNDP-Human Development Report 2010, 2011, 2013; *World Bank - World Development Indicatorsdataset 2013, except for Cambodia, national source (CSES 2011)
  • 45. Governance perceptionindicators - 201145GovernanceIndicatorCambodia Laos Vietnam Thailand China2011 2011 2011 2011 2011Voice andAccountability24.9 5.6 8.5 33.3 4.7PoliticalStability/Absenceof Violence33 47.2 52.8 16.5 25GovernmentEffectiveness25.6 17.1 45 59.7 60.7RegulatoryQuality35.1 19.4 29.4 56.4 45.5Rule of Law 15.5 18.3 39.9 48.8 41.8Control ofCorruption12.8 13.7 33.6 43.6 30.3Source: http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/sc_country.asp, accessed June 1, 2013
  • 46. Democratization perceptionindicators - 2011Country RankOverallscoreElectoralprocessandpluralismFunctioningofgovernmentPoliticalparticipationPoliticalcultureCivillibertiesCambodia 101 4.87 6.08 6.07 2.78 5 4.41Laos 156 2.1 0 3.21 1.11 5 1.18Vietnam 143 2.96 0 4.29 2.78 6.25 1.47Thailand 58 6.55 7.83 6.07 5.56 6.25 7.06China 141 3.14 0 5 3.89 5.63 1.1846Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit – Democracy Index 2011
  • 47. Thank youIDRC, Canada provided financialsupport for this projectThe views expressed here are notnecessarily those of IDRC, CDRI, orADB47