IBM’s Global Innovation Outlook

Better choices for the commons? IBM’s Global Innovation Outlook and “smarter” approach Congress for the New Urbanism, PTR Summit – November 5th, 2009 Stan Curtis, IBM PLM Services, Smart Cities Research

What does this mean for cities and planners? Background (bias): • Berkeley, MIT • P&G, Raytheon • Accenture, IBM Abstract With Moore’s Law driving technology and embedding change in our business practices globally, what does this mean for cities, transportation plans and policy innovations? Mr. Curtis will share his insights from recent projects in China, India, with Intel, CH2M and IBM’s Innovation Centre in Dublin. • Goal: Provide a framework to improve community development (service science) • Approach: Applying IBM’s Global Innovation Outlook (open innovation) • Outcomes: Configurable building-blocks…better choices! (re-districting, re-pricing)

“Smarter Planet” - a test plan for your region? Plan for “Mega-regions” Smarter? … more in common Better choices? • “Heard the one about 600,000 Chinese Engineers?” Washington Post 21may06 • “Planning for ‘Megaregions’ in the United States.” Dewar, Epstein; Journal of Planning nov07 • Nobel-prize! - “An Inconvenient Truth” Al Gore; Nobel Prize 12oct07 - “Governing the Commons” Elinore Ostrom; Nobel Prize 12oct09 Economics!

“Global Innovation Outlook” - what’s wrong with this picture? Kurzweil – Law of Accelerating Returns Gordon Moore's original graph from 1965 Q: the next 1B? IBM GIO 2004 • Ramping global supply-chains …1B cars, … 4B cellphones • Green Tech jobs? … solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries? • What about my hometown? … global and local trade skills?

“Smart Growth” – what’s wrong with this picture? Q: “shovel-ready” in my home town? 100 Agriculture: Value from harvesting nature % of Total Revenue Goods: Value from 50 making products Services: Value from enhancing the capabilities of tasks that one organization beneficially performs for others 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 • “Shovel-ready” roads, bridges ... and cash-for-clunkers? (commodity-jobs) • “Smarter” product bundling is re-framing business services. (iPod, iPhone) • “Smarter” Services (search) are re-framing market pricing. (Craigslist, Google)

“Smarter Services” - what’s missing? The power of mobile money Economist 24sep09 Why cities? Power Law: T >B >S >P “village phone” operator, Uganda - Micro lending and payment - Market supply and delivery - Equal opportunity for women - Health, education, safety - Tourism, shopping, gaming Better Choices? http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14505519 www.globalsmartenergy.com

Global Eco-system? … local innovation! GLOBAL: Today’s “collision” of ecosystems is recognized as City-Success? the most important shortcoming each industry must correct. LOCAL: New solutions that meet the needs of the marketplace can only be achieved through this type of collaboration. INDUSTRY Eco-systems: • Automotive • Energy • Consumer Electronics • Telecommunications • Government/Transportation

Global (regional) planning: IBM’s approach? •248 thought leaders •178 organizations •33 countries • IBM works with global experts on regional Economic Development plans. • “Triple-Bottomline?” Policy innovation is key!

City Success – reconfiguring block by block SEGMENT DEFINITION EXAMPLES An extended urban area that also includes peripheral areas (suburbs) with close economic and social ties to the urban A home equipped to remotely monitor, control or Disneyland Innoventions Dream Home Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, London City/Metropolitan Area area. Populations and commerce easily flow within this Home Automation/ Smart program a variety of home systems of varying (Microsoft, HP, Life| ware, Taylor 6 Commuter Belt, Lisbon Metropolitan 1 (Multiple smart systems) area are linked though complex transport and Home complexity (appliances, entertainment, lighting, Morrison), Solaire (New York), Duke Area communications systems. These areas can vary in environmental control, security, communications, etc.). Smart Home Program population and geographic area. Intelligent buildings successfully merge building Usually defined as a metropolitan area with a total management and IT systems, they converge data, voice, population in excess of 10 million. Megacities are Shanghai St. Regis (IBM), The Verve and video with security, HVAC, lighting, and other characterized by rapid growth, new forms of spatial density 2 Intelligent/Green Buildings (Toronto), Bank of America Tower Megacity New York City, Mexico City, Tokyo, electronic controls on a single network platform; A 7 of population, formal and informal economics, as well as (New York) (Multiple smart systems) Seoul, Mumbai, Cairo building is “green” if it meets certain environmental and poverty, crime, and high levels of social fragmentation. A conservation measures megacity can be a single metropolitan area or two or more metropolitan areas that converge upon one another. A localized geographic area designed to serve a specific Ave Maria University (Naples, FL), Neighborhood/ purpose to a larger community (retail, business, CityStars Cairo (Cisco), University of An integrated set of cities and their surrounding suburban Boston-New York-Washington, 3 Complex/Campus/ residential, entertainment, education). These areas Southern California - Enterprise areas, competing on a global scale, linked together via London-Leeds-Manchester-Liverpool- 8 Mega-Urban Region Resort consist of complex integrated services, governance and Buildings Integrator (EBI) system social, economic and transportation systems. Birmingham, Greater Tokyo, Hong management systems. A software framework, in computer programming, is an abstraction in which common (Honeywell) Kong-Shenzhen-Guangdong 4 Urban Infrastructure code providing generic Automated Driverless can be selectively overriddenofthat facilitates supply, power Denmark’s Rejsekort system, China’s A single system within an urban area that captures and manages data to enable increased efficiency and real- (Copenhagen), functionality Road user charging system grids, telecommunications, etc. or specialized by Within a country, the system roads, water the (Single smart system) user code providing specific functionality. Frameworks are goods, services andinclude associatedof softwareSystem, India’s Golden time decision making (transportation, communications, energy, security, water/waste systems, etc.) Metro (Sao Paolo), City-wide Electricity Grid (Moscow) 9 National Infrastructure production of a special case growth. nationalToll system, Portugal’s Via National infrastructure may also overall economic Verde rail information systems and social services such as education, Quadrilateral libraries in that they are reusable abstractions of code wrappedcare. a well-defined API, A geographic area with a specific industry or technology focus enabled by economic incentives to attract foreign public safety and medical in GIFT, Bangalore International Airport, economic or administrative significance. contain some key distinguishingInternational/Global that separatespans two or more countries to yet they features A system of roads, water supply, power from normalCities Network, Trans-European telecommunications that them enterprises, increase trade, or serve a local/regional grids, or 5 Specialized City/Hub Silicon Valley - CA, International Pan European Oil Pipeline, Global Financial Services Centre – Dublin 10 Digital libraries. (Aerotropoli, SEZ, Technology Parks, Centers of Commerce or Education) Infrastructure facilitate the trade of goods or services between countries or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_framework regions. Transport Networks (TEN-T)

Developing a Platform: Carrier-grade Linux IBM – Integrated Product Development (IPD) Program Mgmt – OSDL.org Linux: Open Source Development Lab (OSDL) Market planning and portfolio management The right investments in development across brands and products Integrated product management pipeline tied to ROI, strategic direction, and risk Market – Project management data information – Segment performance data Customer feedback Understand Define the “the FUNNEL” FUNNEL” Competitor Analyze Create Develop and information the market the portfolio market optimize Manage market segment marketplace segment segment market and assess performance Technology strategy segment trends plans Current product portfolio Product development pipeline Satisfied customers Efficiency in the total product lifecycle – Customer buying behavior Conceive Define Develop Manu- Launch Manage from concept to facture life – Product objectives cycle marketplace including – Business strategy people, process, – R&D roadmap and technology Profit Product development and launch “Governing the COMMONS” COMMONS” Management • 7 founders • 70 members Platforms • 6 global-ctrs • Data Center • Desktop • Carrier Grade • Embedded

Building Blocks – Platform mgmt Governing the COMMONS Applying lessons learned to city development It will SCALE!

pilots 3 plays, 3 IBM “Smart Cities” – Portland IBM/CH2M – Smart alliance 1 Hybrid-powertrain + Fleet-mgmt (global) 2 Gen-kits + Building-mgmt Energy/Buildings 3 Unified-Comm + Security-mgmt Aero/Comm Auto/Heavy POLICY INNOVATION – PDX Commons, CEO4Cities SCALABLE SERVICES – Transit, SmartGrid, Safety GOVT funds DOT Intelligent Transit 1 (local) DOE Smart Grid 2 3 utilities DHS Public Safety, Unified Comm 3 3 design innovations MASDAR – Green City.Mgmt Integration Framework

Better choices: ZipCar, Enterprise, U-Haul NOT more-cars … better services! ZipCar: car-share, pay-per-use ZipCar:

Component models make an Eco District Experts: - Portland + Oregon Sustainability Institute - Portland + Metro - EcoTrust + Pearl District

Whole systems: configuration mgmt with CH2M Hill Smarter City framework? …Open standards! 1. configurable Bill-of-Material 2. requirements based models 3. compliance, certification testing Design/Build or Integrated E/P/C Design Phase Operation Phase Planning Phase Construction Phase Vendors/Suppliers Team Possible Active Participation Whole System Design? – Building Info Mgmt External Parties Possible Active Participation Procurement (BIM)! Decommission Deconstruct Rehabilitate Development Maintenance/ Construction & Objectives Management Service Life Assessment Preliminary Planning & Documents Conceptual/ Negotiate, Operation/ Definition Decision & Award Schematic Planning Execution Package Problems Funding Retrofit Contract End of Design Start–Up Setting Project Bid Or Design Needs Recover Opportunities Restore Replace Remediate Commissioning Primary Primary Lead Lead Active Possible Active Participation Participation Owner Team Operations Team Primary (Users/Operators) (May Include Users/Operators) Lead Possible Active Participation Design Team Primary (Engrs./Archs.) Lead Possible Active Participation Construction Team (Cms./Gcs./Scs)

Green Building – SMART framework? the greenest building? ... the one NOT built! Why Energy-service …companies? Consider that 95 percent of our building stock remains static year to year, and that most existing buildings are startlingly inefficient in their energy use, and you’ll understand the immense green opportunity presented by existing buildings; they offer the single-greatest opportunity to improve energy efficiency and improve profits across an organization How to? …eco-partners, …step-by-step! http://www.environmentalleader.com/2009/04/07/the-greenest-building-is-the-one-you- don%e2%80%99t-build/

Why Energy Mgmt? Business model? … services solutions! Better choices! JOBS!

People Power: my community! PowerMeter People Power Servers GreenVent Mobile (HVAC vent)‫‏‬ Dryer, Devic Oven e Internet GreenDo Personal g Web (1-plug Portal 240V)‫‏‬ Fridge or Electric GreenPu Microwave GreenHeat Terminator p (hot water Power Console (2-plug GreenPump pipe)‫‏‬ 110V)‫‏‬ (monitor + hub)‫‏‬ GreenSentry GreenStat GreenEgg (whole house GreenField (6-plug 110V)‫‏‬ (thermostat)‫‏‬ Lamp, TV, VCR, Radio, Toaster (fridge monitor)‫‏‬ electricity meter)‫‏‬ Open Home.Area.Network - Berkeley/Stanford NIST/EPRI IEEE 802.154 … PeoplePower SmartGrid-stimulus proposal

Step by step - like Weight Watchers! Most of us are aware that our cars, our coal-generated electric power and even our cement factories adversely affect the environment. Until recently, however, the foods we eat had gotten a pass in the discussion. Yet according to a 2006 report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), our diets and, specifically, the meat in them cause more greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, nitrous oxide, and the like to spew into the atmosphere than either transportation or industry. The FAO report found that current production levels of meat contribute between 14 and 22 percent of the 36 billion tons of "CO2-equivalent" greenhouse gases the world produces every year. It turns out that producing half a pound of hamburger for someone's lunch a patty of meat the size of two decks of cards releases as much greenhouse gas into the atmosphere as driving a 3,000-pound car nearly 10 miles. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-greenhouse-hamburger&print=true

Smarter Cities? … community networks! Power Law: “80/20” Rule • Ciy-Population (Zipf) • Wealth (Pareto) • Firmsize (Gibrat) Cities: economic “hubs” Pareto: 80% of wealth, 20% of pop. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~xgabaix/papers/zipf.pdf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale-free_network http://senseable.mit.edu/nyte/visuals.html http://www.zinio.com/pages/Seedmagazine/Feb-09/355120772/pg-27

Think globally, act locally Ex: “Small Steps…” Global challenges: 3 Papers: • Flat World • Open Innovation • Open Innovation (IBM wiki) • Wiki-nomics • City Success! (CEOSforCities) • Cascadia (Seltzer.06) Regional solutions: 3 Partners: • Regional Innovation Initiatives (RII) • Intel World Ahead • Digital Community collaboration • Dublin Innovation Centre • Sustainable development (TOD) • Endurance.net Personal choices: 3 Pilots: • Eco district zoning • GOSCON – Deb&Stuart • Condo, car share • Masdar – Colin&Mogge • SmartGrid cell services • PeoplePower – John&Gene • If you’re not part of the solution… ? • Keep it simple! (Be cheerful)

References • IBM “Global Innovation Outlook” C.Harrison, M.Fleming • “Portland: Green Dividend” Ceos4cities, J.Cortright • “Better Places” Israel, Denmark, Hawaii • “Gridwise”PNNL- PGE, IBM • “Smart Garage” Google, IBM • “The US Inter-operability Problem” National InterOp, IBM • “Smart Planet” IBM, CH2M • MIT SENSEable-city Real Time Copenhagen 2008

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IBM’s Global Innovation Outlook

by Congress for the New Urbanism

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