Better choices for the commons?
IBM’s Global Innovation Outlook
and “smarter” approach
Congress for the New Urbanism, PTR Summit – November 5th, 2009
Stan Curtis, IBM PLM Services, Smart Cities Research
What does this mean for cities and planners?
• Berkeley, MIT
• P&G, Raytheon
• Accenture, IBM
With Moore’s Law driving technology and
embedding change in our business practices
globally, what does this mean for cities,
transportation plans and policy innovations?
Mr. Curtis will share his insights from recent
projects in China, India, with Intel, CH2M and
IBM’s Innovation Centre in Dublin.
• Goal: Provide a framework to improve community development (service science)
• Approach: Applying IBM’s Global Innovation Outlook (open innovation)
• Outcomes: Configurable building-blocks…better choices! (re-districting, re-pricing)
“Smarter Planet” - a test plan for your region?
Plan for “Mega-regions” Smarter? … more in common
• “Heard the one about 600,000 Chinese Engineers?” Washington Post 21may06
• “Planning for ‘Megaregions’ in the United States.” Dewar, Epstein; Journal of Planning nov07
• Nobel-prize! - “An Inconvenient Truth” Al Gore; Nobel Prize 12oct07
- “Governing the Commons” Elinore Ostrom; Nobel Prize 12oct09 Economics!
“Global Innovation Outlook” - what’s wrong with this picture?
Kurzweil – Law of Accelerating Returns
Gordon Moore's original graph from 1965
Q: the next 1B?
IBM GIO 2004
• Ramping global supply-chains …1B cars, … 4B cellphones
• Green Tech jobs? … solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries?
• What about my hometown? … global and local trade skills?
“Smart Growth” – what’s wrong with this picture?
Q: “shovel-ready” in my home town?
% of Total Revenue
50 making products
Value from enhancing the capabilities
of tasks that one organization
beneficially performs for others
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
• “Shovel-ready” roads, bridges ... and cash-for-clunkers? (commodity-jobs)
• “Smarter” product bundling is re-framing business services. (iPod, iPhone)
• “Smarter” Services (search) are re-framing market pricing. (Craigslist, Google)
“Smarter Services” - what’s missing?
The power of mobile money
Why cities? Power Law: T >B >S >P
“village phone” operator, Uganda
- Micro lending and payment
- Market supply and delivery
- Equal opportunity for women
- Health, education, safety
- Tourism, shopping, gaming
Global Eco-system? … local innovation!
GLOBAL: Today’s “collision” of ecosystems is recognized as City-Success?
the most important shortcoming each industry must correct.
LOCAL: New solutions that meet the needs of the marketplace
can only be achieved through this type of collaboration.
• Consumer Electronics
Global (regional) planning: IBM’s approach?
•248 thought leaders •178 organizations •33 countries
• IBM works with global experts on regional Economic Development plans.
• “Triple-Bottomline?” Policy innovation is key!
City Success – reconfiguring block by block
SEGMENT DEFINITION EXAMPLES An extended urban area that also includes peripheral areas
(suburbs) with close economic and social ties to the urban
A home equipped to remotely monitor, control or Disneyland Innoventions Dream Home Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, London
City/Metropolitan Area area. Populations and commerce easily flow within this
Home Automation/ Smart program a variety of home systems of varying (Microsoft, HP, Life| ware, Taylor 6 Commuter Belt, Lisbon Metropolitan
1 (Multiple smart systems) area are linked though complex transport and
Home complexity (appliances, entertainment, lighting, Morrison), Solaire (New York), Duke Area
communications systems. These areas can vary in
environmental control, security, communications, etc.). Smart Home Program population and geographic area.
Intelligent buildings successfully merge building Usually defined as a metropolitan area with a total
management and IT systems, they converge data, voice, population in excess of 10 million. Megacities are
Shanghai St. Regis (IBM), The Verve
and video with security, HVAC, lighting, and other characterized by rapid growth, new forms of spatial density
2 Intelligent/Green Buildings (Toronto), Bank of America Tower Megacity New York City, Mexico City, Tokyo,
electronic controls on a single network platform; A 7 of population, formal and informal economics, as well as
(New York) (Multiple smart systems) Seoul, Mumbai, Cairo
building is “green” if it meets certain environmental and poverty, crime, and high levels of social fragmentation. A
conservation measures megacity can be a single metropolitan area or two or more
metropolitan areas that converge upon one another.
A localized geographic area designed to serve a specific Ave Maria University (Naples, FL),
Neighborhood/ purpose to a larger community (retail, business, CityStars Cairo (Cisco), University of An integrated set of cities and their surrounding suburban Boston-New York-Washington,
3 Complex/Campus/ residential, entertainment, education). These areas Southern California - Enterprise areas, competing on a global scale, linked together via London-Leeds-Manchester-Liverpool-
8 Mega-Urban Region
Resort consist of complex integrated services, governance and Buildings Integrator (EBI) system social, economic and transportation systems. Birmingham, Greater Tokyo, Hong
management systems. A software framework, in computer programming, is an abstraction in which common
Urban Infrastructure code providing generic Automated Driverless can be selectively overriddenofthat facilitates supply, power Denmark’s Rejsekort system, China’s
A single system within an urban area that captures and
manages data to enable increased efficiency and real- (Copenhagen), functionality
Road user charging system
grids, telecommunications, etc. or specialized by
Within a country, the system roads, water
(Single smart system)
user code providing specific functionality. Frameworks are goods, services andinclude associatedof softwareSystem, India’s Golden
time decision making (transportation, communications,
energy, security, water/waste systems, etc.)
Metro (Sao Paolo), City-wide
Electricity Grid (Moscow)
9 National Infrastructure
a special case growth. nationalToll system, Portugal’s Via
National infrastructure may also
information systems and social services such as education, Quadrilateral
libraries in that they are reusable abstractions of code wrappedcare. a well-defined API,
A geographic area with a specific industry or technology
focus enabled by economic incentives to attract foreign
public safety and medical in
GIFT, Bangalore International Airport,
economic or administrative significance. contain some key distinguishingInternational/Global that separatespans two or more countries to
yet they features A system of roads, water supply, power from normalCities Network, Trans-European
telecommunications that them
enterprises, increase trade, or serve a local/regional grids, or
5 Specialized City/Hub Silicon Valley - CA, International Pan European Oil Pipeline, Global
Financial Services Centre – Dublin 10 Digital
(Aerotropoli, SEZ, Technology Parks, Centers of
Commerce or Education)
Infrastructure facilitate the trade of goods or services between countries
Transport Networks (TEN-T)
Developing a Platform: Carrier-grade Linux
IBM – Integrated Product Development (IPD)
Program Mgmt – OSDL.org
Linux: Open Source Development Lab (OSDL)
Market planning and portfolio management The right investments in
brands and products
Integrated product management pipeline tied to ROI, strategic
direction, and risk
Market – Project management data
information – Segment performance data
Understand Define the
Competitor Analyze Create Develop and
information the market the portfolio market optimize Manage market segment
marketplace segment segment market and assess performance
Technology strategy segment
Product development pipeline
Efficiency in the total
product lifecycle – Customer buying behavior
Conceive Define Develop Manu- Launch Manage
from concept to facture life
– Product objectives cycle
marketplace including – Business strategy
people, process, – R&D roadmap
and technology Profit
Product development and launch
“Governing the COMMONS”
• 7 founders
• 70 members Platforms
• 6 global-ctrs • Data Center
• Carrier Grade
Building Blocks – Platform mgmt
Governing the COMMONS
Applying lessons learned to city development
It will SCALE!
Component models make an Eco District
- Portland + Oregon Sustainability Institute
- Portland + Metro
- EcoTrust + Pearl District
Whole systems: configuration mgmt with CH2M Hill
Smarter City framework? …Open standards!
1. configurable Bill-of-Material
2. requirements based models
3. compliance, certification testing
Design Phase Operation Phase
Planning Phase Construction Phase
Possible Active Participation
Whole System Design? – Building Info Mgmt
Possible Active Participation
Active Possible Active
Owner Team Operations Team
(May Include Users/Operators) Lead
Possible Active Participation
Design Team Primary
Possible Active Participation
Green Building – SMART framework?
the greenest building? ... the one NOT built!
Why Energy-service …companies? Consider that 95 percent of our building stock remains
static year to year, and that most existing buildings are
startlingly inefficient in their energy use, and you’ll
understand the immense green opportunity presented
by existing buildings; they offer the single-greatest
opportunity to improve energy efficiency and
improve profits across an organization
How to? …eco-partners, …step-by-step!
Why Energy Mgmt? Business model? … services solutions!
People Power: my community!
Mobile (HVAC vent) Dryer,
e Internet GreenDo
Electric GreenPu Microwave GreenHeat
Terminator p (hot water
Power Console (2-plug GreenPump
110V) (monitor + hub)
GreenSentry GreenStat GreenEgg
(whole house GreenField (6-plug 110V)
(thermostat) Lamp, TV, VCR, Radio, Toaster (fridge monitor)
Open Home.Area.Network - Berkeley/Stanford NIST/EPRI IEEE 802.154 … PeoplePower SmartGrid-stimulus
Step by step - like Weight Watchers!
Most of us are aware that our cars, our coal-generated electric power and even our cement factories adversely
affect the environment. Until recently, however, the foods we eat had gotten a pass in the discussion. Yet
according to a 2006 report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), our diets and,
specifically, the meat in them cause more greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, nitrous oxide, and the
like to spew into the atmosphere than either transportation or industry.
The FAO report found that current production levels of meat contribute between 14 and 22 percent of the 36 billion
tons of "CO2-equivalent" greenhouse gases the world produces every year. It turns out that producing half a
pound of hamburger for someone's lunch a patty of meat the size of two decks of cards releases as much
greenhouse gas into the atmosphere as driving a 3,000-pound car nearly 10 miles.
Smarter Cities? … community networks!
Power Law: “80/20” Rule
• Ciy-Population (Zipf)
• Wealth (Pareto)
• Firmsize (Gibrat)
Cities: economic “hubs” Pareto: 80% of wealth, 20% of pop.
Think globally, act locally
Ex: “Small Steps…”
• Flat World
• Open Innovation • Open Innovation (IBM wiki)
• Wiki-nomics • City Success! (CEOSforCities)
• Cascadia (Seltzer.06)
Regional solutions: 3 Partners:
• Regional Innovation Initiatives (RII) • Intel World Ahead
• Digital Community collaboration • Dublin Innovation Centre
• Sustainable development (TOD) • Endurance.net
Personal choices: 3 Pilots:
• Eco district zoning • GOSCON – Deb&Stuart
• Condo, car share • Masdar – Colin&Mogge
• SmartGrid cell services • PeoplePower – John&Gene
• If you’re not part of the solution… ?
• Keep it simple! (Be cheerful)
• IBM “Global Innovation Outlook” C.Harrison, M.Fleming
• “Portland: Green Dividend” Ceos4cities, J.Cortright
• “Better Places” Israel, Denmark, Hawaii
• “Gridwise”PNNL- PGE, IBM
• “Smart Garage” Google, IBM
• “The US Inter-operability Problem” National InterOp, IBM
• “Smart Planet” IBM, CH2M
• MIT SENSEable-city Real Time Copenhagen 2008