Royal Vopak - Capital Markets Day 2013 - Dick Richelle
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Royal Vopak - Capital Markets Day 2013 - Dick Richelle

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    Royal Vopak - Capital Markets Day 2013 - Dick Richelle Royal Vopak - Capital Markets Day 2013 - Dick Richelle Presentation Transcript

    • U.S. oil and gas export scenario’s: What are the opportunities for Vopak? Capital Markets Day, 10 December 2013 Dick Richelle, Division President Americas
    • Forward-looking statements This presentation contains ‘forward-looking statements’, based on currently available plans and forecasts. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future, and Vopak cannot guarantee the accuracy and completeness of forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, factors affecting the realization of ambitions and financial expectations, developments regarding the potential capital raising, exceptional income and expense items, operational developments and trading conditions, economic, political and foreign exchange developments and changes to IFRS reporting rules. Vopak’s EBITDA ambition does not represent a forecast or any expectation of future results or financial performance. Statements of a forward-looking nature issued by the company must always be assessed in the context of the events, risks and uncertainties of the markets and environments in which Vopak operates. These factors could lead to actual results being materially different from those expected, and Vopak does not undertake to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements. 2 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
    • Dick Richelle President, Vopak Americas Name Dick Richelle Age 43 Education Dick holds a doctoral degree Business Economics from Erasmus University in Rotterdam. Career Dick joined Vopak in 1995 and has held various (general) management positions in Brazil, Mexico and the Netherlands. He was appointed as President Vopak North America in 2009. 3 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
    • Americas Positive developments at the U.S. Gulf Coast and Venezuela, with downside in Los Angeles (U.S.) and Brazil Storage Capacity In million cbm U.S. Gulf Coast U.S. West Coast U.S. East Coast Canada Mexico* Occupancy rate*** In percent 94.0 90.0 YTD 2012 1.3 YTD 2013 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 EBIT**** In EUR million 0.3 Other** 46.5 YTD 2013 0.4 Total 49.5 YTD 2012 Brazil 3.3 * Excluding LNG Altamira (0.3 million cbm); ** Columbia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru and Chili; *** Subsidiaries only; **** Including net result from joint ventures and associates; excluding exceptional items. Note: Due to the retrospective application of the Revised IAS 19, EBIT for 2012 has been restated. 4 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 -4% -6%
    • Contents Main market developments U.S. Gulf Coast area Vopak’s position in U.S. Gulf Coast area Vopak’s opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area 5 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
    • Main market developments The shale revolution and biofuels developments Shale gas Tight oil  The North American shale revolution 6 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 Biofuels  Government mandates drive biofuels trade
    • The shale revolution It has strengthened the (export) growth and competitiveness of the U.S. oil and gas industry Crude oil production In Mb/d 6.4 9.9 2012 2020 +55% Natural gas production In Tcf 7.5 Current shale plays Stacked plays Shallowest / youngest Intermediate depth / age Deepest / oldest * Mixed shale and chalk play ** Mixed shale and limestone play *** Mixed shale and tight dolostonesiltstone-sandstone play Prospective shale plays 16.7 +123% 2012 2020 NGL production In Mb/d 1.6 3.5 +119% Basins 2012 Source: US Ministry of Energy; ICP International; EIA. 7 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 2020
    • Natural gas as a cheap feedstock North America positioned as second lowest-cost producer of ethylene-intensive chemicals globally $1550 West Northeast Europe Asia $1400 $1250 $1100 Indian subcontinent $ 950 Southeast Asia $ 800 $ 650 U.S. Ethane $ 500 $ 350 North America 2012 ethylene demand Middle East $ 200 $ 50 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Cumulative ethylene capacity (million metric tons) Note: Ethylene cash costs, U.S. Dollars per metric ton; 2012 WTI crude oil is US$ 105 per barrel; average feedstock basis. Source: IHS Chemical. 8 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 160
    • Natural gas as cheap feedstock New ethylene capacity and downstream plants are currently under construction or consideration Capacity announced Kt/y Chocolate Bayou  Ethylene expansion  La Porte  Ethylene expansion  Geismar  Ethylene expansion  Channelview  Ethylene expansion  Corpus Christi 6  Ethylene expansion  Baytown 7  Ethylene cracker  Point Comfort 8  Ethylene cracker  Freeport 9  Ethylene cracker  Cedar Bayou 10  Ethylene cracker  Ingleside 11  Ethylene cracker  Cedar Bayou 4 113 363 6 7 8 1,500 9 10 11 1,500 1,500 1,500 800 Total Source: Vopak analysis 9  5 363 272 4 5 2016-2020 Ethylene expansion 3 105 2 3 2015  2 2014 Location in Texas (US) 1 1 2013 Project Project operator Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 544 8,560
    • Shale gas impact Potential increasing U.S. Gulf Coast ethylene and LPG exports Potential ethylene exports and capacity In millions tons Potential LPG exports and capacity In millions tons 25 1.6 20 1.2 15 0.8 10 0.4 5 0 0.0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2012 2014 Export potential Committed storage capacity Source: Vopak analysis 10 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 2016 2018 2020 2022
    • Tight oil impact Source and composition of North America crude oil supply is changing FSU United States Middle East Africa Latin America Key U.S. crude oil trade flow (2012) Potential key U.S. crude oil trade flow (2020) Source: Wood McKenzie; EIA; Purvin&Gertz 11 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013  Expected decreasing crude oil imports into U.S. Gulf Coast from Latin America, Mexico and Middle East  Heavy crude oil imports remain  Expected increase in intra-regional trade flows  It is not allowed to export crude oil out of the U.S. (presidential approval)
    • Tight oil impact Source and composition of North America crude oil supply impact future US crude oil flows Canadian Oil Sands WA MT ME ND MN OR PADD 4: RockyWY Mountain ID PADD 5: NV West Coast NH SO WI CT IA CO NJ DC OH IN DE WV KY TH AZ OK AR NM PADD 3: Gulf TX Coast U.S. refinery Forecast U.S. crude oil trade flow (2020) Source: US Department of Transportation 12 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 VA PADD 1: East NC Coast MO KS SC MS AL GA LA FL RI NYC PA PADD 2: IL Midwest UT MA NY MI NE CA VT MD
    • Tight oil impact: Competitive CPP exports Potential expansion of splitter capacity might stimulate distillates and naphtha exports USGC Refined Products Flows Volume (MMT) 60 Actual 2012 Low Case 2020 High Case 2020 50 40 30 20 10 0 Distillate exports Source: Vopak analysis 13 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 Gasoline exports Fuel oil exports Naphtha exports
    • Biofuels impact A growing commodity going forward, as part of transport fuel composition U.S. 400 Europe  Volumes increased rapidly 600 with obligatory mandates in Europe and North America in early 2000s 100 200 0 0 2002 2012 2022 2002 2012 2022  Composition of declining gasoline demand in the U.S. is changing 150 Brazil  Biofuels are expected to stay and behave like typical commodity 50 0 2002 2012 2022 Note: Transport fuel composition in million tons. Source: Wood Mackenzie; Vopak analysis 14 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline
    • Contents Main market developments U.S. Gulf Coast area Vopak’s position in U.S. Gulf Coast area Vopak’s opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area 15 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
    • Vopak position in U.S. Gulf Coast area Existing presence and expansion opportunities Galena Park (100%)  170,032 cbm  86 tanks; 1 ship dock  12 truck bays; 11 rail spots Deer Park (100%)  1,115,103 cbm  242 tanks; 5 ship docks  22 truck bays;  23 rail spots; 40 car ethanol unit train rack Potential brownfield project Deer Park (100%)  3.3 acre waterfront for 1 ship dock  18.7 acres inland site Potential greenfield projects (100%)  108 acre inland site  23 acre marine site  Unit train capabilities (up to 120 cars)  Multiple ship docks (deep water) 16 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
    • Competition in U.S. Gulf Coast area Examples of storage capacity currently under construction or consideration Oiltanking Partners announces $200M in expansion projects Kinder Morgan begins service at BOSTCO Oil Terminal on Houston Ship Channel 17 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
    • Contents Main market developments U.S. Gulf Coast area Vopak’s position in U.S. Gulf Coast area Vopak’s opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area 18 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
    • Growth opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area At existing terminals and two additional land plots (Crude) oil Existing terminals and brownfield Chemicals / gasses* Biofuels  To a lesser extent  Potential  Potential opportunities, amongst others through industrial pipeline connections  Potential Greenfield opportunities  opportunities in both crude oil and clean petroleum products Through pipeline and unit train capability * Excluding LNG. 19 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013  Potential opportunities for gasses through pipeline connections opportunities for ethanol and biodiesel  Potential opportunities for ethanol through unit train
    • Critical success factors Growth opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area 1▪ Pipeline connection 3▪ Time to market or first mover advantage 20 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 2▪ Right partner for the right reason
    • Royal Vopak Westerlaan 10 Tel: +31 10 4002911 3016 CK Rotterdam Fax: +31 10 4139829 The Netherlands www.vopak.com