BigAir's Jason Ashton at CommsDay Summit 2014

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Transcript

  • 1. We use the air, to improve your network COMMSDAY SUMMIT 2014 Wireless Session Presenter: Jason Ashton 8 April 2014
  • 2. Introduction
  • 3. Reflecting on the last 20 years Spectrum regulation Wireless trends NBN - where to from here Today’s agenda
  • 4. Celebrating 20 years You could connect to the Internet at 14.4 Kbps (or 28.8Kbps if bleeding edge) Telstra was still called Telecom Australia for domestic services Mobile phones were becoming portable twenty years ago AARNET had recently upgraded the entire Australian “Internet” from 1.5 Mbps to 4.5Mbps
  • 5. Celebrating 20 years twenty years ago A company called Netscape released a web browser and Amazon.com looked a little different Cisco acquired a little known company, Kalpana, that produced ethernet switches
  • 6. Celebrating 20 years twenty years ago 10Mbps ethernet cards had dropped to around the $100 mark You could order a pizza online and play games online too using a modem
  • 7. Spectrum Regulation Has spectrum policy fostered competition? Spectrum charges continue to escalate despite - ● 15 years of deflationary pricing for Internet access ● Regulated fixed line charges continuing to decline Our spectrum costs are some of the highest globally ● eg. in USA the FCC charges less than Aus for an apparatus license and they include the entire band (all polarisations) at no additional cost (effectively 50-75% cheaper versus Australia).
  • 8. ➔ Spectrum Auctions are designed to maximise financial returns for the Government of the day ◆ LMDS (28GHz/31GHz) - AAPT paid $66m in 1999 ◆ 3.5GHz (FWA/WiMAX) - Unwired paid $100m in 2000 ◆ 2.3GHz (MMDS) - Austar invested $183m in 2000 ➔ These auctions prevented meaningful competition and delivered limited commercial application until very recently. We need spectrum licenses to have a “use it or lose it” clause ➔ Non-financial outcomes are often more important Spectrum Regulation
  • 9. ➔ Opportunity to create spectrum parks ◆ Registration of devices ◆ Harmonisation of use ➔ WiFi is the best example of what is possible with this approach ➔ More focus is needed on efficient use of spectrum by Govt (eg. Dept of Defence) Spectrum Regulation “When the commission did unlicensed spectrum for the first time, thirty years ago, no one knew what it would lead to. It was a platform for innovation and it led to these cool things: cordless phones, baby monitors, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi. And so another potential big idea is a new generation of unlicensed spectrum with much better propagation characteristics. I believe will lead to a whole new generation of innovation” Julius Genachowski, Former Chairman FCC
  • 10. Wireless trends Microwave ◆ 10Gbps + ◆ self aligning; ◆ minimal footprint ◆ super low cost WiFi ◆ 802.11ac ◆ 802.11ad Mobile ◆ LTE -> LTE Advanced ◆ 5G (beyond 2020 mobile communications technologies) "It is dangerous to put limits on wireless" Guglielmo Marconi (1932)
  • 11. Where to from here? Lessons learned since 1994 ● Telstra remains the only substantial network outside metro ● Alternative DSLAM infrastructure does not represent real alternative infrastructure (it still runs over Telstra copper) ● Alternative fiber infrastructure (eg. PIPE, Vocus, Amcom) is largely limited to lucrative inner city business markets ● The opportunity for alternative wireless infrastructure has been frustrated by policy in several areas: ● ACMA spectrum access and allocation policy ● Land access notice policy (Schedule 3) ● State land administration policy
  • 12. NBN - where to from here Infrastructure based competition has failed, but why? ● Lack of competitive backhaul [its not possible to buy expensive backhaul and deliver a viable alternative last mile network] ● The failure to declare backhaul services has limited innovation in the access layer ● Despite this NBN has 121 points of interconnect creating a structural barrier to entry for new competitors ● Intercapital (longhaul) backhaul is limited to just 4 players in a rapidly consolidating market … will it be 3 players soon?
  • 13. NBN - impact of 4G/LTE/5G? “the obvious consumer preference for wireless that is often ignored by technology determinists will ensure that 5G becomes a very dangerous ‘complement’ in terms of NBN ARPUs and share of wallet. 5G will not obviate the need for more fibre in the network. However, it will not be your grandfather’s “shared and congested” wireless, given the antenna theory behind 5G essentially mimics a point-to-point network.” Grahame Lynch, Communications Day, 15th May 2013
  • 14. NBN - why not go mobile? ● Regional Fixed wireless rollout could be redesigned as wholesale only 4G mobile network ● Delivering the dual benefits of improved broadband access along with better regional mobile coverage ● 98% coverage guarantee imposed to ensure economic benefits ● Much stronger business case ● Optus, Vodafone & MVNOs
  • 15. Thank you