Alcatel-Lucent's Marcus Weldon at CommsDay Summit 2014

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  • 1. COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. DEFINING THE FUTURE OF NETWORKS MARCUS WELDON, Bell Labs President and ALU Corporate CTO April 2014
  • 2. COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE CLOUDSHIFT… …IS HAPPENING Optimize: • Fixed Costs • Financials • Portfolio
  • 3. COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE CHALLENGE WEBSCALE & ENTERPRISE TAM 1B SESSIONS DELIVERED WEBSCALE VALUE CREATION CLOUD SERVICES SERVICE PROVIDER TAM
  • 4. 4 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. AND THE WORLD IS CHANGING FASTER THAN EVER By 2018, U.S. consumers will upload more data on Smartphones + Tablets than they did on laptops in 2013 (VNI) US Mobile data revenue reached $90 billion in 2013 = > 50 % of revenues for wireless companies in Q4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 YEARS AFTER INTRODUCTION CUMULATIVE UNITS 1.5B TABLETS (2017) 2B WEARABLES (2018) 6.5B M2M CONNECTIONS (2017) 6.5M CLOUD SERVERS (2015) 0.5B SDN INVESTMENT (2013)
  • 5. COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. NETWORK OPERATORS Assets: Ultrabroadband Access New Services: Limited and Closed E/R: Increasing Network spend, flat revenue Innovation Speed: Years WEBSCALE OPERATORS Assets: Massive global compute and storage New Services: Limited but Open APIs to Web E/R: Increasing DC spend, growing revenue Innovation Speed: Days IP TECHNOLOGIES IT TECHNOLOGIES THE OPPORTUNITY
  • 6. 6 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — CONFIDENTIAL — SOLELY FOR AUTHORIZED PERSONS HAVING A NEED TO KNOW — PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION THE FUTURE: SOLVING THE RADIO CAPACITY PROBLEM 2x >10x2x MORE SPECTRUM (Hz) MORE SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz) MORE SPATIAL EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz/User) WIRELESS CAPACITY THE FUTURE OF WIRELESS IS SMALL....AND WIRED (CONVERGED) 10x more 3x more3x more 5G
  • 7. 0 2 4 6 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average Usage (GB/Mo/User) Strategy 2017 GB/Mo Growt h from 2012 Alternative Bus. Models 4.9 14x Smart Loading 4.5 12x Small Cells 3.8 10x 4G 2.1 6x 2G/3G 0.5G 1.3x 7 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — CONFIDENTIAL — SOLELY FOR AUTHORIZED PERSONS HAVING A NEED TO KNOW — PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION THE FUTURE: THE ECONOMICS OF WIRELESS ULTRABROADBAND Conservative Growth Model LTE, SMALL CELLS (inc. WIRELINE) ARE KEY TO FUTURE LEADERSHIP AND PROFITABILITY Bell Labs Modeling
  • 8. COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 1 10 20 50 75 100 300 500 1000 0.1 – 0.5 100 ADSL2+ Bonded ADSL2+ VSDL2 VDSL2 + Vectoring Bonded VDSL2 + Vectoring 1 GPON/G.Fast CO-Home Distance (km) Node-Home Distance (km) Mbps per subscriber LOWEST COST PER MBPS/SUB THE FUTURE: THE WIRELINE ANSWER DS/US ratio LOWEST COST PER MBPS/SUB 1 25 5 10 20 50 80 100 120 150 300 500 1000 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 14 DOCSIS 3.1 (WITH NODE SPLITS) FTTLA FTTH (GPON) Mbps per subscriber (DS) 10-20x 5x2x MORE SPECTRUM (Hz) MORE SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz) MORE SPATIAL EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz/User) WIRELINE CAPACITY Bell Labs Modeling THE FUTURE OF WIRELINE IS DEEP FIBER... AND SHORT COPPER LOOPS
  • 9. COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. CREATE & MANAGE VIRTUAL NETWORK FUNCTIONS (VNFs) CREATE & EXPOSE VIRTUAL PRIVATE NETWORKS (OF VNFs AND PNFs) THE REVOLUTION: SOFTWARE-DEFINED NETWORKS NFVSDN SCALE THE NETWORK SCALE THE BUSINESS AND NETWORK FUNCTION VIRTUALIZATION
  • 10. 10 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Virtualization Value Factor Value DynamicControl Gain Elastic scaling Greater ability to react to changing demand Faster deployment cycles Shorter time to market for new apps/SW releases Domain-specific network slicing/control Better network re-use and OAM/fault isolation CostGain Lower CapEx + OpEx (TCO) Depends on Application WHY & WHEN NFV ?
  • 11. COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. COST GAIN CORE ROUTERS & 100G+ SWITCHES FTTx, RF, COHERENT OPTICAL, CMTS EDGE ROUTERS RADIO ACCESS NETWORK PACKET GATEWAYS MEDIA GATEWAYS MEDIA SERVERS & CDN CPE NETWORK APPLIANCES NETWORK APPS (IMS) ANALYTICS PLATFORMS CHARGING APPLICATIONS NFV/SDN CONTROL OSS/BSS EMS/NMS MORELESS LOW HIGH DYNAMIC CONTROL GAIN CONTROL PLANE FUNCTIONS YES MAYBE NEVER WHY & WHEN NFV ? NOW
  • 12. WHY NFV ? Application A Application B NETWORK PROVIDER “DATA CENTER” SWITCH MEMORY PHYSICAL INTERFACES STORAGE COMPUTEApplication C SERVER CARD SERVER Application(s) „X‟ SERVER SERVER SERVER SERVER TOR SERVER IT DATA CENTER APP VM VSWITCH HYPERVISOR VIRTUALIZED APPLICATION
  • 13. 13 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. WHY SDN ? TOR TOR TOR TOR ANY NETWORK ANY NETWORK … APP APP NP NP NPNPNP Automatic, Optimized IP Networking & Transport Massive (Ms of VMs) Scalability No VM limitations Any User IP @ Multi-tenant Security WAN APP APP APP NPNPNP CLOUD PLATFORM SDN CONTROLLER APPAPP APP I’m here and I’m App X X GLOBAL NETWORK
  • 14. 14 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — CONFIDENTIAL — SOLELY FOR AUTHORIZED PERSONS HAVING A NEED TO KNOW — PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION STARTING POINT: SEPARATE NETWORKS
  • 15. COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE START OF … THE NEXT WAVE SDN Enabled L2 CPE SDN Enabled L2 CPE Base Station w/L1 SDN Enabled (Small/L1) Access Node vBNG vSGW vSGW vSGW vPGW TOR vBNG … …… VINE Node vCPE vCPE vPE vFAN vFAN TOR vCPE … … vRAN vRAN vRAN vRAN vRAN TOR vRAN vCDN vCDN vCDN vCDN vCDN TOR vCDN VINE SDN CONTROLLER Virtualized Integrated Network Edge WAN SDN CONTROLLER DC SDN CONTROLLER SDN Enabled Router SDN-Enabled OLT SDN Enabled Packet- Optical Node Core Router InternetAccess Metro Core Fixed, Mobile & Enterprise Service Core (IMS/VoLTE, AAA, OSS/BSS) vPE Router Enterprise DC L2 CPE Federation Federation
  • 16. COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. TECHNOLOGY & ARCHITECTURE SHIFTS ITIP OPTICALIP WIRELINEWIRELESS DYNAMICSTATIC OPENCLOSED DISTRIBUTEDCENTRALIZED
  • 17. 17 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. GREATNESS IN AND BY SOLVING REAL WORLD „10X‟ CHALLENGES BELL LABS: STILL INVENTING THE FUTURE
  • 18. 18 COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — CONFIDENTIAL — SOLELY FOR AUTHORIZED PERSONS HAVING A NEED TO KNOW — PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION THE TIME IS NOW