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Alcatel Lucent's Ric Clark

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Alcatel Lucent's Ric Clark at CommsDay Melbourne Congress

Alcatel Lucent's Ric Clark at CommsDay Melbourne Congress

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  • 1. ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FIBRE TO THE MOST ECONOMIC POINT Ric Clark | VP Strategy and Public Affairs, Asia Pacific October 2013
  • 2. 2 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 5YEARS AGO…
  • 3. 3 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 1. The Need for Speed 2. Technology Options 3. Economics of Deployment 4. The Way Forward 1. The Need for Speed SAME AGENDA – STILL REVELANT TECHNOLOGY DRIVERS USAGE GROWTH 2008
  • 4. 4 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. TECHNOLOGY DRIVERS AND ENABLERS WHAT’S CHANGED? 2008 • Tablets/Smart Phones • Hetnet/Wifi • Smart Appliances
  • 5. 5 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. WHAT’S CHANGED? THE WEB DRIVING: HIGH SPEED INTERNET AND ‘BIGGER PIPES’ • Cloud-based services • Social media • Multi screen • Ubiquity 2008
  • 6. 6 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. EXPONENTIAL GROWTH NEEDS A BOLD APPRAOCH TO HIGHER SPEED BB • Not a lot! WHAT’S CHANGED? 2008
  • 7. 7 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. GLOBAL TRENDS - BANDWIDTH RESIDENTIAL VIDEO BANDWIDTH USAGE PROJECTION SOURCE: Get To Fast, Faster: Accelerate the Existing Copper Plant with VDSL2 Vectoring and Bonding, April 2013, Alcatel-Lucent.
  • 8. 8 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. SOCIAL MEDIA AS A POPULATION BIGGER THAN TEXAS SOURCE: IMF April 2013SOURCE: IMF April 2013 Population/Subscribers: Millions
  • 9. 9 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. GLOBAL TRENDS USERS SOURCE: A Changing Market Environment Demands a High Leverage Network, January 2013, Alcatel-Lucent: http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/techzine/a-changing-market-environment-demands-a-high-leverage-network/ 7.7b MOBILE CONNECTIONS 1.15b SMARTPHONESFIXED BROADBAND CONNECTIONS By 2016… 743m
  • 10. 10 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. GLOBAL TRENDS TRAFFIC SOURCE: A Changing Market Environment Demands a High Leverage Network, January 2013, Alcatel-Lucent: http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/techzine/a-changing-market-environment-demands-a-high-leverage-network/ 45-85xIn 5 years… TRAFFIC GROWTH Macro Smart offload Metro cell (3G/LTE) Metro cell (Wi-Fi) Wi-Fi home 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 45x – 85x GROWTH
  • 11. 11 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 2008 VDSL2 GLOBAL TRENDS • National Programs • Evolution vs Revolution • Recognition of OTT demand • Headline speeds WHAT’S CHANGED?
  • 12. 12 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. WORLDWIDE BROADBAND TRENDS Large, integrated predominantly national players Continuing large infrastructure / NBN builds Copper re-considered to meet timelines and budgets Diverse, competition driven, fragmented markets —in all aspects Cable competition drives copper upgrade Fiber investment stalling – re-commitment to copper Large, integrated players and multi-national operators Large-scale fiber or copper deployments in North America Mixed copper, fiber, mobile deployments in Latin America 100M 50% 2020 90M 2014 100M 100M 2020 90% 2013 100M 100M 2015 100M 90% 2020 100M 75% 2020 speed subs. date 0 ITU-T, fixed BB subs per 100 inhabitants 40
  • 13. 13 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. WHAT’S CHANGED? TWO RESULTING PATHS TO MASS MARKET FIBRE • Additional Technology Options • Deployment experience • MSO/CATV response 2008
  • 14. 14 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. EMERGING OPERATOR STRATEGIES MORE BANDWIDTH TO MORE SUBSCRIBERS TARGET • 50 Mbit/s : 2015 • 90 Mbit/s : 2020 TREND • Fast deployment • Limit investment COPPER OPERATORS FIBRE OPERATORS DRIVER • Cable competition, quick to market • Limited investment, quick revenue • Upgrade path • Fibre competition • Future-proof • Public funding • Existing ducts/rights PLATFORM • FTTN + FTTP in greenfield • FTTP, complemented by FTTx
  • 15. 15 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. COPPER CONSTRAINTS FUTURES MIGRATION 1. The Need for Speed 3. Economics of Deployment 4. The Way Forward 2008 2. Technology Options2. Technology Options
  • 16. 16 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. WHAT’S CHANGED? 2008 THEORETICAL AND EXPECTED ADSL2+ PERFORMANCE ON AUSTRALIAN LOOPS • Not constrained to copper • But DSL has moved on!
  • 17. 17 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 2008 STILL OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPROVEMENT ON COPPER LOOPS • This is now real! WHAT’S CHANGED?
  • 18. 18 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. VDSL2 VECTORING IN A NUTSHELL EACH VDSL2 LINE INTERFERES WITH OTHER LINES IN CABLE BUNDLE BUNDLE WITH COPPER PAIRS (TELEPHONE LINES) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 at 400m with normal VDSL2 40Mbps 100Mbps at 400m with VDSL2 Vectoring Downstreambitrate[Mbps] Distance[m]
  • 19. 19 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. VDSL2 VECTORING DELIVERS PREDICTABLE HIGH SPEED FOR ALL LINES 100Mbps @ 400m DOWNSTREAM 40Mbps @ 400m UPSTREAM SAME PERFORMANCE FOR ALL LINES – GOOD AND BAD =
  • 20. 20 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. VDSL2 VECTORING BUILDING MOMENTUM VDSL2 CUSTOMERS 90+ AT&T, Telmex, Oi, Belgacom, KPN, Telecom Austria, Sasktel, Turk Telekom, Telefonica, Telia Sonera, STC, TDC, Telenor VECTORING TRIALS 55+ KPN, Orange, China Telecom, DTAG, Slovak Telecom, Tunisie Telecom VECTORING CUSTOMERS 17 Belgacom, Telekom Austria VECTORING LINES SHIPPED 1.3M August 2013 VDSL2 CUSTOMERS 90+ AT&T, Telmex, Oi, Belgacom, KPN, Telecom Austria, Sasktel, Turk Telekom, Telefonica, Telia Sonera, STC, TDC, Telenor VDSL2 CUSTOMERS 90+ AT&T, Telmex, Oi, Belgacom, KPN, Telecom Austria, Sasktel, Turk Telekom, Telefonica, Telia Sonera, STC, TDC, Telenor SOURCES: Next Gen PON, FTTH, and VDSL Deployment Strategies and Vendor Leadership, August 2012, Infonetics Research. VDSL2 Vectoring Deployment Strategies & Vendor Leadership, May 2013, Broadband Trends. Alcatel-Lucent.
  • 21. 21 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. COPPER EVOLUTION THE MOVE TO SMALLER NODES Modular Multi-service access Dense Sealed Market trend to smaller nodes driving increased bandwidth over short copper loops FTTN FTTH FTTE FTTBFTTdp 7750/7450 IPTV VoIP ISAM ONT (1 subscriber interface) Remotes (1<subscriber interface) FTTE Fiber to the entry point
  • 22. 22 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. COPPER EVOLUTION G.FAST Bell Labs started research on G.fast in Feb 2010 • Working towards G.fast • Going from theory to practice as for VDSL2 vectoring (vectoring started within ALU in 2005) • Driving force in G.fast standardization 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 G.fast pre-standard silicon G.fast standard silicon G.fast products / deploymentBell Labs PoC Vectoring added Approved G.fast standard April OR December 2014 Most common misconceptions • G.fast products will be a reality soon. - Products only in 2016, standardization ongoing. • G.fast replaces vectoring and brings much higher bandwidths - G.fast targeted for very short loops <100-200m, hence requiring “deep fiber” investment. - G.fast performance VERY dependent on copper type, loop length. - G.fast intended for very small nodes (e.g. 8 ports).
  • 23. 23 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. WHAT’S CHANGED? 2008 MIGRATING FROM FTTN TO FTTP IN THE FUTURE • 5 years of field experience! • Pallet of options.
  • 24. 24 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FTTH FTTCurb FTTN 1000s- 10000s 100s 10s From ultra-high capacity FTTH … FTTB … over FTTN/B solutions with vectoring … … to flexible FTTCurb micronodes with vectoring FTTdp FIBRE TO THE…. FTTX TOOLKIT
  • 25. 25 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 2008 ALCATEL-LUCENT, LEADING THE GLOBAL FIBRE NATION • Not a lot! WHAT’S CHANGED?
  • 26. 26 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. UNPARALLELED EXPERIENCE IN NEXT GEN ACCESS #1 IN DSL, #2 IN GPON 250+ ADSLx/POTS CUSTOMERS 80% OF TOP-20 OPERATORS 140+ PON FTTH CUSTOMERS 90+ VDSL2 CUSTOMERS 20+ P2P FTTH CUSTOMERS 17VECTORING CUSTOMERS
  • 27. 27 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 1. The Need for Speed 3. Economics of Deployment 4. The Way Forward 2008 2. Technology Options 3. Economics of Deployment FTT$
  • 28. ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ECONOMICS OF DEPLOYMENT
  • 29. 29 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. WHAT’S CHANGED? 2008 STARTING POINT FOR FTT$: THE BANDWIDTH EQUATION • More technology options • More field experience
  • 30. 30 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. EMERGING OPERATOR STRATEGIES EXTENDING THE VALUE OF COPPER OPTIONS TO INCREASE COPPER SPEEDS` 1. Extend VDSL2 spectrum frequency. 2. Shorten copper loops. 3. Use multiple copper pairs (bonding). 4. Apply vectoring. SOURCE: Get To Fast, Faster: Accelerate the Existing Copper Plant with VDSL2 Vectoring and Bonding, April 2013, Alcatel-Lucent.
  • 31. 31 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. SOLVING THE BITRATE EQUATION 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 ADSL/CO FTTN 250 subs FTTCurb 48 subs FTTB 32 subs FTTPole 16 subs FTTWall 1 sub FTTH Other Factors Home Connection & Installation Home Equipment Civil Works & Cables Cabinets or POPs Splitters Equipment FTTx COST COMPARISON, CAPEX + INSTALLATION INVESTMENT • FTTH 3-5x FTTN • The closer to the subscriber, the closer the cost to FTTH 1 TIME TO MARKET • Deploying FTTH is time consuming • Re-using existing copper can speed up deployment 2 BANDWIDTH • FTTH: 1G and more • FTTx: 100M (VDSL2 Vectoring today), G.fast evolution to 100s 3 OTHER FACTORS • (-) Aerial fiber, existing ducts • (+) difficulty to enter the home4
  • 32. 32 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. POLICY SETTINGS 1. The Need for Speed 3. Economics of Deployment 4. The Way Forward 2008 2. Technology Options 4. The Way Forward
  • 33. ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE WAY FORWARD
  • 34. 34 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. WHAT’S CHANGED? 2008 A MIX OF MARKET AND POLICY APPROACHES WILL BE NEEDED • Community Demand • Government(s) Support
  • 35. 35 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. WHAT NOW IN AUSTRALIA NBN EVOLUTION 1. NBN remains a world leading approach to broadband ubiquity, supporting new innovation, applications and services 2. Multi-mode access model aligned with global trends 3. Approach is achievable if reviews are efficient and momentum is maintained 4. The technology is proven; industry must remain proactive to guide the business model and implementation
  • 36. 36 ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. WHAT WILL WE TALK ABOUT IN 5 YEARS? 2013