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QUARTERLY
ECONOMIC
UPDATE
2013

Q3

Q3
columbusregion.com

614-225-6063

With economic analysis from Regionomics™ LLC
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

EMPLOYMENT, LABOR FORCE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES



September Columbus MSA and Ohio employment

TOTAL PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT

COLUMBUS REGION UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE

estimates not available due to the shutdown : These
104.0

November 22. This analysis examines trends through

102.0

August.
Columbus MSA employment reaches another record

in August: Columbus MSA employment increased

12%
10%

100.0

8%

98.0
6%

96.0

1/13

5/13

9/12

1/12

5/12

9/11

1/11

5/11

9/10

1/10

5/10

9/09

1/09

5/09

9/08

0%
1/08

1/13

5/13

9/12

1/12

5/12

9/11

1/11

5/11

9/10

1/10

5/10

9/09

growth over the past 12 months was 16,800 (1.8

1/09

employment increased 0.2 percent. Employment

5/09

2%

90.0
9/08

969,400. Ohio employment fell 0.1 percent and U.S.

1/08

4%

92.0

5/08

94.0

4,000 (0.4 percent) from June through August to

5/08



Index: 1/08 = 100.0

will be issued with the October estimates on

percent) for the MSA, 0.6 percent for Ohio, and 1.6
Columbus MSA

percent for the U.S.


Regional unemployment rate steady: The 11-county

-adjusted unemployment

Ohio

U.S.

Columbus Region

Ohio

U.S.

Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Seasonal adjustment of MSA employment by Regionomics LLC.

Seasonal adjustment of regional rate by Regionomics LLC.

rate was 6.2 percent in August, equal to the June rate.
Ohio and U.S. rates were both 7.3 percent in August.

(The U.S. rate was 7.2 percent in September.)


The number of employed residents fell 7,500 from June

COLUMBUS REGION LABOR FORCE

while the labor force fell 7,900, leading to the stable

1,120

unemployment rate.
1,070

Gap between normal and actual labor force growth

970

The Columbus 2020 economic update for the third
9/12
1/13
5/13

9/11
1/12
5/12

9/10
1/11
5/11

920
9/09
1/10
5/10

from June to 49,000.

1,020

9/08
1/09
5/09

and the level assuming normal growth increased 10,000

1/08
5/08

increases: The difference between reported labor force

Thousands



quarter of 2013 covers regional economic data and
economic development activities year to date, with a

Labor force
Labor force, normal growth
Resident employment

focus on July to September. The analysis of the
regional economy (pages 1 to 9) was prepared by Bill

LaFayette, Ph.D., RegionomicsTM LLC.
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Seasonal adjustment of regional rate by Regionomics LLC.

1
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY

Index: 1/08 = 100.0

105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0

100.0
95.0

90.0
85.0

80.0

Ohio

Columbus MSA

U.S.

Ohio

1/13

5/13

9/12

1/12

5/12

9/11

1/11

5/11

9/10

1/10

5/10

9/09

1/09

5/09

1/08

1/13

5/13

9/12

1/12

5/12

9/11

1/11

5/11

9/10

1/10

5/10

9/09

1/09

Columbus MSA

9/08

75.0

80.0
5/09

Leisure &
hospitality
10.0%

Computer
design &
related svcs
1.9%
Finance &
insurance
Healthcare & 6.3%
social
assistance
12.3%

110.0
105.0

1/08

Government
16.6%

Professional &
business svcs
15.0%

110.0
Index: 1/08 = 100.0

Retail trade
10.0%

MANUFACTURING

5/08

Logistics
8.6%
Manufacturing
7.0%

9/08

Other
12.5%

LOGISTICS: TRANSPORTATION,
WAREHOUSING & WHOLESALE

5/08

MSA SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY,
AUGUST 2013

U.S.

*Excluding computer design and related services.

PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES

COMPUTER DESIGN & RELATED SERVICES

Index: 1/08 = 100.0

105
100
95

90

110

130

105

Index: 1/08 = 100.0

140

110

120
110
100

100

95
90

Columbus MSA

Ohio

U.S.

Columbus MSA

Ohio

U.S.

Columbus MSA

Ohio

1/13

5/13

5/12

9/12

1/12

9/11

1/11

5/11

9/10

1/10

5/10

5/09

9/09

80
1/09

80

9/08

80

1/08

85

1/08
5/08
9/08
1/09
5/09
9/09
1/10
5/10
9/10
1/11
5/11
9/11
1/12
5/12
9/12
1/13
5/13

90

1/08
5/08
9/08
1/09
5/09
9/09
1/10
5/10
9/10
1/11
5/11
9/11
1/12
5/12
9/12
1/13
5/13

85

5/08

Index: 1/08 = 100.0

FINANCE & INSURANCE

U.S.

Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Seasonal adjustment of MSA employment by Regionomics LLC.

2
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (continued)


HEALTHCARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE

Charts on pages 2 and 3 show that the Columbus MSA

LEISURE & HOSPITALITY

experienced greater-than-average quarterly
115.0

125

110.0

1/13

5/13

9/12

1/12

5/12

9/11

1/11

5/11

9/10

1/08
5/08
9/08
1/09
5/09
9/09
1/10
5/10
9/10
1/11
5/11
9/11
1/12
5/12
9/12
1/13
5/13

the U.S. gained 3.4 percent. Ohio is up 1.5 percent.



85.0
80.0
1/10

95
90

5/10

5,700 jobs (3.6 percent) over the past 12 months, while

95.0
90.0

9/09

strength locally and nationally. The MSA has gained

105

100

100.0

1/09

Business services have been a primary source of

110

105.0

1/08



115

5/09

U.S. gain.

120

9/08

past 12 months, twice the Ohio gain and nearly triple the

5/08

Logistics has gained 2,700 jobs (3.4 percent) over the

Index: 1/08 = 100.0



130

and especially government during July and August.

Index: 1/08 = 100.0

employment gains in logistics, business services, finance,

Leisure and hospitality employment is up 4,800 (5.1
percent) from last August, compared to gains of 2.3

Columbus MSA

Ohio

U.S.

Columbus MSA

Ohio

U.S.

percent statewide and 3.7 percent nationally.

GOVERNMENT

RETAIL TRADE

110.0

Leisure & hospitality
Government
Retail trade

+600 +0.6

5/13

-0.2 -0.0

1/13

-0.5 +0.3

+3,400 +2.2

5/12

-0.8 +0.3

9/12

-1.4

-800 -0.8

85.0

80.0
1/12

-1,700

80.0

5/11

+0.4 +0.2

90.0

9/11

+300 +0.4

85.0

1/11

+0.2 +0.3

9/10

0.0

95.0

5/10

0

90.0

1/10

-0.7 -0.0
+0.5 +0.3

100.0

9/09

Healthcare & social assistance

-1.6
+1.6

95.0

5/09

Finance & insurance

-1,100
+2,600

100.0

1/09

Computer design & related svcs.

%

105.0

9/08

Professional & business services

%

+0.8 +0.2

105.0

1/08

Manufacturing

%

+200 +0.3

110.0

US
Index: 1/08 = 100.0

No.
Logistics

OH

1/08
5/08
9/08
1/09
5/09
9/09
1/10
5/10
9/10
1/11
5/11
9/11
1/12
5/12
9/12
1/13
5/13

MSA empl. chg.

Index: 1/08 = 100.0

Industry

5/08

Q3 EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY INDUSTRY

+0.8 +0.6

Columbus MSA

Ohio

U.S.

Columbus MSA

Ohio

U.S.

3
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT



TOTAL PRIVATE SECTOR

ADP provides monthly estimates of U.S. and state

GOODS-PRODUCING

employment based on a model applied to the millions of
110

100
98

7/12

10/12

1/12

4/12

7/11

7/13

+146.9

7/13

+0.3

1/13

+141.7

1/12

7/11

96
7/12

50-499

10/11

98

96

10/12

+0.4

102
100

4/12

+197.4

104

10/11

1-49

108
106

1/11

Private-sector firms by size

4/13

Index: 1/2010 = 100.0

98

7/13

+0.6

4/13

+0.5

+110.0

1/13

+133.8

+0.7

+4.5

10/12

+0.5

Prof. & business services

100

1/10

Trade, transportation & utilities
4.7

102

7/12

+0.0

4/12

+0.7

+0.7

1/12

+40.1

+0.4

10/11

+0.8

+2.5

7/11

+1.6

Manufacturing

4/11

Mining & construction

104

1/11

+0.4

7/10

+486

106

10/10

+0.4

1/11

112
110

4/10

+18.6

%

Index: 1/2010 = 100.0

No.

%

U.S.

MINING AND CONSTRUCTION

US change (000)

No.
Total private

Ohio change (000)

1/13

PRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDING
108

Industry

4/11

1/10

7/13

1/13

4/13

7/12

Ohio

4/11

Q3 EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY INDUSTRY

U.S.

4/13

Ohio

10/12

1/12

4/12

7/11

10/11

1/11

4/11

7/10

the U.S. trend than service-providing businesses.

10/10

98
1/10

and manufacturing) performed much better relative to

100

7/10

Ohio goods-producing businesses (mining, construction,

102

10/10

the average for the larger key sectors estimated by ADP.


102

104

7/10

the national average in total, and matched or exceeded

104

10/10

growth for the full third quarter. Ohio growth matched

108
106

4/10

The table below shows Ohio and U.S. employment

4/10



106

1/10

Ohio estimates for September currently available.

Index: 1/2010 = 100.0

Index: 1/2010 = 100.0

BLS private-sector employment totals, and are the only

110

108

4/10

payroll records that they process. These predict the final

+0.6

500+

Ohio

U.S.

Ohio

U.S.

Source: ADP Employment Report.

4
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT (continued)
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES

PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES

107

114

102
101
100

108

106
104

102

Ohio

U.S.

U.S. PRIVATE-SECTOR BY COMPANY SIZE

U.S.

U.S. GOODS-PRODUCING BY COMPANY SIZE

7/13

1/13

4/13

7/12

10/12

1/12

4/12

Ohio

U.S.

U.S. SERVICE-PROVIDING BY COMPANY SIZE
112

110

110

1-49

500+

102
100

1-49

500+

1-49

50-499

7/13

4/13

1/13

10/12

7/12

4/12

1/12

10/11

7/11

4/11

1/11

7/10

7/13

1/13

4/13

7/12

10/12

1/12

50-499

4/12

7/11

10/11

1/11

4/11

7/10

10/10

1/10

98
4/10

7/13

1/13

4/13

7/12

10/12

1/12

50-499

4/12

7/11

10/11

1/11

4/11

7/10

10/10

1/10

98

4/10

98

102
100

106
104

10/10

102
100

106
104

108

1/10

106
104

108

4/10

108

Index: 1/2010 = 100.0

112

110

Index: 1/2010 = 100.0

112
Index: 1/2010 = 100.0

7/11

1/10

7/13

1/13

4/13

7/12

10/12

1/12

4/12

7/11

10/11

1/11

4/11

10/10

1/10

7/13

1/13

4/13

7/12

10/12

1/12

4/12

7/11

10/11

1/11

4/11

7/10

10/10

1/10

4/10

Ohio

98
7/10

98

98

100
4/10

99

10/11

100

103

1/11

102

104

110

4/11

104

105

7/10

106

112
Index: 1/2010 = 100.0

108

Index: 1/2010 = 100.0

Index: 1/2010 = 100.0

106

10/10

110

4/10

MANUFACTURING

500+

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

5
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

AIRPORT PASSENGERS & CARGO

INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE VACANCY RATES

PORT COLUMBUS INTL. AIRPORT PASSENGERS
1,800
1,600

Thousands of Passengers

22.0
20.0

Percent

18.0
16.0
14.0

12.0
10.0

2007-Q1
2007-Q2
2007-Q3
2007-Q4
2008-Q1
2008-Q2
2008-Q3
2008-Q4
2009-Q1
2009-Q2
2009-Q3
2009-Q4
2010-Q1
2010-Q2
2010-Q3
2010-Q4
2011-Q1
2011-Q2
2011-Q3
2011-Q4
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2

8.0

Columbus

1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600

400
200
0
Q1
2009

Q2
2010

2011

Q3
2012

Q4

2013

U.S.

Source: CB Richard Ellis.

Source: Columbus Regional Airport Authority.

OFFICE VACANCY RATES

RICKENBACKER INTL. AIRPORT CARGO HANDLED

22.0

50,000
45,000
Thousands of Pounds

Percent

20.0
18.0

16.0
14.0
12.0

2007-Q1
2007-Q2
2007-Q3
2007-Q4
2008-Q1
2008-Q2
2008-Q3
2008-Q4
2009-Q1
2009-Q2
2009-Q3
2009-Q4
2010-Q1
2010-Q2
2010-Q3
2010-Q4
2011-Q1
2011-Q2
2011-Q3
2011-Q4
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2

10.0

Columbus
Source: CB Richard Ellis.

U.S.

40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000

20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Q1
2009

Q2
2010

Q3
2011

2012

Q4
2013

Source: Columbus Regional Airport Authority.

6
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

HOUSING

September building permit release delayed by the
shutdown. Building permits issued during July and

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS,
COLUMBUS MSA

percent of local permits, but only 33.1 percent of
national permits.


Single-unit permits issued during July and August

Numbner of Permits

the same months of 2012, compared to a 15.7 percent

accounted for a majority of permits. These were 56.8

9,600

2,500

August in the Columbus MSA were up 27.1 percent from

U.S. increase. Units in multi-unit structures again

RESIDENTIAL SALES, COLUMBUS MLS
AREA

8,000

2,000
Numbner of Sales



1,500
1,000
500

27.0 percent nationwide increase.

4,800
3,200
1,600

were 31.3 percent higher than in 2012, compared to a



6,400

0

0
Q1

Number of home sales in Columbus during the third

Q2

2009

quarter up 23.9 percent: Home sales in the Columbus

2010

Q3
2011

Q4

2012

Q1
2009

2013

Q2
2010

Q3
2011

2012

Q4
2013

Multiple Listing Service (MLS) area (larger than and
somewhat different from the Region) totaled 7,780

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Columbus Board of Realtors.

during the third quarter, up from 6,281 in 2012.

Nationally, home sales during the quarter were 14.6
percent higher than last year, and were 18.9 percent

higher in the Midwest.
The dollar volume of home sales in the Columbus MLS

40%

area totaled $1.433 billion during the third quarter, 22.2
30%

percent greater than during the third quarter of 2012.
Percent Change

20%

10%
0%

Columbus MLS

-10%

U.S.

-20%

2013-Q2

2013-Q3

2013-Q1

2012-Q4

2012-Q3

2012-Q1

2012-Q2

2011-Q3

2011-Q4

2011-Q1

2011-Q2

2010-Q4

2010-Q2

2010-Q3

2010-Q1

2009-Q4

2009-Q2

2009-Q3

2009-Q1

2008-Q3

2008-Q4

2008-Q1

-30%
2008-Q2



CHANGE IN RESIDENTIAL SALES FROM SAME QUARTER PREVIOUS YEAR

Source: Columbus Board of Realtors, National Association of Realtors.

7
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

HOUSING (continued)



House prices in Columbus slightly higher year-overyear: Columbus MSA house prices in the second quarter

were up 3.8 percent from a year earlier, compared to
gains of 3.3 percent in Ohio and a 7.2 percent gain at the
national level. The local change ranked 49th among the

63 million-plus regions in the U.S.


New House Price Index debuts: The FHFA has

seasonally-adjusted its House Price Index and revised it
to reflect the 2013 MSA delineations. The base date of
the chart to the lower right is now the second quarter of

2011, the house price trough for the U.S.

MSA HOUSE PRICE CHANGE, 1ST QUARTER 2007 TO 2ND QUARTER 2013
Austin
Pittsburgh
Oklahoma City
Indianapolis
Nashville-Davidson
Raleigh
Columbus
Charlotte
Cincinnati
Kansas City
United States
St. Louis
Cleveland
Milwaukee
Minneapolis
San Diego
Detroit
Chicago
Jacksonville

-2.8%

-11.7%

-40%

FHFA HOUSE PRICE INDEX, 1ST QUARTER 2007 2ND QUARTER 2013

100
95
90
85
80

Columbus MSA

Ohio

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index.

U.S

2013-Q1

2012-Q1

2012-Q3

2011-Q1

2011-Q3

2010-Q3

2010-Q1

2009-Q1

2009-Q3

2008-Q1

2008-Q3

2007-Q1

75
2007-Q3

Index: 1st Qtr. 2007 = 100.0

105

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

MSA HOUSE PRICE CHANGE, 2ND QUARTER 2011 TO 2ND QUARTER 2013
Detroit
San Diego
Austin
Minneapolis
Nashville-Davidson
Charlotte
United States
Jacksonville
Indianapolis
Kansas City
Oklahoma City
Columbus
Pittsburgh
St. Louis
Chicago
Cleveland
Raleigh
Cincinnati
Milwaukee

10.9%

8.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

8
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

GDP AND INFLATION



Growth in U.S. GDP likely continued weak in the third

HISTORIC AND FORECAST U.S. GDP; HISTORIC PERSONAL CONSUMPTION

quarter.

month low of 73.2, weighed down by the effects of

2014-Q4

2014-Q3

2014-Q2

2014-Q1

2013-Q4

2013-Q3

2013-Q2

2013-Q1

2012-Q4

of Consumer Sentiment fell in October to a ten-

2012-Q3

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index

2012-Q2

2010-Q1

estimate.


-1%
-2%
2012-Q1

substantiially higher than the initial 1.7 percent

Personal Cons.
Exp.

0%

2011-Q4

second-quarter growth was 2.5 percent,

GDP

1%

2011-Q3

chart also shows that the revised estimate of

2%

2011-Q2

third-quarter GDP to be 2.0 percent. However, the

3%

2011-Q1

economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect

2010-Q4

7 by the shutdown. As the chart to the right shows,

5%
4%

2010-Q3

Domestic Product (GDP) was delayed to November

6%

2010-Q2

Release of the preliminary estimate of U.S. Gross

Annualized Change (Percent)



Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey.

the government shutdown.



U.S. GDP growth to improve slightly into 2014: The
October Wall Street Journal economic forecasting survey
expected GDP growth to improve to 2.3 percent in the
fourth quarter, but the survey was conducted early in the

CPI INFLATION, LARGE MIDWEST CITIES

month, before the length of the shutdown was known.

2013-Q3

2013-Q2

2013-Q1

2012-Q4

2012-Q3

2012-Q2

was unchanged at 1.8 percent.

2012-Q1

third quarter. Core inflation (excluding food and energy)

1%
0%
2011-Q4

Overall inflation fell to 1.4 percent from 1.6 percent in the

2011-Q3

high than too low.


Excl. food &
energy (core)

1%

2011-Q2

believed that their forecast was more likely to be too

All items

2%

2011-Q1

previous surveys, 85 percent of the economists polled

2%

2010-Q4

remained at a very low 16 percent. However, contrary to

3%

2010-Q3

of the chance of a recession during the next 12 months

3%

2010-Q2

but still not strong. The economists' average assessment

4%

2010-Q1

percent, better than the 2.0 percent expected for 2013,

4%
Annualized Change (Percent)

Growth during 2014 was expected to average 2.8

Source: Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

9
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

COLUMBUS 2020 PERFORMANCE | PROJECTS JAN-SEP 2013

In the first nine months of 2013, Columbus 2020 added 174

NUMBER OF PROJECTS STARTED
(2012 v. 2013)

FIRST-TIME VISITS (2012 v. 2013)

new projects to the pipeline and hosted 44 first-time visits
15

50

44

30

20

11

12

40

25

25

19

27 24
27
21
19
20
13

11

18
16

28

17

9

23

20

6 6
5

6

15

7

10

2012

2012

PROJECTS ACTIVE AT END OF EACH MONTH

120

82 80 82

80

2

59

57 58

2013

96
85 82

68 70

68

60
40

4

PROJECTS ACTIVE AT END OF EACH MONTH
BY SECTOR

89

86

80
77

75

69
60

64
57

42

81

68

64

54 57

85

49

52

55 57

39

60

67
59

40
20

20
Sep

Jul

Aug

Jun

May

Mar

Apr

Feb

Dec

Jan 2013

Oct

Nov

Sep

Jul

Aug

0
0

Jun

with 27 percent.

3

100

103

90

100

of September, followed headquarters and business services

4

6 6
5
4

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Apr 2012

Manufacturing represented 45 percent of projects at the end

5
4

2013

September 2013. The numbers for September and going

standards on how a project is classified as active.

4

7

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

forward are affected by the application of more stringent

6

8

2

3

0

Columbus 2020 had 128 active projects at the end of

10

9

30

May

from companies and/or their location consultants.

Manufacturing
Existing

New

HQ & Business Services

Logistics

Science & Technology

10
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

COLUMBUS 2020 PERFORMANCE | DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES JAN-SEP 2013

In the third quarter of 2013, the Columbus 2020 team

2013 Q3 COMPLETED ACTIVITIES

2013 Q4 PLANNED ACTIVITIES

EXISTING BUSINESS VISITS CONDUCTED BY
SECTOR

EXISTING BUSINESS VISITS CONDUCTED BY
PLACE

traveled across the U.S. and the globe, visiting 14 U.S. cities

and Japan. Visits included business development missions,
industry conferences, existing headquarter visits and
consultant and active project calls. The Japan mission

included meetings with more than 40 companies and
participation in the Midwest U.S.-Japan Association Annual
Meeting.

In the fourth quarter of 2013, the Columbus 2020 team will

visit 10 U.S. cities, including business development missions
to New York, Dallas, and Chicago, as well as international
trips to Canada and Europe.

Larger share of retention visits to manufacturers
The Columbus 2020 team and our local economic

development partners conducted a combined total of 321

100
2011

45%

15%

17%

24%

visits to businesses in the Region during the first three

80

60

quarters of 2013.
2012

44%

28%

12%

16%

40
20

In the third quarter of 2013, manufacturing businesses

represented more than half (52 percent) of visits, pulling the

0
Jan-Sep 2013

48%

21%

16%

14%

year-to-date figure up to 48 percent. Compared to last year,
2013 to date has seen a larger share of visits to logistics

Manufacturing

HQ & Business Services

companies, balancing a smaller share to headquarters and

Logistics

Science & Technology

business service operations.
Columbus 2020

Local ED Partner

Both

11
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

NOTABLE EXPANSIONS & LOCATIONS | JAN-SEP 2013

Columbus 2020 tracks economic development project announcements

ED PROJECT ANNOUNCEMENTS BY
SECTOR

ED PROJECT ANNOUNCEMENTS - JOB
CREATION

in the Columbus Region. In the first three quarters of 2013, there were

63 project announcements yielding 7,916 jobs created or retained.
Manufacturing projects represented 38 percent of projects announced

4,735

5,000
2011

44%

25%

12%

19%

4,000

so far in 2013, a share 5 percentage points higher than in 2012.
2012

33%

35%

20%

12%

19%

3,000

2,552

11%

International projects comprise 24 percent of announcements in the
2,000

first three quarters of 2013, up somewhat from its 20 percent share in

2012.

Jan-Sep 2013

38%

32%

629

1,000

Manufacturing
Logistics

0

HQ & Business Services
Science & Technology

ED PROJECT ANNOUNCEMENTS, COUNT
BY MUNICIPALITY

Attract

Expand

Retain

ED PROJECT ANNOUNCEMENTS, COUNT
BY PLACE
25
20

23
18
13

15

9

10
5
0
Columbus

Dublin

Rest of
Franklin

Rest of Region

12
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

NOTABLE EXPANSIONS & LOCATIONS | JAN-SEP 2013
(BOLD = Projects announced in Q3 2013)

NO. JOBS

TYPE

100

Attraction

10

Expansion

COMPANY

DESCRIPTION

CITY

CTY.

Ace Hardware Corporation

Hardware retailer

West Jefferson

Madison

AcuSport Corporation

Sporting goods distributor

Bellefontaine

Logan

AGC Glass Company North America, Inc.

Glass manufacturer for auto makers

Bellefontaine

Logan

20

Expansion

American Howa Kentucky

Transportation equipment manufacturer

Delaware

Delaware

NA

Expansion

AMG Industries, Inc.

Automotive assemblies, exhaust tips

Mt. Vernon

Knox

10

Expansion

Ascena Retail Group, Inc.

Apparel retailer

New Albany

Licking

251

Retention/Expansion

Avnet, Inc.

Aftermarket services for the technology supply chain

Groveport

Franklin

625

Retention/Expansion

Bank of America Corporation

Commercial lending in the health care sector

Westerville

Delaware

38

Expansion

Cellco Partnership (Verizon)

Information services and software

Hilliard

Franklin

2,000

Retention/Expansion

Century Insurance Group

Financial services

Westerville

Franklin

27

Expansion

Compass Datacenters

Wholesale colocation data center

New Albany

Franklin

26

Attraction

Coyne Graphic Finishing

Manufacturer of product displays

Mt. Vernon

Knox

6

Expansion

Cyclone Power Technologies

Developer of cyclone engine

Lancaster

Fairfield

84

Attraction

Decillion Healthcare

Specialty pharmacy

Dublin

Franklin

18

Attraction

Diamond Hill Capital Management, Inc.

Financial services

Columbus

Franklin

10

Expansion

22

Expansion

Duet Health

Information services and software

Columbus

Franklin

Dynamit Technologies LLC

Technology services and software

Columbus

Franklin

55

Retention/Expansion

TBD

TBD

95

Expansion

Exel Direct
Expedient Data Centers

Information services and software

Upper Arlington

Franklin

4

Expansion

Ezdure Bamboo Products (USA) LLC

Bamboo flooring

Dublin

Franklin

8

Attraction

FCX Performance, Inc.

Distributor of process flow equipment

Columbus

Franklin

34

Retention/Expansion

G-TEKT North America Corporation

R&D for structural body parts for motor vehicles

TBD

TBD

77

Attraction

G-TEKT North America Corporation

Structural body parts of motor vehicles

West Jefferson

Madison

23

Attraction

Harry and David

Direct marketing and e-commerce

Hebron

Licking

18

Expansion

HD Supply Facilities Maintenance Ltd.

Supplier to commercial residential projects

Groveport

Franklin

120

Retention/Expansion

HealthSpot, Inc.

Health care stations

Dublin

Franklin

60

Expansion
Expansion
Expansion

Highlights for Children, Inc.

Children's educational books

Columbus

Franklin

50

Honda of America Mfg., Inc.

Production of Honda Accord Sedan and Coupe and Acura TL.

Marysville

Union

50

13
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

NOTABLE EXPANSIONS & LOCATIONS | JAN-SEP 2013
(BOLD = Projects announced in Q3 2013)

NO. JOBS

TYPE

Franklin

27

Expansion

Logan

20

Expansion

Knox

135

Expansion

Franklin

500

Expansion

Groveport

Franklin

36

Expansion

Dublin

Franklin

20

Expansion

170

Attraction

COMPANY

DESCRIPTION

CITY

CTY.

International Engineering Group LLC

Plastic injection molds

Hilliard

ISS America, Inc.

Manufacturer of park plug cylinders

Bellefontaine

JELD-WEN, Inc.

Manufacturer of vinyl windows and doors

Mt. Vernon

JPMorgan Chase

Financial services

Dublin

Komar Industries, Inc.

Compactors and shredders

LSP Technologies, Inc.

Developer of materials-processing technology for aerospace and power generation OEMs

lululemon athletica inc

Consumer products

Columbus

Franklin

Marne Plastics, LLC

Manufacturer of plastic and rubber products

Columbus

Franklin

3

Expansion

MBA Focus

Recruitment technology solutions

Dublin

Franklin

4

Expansion

Mediu LLC

Call center, consulting services provider

Worthington

Franklin

18

Expansion

Molina Healthcare, Inc.

Health care providers

Columbus

Franklin

300

Expansion

National Church Residences

Head office of housing nonprofit organization

Upper Arlington

Franklin

188

Expansion

Navidea Biopharmaceuticals

Biopharmaceuticals

Dublin

Franklin

60

Retention/Expansion

Novotec Recycling LLC

Recycled materials

Columbus

Franklin

235

Retention/Expansion

Persistent Systems Ltd.

Software product engineering and development

Dublin

Franklin

30

Attraction
Expansion

Phoenix Electrotek

Manufacturer of wiring harnesses and cable assemblies

Lancaster

Fairfield

25

Pillar Technology Group, LLC

Strategic business consultant and software developer

Columbus

Franklin

40

Expansion
Expansion

Precision CNC

Metal parts for consumer goods or machines

Lancaster

Fairfield

9

Print Syndicate LLC

E-commerce of custom design t-shirts and products

Columbus

Franklin

165

Retention/Expansion

Proform Industries, Ltd.

Transportation equipment manufacturer

Columbus

Franklin

178

Retention/Expansion

Safelite Group, Inc.

Headquarters, contact center, and automotive glass shops

Columbus

Franklin

350

Expansion

Spectrum Commercial Coatings

Full service commercial and industrial coating contractor

Columbus

Franklin

30

Expansion

SpeedFC, Inc.

End-to-end e-commerce services

Etna Township

Licking

492

Retention/Expansion

Stanley Electric U.S. Co.

Automotive parts manufacturer

London

Madison

150

Expansion

Tarrier Foods Inc.

Manufactures candy toppings

Columbus

Franklin

25

Expansion

Team Gemini LLC

Renewable energy, landfill digester

Grove City

Franklin

80

Attraction
Expansion
Retention/Expansion

Teleperformance

Customer contact center

Dublin

Franklin

500

The Kroger Co.

Kroger Pharmacy's central fulfillment site

Columbus

Franklin

126

14
QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013

NOTABLE EXPANSIONS & LOCATIONS | JAN-SEP 2013
(BOLD = Projects announced in Q3 2013)

NO. JOBS

TYPE

Franklin

12

Expansion

Franklin

13

Attraction

Columbus

Franklin

20

Expansion

Fredericktown

Knox

20

Expansion

Railroad tank car manufacturer and repair

Marion

Marion

30

Expansion

Oil and gas storage tanks

Bremen

Fairfield

24

Expansion

Franklin

40

Expansion

COMPANY

DESCRIPTION

CITY

CTY.

Thomas & Marker Construction Co.

Construction company

Upper Arlington

Toyo System

Rechargeable battery testing systems

Columbus

Traycer Diagnostic Systems Inc.

Information services and software

UMD Automated Systems

State-of-the-art material handling and conveyor systems

Union Tank Car Company
Westerman, Inc.
Zipline Logistics LLC

Logistics service provider

TBD

15

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Quarterly Economic Update | Q3 2013

  • 2. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 EMPLOYMENT, LABOR FORCE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES  September Columbus MSA and Ohio employment TOTAL PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COLUMBUS REGION UNEMPLOYMENT RATE estimates not available due to the shutdown : These 104.0 November 22. This analysis examines trends through 102.0 August. Columbus MSA employment reaches another record in August: Columbus MSA employment increased 12% 10% 100.0 8% 98.0 6% 96.0 1/13 5/13 9/12 1/12 5/12 9/11 1/11 5/11 9/10 1/10 5/10 9/09 1/09 5/09 9/08 0% 1/08 1/13 5/13 9/12 1/12 5/12 9/11 1/11 5/11 9/10 1/10 5/10 9/09 growth over the past 12 months was 16,800 (1.8 1/09 employment increased 0.2 percent. Employment 5/09 2% 90.0 9/08 969,400. Ohio employment fell 0.1 percent and U.S. 1/08 4% 92.0 5/08 94.0 4,000 (0.4 percent) from June through August to 5/08  Index: 1/08 = 100.0 will be issued with the October estimates on percent) for the MSA, 0.6 percent for Ohio, and 1.6 Columbus MSA percent for the U.S.  Regional unemployment rate steady: The 11-county -adjusted unemployment Ohio U.S. Columbus Region Ohio U.S. Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seasonal adjustment of MSA employment by Regionomics LLC. Seasonal adjustment of regional rate by Regionomics LLC. rate was 6.2 percent in August, equal to the June rate. Ohio and U.S. rates were both 7.3 percent in August. (The U.S. rate was 7.2 percent in September.)  The number of employed residents fell 7,500 from June COLUMBUS REGION LABOR FORCE while the labor force fell 7,900, leading to the stable 1,120 unemployment rate. 1,070 Gap between normal and actual labor force growth 970 The Columbus 2020 economic update for the third 9/12 1/13 5/13 9/11 1/12 5/12 9/10 1/11 5/11 920 9/09 1/10 5/10 from June to 49,000. 1,020 9/08 1/09 5/09 and the level assuming normal growth increased 10,000 1/08 5/08 increases: The difference between reported labor force Thousands  quarter of 2013 covers regional economic data and economic development activities year to date, with a Labor force Labor force, normal growth Resident employment focus on July to September. The analysis of the regional economy (pages 1 to 9) was prepared by Bill LaFayette, Ph.D., RegionomicsTM LLC. Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seasonal adjustment of regional rate by Regionomics LLC. 1
  • 3. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY Index: 1/08 = 100.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 Ohio Columbus MSA U.S. Ohio 1/13 5/13 9/12 1/12 5/12 9/11 1/11 5/11 9/10 1/10 5/10 9/09 1/09 5/09 1/08 1/13 5/13 9/12 1/12 5/12 9/11 1/11 5/11 9/10 1/10 5/10 9/09 1/09 Columbus MSA 9/08 75.0 80.0 5/09 Leisure & hospitality 10.0% Computer design & related svcs 1.9% Finance & insurance Healthcare & 6.3% social assistance 12.3% 110.0 105.0 1/08 Government 16.6% Professional & business svcs 15.0% 110.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 Retail trade 10.0% MANUFACTURING 5/08 Logistics 8.6% Manufacturing 7.0% 9/08 Other 12.5% LOGISTICS: TRANSPORTATION, WAREHOUSING & WHOLESALE 5/08 MSA SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, AUGUST 2013 U.S. *Excluding computer design and related services. PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES COMPUTER DESIGN & RELATED SERVICES Index: 1/08 = 100.0 105 100 95 90 110 130 105 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 140 110 120 110 100 100 95 90 Columbus MSA Ohio U.S. Columbus MSA Ohio U.S. Columbus MSA Ohio 1/13 5/13 5/12 9/12 1/12 9/11 1/11 5/11 9/10 1/10 5/10 5/09 9/09 80 1/09 80 9/08 80 1/08 85 1/08 5/08 9/08 1/09 5/09 9/09 1/10 5/10 9/10 1/11 5/11 9/11 1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 5/13 90 1/08 5/08 9/08 1/09 5/09 9/09 1/10 5/10 9/10 1/11 5/11 9/11 1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 5/13 85 5/08 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 FINANCE & INSURANCE U.S. Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seasonal adjustment of MSA employment by Regionomics LLC. 2
  • 4. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (continued)  HEALTHCARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE Charts on pages 2 and 3 show that the Columbus MSA LEISURE & HOSPITALITY experienced greater-than-average quarterly 115.0 125 110.0 1/13 5/13 9/12 1/12 5/12 9/11 1/11 5/11 9/10 1/08 5/08 9/08 1/09 5/09 9/09 1/10 5/10 9/10 1/11 5/11 9/11 1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 5/13 the U.S. gained 3.4 percent. Ohio is up 1.5 percent.  85.0 80.0 1/10 95 90 5/10 5,700 jobs (3.6 percent) over the past 12 months, while 95.0 90.0 9/09 strength locally and nationally. The MSA has gained 105 100 100.0 1/09 Business services have been a primary source of 110 105.0 1/08  115 5/09 U.S. gain. 120 9/08 past 12 months, twice the Ohio gain and nearly triple the 5/08 Logistics has gained 2,700 jobs (3.4 percent) over the Index: 1/08 = 100.0  130 and especially government during July and August. Index: 1/08 = 100.0 employment gains in logistics, business services, finance, Leisure and hospitality employment is up 4,800 (5.1 percent) from last August, compared to gains of 2.3 Columbus MSA Ohio U.S. Columbus MSA Ohio U.S. percent statewide and 3.7 percent nationally. GOVERNMENT RETAIL TRADE 110.0 Leisure & hospitality Government Retail trade +600 +0.6 5/13 -0.2 -0.0 1/13 -0.5 +0.3 +3,400 +2.2 5/12 -0.8 +0.3 9/12 -1.4 -800 -0.8 85.0 80.0 1/12 -1,700 80.0 5/11 +0.4 +0.2 90.0 9/11 +300 +0.4 85.0 1/11 +0.2 +0.3 9/10 0.0 95.0 5/10 0 90.0 1/10 -0.7 -0.0 +0.5 +0.3 100.0 9/09 Healthcare & social assistance -1.6 +1.6 95.0 5/09 Finance & insurance -1,100 +2,600 100.0 1/09 Computer design & related svcs. % 105.0 9/08 Professional & business services % +0.8 +0.2 105.0 1/08 Manufacturing % +200 +0.3 110.0 US Index: 1/08 = 100.0 No. Logistics OH 1/08 5/08 9/08 1/09 5/09 9/09 1/10 5/10 9/10 1/11 5/11 9/11 1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 5/13 MSA empl. chg. Index: 1/08 = 100.0 Industry 5/08 Q3 EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY INDUSTRY +0.8 +0.6 Columbus MSA Ohio U.S. Columbus MSA Ohio U.S. 3
  • 5. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT  TOTAL PRIVATE SECTOR ADP provides monthly estimates of U.S. and state GOODS-PRODUCING employment based on a model applied to the millions of 110 100 98 7/12 10/12 1/12 4/12 7/11 7/13 +146.9 7/13 +0.3 1/13 +141.7 1/12 7/11 96 7/12 50-499 10/11 98 96 10/12 +0.4 102 100 4/12 +197.4 104 10/11 1-49 108 106 1/11 Private-sector firms by size 4/13 Index: 1/2010 = 100.0 98 7/13 +0.6 4/13 +0.5 +110.0 1/13 +133.8 +0.7 +4.5 10/12 +0.5 Prof. & business services 100 1/10 Trade, transportation & utilities 4.7 102 7/12 +0.0 4/12 +0.7 +0.7 1/12 +40.1 +0.4 10/11 +0.8 +2.5 7/11 +1.6 Manufacturing 4/11 Mining & construction 104 1/11 +0.4 7/10 +486 106 10/10 +0.4 1/11 112 110 4/10 +18.6 % Index: 1/2010 = 100.0 No. % U.S. MINING AND CONSTRUCTION US change (000) No. Total private Ohio change (000) 1/13 PRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDING 108 Industry 4/11 1/10 7/13 1/13 4/13 7/12 Ohio 4/11 Q3 EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY INDUSTRY U.S. 4/13 Ohio 10/12 1/12 4/12 7/11 10/11 1/11 4/11 7/10 the U.S. trend than service-providing businesses. 10/10 98 1/10 and manufacturing) performed much better relative to 100 7/10 Ohio goods-producing businesses (mining, construction, 102 10/10 the average for the larger key sectors estimated by ADP.  102 104 7/10 the national average in total, and matched or exceeded 104 10/10 growth for the full third quarter. Ohio growth matched 108 106 4/10 The table below shows Ohio and U.S. employment 4/10  106 1/10 Ohio estimates for September currently available. Index: 1/2010 = 100.0 Index: 1/2010 = 100.0 BLS private-sector employment totals, and are the only 110 108 4/10 payroll records that they process. These predict the final +0.6 500+ Ohio U.S. Ohio U.S. Source: ADP Employment Report. 4
  • 6. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT (continued) TRADE, TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES 107 114 102 101 100 108 106 104 102 Ohio U.S. U.S. PRIVATE-SECTOR BY COMPANY SIZE U.S. U.S. GOODS-PRODUCING BY COMPANY SIZE 7/13 1/13 4/13 7/12 10/12 1/12 4/12 Ohio U.S. U.S. SERVICE-PROVIDING BY COMPANY SIZE 112 110 110 1-49 500+ 102 100 1-49 500+ 1-49 50-499 7/13 4/13 1/13 10/12 7/12 4/12 1/12 10/11 7/11 4/11 1/11 7/10 7/13 1/13 4/13 7/12 10/12 1/12 50-499 4/12 7/11 10/11 1/11 4/11 7/10 10/10 1/10 98 4/10 7/13 1/13 4/13 7/12 10/12 1/12 50-499 4/12 7/11 10/11 1/11 4/11 7/10 10/10 1/10 98 4/10 98 102 100 106 104 10/10 102 100 106 104 108 1/10 106 104 108 4/10 108 Index: 1/2010 = 100.0 112 110 Index: 1/2010 = 100.0 112 Index: 1/2010 = 100.0 7/11 1/10 7/13 1/13 4/13 7/12 10/12 1/12 4/12 7/11 10/11 1/11 4/11 10/10 1/10 7/13 1/13 4/13 7/12 10/12 1/12 4/12 7/11 10/11 1/11 4/11 7/10 10/10 1/10 4/10 Ohio 98 7/10 98 98 100 4/10 99 10/11 100 103 1/11 102 104 110 4/11 104 105 7/10 106 112 Index: 1/2010 = 100.0 108 Index: 1/2010 = 100.0 Index: 1/2010 = 100.0 106 10/10 110 4/10 MANUFACTURING 500+ Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5
  • 7. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE AIRPORT PASSENGERS & CARGO INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE VACANCY RATES PORT COLUMBUS INTL. AIRPORT PASSENGERS 1,800 1,600 Thousands of Passengers 22.0 20.0 Percent 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 2007-Q1 2007-Q2 2007-Q3 2007-Q4 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 8.0 Columbus 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Q1 2009 Q2 2010 2011 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 U.S. Source: CB Richard Ellis. Source: Columbus Regional Airport Authority. OFFICE VACANCY RATES RICKENBACKER INTL. AIRPORT CARGO HANDLED 22.0 50,000 45,000 Thousands of Pounds Percent 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 2007-Q1 2007-Q2 2007-Q3 2007-Q4 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 10.0 Columbus Source: CB Richard Ellis. U.S. 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Q1 2009 Q2 2010 Q3 2011 2012 Q4 2013 Source: Columbus Regional Airport Authority. 6
  • 8. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 HOUSING September building permit release delayed by the shutdown. Building permits issued during July and RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS, COLUMBUS MSA percent of local permits, but only 33.1 percent of national permits.  Single-unit permits issued during July and August Numbner of Permits the same months of 2012, compared to a 15.7 percent accounted for a majority of permits. These were 56.8 9,600 2,500 August in the Columbus MSA were up 27.1 percent from U.S. increase. Units in multi-unit structures again RESIDENTIAL SALES, COLUMBUS MLS AREA 8,000 2,000 Numbner of Sales  1,500 1,000 500 27.0 percent nationwide increase. 4,800 3,200 1,600 were 31.3 percent higher than in 2012, compared to a  6,400 0 0 Q1 Number of home sales in Columbus during the third Q2 2009 quarter up 23.9 percent: Home sales in the Columbus 2010 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2009 2013 Q2 2010 Q3 2011 2012 Q4 2013 Multiple Listing Service (MLS) area (larger than and somewhat different from the Region) totaled 7,780 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Source: Columbus Board of Realtors. during the third quarter, up from 6,281 in 2012. Nationally, home sales during the quarter were 14.6 percent higher than last year, and were 18.9 percent higher in the Midwest. The dollar volume of home sales in the Columbus MLS 40% area totaled $1.433 billion during the third quarter, 22.2 30% percent greater than during the third quarter of 2012. Percent Change 20% 10% 0% Columbus MLS -10% U.S. -20% 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q1 2012-Q4 2012-Q3 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2010-Q4 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q1 2009-Q4 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q1 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2008-Q1 -30% 2008-Q2  CHANGE IN RESIDENTIAL SALES FROM SAME QUARTER PREVIOUS YEAR Source: Columbus Board of Realtors, National Association of Realtors. 7
  • 9. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 HOUSING (continued)  House prices in Columbus slightly higher year-overyear: Columbus MSA house prices in the second quarter were up 3.8 percent from a year earlier, compared to gains of 3.3 percent in Ohio and a 7.2 percent gain at the national level. The local change ranked 49th among the 63 million-plus regions in the U.S.  New House Price Index debuts: The FHFA has seasonally-adjusted its House Price Index and revised it to reflect the 2013 MSA delineations. The base date of the chart to the lower right is now the second quarter of 2011, the house price trough for the U.S. MSA HOUSE PRICE CHANGE, 1ST QUARTER 2007 TO 2ND QUARTER 2013 Austin Pittsburgh Oklahoma City Indianapolis Nashville-Davidson Raleigh Columbus Charlotte Cincinnati Kansas City United States St. Louis Cleveland Milwaukee Minneapolis San Diego Detroit Chicago Jacksonville -2.8% -11.7% -40% FHFA HOUSE PRICE INDEX, 1ST QUARTER 2007 2ND QUARTER 2013 100 95 90 85 80 Columbus MSA Ohio Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index. U.S 2013-Q1 2012-Q1 2012-Q3 2011-Q1 2011-Q3 2010-Q3 2010-Q1 2009-Q1 2009-Q3 2008-Q1 2008-Q3 2007-Q1 75 2007-Q3 Index: 1st Qtr. 2007 = 100.0 105 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% MSA HOUSE PRICE CHANGE, 2ND QUARTER 2011 TO 2ND QUARTER 2013 Detroit San Diego Austin Minneapolis Nashville-Davidson Charlotte United States Jacksonville Indianapolis Kansas City Oklahoma City Columbus Pittsburgh St. Louis Chicago Cleveland Raleigh Cincinnati Milwaukee 10.9% 8.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 8
  • 10. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 GDP AND INFLATION  Growth in U.S. GDP likely continued weak in the third HISTORIC AND FORECAST U.S. GDP; HISTORIC PERSONAL CONSUMPTION quarter. month low of 73.2, weighed down by the effects of 2014-Q4 2014-Q3 2014-Q2 2014-Q1 2013-Q4 2013-Q3 2013-Q2 2013-Q1 2012-Q4 of Consumer Sentiment fell in October to a ten- 2012-Q3 The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index 2012-Q2 2010-Q1 estimate.  -1% -2% 2012-Q1 substantiially higher than the initial 1.7 percent Personal Cons. Exp. 0% 2011-Q4 second-quarter growth was 2.5 percent, GDP 1% 2011-Q3 chart also shows that the revised estimate of 2% 2011-Q2 third-quarter GDP to be 2.0 percent. However, the 3% 2011-Q1 economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect 2010-Q4 7 by the shutdown. As the chart to the right shows, 5% 4% 2010-Q3 Domestic Product (GDP) was delayed to November 6% 2010-Q2 Release of the preliminary estimate of U.S. Gross Annualized Change (Percent)  Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey. the government shutdown.  U.S. GDP growth to improve slightly into 2014: The October Wall Street Journal economic forecasting survey expected GDP growth to improve to 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter, but the survey was conducted early in the CPI INFLATION, LARGE MIDWEST CITIES month, before the length of the shutdown was known. 2013-Q3 2013-Q2 2013-Q1 2012-Q4 2012-Q3 2012-Q2 was unchanged at 1.8 percent. 2012-Q1 third quarter. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) 1% 0% 2011-Q4 Overall inflation fell to 1.4 percent from 1.6 percent in the 2011-Q3 high than too low.  Excl. food & energy (core) 1% 2011-Q2 believed that their forecast was more likely to be too All items 2% 2011-Q1 previous surveys, 85 percent of the economists polled 2% 2010-Q4 remained at a very low 16 percent. However, contrary to 3% 2010-Q3 of the chance of a recession during the next 12 months 3% 2010-Q2 but still not strong. The economists' average assessment 4% 2010-Q1 percent, better than the 2.0 percent expected for 2013, 4% Annualized Change (Percent) Growth during 2014 was expected to average 2.8 Source: Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 9
  • 11. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 COLUMBUS 2020 PERFORMANCE | PROJECTS JAN-SEP 2013 In the first nine months of 2013, Columbus 2020 added 174 NUMBER OF PROJECTS STARTED (2012 v. 2013) FIRST-TIME VISITS (2012 v. 2013) new projects to the pipeline and hosted 44 first-time visits 15 50 44 30 20 11 12 40 25 25 19 27 24 27 21 19 20 13 11 18 16 28 17 9 23 20 6 6 5 6 15 7 10 2012 2012 PROJECTS ACTIVE AT END OF EACH MONTH 120 82 80 82 80 2 59 57 58 2013 96 85 82 68 70 68 60 40 4 PROJECTS ACTIVE AT END OF EACH MONTH BY SECTOR 89 86 80 77 75 69 60 64 57 42 81 68 64 54 57 85 49 52 55 57 39 60 67 59 40 20 20 Sep Jul Aug Jun May Mar Apr Feb Dec Jan 2013 Oct Nov Sep Jul Aug 0 0 Jun with 27 percent. 3 100 103 90 100 of September, followed headquarters and business services 4 6 6 5 4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Apr 2012 Manufacturing represented 45 percent of projects at the end 5 4 2013 September 2013. The numbers for September and going standards on how a project is classified as active. 4 7 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec forward are affected by the application of more stringent 6 8 2 3 0 Columbus 2020 had 128 active projects at the end of 10 9 30 May from companies and/or their location consultants. Manufacturing Existing New HQ & Business Services Logistics Science & Technology 10
  • 12. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 COLUMBUS 2020 PERFORMANCE | DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES JAN-SEP 2013 In the third quarter of 2013, the Columbus 2020 team 2013 Q3 COMPLETED ACTIVITIES 2013 Q4 PLANNED ACTIVITIES EXISTING BUSINESS VISITS CONDUCTED BY SECTOR EXISTING BUSINESS VISITS CONDUCTED BY PLACE traveled across the U.S. and the globe, visiting 14 U.S. cities and Japan. Visits included business development missions, industry conferences, existing headquarter visits and consultant and active project calls. The Japan mission included meetings with more than 40 companies and participation in the Midwest U.S.-Japan Association Annual Meeting. In the fourth quarter of 2013, the Columbus 2020 team will visit 10 U.S. cities, including business development missions to New York, Dallas, and Chicago, as well as international trips to Canada and Europe. Larger share of retention visits to manufacturers The Columbus 2020 team and our local economic development partners conducted a combined total of 321 100 2011 45% 15% 17% 24% visits to businesses in the Region during the first three 80 60 quarters of 2013. 2012 44% 28% 12% 16% 40 20 In the third quarter of 2013, manufacturing businesses represented more than half (52 percent) of visits, pulling the 0 Jan-Sep 2013 48% 21% 16% 14% year-to-date figure up to 48 percent. Compared to last year, 2013 to date has seen a larger share of visits to logistics Manufacturing HQ & Business Services companies, balancing a smaller share to headquarters and Logistics Science & Technology business service operations. Columbus 2020 Local ED Partner Both 11
  • 13. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 NOTABLE EXPANSIONS & LOCATIONS | JAN-SEP 2013 Columbus 2020 tracks economic development project announcements ED PROJECT ANNOUNCEMENTS BY SECTOR ED PROJECT ANNOUNCEMENTS - JOB CREATION in the Columbus Region. In the first three quarters of 2013, there were 63 project announcements yielding 7,916 jobs created or retained. Manufacturing projects represented 38 percent of projects announced 4,735 5,000 2011 44% 25% 12% 19% 4,000 so far in 2013, a share 5 percentage points higher than in 2012. 2012 33% 35% 20% 12% 19% 3,000 2,552 11% International projects comprise 24 percent of announcements in the 2,000 first three quarters of 2013, up somewhat from its 20 percent share in 2012. Jan-Sep 2013 38% 32% 629 1,000 Manufacturing Logistics 0 HQ & Business Services Science & Technology ED PROJECT ANNOUNCEMENTS, COUNT BY MUNICIPALITY Attract Expand Retain ED PROJECT ANNOUNCEMENTS, COUNT BY PLACE 25 20 23 18 13 15 9 10 5 0 Columbus Dublin Rest of Franklin Rest of Region 12
  • 14. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 NOTABLE EXPANSIONS & LOCATIONS | JAN-SEP 2013 (BOLD = Projects announced in Q3 2013) NO. JOBS TYPE 100 Attraction 10 Expansion COMPANY DESCRIPTION CITY CTY. Ace Hardware Corporation Hardware retailer West Jefferson Madison AcuSport Corporation Sporting goods distributor Bellefontaine Logan AGC Glass Company North America, Inc. Glass manufacturer for auto makers Bellefontaine Logan 20 Expansion American Howa Kentucky Transportation equipment manufacturer Delaware Delaware NA Expansion AMG Industries, Inc. Automotive assemblies, exhaust tips Mt. Vernon Knox 10 Expansion Ascena Retail Group, Inc. Apparel retailer New Albany Licking 251 Retention/Expansion Avnet, Inc. Aftermarket services for the technology supply chain Groveport Franklin 625 Retention/Expansion Bank of America Corporation Commercial lending in the health care sector Westerville Delaware 38 Expansion Cellco Partnership (Verizon) Information services and software Hilliard Franklin 2,000 Retention/Expansion Century Insurance Group Financial services Westerville Franklin 27 Expansion Compass Datacenters Wholesale colocation data center New Albany Franklin 26 Attraction Coyne Graphic Finishing Manufacturer of product displays Mt. Vernon Knox 6 Expansion Cyclone Power Technologies Developer of cyclone engine Lancaster Fairfield 84 Attraction Decillion Healthcare Specialty pharmacy Dublin Franklin 18 Attraction Diamond Hill Capital Management, Inc. Financial services Columbus Franklin 10 Expansion 22 Expansion Duet Health Information services and software Columbus Franklin Dynamit Technologies LLC Technology services and software Columbus Franklin 55 Retention/Expansion TBD TBD 95 Expansion Exel Direct Expedient Data Centers Information services and software Upper Arlington Franklin 4 Expansion Ezdure Bamboo Products (USA) LLC Bamboo flooring Dublin Franklin 8 Attraction FCX Performance, Inc. Distributor of process flow equipment Columbus Franklin 34 Retention/Expansion G-TEKT North America Corporation R&D for structural body parts for motor vehicles TBD TBD 77 Attraction G-TEKT North America Corporation Structural body parts of motor vehicles West Jefferson Madison 23 Attraction Harry and David Direct marketing and e-commerce Hebron Licking 18 Expansion HD Supply Facilities Maintenance Ltd. Supplier to commercial residential projects Groveport Franklin 120 Retention/Expansion HealthSpot, Inc. Health care stations Dublin Franklin 60 Expansion Expansion Expansion Highlights for Children, Inc. Children's educational books Columbus Franklin 50 Honda of America Mfg., Inc. Production of Honda Accord Sedan and Coupe and Acura TL. Marysville Union 50 13
  • 15. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 NOTABLE EXPANSIONS & LOCATIONS | JAN-SEP 2013 (BOLD = Projects announced in Q3 2013) NO. JOBS TYPE Franklin 27 Expansion Logan 20 Expansion Knox 135 Expansion Franklin 500 Expansion Groveport Franklin 36 Expansion Dublin Franklin 20 Expansion 170 Attraction COMPANY DESCRIPTION CITY CTY. International Engineering Group LLC Plastic injection molds Hilliard ISS America, Inc. Manufacturer of park plug cylinders Bellefontaine JELD-WEN, Inc. Manufacturer of vinyl windows and doors Mt. Vernon JPMorgan Chase Financial services Dublin Komar Industries, Inc. Compactors and shredders LSP Technologies, Inc. Developer of materials-processing technology for aerospace and power generation OEMs lululemon athletica inc Consumer products Columbus Franklin Marne Plastics, LLC Manufacturer of plastic and rubber products Columbus Franklin 3 Expansion MBA Focus Recruitment technology solutions Dublin Franklin 4 Expansion Mediu LLC Call center, consulting services provider Worthington Franklin 18 Expansion Molina Healthcare, Inc. Health care providers Columbus Franklin 300 Expansion National Church Residences Head office of housing nonprofit organization Upper Arlington Franklin 188 Expansion Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Biopharmaceuticals Dublin Franklin 60 Retention/Expansion Novotec Recycling LLC Recycled materials Columbus Franklin 235 Retention/Expansion Persistent Systems Ltd. Software product engineering and development Dublin Franklin 30 Attraction Expansion Phoenix Electrotek Manufacturer of wiring harnesses and cable assemblies Lancaster Fairfield 25 Pillar Technology Group, LLC Strategic business consultant and software developer Columbus Franklin 40 Expansion Expansion Precision CNC Metal parts for consumer goods or machines Lancaster Fairfield 9 Print Syndicate LLC E-commerce of custom design t-shirts and products Columbus Franklin 165 Retention/Expansion Proform Industries, Ltd. Transportation equipment manufacturer Columbus Franklin 178 Retention/Expansion Safelite Group, Inc. Headquarters, contact center, and automotive glass shops Columbus Franklin 350 Expansion Spectrum Commercial Coatings Full service commercial and industrial coating contractor Columbus Franklin 30 Expansion SpeedFC, Inc. End-to-end e-commerce services Etna Township Licking 492 Retention/Expansion Stanley Electric U.S. Co. Automotive parts manufacturer London Madison 150 Expansion Tarrier Foods Inc. Manufactures candy toppings Columbus Franklin 25 Expansion Team Gemini LLC Renewable energy, landfill digester Grove City Franklin 80 Attraction Expansion Retention/Expansion Teleperformance Customer contact center Dublin Franklin 500 The Kroger Co. Kroger Pharmacy's central fulfillment site Columbus Franklin 126 14
  • 16. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q3 2013 NOTABLE EXPANSIONS & LOCATIONS | JAN-SEP 2013 (BOLD = Projects announced in Q3 2013) NO. JOBS TYPE Franklin 12 Expansion Franklin 13 Attraction Columbus Franklin 20 Expansion Fredericktown Knox 20 Expansion Railroad tank car manufacturer and repair Marion Marion 30 Expansion Oil and gas storage tanks Bremen Fairfield 24 Expansion Franklin 40 Expansion COMPANY DESCRIPTION CITY CTY. Thomas & Marker Construction Co. Construction company Upper Arlington Toyo System Rechargeable battery testing systems Columbus Traycer Diagnostic Systems Inc. Information services and software UMD Automated Systems State-of-the-art material handling and conveyor systems Union Tank Car Company Westerman, Inc. Zipline Logistics LLC Logistics service provider TBD 15