Columbus 2020 Q4 Report 2012

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Our 2012 Q4 report, with updates on job growth, industry sectors, and more.

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Columbus 2020 Q4 Report 2012

  1. 1. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q4 2012
  2. 2. Th e QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q4 2012EMPLOYMENT, LABOR FORCE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES TOTAL PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COLUMBUS REGION UNEMPLOYMENT Columbus metro area employment declines in the RATE fourth quarter: Columbus MSA employment fell 5,200 (0.6%) in the fourth quarter, while statewide and national 12% 102.0 employment increased 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. 10% 100.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 Employment growth in the 12 months of 2012 was 16,200 98.0 8% (1.8%) for the MSA, 1.8% for Ohio, and 1.4% for the U.S. 96.0 6% Columbus Region unemployment rate unchanged 94.0 from September: The 11- 4% 92.0 seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 5.8% in 2% 90.0 December, compared to a 6.7% Ohio rate and a 7.8% U.S. 88.0 0% 4/08 10/08 4/09 7/08 10/09 4/10 4/11 10/12 7/11 4/12 1/10 7/09 7/12 1/08 1/09 10/10 10/11 1/12 7/10 1/11 rate. 4/08 4/09 4/10 7/10 10/11 4/12 1/08 4/11 1/09 10/10 7/11 1/12 7/08 10/08 7/09 10/09 1/11 7/12 10/12 1/10 The number of employed residents fell 15,100 from September while the labor force declined 6,500, Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus Region Ohio U.S. maintaining the unemployment rate at its September Source: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Stats. level. Seasonal adjustment of MSA employment by Regionomics LLC. Seasonal adjustment of regional rate by Regionomics LLC. Gap between normal and actual labor force growth continues to widen: The difference between reported labor force and the level assuming normal growth COLUMBUS REGION LABOR FORCE averaged 56,000 during the quarter, up slightly from 55,000 during the third quarter. 1,120 1,070 Thousands 1,020 970 920 The Columbus 2020 economic update for the fourth 10/08 10/09 4/08 4/09 4/11 10/10 10/12 7/08 7/09 7/11 4/12 1/09 4/10 7/12 10/11 1/08 7/10 1/10 1/11 1/12 quarter of 2012 covers regional economic data and economic development activities year to date, with a Labor force focus on October to December. The analysis of the Labor force, normal growth Resident employment regional economy (pages 1 to 9) was prepared by Bill Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Stats. LaFayette, Ph.D., RegionomicsTM LLC. Seasonal adjustment of regional rate by Regionomics LLC. 1
  3. 3. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q4 2012EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRYMSA SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, LOGISTICS: TRANSPORTATION, MANUFACTURINGDECEMBER 2012 WAREHOUSING & WHOLESALE 110.0 110.0 Other Logistics 13% 9% 105.0 Manufacturing 105.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 7% 100.0 100.0 95.0 Retail trade Professional & 11% 95.0 90.0 business svcs 13% 85.0 90.0 Computer 80.0 design & 85.0 75.0 Government related svcs 16% 3% 80.0 70.0 10/08 4/11 4/08 7/09 10/12 4/09 10/09 4/10 7/08 7/11 4/12 1/08 1/09 7/12 1/10 7/10 10/10 10/11 1/12 1/11 4/09 10/09 10/11 4/12 1/08 1/09 10/08 1/10 4/10 4/11 1/12 10/12 4/08 7/09 7/08 7/10 10/10 1/11 7/11 7/12 Finance & insurance Leisure & 6% Healthcare & hospitality social 10% Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus MSA Ohio US assistance 13%PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES COMPUTER DESIGN & RELATED SERVICES FINANCE & INSURANCE 110.0 150.0 110.0 105.0 140.0 105.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 130.0 100.0 100.0 120.0 95.0 95.0 110.0 90.0 90.0 100.0 85.0 85.0 90.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 10/08 4/09 7/09 10/09 10/10 10/12 4/08 7/08 4/10 7/10 1/11 4/12 7/12 1/08 1/09 4/11 10/11 1/12 1/10 7/11 10/08 10/08 4/11 4/08 10/09 10/12 4/08 10/09 4/11 7/09 7/08 4/09 7/09 4/10 7/11 7/11 4/12 10/12 7/08 4/09 4/10 10/10 4/12 7/12 1/08 7/10 1/08 1/09 1/09 1/10 1/10 10/10 1/11 10/11 10/11 7/12 1/12 7/10 1/11 1/12 Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus MSA Ohio USSource: Current Employment Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.Seasonal adjustment of MSA employment by Regionomics LLC. 2
  4. 4. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q4 2012EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (continued)  Charts on pages 2 and 3 show that the Columbus metro HEALTHCARE & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE LEISURE & HOSPITALITY area experienced greater-than-average employment gains in logistics, healthcare, and finance and insurance, 130.0 110.0 and government. The MSA suffered losses in business 125.0 105.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 120.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 services (including IT) leisure, retail, and manufacturing. 115.0 100.0  All estimates will be revised, perhaps significantly, March 110.0 105.0 95.0 18. The Q1 report will discuss these revisions. 100.0  The 1,200 net loss in retail indicates smaller-than- 90.0 95.0 average impacts from holiday hiring. 90.0 85.0 85.0  The 1,000-job gain in healthcare brings the gain for the 80.0 80.0 4/08 7/08 4/09 10/10 7/09 4/12 4/10 7/10 1/11 7/12 1/08 10/09 4/11 10/08 1/09 7/11 10/12 10/11 1/10 1/12 4/08 4/09 4/10 4/12 7/10 4/11 10/11 1/08 1/09 7/09 10/09 10/10 1/12 7/08 10/08 1/10 7/11 1/11 7/12 10/12 year to 6,500 (5.7%).  Government employment, which has been unusually volatile, gave back most of its third-quarter gain. Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus MSA Ohio US Federal, state, and local government employment each declined.Industry MSA empl. chg. OH US GOVERNMENT RETAIL No. % % % 110.0Logistics +1,900 +2.3 +1.2 +0.3 110.0Manufacturing -400 -0.7 +0.5 +0.3 105.0 105.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0 Index: 1/08 = 100.0Business services -2,300 -1.5 +0.2 +0.6 100.0 100.0 Computer-related -1,200 -1.2 -0.2 +1.3 95.0 95.0Finance & insurance +1,200 +2.1 +1.0 +0.3 90.0 90.0Healthcare & social assistance +1,000 +0.9 +0.5 +0.7 85.0 85.0Leisure & hospitality -900 -1.0 -1.6 +0.6 80.0 80.0Government -2,000 -1.3 +0.2 -0.4 4/08 10/08 10/09 10/12 4/09 4/11 7/08 4/10 10/10 7/09 7/11 7/10 4/12 1/08 1/09 1/10 10/11 1/12 7/12 1/11 4/08 4/09 4/10 10/11 1/08 10/08 10/09 4/12 1/09 1/10 4/11 1/12 7/08 7/09 7/10 10/10 7/11 10/12 1/11 7/12Retail -1,200 -1.2 +0.2 +0.6 Columbus MSA Ohio US Columbus MSA Ohio US 3
  5. 5. QUARTERLY ECONOMIC UPDATE | Q4 2012 COLUMBUS REGION PER CAPITA INCOME  The charts on pages 4 and 5 show growth in per-capita DELAWARE COUNTY FAIRFIELD COUNTY personal income (PCPI, adjusted for inflation) over the 60,000 46,000 last decade for residents of the Columbus Region and 44,000 55,000 each of its component counties. 42,000 Constant dollars  As a result of weak employment growth prior to the Constant dollars 50,000 40,000 recession, regional PCPI fell below the national 45,000 38,000 average in 2004. However, the 2009 decline was only 36,000 4.2% versus 7.0% for the U.S., and growth subsequently 40,000 has been 5.2%, slightly better than average. 34,000 35,000  As the dominant county, Franklin Countys growth 32,000 pattern is similar to the regions. However, PCPI peaked 30,000 30,000 2010 2011 2007 2008 2001 2010 2003 2006 2009 2004 2002 2005 2011 2001 2003 2008 2004 2006 2007 2009 2005 2002 in 2006 before falling 7.0% in the following two years and rising only 3.4% after the recession. Delaware Ohio U.S. Fairfield Ohio U.S. COLUMBUS REGION FRANKLIN COUNTY KNOX COUNTY 46,000 46,000 44,000 44,000 44,000 42,000 42,000 42,000 40,000 Constant dollarsConstant dollars Constant dollars 38,000 40,000 40,000 36,000 38,000 38,000 34,000 36,000 36,000 32,000 34,000 34,000 30,000 32,000 32,000 28,000 30,000 30,000 26,000 2010 2011 2003 2008 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2009 2007 2011 2010 2001 2002 2005 2007 2003 2006 2008 2004 2009 2010 2011 2001 2004 2007 2008 2003 2006 2009 2002 2005 Region Ohio U.S. Franklin Ohio U.S. Knox Ohio U.S. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4

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