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Q3 2012 RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT SHANGHAI INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY MARKET 上海工业市场 The Macroeconomic Environment 宏观经济环境 The unstable global economic situation continued to 中国经济在第三季度中继续受到不稳定国际经济 affect China’s economy in the third quarter, reflected 形势的影响，期间出口增速有所放缓。 in shrinking growth of exports. The central government took measures to counteract 为了应对不明朗经济形势的影响，中央政府自 these external effects, including a cut to the bench- 2012年7月以后再次采取包括降低市场基准利率在 mark interest rate in July (the second this year), the 内的一系列宏观经济刺激政策。中央政府表示将加 promotion of tax reduction policies that may eliminate 快“税改增”的税收制度改革以减少企业的税负 a business tax, and the approval of 25 major 负担，并于九月批准了25个主要基础建设项目。Market Indicators infrastructure projects, announced in September.市场指标 2012 Q3 Review 2012 Q4 Outlook According to official statistics, net profits for China’s 国家统计局数据显示，1-7月份，全国规模以上工 2012年三季度回顾 2012年四季度预期 industrial output (above designated size) declined by 业企业实现利润较去年同期下降2.7%。相关人员 2.7 percent year on year in the first seven months of 表示，出现工业利润下降的主要原因包括市场需 Supply 2012. A Ministry official cited insufficient demand, 求放缓、生产成本上升和销售价格的下滑。 供应 rising production costs, and sliding sales prices as theVacancy Rate primary reasons for this. 空置率 Rental The Shanghai government has announced that it will 上海政府强调将继续深入推进经济向服务业、高 租金 continue the ongoing restructuring of its economy 科技驱动转型的进程。并计划将进一步加大在研 towards service industries and advanced manufacturing. 究与实验发展和技术创新上的投资。 The city plans to increase its investment in research & development and technological innovation, and establish a city-level industrial research organization.Overall Market Review 整理市场回顾Economic indicators suggested China’s manufacturing sector experienced 经济指标显示中国制造业在2012年七月至八月间表现疲弱。weak performance during the period from July 2012 to August 2012.The official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by the National Bureau 由国家统计局发布的官方采购经理人指数（PMI）在8月跌至了2012以来的最of Statistics, fell to 49.2 in August, the weakest reading for 2012 and down from 低点，为49.2，而该指数曾在今年4月创下了连续13个月的最高值，为53.3。Aprils 13-month high of 53.3. August was the first month this year that the 值得注意的是，今年8月的官方PMI读数首次位于50点枯荣线下方。以中小型official PMI has fallen below the demarcation point of 50, separating expansion 企业为主要数据采集对象的汇丰中国采购经理人指数（HSBE CHINA PMI），from contraction. The HSBC China PMI, generally considered to reflect small 在2012年前8个月的度数均位于枯荣线下方。and medium size businesses, has stayed below 50 for the first eight months of2012.Despite uncertainty in the global economic situation as a whole, the average 虽然全球经济前景并不明朗，但上海工业地产市场物业平均租金在本季度中保rental rate in Shanghai’s industrial real estate market was stable during this 持了稳定的表现，主要原因是本地租户和投资者的需求保持稳定且市场供应任quarter, amid stable demand from domestic occupiers and investors and 然处于受限的状态。continued supply limitations.Average asking rentals for ground floor high quality facilities increased very 高端仓储物流物业首层租金较上季度微涨至每天每平方米人民币1.15元，同期slightly, to RMB 1.15 per square meter per day in the logistics sector, and to 高端厂房物业首层租金稳定在每天每平方米人民币0.89元的水平。RMB 0.89 per square meter per day in the workshop sector.Shanghai’s industrial land sales market was relatively active in the third quarter. 相比二季度共实现181万平方米工业用地成交的情况，上海工业土地交易市场A total of 2.88 million square meters of first hand land was sold during July and 在第三季度中表现较为活跃。仅在7、8两个月，政府通过招、拍、挂的方式共August, representing an estimated total permitted gross floor area of approxi- 出让了约288万平方米的工业用地，合计计划建筑面积约为443万平方米。mately 4.43 million square meters. By contrast, a total of only 1.81 millionsquare meters of land was sold in the second quarter.Of the transactions that occurred, the weighted average accommodation cost 本季度中成交的土地交易所对应的楼板价区间约为每平方米人民币144元至recorded during the period was approximately RMB 360 per square meter, 2,496元，所对应的加权平均楼板价约为每平方米人民币360元。成交地块主though prices ranged from approximately RMB 144 to RMB 2,496 per square 要位于奉贤、金山、青浦区，以及浦东南汇地区。meter. Transacted plots were primarily located in Fengxian, Jinshan and Qingpudistricts, and Pudong’s Nanhui area.The highest land prices were seen for a plot in Pudong’s Jinqiao area, a plot in 本季度中以高价成交的多幅地块中一幅位于浦东金桥地区、一幅位于浦东曹路Pudong’s Caolu Town and three plots in Minhang district, where bidding 镇、另有三幅位于闵行区内，土地成交均价分别达到了每平方米人民币2,995reached RMB 2,995, RMB 1,561, and RMB 1,078 per square meter respectively. 元、人民币1,561元以及每平方米人民币1,078元。综合考虑成交地价以及其他The transacted prices indicated that higher end R&D or business park type 因素，上述多幅地块将可能被用于开发高端研发或商务园区用物业。developments are likely to be planned for such sites. www.colliers.com
SHANGHAI｜Q3 2012｜INDUSTRIAL Figure 1: China Monthly PMI, 2012 Figure 2: Shanghai Cumulative Gross Output Value of Industry – 2012 Growth (YoY) 图1： 2012年中国月度PMI走势图 图2： 2012年上海累计工业总产值同比增长率54.0 15.00%53.0 10.00%52.0 5.00%51.050.0 0.00% May-11 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-1249.0 -5.00%48.0 -10.00%47.046.0 -15.00% Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing Source: Shanghai Statistics Bureau 数据来源: 中国物流与采购联合会 数据来源：上海统计局Logistics Sector 物流业Supply in Shanghai’s logistics market remained limited during the third quarter. 第三季度中上海仓储物流物业市场供应依然受限。高端仓促物流物业基本上High-quality logistics facilities were typically fully occupied, and demand 仍然处于满租状态，而目前的市场需求业已超出了市场的实际供应水平。仓outstripped the amount of suitable first hand land available for sale. Logistics 储物流行业开发商和潜在租户持续在拥有更充分土地和高质量物业储备的上developers and would-be occupiers continued to move to nearby cities in the 海周边城市中寻找合适机会。Yangtze River Delta, where both land supply and available facilities are abundant.In Shanghai, the average asking price for ground floor premises in high quality 包括苏州、杭州、南京、无锡、太仓、嘉兴、宁波和昆山在内的上海周边城facilities in a basket of cities bordering Shanghai rose slightly by one percent to 市的高端仓储物流物业首层租金较上季度上涨约1%，平均租金达每天每平RMB 0.89 per square meter per day. This basket includes Suzhou, Hangzhou, 方米人民币0.89元。Nanjing, Wuxi, Taicang, Jiaxing, Ningbo, and Kunshan.The average asking price for logistics property grew 2.7 percent quarter on 本季度，高力国际检测下的多个上海仓储物流物业市场的平均租金环比上涨quarter to RMB 1.15 per square meter per day. The rise was primarily driven 2.7%，达每天每平方米人民币1.15元。此番上涨主要是受到浦东、闵行、by an increase in asking rental of up to four percent in Pudong, Minhang, 嘉定、奉贤和青浦区内的租金最高环比上涨4%的影响。而松江、金山和宝Jiading, Fengxian, and Qingpu districts. Asking rentals remained unchanged in 山区的平均租金较上季度没有变化。Songjiang, Jinshan, and Baoshan districts.Transactions 成交情况Transaction volume in the logistics sector was reduced in comparison to the 本季度中仓储物流物业的交易量较第二季度有所下跌，可能由于受到市场供second quarter, with a limited number of completed transactions, possibly as a 小于求局面的影响，仅有少数几个案例成交。result of inadequate supply (as opposed to lack of demand).In July, Guangdong Swire Cold Chain Logistics acquired approximately 45,457 太古冷链物流于今年7月以总价人民币2,356万元购入位于上海奉贤区的一块square meters of land in Fengxian district at a total cost of RMB 23.56 million. 面积约为45,457平方米的土地，折合楼板价约每平方米人民币271元。The transaction indicates an accommodation cost of approximately RMB 271per square meter.Shanghai Yuang Chang Storage purchased a site of approximately 10,573 上海源昶仓储有限公司以总价人民币462万元购入同属上海奉贤区的一块面square meters for logistics use in Fengxian district for a reported RMB 4.62 积约为10,573平方米的土地，折合地价约每平方米人民币436元，楼板价约million in August. The transaction indicates a cost of approximately RMB 436 每平方米人民币292元。per square meter of land and an estimated accommodation cost of approxi-mately RMB 292 per square meter.Richemont Group, a luxury goods company, leased approximately 6,000 square 奢侈品公司历峰集团承租了嘉民集团位于上海浦东国际机场区域约6,000平meters of warehouse space from Goodman in the Shanghai Pudong Interna- 方米的高质量仓储物业。tional Airport area.Sinolog leased approximately 16,000 square meters of logistics space from an 星络亚洲物流有限公司从私人业主手中租下位于松江区内的约16,000平方米independent landlord in Songjiang district. 的仓储物流物业。A local third-party logistics company servicing Bosch Siemens leased approxi- 一个服务于博世西门子的第三方物流公司以每天每平方米1.2元的租金承租mately 10,000 square meters of logistics space from Blogis in Songjiang 宝湾物流旗下位于松江大港区域内约10,000平方米的仓储物流物业。district’s Dagang area for approximately RMB 1.2 per square meter per day.Market development 市场开发情况In July, FedEx Express expanded its operations facility at Shanghai Pudong 联邦快递（FedEx）于7月完成了其上海浦东国际机场操作中心的扩建工程。International Airport. The new facility comprises an office and warehouse area of 该操作中心拥有办公及仓储设施，总面积约17,375平方米，比原设施面积扩around 17,375 square meters, nearly 50 percent larger than the previous facility. 大近50%。In July, with a reported investment of US$ 175 million, DHL launched a new North 德国邮政敦豪（DHL）位于上海浦东国际机场的北亚枢纽于7月正式落成，新Asia hub at Pudong International Airport, creating the largest express hub in Asia. 建成的北亚枢纽共耗资1.75亿美元，是DHL在亚洲地区最大的物流处理中心。The fourth phase of Shanghai Premier Enterprises Park at Fengxian district’s 上海派米雷（奉贤）企业园区4期工程于7月正式开工。该园区位于奉贤星Spark Development Zone broke ground in July. The park has a total planned 火开发区内，规划总建筑面积约为11万平方米。该项目以单层厂房（局部building area of 110,000 square meters. The park typically attracts companies 三层）为主，可满足生产型企业的生产、研发、仓储等需求。involved in manufacturing, R&D, and warehousing.Aurora introduced a new logistics center in Jiading District’s Malu Town. The 震旦集团启用位于嘉定马陆镇的新物流中心，该中心占地约32,000平方米，new center sits on a site of 32,000 square meters, and provides Aurora with 将为震旦提供约18,000平方米的仓储面积。approximately 18,000 square meters of warehousing.P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 高力国际
SHANGHAI｜Q3 2012｜INDUSTRIALIn August, Goodman Group and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board jointly 嘉民集团与加拿大养老金计划投资委员会在8月宣布，双方共同注资嘉民中invested an additional US$ 500 million in Goodman China Logistics Holding. 国物流基金合计5亿美元。目前嘉民中国物流基金在中国国内共有约400万Goodman China Logistics Holding now has approximately four million square 平方米的在建仓储物流项目，据报道将在接下来的12个月中着手进一步建meters of logistics properties under development in China, and will reportedly 设约80万平方米的仓储物流物业。commence construction on a further 800,000 square meters of new logisticsfacilities in the next 12 months.GLP was also active during the third quarter of 2012. Several third-party 普洛斯在2012年第三季度中表现活跃。有多个第三方物流公司与普洛斯达logistics companies signed new lease contracts in GLP Taopu, the Pudong 成租赁协议，分别承租普洛斯旗下位于桃浦、浦东国际机场、虹桥北以及外airport area, Hongqiao North and Waigaoqiao Park for a combined total of 高桥的合计约50,000的物业。普洛斯于7月收购了因特尔位于外高桥的厂房，approximately 50,000 square meters. In July, GLP acquired Intel’s factory in 该厂房占地面积约150,000平方米。UPS已承租该设施内约5,000平方米的Waigaoqiao, covering a land area of approximately 150,000 square meters. 物业。目前普洛斯仅有有限的可供租赁物业位于上海。普洛斯仍有位于奉贤UPS Supply Chain has already leased approximately 5,000 square meters at 区海港地区达50,000平方米的高质量仓储物业在建设中，预计该物业将于this facility. Currently, GLP has limited space available for leasing in its parks 2012年底投入使用。located in the Shanghai. GLP is in the process of building up to 50,000 squaremeters of warehousing in Fengxian district’s Haigang area, which is expectedto launch at the end of 2012.In September, Shanghai Yupei Group confirmed that the company has fully 截止九月，上海宇培集团位于上海的仓储物流物业均处于满租的状态。leased all of its logistics premises in the Shanghai area.Figure 3: Average Logistics Rentals in Shanghai by District Figure 4: Average Logistics Rentals in Shanghai图3： 上海各区物流仓储物业平均租金水平 图4： 上海物流仓储物业租金走势图 Average Logis cs Rentals (LHS) Q/Q Growth Rate(RHS) RMB / sqm / day Major Logis cs Park Average Rental Rates RMB / sqm / day1.8 4.5% 1.41.6 4.0% 1.2 1.09 1.11 1.12 1.151.4 3.5% 1.06 1.03 0.99 1.01.2 3.0% 0.85 0.87 0.841.0 2.5% 0.80.8 2.0% 0.60.6 1.5% 0.40.4 1.0%0.2 0.5% 0.20.0 0.0% Minhang Jiading Qingpu Pudong Songjiang Fengxian Baoshan Jinshan Nanhui 0.0 ( ) 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research 数据来源：上海高力国际调研部 数据来源：上海高力国际调研部Manufacturing Sector 制造业Shanghai’s shift to high-end, high-output and high-tech manufacturing continued to 上海工业产业向高端、高产出预计高科技制造业转型给市场带来的影响仍在be reflected in the industrial real estate market. Several industrial sites were 延续。有多幅地块被属于新能源、生物医药以及新材料行业的企业购得。值acquired by companies involved in the new energy, bio-pharmaceutical and new 得注意的是，在第三季度中传统制造业企业在土地交易市场仍然有着较为活material sectors. Notably, traditional manufacturing companies were also active in 跃的表现。the land market in the third quarter.Several multinational companies established or relocated their headquarters or 本季度中有多家跨国企业宣布在上海成立他们的区域总部或者研发中心。纤R&D departments during the period. In July, polymer and fiber producer Invista 维材料制造商英威达于7月建成其位于青浦区的首家中国大陆的纺织应用研opened its first textile application research center in Qingpu district with a 究中心，据悉该中心建筑面积为3,000平方米，投资总额达730万美元。reported investment of US$ 7.3 million. The new center covers approximately3,000 square meters.In August, Shanghai’s municipal government signed an agreement with China Ocean 上海市人民政府与中国远洋运输（集团）总公司于8月在沪签署战略合作框Shipping (Group) to further the construction of an international shipping center and 架协议，双方将在国际航运中心建设、海洋工程装备产业发展等领域开展全stimulate further development of the ocean equipment engineering industry. Accord- 面战略合作。根据协议，中远集团将加大在沪投资强度。把上海作为中远集ing to the agreement, COSCO will increase its investment in Shanghai, and make the 团发展航运、物流、海洋工程技术研发和装备制造的战略基地。city its base for logistics, R&D, and manufacturing.Figure 5: Shanghai Average Workshop Rentals, Quarter on Quarter Growth by Sub-market Figure 6: Major Workshop Average Rental Rates in Shanghai图5： 上海各区块厂房租金及环比增长率 图6： 上海厂房物业租金走势图 Average Workshop Rentals (LHS) Q/Q Growth Rate(RHS) Major Workshop Average Rental Rates RMB / sqm / day RMB / sqm / day1.4 3.0% 1.0 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.9 0.861.2 0.84 2.5% 0.80 0.8 0.75 0.71 0.721.0 0.69 2.0% 0.70.8 0.6 1.5% 0.50.6 0.4 1.0%0.4 0.3 0.20.2 0.5% 0.10.0 0.0% 0.0 Minhang Jiading Qingpu Pudong Songjiang Fengxian Baoshan Jinshan Nanhui 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research Source: Colliers International Shanghai (CIS) Research 数据来源：上海高力国际调研部 数据来源：上海高力国际调研部高力国际 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3