• Like

Melbourne residential communities rfr h2 2012

  • 297 views
Uploaded on

 

  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
297
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0

Actions

Shares
Downloads
1
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT MELBOURNE COMMUNITIES Consumer Sentiment Defines Market The decline in the Melbourne residential land market has continued during the past 12 months due to low consumer sentiment as well as a drop in population growth. Positive consumer sentiment is vital to maintaining growth in residential land sales and is driven by factors including job security and lot values. Moreover, consumer sentiment generally reflects economic stability. With the recent economic uncertainty within the state over the last 12 months, as well as continued instability globally, consumer sentiment within Victoria has remained below the 100 point index, whereby the market is deemed to be in equilibrium, since February. Global capital markets remain volatile and job security tentative which is causing consumers to be cautious in regards to spending. Deloitte Access Economics notes, employment growth across the Melbourne Statistical Division has weakened from 1.1% since March 2010 to 0.2% at June 2012. This is forecast to remain stagnant between 0.2% and 0.3% until the end of 2013. Coupled with an increase in the unemployment rate from 5.1% to 5.3% over the year to June 2012 these factors have led to a further decline in sentiment. The inability of both developers and purchasers to obtain finance for new developments have also hurt the residential property market in Victoria. Banks are wary of providing finance, preferring to deal with those developers who have existing relationships. While on the retail side purchasers are expected to have larger deposits due to the removal of the First Home Owners Bonus from the State government in June 2012 which should see a reduction in first home buyers’ real purchasing power. With prevailing consumer sentiment not expected to change in the short to medium term, Evergreen, Truganina developers have continued to adjust prices to draw buyers back to the market albeit with One of only six new estates released in 2012, limited success. Evergreen is being marketed by Colliers International. Population growth has historically driven demand in the residential market as new residents entering the state have required housing according to the ABS. Overseas migration has been RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE RESIDENTIAL the largest component of overall population growth in Victoria according to the Australian Bureau COMMUNITIES MARKET: of Statistics (ABS), comprising an average of 62% of total population growth since 2004. WEST The Victorian population increased by 447,634 persons from the 2005 to 2009 financial years of which 65% consisted of overseas migration. However, since 2009 overseas migration has NORTH steadily declined, dropping by nearly 30,000 persons over the 2009 to 2010 financial year and SOUTH EAST a further 7,889 persons from 2010 to 2011. Over this same period the population growth level has decreased by a similar amount of persons which has led to decreased demand for residential property. KEY HIGHLIGHTS RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKET INDICATORS - SECOND HALF 2012 •  5 estates have sold out since the last 1 Region Median Price Sold to Date Remaining Yield* Number of Projects reporting period. West $205,000 10,715 26,344 32 •  f the current land estates operating in O Melbourne’s growth corridors, an estimated North $210,000 5,116 5,599 20 21,970 lots have sold. South East $198,750 6,151 10,715 24 • Median land prices have decreased by Total $205,000 21,982 42,658 76 $10,000 from $215,000 to $205,000 over the *Includes lots that have yet to sell and that have not been released to market. six months to December 2011 but increased ** Median prices exclude rebates 7% over the year. Source: Colliers International Research www.colliers.com.au/research
  • 2. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | MELBOURNE“On June 11 Reduced demand is also reflected in the housing approval levels recorded by the ABS. In Melbourne’s growth corridor building approval levels between January and July 2012 are2012 Minister for tracking below 2011 levels equivalent to 2,089 fewer approvals to date. The largest change has been recorded in the LGA of Wyndham where there has been an 80% reduction inPlanning Matthew approvals during 2012 from the same time last year. The smallest change in building approvals was recorded in the LGAs of Hume and Casey where there has only been a declineGuy proposed of 2% and 4% respectively. Colliers International anticipates building approval figures in 2012changes to will not reach the same levels as 2011 due to lower consumer sentiment as well as the removal of the First Home Owners Boost.the zoning Government policy on development is also changing and will affect the development of residential property throughout Victoria. On June 11 2012 Minister for Planning Matthew Guy proposed changes to the zoning of commercial, industrial, and residential land uses. Within the newof commercial, covenants residential land would be placed into one of three categories; the Residential Growth Zone, General Residential Zone and Neighbourhood Residential Zone.industrial, and The Neighbourhood Residential Zone will have the most stringent regulations including heightresidential land controls, consideration of minimum lot sizes and regulations on subdivision. The Residential Growth Zone will be introduced to make clear what areas in Victoria are being targeted foruses” densification. The biggest change with this system is the local councils’ ability to decide which areas will be categorised. With many councils opposed to densification it is anticipated that councils in the outer suburbs will zone themselves in the Neighbourhood Residential Zone, retarding growth. Currently these reforms are open to feedback, but it is assumed that after the consultation period ends in September 2012 implementation will be enforced. MELBOURNE STATISTICAL DIVISION EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 1.20% 1.10% 1.00% 0.80% Forecast 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.21% 0.04% 0.00% Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Source: Deloitte Access Economics HOUSE APPROVALS IN THE MELBOURNE GROWTH CORRIDORS 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 Number of approvals 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan - July 2012 Shire of Melton City of Wyndham City of Hume City of Whittlesea Shire of Cardinia City of Casey Source: Australian Bereau of Statistics COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 2
  • 3. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | MELBOURNE TRANSPORT AND INFRASTRUCTURE The most important infrastructure development in the Victorian pipeline is the $10 billion East West Link. The proposed 18 kilometre tunnel would connect the Eastern Freeway to the Western Ring Road and help alleviate traffic congestion across the Westgate Bridge. This would increase accessibility and reduce travel time to the Western suburbs, a key concern for potential buyers in this corridor. Currently, the Victorian Government is compiling a business case for the project in order to obtain funding from the Federal Government. The business case is expected to be completed early next year. Over the first half of 2012 several minor rail infrastructure projects were completed, including four new railway stations and the South Morang Rail Extension. The State Government has placed a focus on upgrading the rail system to help ease traffic congestion and encourage commuting from the outer suburbs of Melbourne. Over the next two years further upgrades to railway lines and two road projects are expected to be completed. Rail projects include the Sunbury Electrification Project in the North, which will add a metro service to the Northern growth corridor, more than doubling its capacity to transport individuals into Melbourne’s CBD, while the road infrastructure upgrades at Clyde Road and Hallam Road in the South East are also due for completion by December of this year. OUTER MELBOURNE INFRASTRUCTURE UPDATE Estimated Infrastructure Project Location Status Completion Current Description Date RAIL Sunbury Rail Electrification Northern Region Under Construction 2012 Electrification of the Sunbury line from Watergardens to Sunbury, enabling metro access from the Sunbury and Diggers Rest stations. The train stations will also be refurbished allowing for an extra 500 car parks at the Diggers Rest Station and a further 100 car parks at the Sunbury Station. Cranbourne East Rail South Eastern Region Planning N/A The project will extend the Cranbourne rail line to Cranbourne East Extension and includes a new station at Cranbourne East. Regional Rail Link Western Region Under Construction 2016 The Regional Rail Link project aims to give Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat trains their own dedicated tracks through the metropolitan system from Sunshine to Southern Cross Station. The line will also incorporate the construction of two stations at Tarneit and Wyndham Vale. Once complete the Regional Rail Link will provide services for up to an extra 9000 passengers during peak times. Williams Landing Project Western Region Under Construction 2012 Creation of a new premium train station at the Williams Landing Town Centre. The project includes plans for 500 car spaces as well as a designated bus terminal and taxi ranks. The station will be located on the Werribee line. ROAD North-East Link Northern Region Planning N/A Planning has commenced for a road connection between the Metropolitan Ring Road in Greensborough and the Eastern Freeway in Bulleen. The road will provide a section of the major orbital road surrounding Melbourne connecting new employment hubs providing easier access for residents of the Northern suburbs to the Melbourne Airport. Aitken Boulevard Northern Region Under Construction 2013 A Private Public Partnership between the Federal Government and Peet Ltd., Stockland and Lend Lease has been put in place to build a new street between Mickleham and Sydney Roads. The new street will improve traffic flow and connectivity in the area while significantly reducing congestion for local residents. It will also act as a vital link between new communities in Craigieburn, providing easy access to amenities within new Northern communities. East West Link Western Region Planning N/A Planning has begun for a tunnel to connect the Western Ring Road to the City Link Freeway. The tunnel would alleviate major traffic from Westgate bridge improving access to the Outer Western suburbs. M80 Upgrade Northern and Western Region Under Construction 2015 The creation of new lanes to ensure three to six lanes in each direction as well as new dedicated merging lanes to increase safety. Hallam Road Upgrade South Eastern Region Under Construction 2013 The number of lanes will be increased to three between Pound and Ormond Roads. A shared bus lane/left turn lane will be constructed. Cooper Street - Epping Northern Region Planning 2013 An additional lane will be added to Cooper Street between the Hume Freeway and Edgars Road. Dedicated bus lanes for on and off ramps to Hume Freeway will be added to provide less congested roadways for the Northern Regions residents.Source: Department of Transport/ Melbourne Water/ South East Water/ City West Water/ Colliers International Research COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
  • 4. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | MELBOURNE OUTER MELBOURNE INFRASTRUCTURE UPDATE Estimated Infrastructure Project Location Status Completion Current Description Date ROAD (CONTINUED) Outer Melbourne Ring Road/ Northern and Western Region Planning N/A A proposal has been made to accommodate a 100 kilometre long high- E6 Transport Corridor speed transport link for pedestrians and freight in Melbournes North and West, creating an opportunity for new road and rail transport links through the Werribee, Melton, Tullamarine, Craigieburn/Mickleham and Epping/ Thomastown areas. Construction is not likely to commence until 2020. Narre Warren - Cranbourne South Eastern Region Committed 2015 Currently in pre-construction phase the project will encompass the Road creation of three lanes each way between Ormond and Glasscocks Roads, with two lanes each way for other sections, intersection improvements at Ormond and Glasscocks Roads and a shared path for cyclists and pedestrians along the east side of Narre Warren-Cranbourne Road. Project funding has been confirmed, pre-construction planning will continue during 2012 and major works are likely to start by late 2013. Yan Yean Road Northern Region Planning N/A A planning study is currently underway to identify and determine the road reservation requirements for the future duplication of Yan Yean Road between Diamond Creek Road and north of Kurrak Road. The study will be used to create a proposal to construct a four lane divided roadway. Plenty Road Upgrade Northern Region Under Construction 2012 Widen Plenty Road into a four lane divided roadway from Gordons Road to Riverdale Boulevard. Due for completion in Spring 2012. Palmers Road Rail Overpass Western Region Under Construction 2012 Part of the Williams Landing Project. The project involves the extension of Palmers Road beyond the Princes Freeway and across the Werribee rail line as well as the widening of the overpass from three lanes to five lanes. Clyde Road Upgrade South Eastern Region Under Construction 2013 Two additional lanes will be created each way between High Street and Kangan Drive. The High Street and Enterprise Avenue intersections will be upgraded. WATER West Werribee Dual Water Western Region Under Construction 2014 The project will provide recycled water to Melbournes Western suburbs Supply Project and includes several major initiatives including: the creation of a salt reduction plant and pump station at the Western Treatment Plant; laying approximately 34 kilometres of transfer mains for both the recycled and drinking water; and building storage tanks for recycled and drinking water storage. Cardinia South Sewerage South Eastern Region Planning N/A Capacity constraints in the Lang Lang and Koo Wee Rup treatment plants Project are currently being investigated. Troups Creek Stormwater Western Region Under Construction 2012 An on-site treatment facility is being built as a joint partnership Recycling Project between Melbourne Water and Places Victoria to produce recycled stormwater for use in the brown water system.Source: Department of Transport/ Melbourne Water/ South East Water/ City West Water/ Colliers International Research MELBOURNE COMMUNITIES Hume Whittlesea Nillumbik Melton Metropolitan Yarra Ranges Inner Metropolitan City Wyndham Knox Cardinia CaseyPrepared by Colliers International Research COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 4
  • 5. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | MELBOURNE Western Region Colliers International has identified 32 operating estates in the Western Region of Melbourne that are currently under construction. Upon completion these estates will comprise approximately 46,008 lots. This is a decrease in total lots from Colliers International’s last report whereby a total of 47,991 lots were identified. Of these estates approximately 23% of the stock available has already sold. During the past six months seven estates (Alamanda, Arndell at Trugnanina, Tarneit Gardens, The Reserve, The Rise, Wyndella, and Riverina) have practically completed and have hence been removed from analysis in this report. The Point Cook Thirty30 estate has ceased construction since the last reporting period and has also been removed from this analysis.Maplewood, Melton Of the current estates available one is nearing completion; Featherbrook. This estate has107 lots have already transacted since Maplewood approximately 25 lots left remaining for sale.launched in 2011. Two new estates have been released to the market over the past six months. Gateway, developed by Central Equity, and Evergreen Estate are located in the suburb of Truganina and will comprise only 338 lots upon completion. Released in February this year, Gateway has already sold 52 lots (24%) in the first two stages. Over 100 sales have occurred at both Allura and Atherstone since the last reporting period, having sold 120 and 105 each respectively. Featherbrook, Forsyth Park, Eynesbury Estate, and Aspire have all sold over 40 lots since the last report. The Western Region of Melbourne continues to maintain its competitiveness in the market offering the lowest weighted average asking price of the three corridors. From a sample of 160 lots currently available for sale in the region the weighted average asking price was $205,344, excluding incentives, and the weighted average lot size was 438m2. WESTERN REGION MARKET ACTIVITY - RESIDENTIAL ESTATES Year Estate Remaining Estate Name Suburb LGA Total Number Number Sold Commenced Yield* Alamanda Point Cook Wyndham 2007 1,500 N/A N/A Bellevue Truganina Wyndham 2011 325 59 266 Bluestone Wyndham Vale Wyndham 2008 1,200 N/A N/A Featherbrook Point Cook Wyndham 2007 1,100 1,075 25 Heartlands Tarneit Wyndham 2010 1,100 N/A N/A Kingsford Point Cook Wyndham 2009 567 N/A N/A Manhattan Place Tarneit Wyndham 2009 187 N/A N/A Manor Lakes Wyndham Vale Wyndham 2002 9,000 3,000 6,000 Meadow Springs Truganina Wyndham N/A 162 54 108 Paragon Point Cook Wyndham N/A 350 46 304 Parkbrook Point Cook Wyndham 2011 325 100 225 Saltwater Coast Point Cook Wyndham N/A 2,500 625 1,875 Saratoga Point Cook Wyndham N/A 700 N/A N/A Waterhaven Point Cook Wyndham 2009 600 300 300 Williams Landing Williams Landing Wyndham 2008 2,500 850 1,650 Evergreen Truganina Wyndham 2012 132 15 117 Forsyth Park Truganina Wyndham 2012 473 59 414 Gateway Truganina Wyndham 2012 214 52 162 Allura Truganina Wyndham 2011 1,300 250 1,050 Arnolds Creek Melton West Melton 2008 1,700 1,105 595 Botanica Springs Brookfield Melton N/A 2,000 N/A N/A *Includes lots that have yet to sell and that have not been released to market Source: Colliers International Research COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 5
  • 6. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | MELBOURNE Western Region WESTERN REGION MARKET ACTIVITY - RESIDENTIAL ESTATES Year Estate Remaining Estate Name Suburb LGA Total Number Number Sold Commenced Yield* Eynesbury Estate Eynesbury Melton 2010 4,500 873 3,627 Maplewood Melton Melton 2011 626 107 519 Peppermint Grove Melton West Melton 2010 452 45 407 Silverdale Melton Melton N/A 267 N/A N/A Waterford Melton Melton 2010 3,200 30 3,170 Aspire Plumpton Melton 2011 700 135 565 Atherstone South Melton Melton 2012 4,900 115 4,785 Encore Plumpton Melton 2011 158 N/A N/A Toolern Waters Toolern Melton 2012 920 N/A N/A Penny Royal Melton West Melton 2011 350 N/A N/A Taylors Hill Caroline Springs Melton 2002 2,000 1,820 180 *Includes lots that have yet to sell and that have not been released to market Source: Colliers International Research COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 6
  • 7. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | MELBOURNE Northern Region In the Northern Region two new estates have been released while three previous estates have been completed. This takes the total number of lots available in the region to 21,250 of which 24% has already been sold (5,116 lots). Approximately 58% of the total number of lots in the Northern Region are within the LGA of Whittlesea, down from 66% six months earlier. Over the last six months Carlingford estate sold the eight remaining lots available and was therefore removed from analysis in this report. Palisades and Vantage Point have also been removed due to their completion status. Orchard Grove, a development by Metro Property, has sold approximately 100 lots since it began marketing in April 2011; this is equivalent to 57% of its total stock. Other notable sales resultsBrookhaven, Sunbury have occurred in the Everton Gardens estate which has sold an estimated 43 lots since the lastSince marketing began in the second half of 2010 reporting period. This estate is currently marketing its second of five stages with the third stageBrookhaven has sold 19% of its total stock. being released in the fourth quarter of this year. NORTHERN REGION MARKET ACTIVITY - RESIDENTIAL ESTATES Year Estate Remaining Estate Name Suburb LGA Total Number Number Sold Commenced Yield* Aurora Epping North Whittlesea N/A 2,213 N/A N/A Bridge Inn Rise Doreen Whittlesea 2009 190 110 80 Eucalypt Wollert Whittlesea 2010 1,300 350 950 Everton Gardens Mernda Whittlesea 2010 250 93 157 Fairview Mernda Whittlesea 2010 481 190 291 Lyndarum Epping North Whittlesea 2010 600 201 399 Mernda Villages Mernda Whittlesea 2006 3,000 1,800 1,200 Mosaic Lalor Whittlesea 2010 850 326 524 Renaissance Rise Mernda Whittlesea 2008 719 139 580 Summerhill North Epping Whittlesea 2009 687 549 138 Eden Gardens Epping North Whittlesea N/A 450 300 150 Orchard Grove Doreen Whittlesea 2011 175 100 75 Riverstone at Doreen Whittlesea 2009 1,200 620 580 Plenty River Berry Lane Mernda Whittlesea 2010 268 135 133 Panorama Doreen Doreen Whittlesea 2010 125 57 68 Brookhaven Sunbury Hume 2010 245 46 199 Canterbury Hills Sunbury Hume 1990 1,404 N/A N/A Highlands Craigieburn Hume 2008 4,764 N/A N/A Jacksons Hill The South Valley Hume 1997 2,572 N/A N/A Providence at Greenvale 2010 150 100 50 Hume Greenvale *Includes lots that have yet to sell and that have not been released to market Source: Colliers International Research COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 7
  • 8. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | MELBOURNE 11 St a 325 im ges Feat pres ur sive ing allot men South Eastern Region ts 1115 1116 1131 1114 1117 1132 1130 1113 1118 1133 T 1129 COUR 1112 1119 1134 1128 A 714 715 WAIOR 716 1120 713 11091 1127 STAG 1135 110 712 1111 E 11 112 1 6 711 1121 1136 710 1122 1123 DRIVE STAG 1124 1137 E7 1125 709 717 SAM SAR A AV MAITLAND 708 718 1108 ENUE 1107 The South Eastern Region is the least expensive of the growth corridors. Of the 24 estates 707 719 1106 1105 706 720 1104 1138 1103 705 1001 1102 1101 UE 704 EN 721 1002 AV 10031 1139 703 RA 722 004 910 1005 702 MSA 723 FULLE 1006 911 701 SA RTO 1007 idenitifed in the region, comprising an estimated 19,104 lots, 6,151 have already been sold. 724 1019 N WA 1008 909 310 1018 Y 725 STAG 912 309 1017 908 1016 E 10 308 801 1015 913 726 802 1014 307 803 1013 727 804 1012 914 805 1011 311 806 1010 306 Heritage Springs, Lakeside Pakenham, Arena at Officer, The Grove, and Settlers Run are all 312 807 1009 907 830 808 915 1 313 829 809 305 828 810 906 314 827 STAG 811 916 E8 812 2 304 STAG 826 813 E3 315 825 SHALA 814 905 3 303 316 824 MAR 917 317 823 DRIVE STO 318 822 904 302 NYBR 604 821 4 918 nearing completion and have therefore been removed from analysis in this report. 324 OOK 605 820 WAY 606 819 301 607 818 5 608 919 325 323 817 GE 219 322 609 816 6 321 320 610 815 VILLA 611 903 920 218 220 319 603 STAG 612 7 E6 613 902 PLAY 614 ROAD 602 STO 615 921 221 222 NYBR 616 223 OOK 617 901 DIS 8 224 601 WAY 922 RRIS 225 628 226 627 9 217 VANT 228 626 STAG MO 216 AGE 625 E9 215 PLAC 624 214 E 227 629 623 10 213 622 Previously Colliers International reported over 50% of stock in the South Eastern Region DISPLA 212 420 621 211 229 620 618 11 12 Y VIL 210 STAG 927 LAG 209 419 926 STAG 13 14 E 208 206 E2 230 421 925 924 E1 15 207 6 527 619 923 16 418 URT 17 205 422 18 231 526 19 528 525 EA CO 32 BELLEV 204 232 ENUE 423 524 DRIVE 20 415 had already been absorbed. This figure has now declined to 33% due to the removal of the five 21 523 OFFIC S UE DR 416 522 E 529 SALE 33 IVE 201 203 417 ALLCR 521 PENL 31 Y AV EST ALE 30 424 COUR 29 202 425 T 426 515 BEATT 28 MERIV 427 27 233 530 26 STAG 514 25 E4 24 234 408 516 517 23 409 estates which have been completed, as well as the introduction of two new estates 22 513 5 518 520 410 10 519 239 238 411 41 STAG 235 412 413 E5 237 414 236 407 507 508 406 509 09 405 510 404 511 403 512 402 401 506 505 504 503 502 501 Potters Grove and Timbertop estates began marketing in the first half of 2012 and will add N approximately 821 lots to the LGA of Cardinia. Approximately 70 lots have already sold sinceBellevue, TruganinaThis 325 lot estate has already sold 18% of it’s marketing commenced. Other notable sales results for estates in the region include thosestock since marketing commenced. in Selandra Rise, which has sold approximately 150 lots since the last reporting period. The South East Region has historically recorded the highest median sale price of all the growth corridors, however new suburbs such as Officer have begun to develop more rapidly reducing median lot prices as well as increasing the average lot size. Of a sample of 146 lots which are currently for sale in the South East corridor the weighted average lot size was approximately 451m2, the largest across all growth corridors, and an average sale price approximately $208,308, excluding rebates. SOUTH EASTERN REGION MARKET ACTIVITY - RESIDENTIAL ESTATES Year Estate Remaining Estate Name Suburb LGA Total Number Number Sold Commenced Yield* Arden Estate Pakenham Cardinia 2008 637 N/A N/A Cardinia Lakes Pakenham Cardinia 2007 750 375 375 Eden Brook Pakenham Cardinia 2011 601 N/A N/A Stockman Longwarry Cardinia 2010 150 100 50 Woods Estate Worthington Pakenham Cardinia N/A 800 150 650 Estate Timbertop Officer Cardinia 2012 600 50 550 Potters Grove Officer Cardinia 2012 221 20 201 Alarah Casey Casey 2009 250 193 57 Aspect Officer Casey 2010 2,500 250 2,250 Bernly Gardens Berwick Casey N/A N/A N/A N/A Botanic Ridge Cranbourne Casey 2007 950 650 300 Berwick Waters Clyde North Casey 2011 2,750 150 2,600 Cascades on Clyde Casey 2007 1,100 900 200 Clyde Casiana Grove Cranbourne West Casey 2010 670 270 400 Grandvue Officer Casey 2010 860 280 580 Cranbourne Arbourlea Casey 2011 325 50 275 North Parks Edge Cranbourne Casey 2011 520 20 500 *Includes lots that have yet to sell and that have not been released to market Source: Colliers International Research COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 8
  • 9. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | MELBOURNE South Eastern Region SOUTH EASTERN REGION MARKET ACTIVITY - RESIDENTIAL ESTATES Year Estate Remaining Estate Name Suburb LGA Total Number Number Sold Commenced Yield* Pasadena Clyde Casey 2010 420 160 260 Quarters Cranbourne West Casey 2011 800 93 707 Selandra Rise Clyde North Casey 2010 1,200 750 450 The Avenue Casey Casey N/A N/A N/A N/A Livingston Cranbourne East Casey 2011 N/A N/A N/A The Hunt Club Cranbourne Casey 2002 2,000 1,690 310 Marriott Waters Lyndhurst Casey N/A 1,000 N/A N/A *Includes lots that have yet to sell and that have not been released to market Source: Colliers International Research COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 9
  • 10. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | MELBOURNE New Supply Pipeline • Thesupply of residential lots include lots • TheManor Lakes, Diggers Rest and yet to be sold/released in the communities Lockerbie North PSPs each have less contained in this report, plus land releases than 5,000 proposed lots. in various stages of planning. All have • The Merrifield PSP is a joint project completed precinct structure plans (PSPs) between MAB Corporation and Gibsons with the Growth Area Authority. Property Corporation. The new master • Futuresupply levels are constantly changing planned community is set to house an as lots are absorbed, development plans estimated 6,877 households and will be changed and new applications lodged. delivered over the next 25 years. The figures below indicate a reflection • The Western corridor has the highest of the current development pipeline as proportion of lots (36%) with completed detailed within completed and draft PSP’s. PSPs in the supply pipeline, the majority • Six new PSPs were completed in June 2012. of which are in the LGA of Melton (35,254 These new development areas will add an lots). This is followed by the South Eastern estimated 37,782 lots to the growth corridors corridor with 33% and the Northern of Melbourne in the future. This brings the corridor with 31%. number of total proposed lots to 135,561. • Therecently completed Lockerbie PSP is the largest of the six new completed PSPs released by the Growth Area Authority. Comprising 1,121 hectares of land in the LGA of Hume, approximately 35 kilometres from the Melbourne CBD. The land is proposed to yield 10,221 lots with a development timeframe of 20 years. ESTIMATED PROPORTION OF FUTURE SUPPLY BY REGION North 31% West 36% South East 33% Source: Growth Area Authority compiled by Colliers International Research COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 10
  • 11. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | MELBOURNE “The LGA of General Land Market Wyndham recorded the • The following analysis includes sales • The LGA of Wyndham recorded the highest of vacant lots that have settled and been median price for vacant lots (excluding highest recorded on Pricefinder as at December 2011 in Melbourne’s Growth Areas. Previous rebates) in Melbourne’s growth areas over the second half of 2011 with $237,750, median figures have been revised due to time lags followed by Casey ($213,950), Whittlesea between exchange, settlement and data ($211,000), Hume ($195,000), Melton price availability. Sales not at arm’s length or ($175,500), and Cardinia ($176,000). that were sold in one line are excluded. • Only the LGA of Wyndham recorded • Between 2005 and 2011 approximately an increase in the median price over for vacant 82,265 vacant lots were sold and settled the six months to December 2011, the LGA in the LGAs of Hume, Cardinia, Casey, of Cardinia remained stable while the rest lots (excluding Whittlesea, Wyndham, and Melton. recorded decreases in median sales prices rebates) in • The LGA of Wyndham has recorded of vacant lots. the highest proportion of total vacant lot Melbourne’s sales in the growth areas of Melbourne with 31% of total sales respectively, followed growth areas by Melton with 17%, Casey and Whittlesea with 16% each. over the second half of 2011” DEMAND AND MEDIAN SALE PRICES FOR VACANT LOTS IN MELBOURNE’S GROWTH AREAS 10,000 $225,000 9,000 8,000 $200,000 7,000 Median Sales Price 6,000 $175,000 Number of Sales 5,000 4,000 $150,000 3,000 2,000 $125,000 1,000 0 $100,000 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Shire of Cardinia City of Casey City of Hume Shire of Melton City of Whittlesea City of Wyndham Median Sale Price Source: Pricefinder GENERAL MARKET INDICATORS – VACANT LAND Median Sale Price Median Sale Price Half Yearly Annual LGA H1 11 H2 11 Change Change Cardinia $175,750 $176,000 0% 3% Casey $224,000 $213,950 -5% -3% Hume $210,500 $195,000 -8% -4% Melton $181,000 $178,500 -1% 16% Whittlesea $220,000 $211,000 -4% 5% Wyndham $230,000 $237,750 3% 16% *Median prices exclude rebates Source: Pricefinder General House Market COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 11
  • 12. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | MELBOURNE General Land Market • Themedian sale price in the growth areas • Product between $200,000 and $300,000 of Melbourne decreased by 9% over the six has grown its market share by 44% from the month period, from $215,000 to $205,000, first half of 2005 (5%) to the second half of but recorded an increase of 7% year on year. 2011 (49%). • Thetotal number of sales over the second • The350m2 to 450m2 lot size range continues half of 2011 decreased by approximately 21% to be the most popular throughout the over the six month period. Melbourne growth corridors comprising • Overthe 2011 calendar year product approximately 29% of total sales over the between $200,000 and $300,000 was the second half of 2011. This is followed by lots most popular, constituting 50% of sales over between 450m2 and 550m2 which made up the first half of 2011 and 49% of sales 24% of sales over the same period. in the second half. This is the first time over • Colliers International recognizes that the the measurable period that this price range increase in total sales for lots smaller than has surpassed product under $200,000 450m2 is partially due to restrictions imposed in total number of sales. by the State government which demands developers produce 15 lots per hectare. VACANT LOT TURNOVER BY LGA: 2005-2011 Cardinia 9% Wyndham 33% Whittlesea 16% Hume 10% Casey 16% Melton 17% Source: Pricefinder NUMBER OF VACANT LOTS SOLD BY PRICE RANGE IN MELBOURNE’S GROWTH AREAS 10,000 9,000 8,000 $700k+ 7,000 $600k-$700k $500k-$600k 6,000 $400k-$500k $300k-$400k 5,000 $200k-$300k 4,000 <$200k 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 H2 2009 H1 2010 H2 2010 H1 2011 H2 2011 Source: Pricefinder COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 12
  • 13. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | MELBOURNE General House Market • The following analysis includes the sales of • Unlike the vacant land market, the South new and established houses that have settled Eastern Region of Melbourne comprised and been recorded on Pricefinder as at approximately 35% of house sales in the December 2011 in the growth areas of growth area of Melbourne over the second Melbourne. Previous figures have been half of 2011, this area represented the revised due to time lags between exchange, smallest proportion of vacant lots sold in settlement and data availability. Sales not the region with only 14% of total sales. at arm’s length or that were sold in one line • The Western corridor represented the are excluded. second largest proportion of house sales • Between 2005 and December 2011 (34%) this trend has been consistent for approximately 107,165 houses were sold the past 12 months. and settled in the LGAs of Melton, Hume, • Unlike the market for vacant lots, the house Wyndham, Whittlesea, Cardinia, and Casey. market has remained dominated by sales • Over the second half of 2011 the total number of lots between 550m2 and 650m2 since of sales dropped in the growth areas of the first half of 2005. This is due in part to Melbourne by approximately 11% from the the quantity of existing stock of this size in first half of the year. The LGA of Cardinia the area. recorded the greatest drop in sales with • The proportion of lots sold between the a decrease of 17%. 350m2 to 450m2 have increased 5% since • All LGAs, except the City of Hume, recorded the first half of 2005 to 12% of total sales declines in total sales volumes over the while lots sold between 650m2 and 750m2 six months to December 2011. have decreased by 3% over the same period. • The median house price in Melbourne’s • Product between $300,000 to $400,000 has growth areas decreased for the second time been the most popular sale price range since over the past 12 months. Down to $385,000 the first half of 2009 while the $400,000 to from $390,000. $500,000 range has grown its market share • The LGA of Casey had the highest proportion 20% since the first half of 2005. of overall sales in the growth areas of • The proportion of property transactions in Melbourne with 29%, followed by Wyndham the $500,000 to $600,000 range have with 18%, and Hume with 17%. increased by 7% since the first half of 2005, • Over the second half of 2011 overall sales while the proportion of properties priced volumes declined in the growth areas of under $300,000 have dropped by 59% over Melbourne by 6%. The South Eastern Region the same time period. saw the greatest deterioration in sales volume with a drop of 11% while the Northern Region saw only a 1% decrease in total number of sales. DEMAND AND MEDIAN SALE PRICES FOR HOUSES IN MELBOURNE’S GROWTH AREAS 10,000 $450,000 9,000 8,000 $400,000 7,000 Median Sales Price 6,000 $350,000 Number of Sales 5,000 4,000 $300,000 3,000 2,000 $250,000 1,000 0 $200,000 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 City of Wyndham City of Whittlesea Shire of Melton Shire of Cardinia City of Casey City of Hume Median Sale Price Source: Pricefinder COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 13
  • 14. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | MELBOURNE“the new and General House Marketestablishedhousing GENERAL MARKET INDICATORS – HOUSES Median Sale Price Median Sale Price Half Yearly Annualmarket has LGA H1 11 H2 11 Change Changeremained Wyndham $380,000 $385,000 1% 1%dominated by Whittlesea $425,000 $407,750 -4% -2%sales of lots Casey $392,500 $392,000 0% 1%between Cardinia $375,000 $361,000 -4% -2% Hume $378,000 $367,550 -3% -2%550m2 and Melton $370,000 $370,000 0% 3%650m2 Source: Pricefindersince the first HOUSE TURNOVER BY LGA: 2005-2011half of 2005” Hume 17% Wyndham 22% Whittlesea 17% Casey 35% Melton 15% Cardinia 10% Source: Pricefinder NUMBER OF HOUSES SOLD BY PRICE NUMBER OF HOUSES SOLD IN OUTER MELBOURNE RANGE IN MELBOURNE’S GROWTH AREAS 10,000 9,000 8,000 $800k+ 7,000 $700k-$800k $600k-$700k 6,000 $500k-$600k $400k-$500k 5,000 $300k-$400k 4,000 <$300k 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 H2 2009 H1 2010 H2 2010 H1 2011 H2 2011 Source: Pricefinder COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 14
  • 15. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | MELBOURNEOutlook 522 offices inWith the declines in demand shown via reduced building approval figures, population growth, 62 countries onand consumer sentiment during 2012 it is anticipated that vacant lot and house sales in the growthcorridors of Melbourne will remain low. Colliers International expects that due to the removal of the 6 continentsFirst Home Owner Boost in June 2012 sale figures in the first half of 2012 will be higher than those United States: 147in the second half due to certain purchases being pulled forward in order to obtain the government Canada: 37rebate but that overall annual sales figures will be similar to those recorded in 2011. Latin America: 19 Asia Pacific: 201While it is highly unlikely that consumer sentiment will shift into the positive spectrum due to EMEA: 118stagnating employment growth and steady unemployment rates over 2013 Colliers International • $1.8 billion in annual revenueexpects that vacant lot and house sales in the growth corridors of Melbourne will continue at levels • 1.25 billion square feet underrecorded over 2011 until the beginning of 2014. Along with the lack of demand and negative managementconsumer outlook, financing issues are likely to persist for both purchasers and developers over • Over 12,300 professionalsthe next 12 months as banks remain risk averse.The ability to stimulate the market doesn’t rest with any one party, but rather, demands a morecollaborative approach between developers, councils and state government in order to deliver more COLLIERS INTERNATIONALaffordable housing in Melbourne. With the current environment, Colliers International anticpates that Level 32,developers will offer varied lot sizes in order to deliver affordable house and land packages to the 367 Collins Street,market. This action is anticipated to lead to a further increase in the proportion of sales between Melbourne VIC 3000350m2 and 450m2 and will lead to a more affordable median price recorded in both vacant lot and TEL 03 9629 8888house sale prices over the next 16 months. FAX 03 9629 4945 RESEARCHERS Margaret Bowden Analyst / Research TEL 03 9940 7279 FAX 03 9092 1479 Paul Wheate Director / Valuation TEL 03 9612 8823 FAX 03 9092 1323 Colliers International does not give any warranty in relation to the accuracy of the information contained in this report. If you intend to rely upon the information contained herein, you must take note that the information, figures and projections have been provided by various sources and have not been verified by us. We have no belief one way or the other in relation to the accuracy of such information, figures and projections. Colliers International will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from any statement, figure, calculation or any other information that you rely upon that is contained in the material. COPYRIGHT - Colliers International 2012. Accelerating success. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | | P. 15 COLLIERS INTERNATIONALwww.colliers.com.au/research