Henry stewart hotel investment and development conference
 

Henry stewart hotel investment and development conference

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    Henry stewart hotel investment and development conference Henry stewart hotel investment and development conference Presentation Transcript

    • Accelerating success. Henry Stewart’s Hotel Investment and Development Conference Trends, Transactions and Outlook for Germany and the Netherlands Dirk Bakker – Head of EMEA Hotels 11 September 2013
    • Content 1. Understanding Hotel Values 2. The Global Hospitality Sector 3. The German and Dutch Hotel ‘Climate’ 4. What the Future Holds 5. Colliers International
    • 1. Understanding Hotel Values Macro Micro Object
    • Content 1. Understanding Hotel Values 2. The Global Hospitality Sector 3. The German and Dutch Hotel ‘Climate’ 4. What the Future Holds 5. Colliers International
    • 2. The Global Hospitality Sector Global Tourism Statistics 45.5% of world total 46.8% of world total 45.0% of world total Source: World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), 2011 22.3 24.6 26.9 27.0 28.3 43.6 52.7 55.7 59.8 77.1 Mexico Malaysia Germany Turkey UK Italy Spain China USA France Top 10 Int'l Tourism Arrivals (m) 22.2 27.8 29.6 32.4 34.7 38.8 45.8 46.6 52.5 103.5 Hong-Kong Macao Australia UK Germany Italy China France Spain USA Top 10 Int'l Tourism Receipts ($bn) 22.2 26.5 27.1 27.9 29.6 38.5 50.0 54.9 75.5 78.1 Australia Russian Fed. Italy Japan Canada France UK China USA Germany Top 10 Int'l Tourism Expenditure ($bn) European cities
    • 2. The Global Hospitality Sector European Tourism Statistics 3,0% 2,7% 2000 – 2012 CAGR Source: World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), 2012 251 255 258 252 267 282 302 318 322 297 311 335 356 389 389 401 408 428 451 473 495 497 472 487 517 534 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 European tourism arrivals Int'l tourism receipts (€bn) Int'l tourism arrivals (m)
    • 2. The Global Hospitality Sector International Tourist Arrivals 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 2,000 1.0bn 1.4bn 1.8bn 2012 1,750 1,500 Source: World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), 2012 Forecast At the estimated growth of 3.3%, International tourist arrivals will reach 1.8 billion by 2030
    • 2. The Global Hospitality Sector Hotel Transactions Global & Europe Source: HVS, Jones Lang La Salle, Colliers International * 2013 Global and Europe transaction volume growth is assumed to be equal - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F* Transaction Volumes (€bn) Global Europe
    • Content 1. Understanding Hotel Values 2. The Global Hospitality Sector 3. The German and Dutch Hotel ‘Climate’ 3.1 Economic & Political Climate 3.2 Market Performance 3.3 Investment Landscape 3.4 Contract Structure 3.5 Property Location 3.6 Brand 4. What the Future Holds 5. Colliers International Case: The Vincent Hotel Group
    • 10 3. The Dutch and German Hotel ‘Climate’ Contract Structure Economic & Market Climate Value Investment Landscape Market Performance Location Brand (operations)
    • • World’s fourth-largest economy by nominal GDP • Global leader in industries like machinery, vehicles and chemicals • Third-largest exporting nation • Triple-A Rating (S&P, Moody‘s, Fitch), GDP per capita: € 32,276 (10th position in the EU) • Leading nation in “green“ and sustainable energy and development • Second-lowest unemployment rate in the European Union (5.3 % in July 2013) 3.1 Economic & Market Climate Germany - Highlights
    • 3.1 Economic & Market Climate Germany – Market indicators -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% € 0 € 10 € 20 € 30 € 40 € 50 € 60 € 70 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F RevPar German GDP EU GDP Global GDP Source: Eurostat, IMF, Hotelverband Deutschland (IHA)
    • • A triple-A rating (S&P): strong net external position and high per capita GDP (€36,900 4th in EU) • Second only to Germany as the strongest country in terms of financial stability in the Eurozone • Netherlands reputation as an open economy with a longstanding history of international trade; export of goods and services accounted for 85.0% of GDP in 2012 • Ranked 7th in the World Economic Forum Financial Development Report • Netherlands known for its high quality financial services 3.1 Economic & Market Climate The Netherlands - Highlights
    • 3.1 Economic & Market Climate The Netherlands – Market indicators -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% € 0 € 10 € 20 € 30 € 40 € 50 € 60 € 70 € 80 € 90 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F RevPar Dutch GDP EU GDP Global GDP Source: Eurostat, IMF, Hosta, Colliers International
    • • Number 3 strongest hotel performance after London and Paris • Local authorities forecast an increase in demand of hotel nights of 2.0% to 2.7% on a yearly basis up to 2020 for the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area • Amsterdam will continue to target the 9,000 additional rooms in 2015 • Local authorities aim and forecast a healthy occupancy between 70% and 75% for Amsterdam • There are about 5,800 additional rooms offered through websites like Airbnb and Wimdu, estimated revenues: €15m in 2012 • Over 200 illegal hotels in the city centre of Amsterdam, local authority is now actively closing them mainly in the city centre (area 1012) 3.1 Economic & Market Climate The Netherlands – Amsterdam Hotel Market
    • 3.2 Market performance Hotel Performance Indicators Hotel market in selected German and Dutch cities City RevPAR growth 2010 RevPAR growth 2011 RevPAR growth 2012 Outlook Berlin 11.5% (1.1)% 8.5% Stagnation Frankfurt 21.3% 4.2% 5.0% Stagnation Munich 31.1% 0.4% 11.5% Increase Hamburg 11.1% 6.8% 1.9% Stagnation Amsterdam* & Schiphol 12.3% 11.0% 0.0% Stabilise Source: PwC, municipality of Amsterdam * Room nights in Amsterdam increased 10,7% in 2013Q1
    • 3.3 Investment Landscape European transactions outlook Transactions Outlook  Continued limited availability of debt and high costs of financing of new acquisitions  Branded, centrally located hotels have increased financing opportunities  60.0% LTV to become norm, not exception  Current cap rates at 8.0% expected to remain stable or increase  New debt funds with more expensive terms: i.e. StarFin by Starwood Capital, GE Capital Real Estate Europe  Normalising debt markets on the long term  EMEA transaction volume increase in the first half of 2013 by 38.0% to € 5.5 billion  Major European transactions in Western and Northern Europe  Most attractive European markets: 1. UK: 41.0% 2. France: 23.0% 3. Germany: 12.0%  Top 3 transaction parties in EMEA: 1. Sovereign Wealth Funds (Middle East) 2. Global Investors (ex.: Westmont, Starwood Capital, Morgan Stanley) 3. Domestic Investors Germany (2012)  Volume: ca. €1,300m  Long term leases or vacant possession, High Net Worth Individuals and Institutional Investors Netherlands (2012)  Volume: ca. €190m  Term Leases, Institutional Investors Source: Jones Lang Lasalle, Propertywire.com, KPMG, Colliers International
    • 3.3 Investment Landscape Dutch Hotel Ownership Source: Jones Lang Lasalle 2012 Europe, 51% Domestic, 2 6% US, 19% Asia, 4% Hotel Ownership by Nationality Hotel Operators, 4 9% Private Equity firms, 14% HNWIs, 11% Institutional Investors, 10 % Other, 16% Hotel Ownership by Investor Type Comparable information not available for Germany
    • 3.4-6 Contract structure, Location, Brand Case: Office Conversions, a partnership
    • Content 1. Understanding Hotel Values 2. The Global Hospitality Sector 3. The German and Dutch Hotel ‘Climate’ 4. What the Future Holds 5. Colliers International
    • 4. What the Future Holds Impact Factors of the Global Travel Industry • Emerging new markets and destinations • Sustainability (Social, economic and environment) • Technology Driven Distribution • Changing Consumer behavior • Tourism and External shocks • Security and Travel facilitation
    • 4. What the Future Holds European Hotel Market Trends • Increase international brand presence • More risk-bearing contract variations • More management contract variations • Increase quality products/brands • More variation in budget hotels • Investment climate for hotels to improve Increased Consolidation
    • Content 1. Understanding Hotel Values 2. The Global Hospitality Sector 3. The German and Dutch Hotel ‘Climate’ 4. What the future holds 5. Colliers International
    • 5. Colliers International About Colliers International 482 offices 62 countries 6 continents UNITED STATES: 140 CANADA: 4 LATIN AMERICA: 20 ASIA PACIFIC: 195 EMEA: 85 • € 1.3 bn in annual revenue • 116 m square meter under management • 12,300 employees COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL Buitenveldertselaan 5 Postbus 75168 1070 AD Amsterdam TEL +31 (0)20 540 55 40 FAX +31 (0)20 646 45 36 www.colliers.nl Accelerating success. Colliers International is a leader in global real estate services defined by our spirit of enterprise. Through a culture of service excellence, and a shared sense of initiative, we have integrated the resources of 12,300 real estate specialists throughout 482 offices in 62 countries to accelerate the success of our clients.
    • 5. Colliers International Colliers Hotel Services Operations review International Resort Advisory Brokerage Market & Financial Feasibility Debt & Equity Raising Valuation Operator search & selection Strategic & Financial Advisory Colliers Hotel Services  Agency and Investment services  Valuation  Market and financial feasibility studies  Operator search and selection  Strategic and financial advisory  Development Advisory
    • Accelerating success. Thank You