2013 Global Investor Sentiment
Table of               03 Introduction                    by: Tony Horrell           04 - 07 The Global PictureContents   ...
IntroductionFor the past three years, we have asked major          >	 Investment sentiment improves significantly overinve...
The                                                                                         Comparison of Q1 to Q3 investm...
Capital primarily                                    Sector and location                                  Debt is availabl...
104.1                                                                                                                     ...
US and Canadian commercial real estate international flows –year to October 2012 (€ millions)  Country of                 ...
“Asian investors (68.3%) believe that market conditions will improve in the next 5 years...”                              ...
According to Colliers International PropertyInvestor Sentiment Index, the outlook in Asiastarts to look more positive in t...
2.7                                 3.0                         2.5                   4.7As a destination for             ...
The key challenge is tosource good investmentsWithin the long list of factors such as a change ofpolitical environment, di...
“Within five years, almost all (90%)                                                respondents expect to see a much      ...
104.3                                      “The majority of Australian andColliers International                          ...
2.9                                 2.7                       2.4                    3.6                                  ...
of respondents. Residential developments and               The types of assets that lenders will typicallyshopping centers...
“The majority of investors feel that conditions will remain the same during the next 6-12 months, with confidence rising o...
Market activity to date in 2012 indicates that theyear is on track to meet or exceed the commercialtransaction volumes las...
4.8                                 2.9                          2.2                     2.2As a destination for          ...
Good investments exist,but are more difficult                                         “...timely and well selectedto find ...
EMEAEMEA attractive target forproperty investmentDespite fears of a possible breakup of all or part ofthe eurozone, our Gl...
“Over half (56%) of the EMEA                                                                                              ...
3.8                                                               2.9                                                     ...
hotels and “other” sectors – which might include         Debt is available, but the terms attached areinfrastructure, heal...
LatinAmerica Latin American investorsbullish on property marketMost respondents did not report negative opinions about the...
Colliers 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Report
Colliers 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Report
Colliers 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Report
Colliers 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Report
Colliers 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Report
Colliers 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Report
Colliers 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Report
Colliers 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Report
Colliers 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Report
Colliers 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Report
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Colliers 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Report

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For the past three years, we have asked major investors across the spectrum from institutional to private, representing a broad cross section of property investors globally, for their outlook at the global and regional level for the coming 12 months and beyond.

This year’s respondents included nearly 500 investors from the US, Canada, Latin America, Australia/New Zealand, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Overall, the majority of investors indicated they wanted to expand their portfolios. However, with risk profiles varying by sector and location, wealth preservation remains a key feature of the investment landscape for the near future.

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Colliers 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Report

  1. 1. 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  2. 2. Table of 03 Introduction by: Tony Horrell 04 - 07 The Global PictureContents by: Tony Horrell 08 - 11 Asia by: Antonio Wu 12 - 15 Australia & New Zealand by: James Quigley 16 - 19 Canada by: Milton Lamb 20 - 23 EMEA by: Tony Horrell 24 - 27 Latin America by: Ricardo Betancourt 28 - 31 United States by: Warren Dahlstrom 32 - 33 Appendix 34 About
  3. 3. IntroductionFor the past three years, we have asked major > Investment sentiment improves significantly overinvestors across the spectrum from institutional the medium term.to private, representing a broad cross section of > A lack of quality stock is impacting on someproperty investors globally, for their outlook at markets.the global and regional level for the coming 12months and beyond. > The popularity of safe haven destinations like, London, Paris, major German cities and NewThis year’s respondents included nearly 500 York will continue.investors from the US, Canada, Latin America, > Risk aversion, secure income and wealthAustralia/New Zealand, Europe, Asia and the preservation will remain a key part of theMiddle East. Overall, the majority of investors investment strategy for many funds and,indicated they wanted to expand their portfolios. particularly, high net worth individuals andHowever, with risk profiles varying by sector private buyers.and location, wealth preservation remains a keyfeature of the investment landscape for the near > The availability of finance is an issue in somefuture. regions, but debt is available at a price to those who meet stringent conditions.A noticeable trend this year was that major > 2013 will see more new lenders and mezzanineinvestors are becoming more critical when funds partially replace the void left by retreatingselecting their investment locations. This was mainstream banks.supported by the overarching themes we found > Generally, 2013 will be a year of continuedwhen asking respondents about their investment recovery, with investment volumes showingstrategies: modest growth as investors accept the new1. A focus on home regions norm and sentiment improves.2. Those that are looking to investinternationally are far more specific aboutthe individual markets and sectors they will With more than 12,000 Colliers professionals in 62consider. countries; we are able to provide our clients with expert capital market advice at a local, regionalAdditional key findings from our survey include: and global level. I trust you will find the results of> Despite uncertainties across the global our survey of interest. markets, investors remain positive.> Compared with last year, investors from Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have more ambitious expansion plans. Tony Horrell03 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  4. 4. The Comparison of Q1 to Q3 investment transactions 2007 - 2012Global Asia Pacific Americas EMEAPicture 350 300Investing for medium to 250long term performance ¤ billions 200Investors are looking beyond current market weaknesses and investingfor medium to long term performance on the back of anticipated steadyeconomic improvement, with the Pacific and EMEA regions showing a 150marked improvement. 100Most investors in all regions classified themselves as low to moderate risktakers. Investors in the United States, Asia and Latin America were the most 50likely to take on more risk in the coming six months in order to generatehigher returns. Australia and EMEA respondents were more cautious with themajority “unlikely to take any undue risk”. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Investors in the more mature “Western” markets of the United States, Canadaand Western Europe were the most cautious, targeting IRRs of less than 10%.This rises to 10-15% in Australia / New Zealand and 15-20% in Latin America RCA transactions data comparing the value of transactions for Q1 to Q3 show Asian level being Source: RCAand MENA. However, in Asia and Eastern Europe the majority of investors well ahead of the 2007 market peak since 2010. EMEA and the Americas transaction values haveare targeting IRRs in excess of 20%, a reflection of higher risk and higher recovered from 2009 lows, but still remain at about 40% of the 2007 high.development led activity.The survey suggests that, globally, the most attractive region to invest inimmediately is the United States, followed by Asia and Western Europe.These regions ranked significantly higher than Eastern Europe, the MiddleEast and South Africa.04 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  5. 5. Capital primarily Sector and location Debt is available - remains local preferences at a price In general, investors in almost all regions prefer While the office sector was the most popular The majority of investors in all regions were to invest locally. However, US and Canadian sector to invest in across most regions, the likely or highly likely to use debt to leverage their investors were the most likely to invest offshore exceptions were the United States and Latin exposure in future investment decisions. Across“The reality and cost of securing (see table on page 5). If not investing locally, America, where the Industrial and Logistics sector regions, investors in Asia are the most likely to use debt will remain a significant global investors are most likely to invest in Western Europe. The exception to this was was a more popular option. debt while the least likely were Latin American investors. hurdle in most EMEA markets Asian investors who were most likely to invest in Other sectors that gained credible mentions for some time.” Australia/New Zealand. were shopping centres (Australia / New Zealand, Canada and Western Europe), Opportunistic (Asia, Lending conditions were more variable. In Latin America, lending conditions were most positive In all regions, the dominant source of capital was Canada and EMEA) and Residential Development with both underwriting standards perceived local. However, Asian, EMEA and Latin American (Asia, Australia / New Zealand, Eastern Europe to have loosened and cost of funding to have investors were the most likely to access funds and MENA). decreased. All other regions are currently from outside their regions. Asian investors experiencing stricter lending criteria although sourced just 40% of funds locally with the decreased costs of funding were apparent in United States (20%) and Western Europe (19%) Australia, Canada and the US. The least positive providing significant capital. In Latin America, region was Europe where, not surprisingly, the US provides almost a third of all funding with Western Europe providing just under 15%. Canada is almost self-sufficient with around 78% of investors funding themselves locally. Dominant target IRR Under 10% range (internal rate of 10-15% return) for each region 15-20% Above 20%05 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  6. 6. 104.1 104.3 102.8Colliers PropertyInvestment Sentimentin the next 5 years 104.2 104.3 105 positiveNote: Colliers International PropertyInvestor Sentiment Index is based ona result of where above 100 meansthat more investors are positive about 104.4investment conditions. Below 100 99 negativemeans more investors are negativeabout investment conditions underwriting standards have tightened and funding costs have increased. The reality and cost 2013 Outlook The availability and price of debt finance will remain an issue in a number of territories, of securing debt will remain a significant hurdle in Throughout 2013, investors will continue to look particularly EMEA, as stringent lending most EMEA markets for some time. at expansion opportunities in key global cities requirements endure and LTVs remain low. This and safe haven markets while monitoring the is opening the door for new lenders, in the form of Debt is being raised to pursue different types of effects of the outcome of the US election and insurance companies, and the resurgence in the opportunity. While much is undoubtedly targeted current problems in the eurozone on the overall provision of mezzanine funding. at direct real estate investment, there is a growing investment market. As pricing is driven up in and significant tranche pursuing distressed debt these markets through lack of quality supply, some Finally, we anticipate more activity from specialist opportunities, where potential returns can be funds and investors will begin to examine the debt funds seeking higher returns than those higher. regional and sub-regional markets, together with available from core direct real estate investment. well-located secondary stock as the risk / reward In many markets debt is available, but the ratio becomes more acceptable. terms attached are increasingly stringent and the borrower must tick all the boxes. The new The majority of capital will remain close to home, paradigm faced by investors in a number of although we expect to see continued migration of markets is lower LTV ratios in future, which is funds from North America into Europe and Asia, providing the opportunity for mezzanine debt Asian funds buying into Australia and Europe and funds to flourish. AXA and Pramerica are just Middle East buyers targeting Europe. two examples of funds taking advantage of the challenging lending environment in the EMEA region to provide mezzanine finance.06 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  7. 7. US and Canadian commercial real estate international flows –year to October 2012 (€ millions) Country of Destination Origin Europe Asia Latin America Africa Australia Canada 2,267.7 79.3 152.6 0 2,432.8 USA 12,877.9 2,116.7 279.7 0 562.3 Total 15,145.6 2,196.0 432.3 0 2,995.1Source: RCAAs noted above, investors show a strong preference for investing in their respective home regions. This isillustrated in the city preferences in the table below. Only London and New York feature as a top three choiceoutside their own EMEA region.City investor targets Asia Aus/NZ Canada USA Latin America EMEA Rio de Shanghai Sydney Toronto New York London Janerio Los Singapore Melbourne London Sao Paulo Munich Angeles San Hong Kong Brisbane New York London Moscow FranciscoSource: Colliers InternationalTweet this survey07 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  8. 8. “Asian investors (68.3%) believe that market conditions will improve in the next 5 years...” Asia Asia looks extremely positive in the next five years This year the Global Investor Sentiment Survey was conducted from the 24th September to the 5th October 2012. This was an interesting time given the Federal Reserve just announced the third round of quantitative easing (QE3), in an attempt to stimulate economic and job growth. At the same time, the anticipated increase of market liquidity and growing inflationary pressure are going to impact real estate assets in different degrees, thus affecting Asian investors’ strategy going forward. The results of this survey reveal exactly how Asian investors perceive risk and return on their portfolios and the attractiveness of various asset types in different geographical markets. Regarding the timing of real estate investment, our survey indicates that 37% of Asian investors find it is a good time to make major investments in commercial property. However, the percentage is significantly lower than other markets such as the US (67%) and Pacific (66%) where the level of return is relatively attractive.
  9. 9. According to Colliers International PropertyInvestor Sentiment Index, the outlook in Asiastarts to look more positive in the long term.Most of the Asian investors (68.3%) believethat market conditions will improve in the next5 years and only a small percentage (11.7%)believes that investment conditions will decline. Colliers InternationalThis shows that Asian investors are rather 102.8 Property Investorpositive about their investment opportunities in 101.6Asia for the coming 5 years. 101.4 100.7 Sentiment Index – Asia 100 Next 5 Years Last 6 Next 6 Next 12 Months Months Months In the next 6 months, Investors remain keen Asia is the most attractive how likely are you to take on portfolio expansion region to Asian investors more risks in order to A vast majority (70%) of Asian investors are likely In general, Asian investors primarily source capital achieve superior returns? to expand their property portfolio and increase from the regions of Asia (40.3%), the United their level of investment. However, the major States (20.2%) and Western Europe (19.4%). concern is the difficulty of raising new equity On a forward-looking basis, the findings of our (29.9%), followed by a lack of supply of “for sale” survey indicate that 79% of the respondents would property (24.3%) and uncertainties due to the consider the Asian region as their key investment Likely economic situation (22.4%). focus in the future. Another 11% prefers the Pacific while the rest spreads across the US Meanwhile, the majority of respondents (40.6%) and Europe etc. An investment management unlikely are looking to target returns above 20%. Most company based in China mentioned their reason 53% classified themselves as willing to take moderate risks over the past 6 months (55%) and are likely for investing in Asia is because the region is still in a fast-growing developing stage driven 35% to take more risks in the next 6 months (53%). An increase in target returns can be seen compared by urbanisation and supporting government initiatives. The same has been concluded in the to last year, when the majority of respondents survey that Asia is placed on the top spot by local (55%) were looking to target returns between 10- investors in terms of the relative attractiveness of Highly Likely 15%. Asia and Eastern Europe were the only two various regions around the globe as a destination regions where the majority of the respondents are for property investment. looking to target returns above 20%. 12%09 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  10. 10. 2.7 3.0 2.5 4.7As a destination for Relative attractiveness of eachproperty investment, region to Asian investorshow attractive are each 3.4 3.5of the following regions 2.6 5.0 Very Attractiveto Asian investors? 2.8 2.4 very 1.0 unattractiveHow has the cost of A preference for cautious approach that needs to be taken by investors in view of regional government policies. Debt financing isdebt changed in the China markets accessible but not cheappast 6 months? Looking at a more local level, most Asian investors would consider Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Key consideration for Debt continues to be used by the majority of investors to leverage their exposure in future Tokyo and Beijing as the top five cities for their investment focus in the future. Individual making investment investment decisions. About 60% of Asian respondents are highly likely to use debt as respondents have chosen multiple cities including The findings of the survey suggest property leverage. Only 13% of respondents indicated thatNo Change first-tier or second-tier cities in China and cities in market fundamentals are the most critical factors they were unlikely or not likely at all to use debt Decreased the Greater China region, indicating a preference in the course of making investment decisions in as leverage. An institutional investor based in on China markets in general. Asia over the next 6 months. It differs from the Singapore felt that property investments require typical top-down approach by individual investors debt financing, “It is more a matter of whether the 24% who usually place the overall economic growth cost of debt makes sense”. 42% Offices in urban locations in the region as the key factor of consideration. The majority of respondents (42%) stated that the The explanation is that real estate markets in the 34% are the top picks region have become increasingly segmented due to the difference in government’s initiatives and cost of debt has not changed and a percentage (34%) stated that the cost of debt has increased. As an indicator of prospective investment flow demand fundamentals. On the other hand, a vast majority of respondents Increased over the next 6 months, Asian investors would last year (77%) believed that the cost of debt had focus on office developments in CBD/urban increased, which shows a remarkable decline locations (25%) and opportunistic investments this year. (17%). At the same time, 15% of the respondents in Asia reported a focus on industrial/logistics Looking at the lender’s underwriting standard opportunities. The main reason mentioned by a in the past 6 months, most respondents (41%) local Hong Kong-based investor for not looking believe that there have been no changes to into the residential sub-sector is the more lender’s underwriting, while a percentage of respondents (39%) think that lender’s credit underwriting has tightened.10 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  11. 11. The key challenge is tosource good investmentsWithin the long list of factors such as a change ofpolitical environment, direction of fund flows andmarket volatility etc, most investors in Asia believethat good investments do exist in the market butto find good stock for investment is always achallenge. The typical issues such as the potentialthreat by the eurozone crisis and the election inthe U.S. and China have been frequently talkedabout but these are not rated by investors as theutmost important.Looking forward, Asian investors remain positiveon the outlook for 2013. Asian investors believethat real estate will continue to be a good hedgeagainst inflation. The majority of them believe thatafter the third round of quantitative easing (Q3),in the U.S., developments in the domestic marketwill remain their main concern for real estateinvestment. A private investor based in Singaporementioned that local property fundamentals ineach domestic market are the key considerationfor investment. The investor believes that therewill be a clearer direction on how to act in 2013since most elections have already taken place thisyear. Meanwhile, access to finance is expected tobe easier in 2013 as the supply of credit is readilyavailable from most Asian banks.Tweet this survey “...most investors in Asia believe that good investments do exist in the market but to find good stock for investment is always a challenge.”11 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  12. 12. “Within five years, almost all (90%) respondents expect to see a much more positive market.”Australia &New ZealandAustralian investmentactivity to remain strongThe majority of Australia/New Zealandrespondents (66%) believe that now is agood time to undertake major investmentsin commercial property. Despite this, mostinvestors believe that there has been littleimprovement in market conditions overthe past six months with 84% stating thatconditions had either declined or stayedthe same.The outlook starts to become more positive.Although over the next six months, it isnot expected to change significantly, the12 month outlook starts to improve with30% of respondents expecting to see someimprovement. Within five years, almost all(90%) respondents expect to see a muchmore positive market.
  13. 13. 104.3 “The majority of Australian andColliers International New Zealand respondents areProperty Investor looking to target returns betweenSentiment Index - 100.4 100.4 Next 5 Years 10% and 15%...”Australia/New Zealand 100 99.7 Next 6 Next 12 Months Months Last 6 MonthsIn the next 6 months, Transaction activity year to date shows that interest in Australian property from local and portfolios (39.5%), consistent with last year. There have been slight improvements in Australianhow likely are you to take offshore investors remains solid with 2012 levels investors’ ability to raise equity from last year.more risks in order to expected to slightly exceed the $12.3 billion USD transacted in 2011. Year to date, investment This is consistent with our knowledge that many A-REITs have now re-capitalised and the cost ofachieve superior returns? volumes in Hotels, Office and Retail remain debt has been reducing. strongest. Offshore investors now account for half of all total volumes, significantly higher than the A lack of supply of “for sale” property was also 18% achieved in 2008. cited as a problem for many investors (25%). In Australia at present, both foreign and local unlikely Expansion plans investors are targeting similar types of low risk assets including prime grade office buildings, remain consistent large regional shopping centers and well located industrial assets. This has led to a significant 66% with previous year divergence in yields between prime and secondary Highly likely grade assets. It is expected that this will change The proportion of respondents looking to expand over the next 12 months given the increasing 4% their portfolios appears to have plateaued with number of local investors re-entering the market. 56% indicating that they plan to expand their level not at all likely of investment, compared to 60% last year. In Likely 2010, 46% were looking to expand. 4% Debt is typically used by 80% of investors 26% surveyed to expand portfolios and it is therefore not surprising that problems with raising new equity was the most commonly cited reason preventing investors from expanding their13 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  14. 14. 2.9 2.7 2.4 3.6 Relative attractiveness ofAs a destination for each region to Australia/Newproperty investment, 3.1 4.6 Zealand investorshow attractive are each 2.0 5.0 Veryof the following regions Attractiveto Australian & NewZealand investors? 2.6 1.9 very 1.0 unattractiveHow has the cost of Australian investors are Australian investors as preferred investment options. It is likely that this will not change significantly over the next 12debt changed in the some of the most risk prepared to fund offshore months although some local pension funds havepast 6 months? indicated that they are prepared to look globally averse in the world but not buy offshore for investment opportunities. Given that Australia has the fourth largest pension system in the world, Australian/New Zealand investors are some of the Australian/New Zealand investors source capital any movement in this particular investor to look most risk averse in the world. The majority (70%) from a variety of regions. While Australia/New globally could be a significant change in have indicated that they are unlikely or not at all Zealand was the most often cited source (49%), the market. likely to take risks to achieve superior returns over a high proportion also source capital from Asia No Change Decreased the next 6 months. This is consistent with the (19%), United States (13%) and Canada (10%). It Although investors are currently not investing in types of assets that local investors are targeting is likely that a lot of this funding is from offshore Asia, this was considered to be highly attractive as mentioned previously. pension funds. Key examples include Canadian relative to other regions, following Australia/ Pension Plan Investment Board providing $1 billion New Zealand. 24% Given the focus on low risk assets, it is not USD worth of funding to the first two towers surprising that the majority of Australian/ of Lend Lease’s Barangaroo development and At a more local level, Sydney is overwhelminglyIncreased 12% 64% New Zealand respondents are looking to target returns between 10 and 15%, a higher target National Pension Service of Korea partnering with DEXUS Property Group for the establishment of a the preferred destination with 63% of respondents indicating that they see this city as being the IRR compared to the US and Canada but lower $360 million USD portfolio of Australian industrial single global city they would most like to invest than Asia and Eastern Europe. Most classified properties. in over the next 12 months. This was followed by themselves as either low (32%) or moderate Melbourne, then Brisbane and then Perth. (46%) risk takers. Australian/New Zealand investors prefer to invest locally with Australia (53%) and New Zealand Office is the preferred sub-sector for investment (11%) being the dominant countries for their funds. by 28% of respondents. A key change from At present, few are investing in Asia with Europe last year has been interest in Industrial and and North America running ahead of this region Logistics with this now being a target for 24%14 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  15. 15. of respondents. Residential developments and The types of assets that lenders will typicallyshopping centers were also highlighted as provide funds for are generally low risk and thispreferred areas of focus by 14% and 12% of is also a key influence on what investors arerespondents respectively. targeting. As mentioned previously, most investors are focused on prime assets. “...global volatility was generally notThe interest in office is consistent with nearly seen as making property investmentall markets globally and is evident from offshore decisions more difficult.”investment in Australian property which in 2012has so far accounted for 50% of all transaction Good investments arevolumes. The largest deal undertaken this yearhas been the funding of Lend Lease’s Barangaroo increasingly more difficultoffice towers mentioned previously. Australian to findhotels are also of significant interest to offshoreinvestors as evidenced by Starhill REIT and Further freeing up of underwriting standardsShangri-La Asia both purchasing this type would no doubt have a positive impact on theof asset. market. Most investors see debt as a desirable way to leverage investments and there is no doubtIn making property investment decisions over the that restriction to this is a key problem for manynext 6 months, property fundamentals are the key Australian investors.consideration (4.6 out of 5). This is followed bythe economic growth of a region (4.4 out of 5). Competition for good investments was alsoThe factor which is least likely to be considered is highlighted as a problem. This is no doubtthe currency risk/exchange rate (2.6 out of 5). exacerbated by many lenders focused on providing funds only for low risk investments, but also aThese factors are relatively consistent in all focus by most offshore investments on the sameregions globally. Of interest to Australia, given types of assets. It is likely we will continue tothe strong appreciation of the Australian dollar, is see a divergence of the prime to secondary yieldthe lack of concern investors have with regards spread as a result but also a renewed interest into currency risk. Anecdotal evidence in Australia secondary assets as the yields becomesuggests that 12 months ago, offshore investors more attractive.were typically more concerned about this thanthey are currently. This means that offshoreinvestors are either hedging their investments, or Tweet this surveyexpect the value of the Australian dollar to remainhigh in the medium term.Debt is cheaper but noteasier to accessDebt continues to be used by the majority ofinvestors to leverage their exposure in futureinvestment decisions. Only 20% of respondentsindicated that they were unlikely to use debtas leverage.A larger number (64%) of respondents statedthat the cost of debt had decreased. In 2011, just30% believed that this was the case. Although it ischeaper to access debt, it is not necessarily easier.62% of respondents believe that there has beenno change to lenders’ underwriting standardsover the past 12 months, while 22% believe thatstandards have tightened.15 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  16. 16. “The majority of investors feel that conditions will remain the same during the next 6-12 months, with confidence rising over the 5 year horizon.” Canada Domestic investors remain active and positive in their outlook Although the global economy is working through challenges, Canada has been a solid performer, in relative terms and our Global Investor Sentiment Survey finds that it is viewed as highly attractive target for property investment. Canadian investors’ outlook in the near term is positive, while only 20% of respondents expected to see an improvement in economic conditions, this must be viewed in the context of a market that has solid fundamentals and has seen rents and values recover to pre-recession levels in most areas. The majority of investors feel that conditions will remain the same during the next 6-12 months, with confidence rising over the 5 year horizon.
  17. 17. Market activity to date in 2012 indicates that theyear is on track to meet or exceed the commercialtransaction volumes last seen in 2007. Both2011 and likely 2012 have seen record amountsof capital raised by REITs and public real estatecompanies in the Canadian markets, which hasbeen deployed into acquisitions and refinancing 104.1of portfolios. Data from Real Capital Analytics for Colliers Internationalthe year to date (Jan - Oct 2012) indicates a 17%increase in commercial transaction volumes. 102.6 102.3 Property Investor 100.2 Sentiment Index – Canada 100 Next 5 Years Last 6 Next 6 Next 12 Months Months Months In the next 6 months, Majority of investors in Canadian investors are how likely are you to take portfolio growth mode willing to take on more risk more risks in order to The overwhelming majority of investors, at 78%, In the search for returns, a notable proportion of achieve superior returns? are planning to expand their portfolio in the near investors are willing to move up the risk curve. In term. In slight contrast to their expansionary the next six months, 40% of Canadian respondents mindset, 40% of Canadian respondents think it is said they were likely to take on more risk while 53% a good time to invest while 52% are neutral and were more cautious and unlikely to take on undue Not at all likely think it is neither a good time, nor a bad time. risk. This position on risk is further evidenced The sample suggests that 54% of investors are in the sub-sector focus, with 23% of those 3% well capitalized and consequently see the supply surveyed looking at CBD Office as their top target, Unlikely of “for sale” property as the key challenge, while followed by 18% who were seeking “opportunistic” 26% see debt financing and the ability to raise acquisitions. A large contingent was also focussed capital as something that may present a hurdle on logistics (15%) and retail (15%) properties. Likely to be overcome when executing on their portfolio 53% expansion plans. Reflecting a conservative view on returns, 58% of Canadian respondents were targeting IRRs in the 40% In line with their global peers, 71% of Canadian respondents suggested that they were likely or sub 10% range. Coupled with the next IRR range, a full 76% had IRR targets of less than 15%, which is highly likely to use debt to leverage their exposure. in stark contrast to regions such as Latin America Supporting their intent to utilize debt is the fact with 57% targeting IRRs of 15 - 20%, or Asia with Highly likely that Canadian investors are in an enviable position 45% looking for returns in excess of 20%. These with respect to cost of debt, with 91% responding results are aligned with the appetite for risk seen 5% that the cost of debt had either remained the same above, with a focus on CBD Office assets, while or decreased during the past 6 months. a minority were on the hunt for opportunistic acquisitions.17 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  18. 18. 4.8 2.9 2.2 2.2As a destination for Relative attractiveness of eachproperty investment, region to Canadian investorshow attractive are each 4.2of the following regions 1.7 2.4 5.0 Very Attractiveto Canadian investors? 2.6 1.5 very 1.0 unattractiveHow has the cost of Domestic sources of (14%) and New York (8%) followed by Edmonton and Calgary at 5% each on the strength of that Availability and terms ofdebt changed in the capital are the norm region’s resource industry. debt are criticalpast 6 months? For most Canadian investors, the lion’s share of Analysis of RCA data for the year to date As stated previously, 71% of respondents intend capital (78%) is raised at home. With smaller (YTD) paints a clear picture of Canadian public to use debt to leverage property purchases. In amounts being sourced in fairly equal proportion companies and REITs being the dominant buyer the global context this is an area where Canadian between the United Kingdom with 8% and the US type with 59% of acquisitions, followed by investors have a distinct advantage, with 61% Decreased and Asia tied at 6% each. institutional investors with 25%. Cross border indicating that underwriting standards have buyers made up only 3% of the YTD loosened, or remained the same during the past No Change For Canadian respondents the domestic market is acquisition activity. 6 months. Further to the favorable underwriting the key investment focus (58%), followed by the conditions, a whopping 91% said that the cost of 10% US at 20% and Western Europe with 12%. Global Property fundamentals remain the most debt had either stayed the same or decreased. respondents ranked the top three markets very important consideration (4.6 out of 5) in Same or better is significant in a market where much the same, with the US being most attractive, guiding property investment decisions. This is the cost of debt was already at historically low 43% 48% Canada in second place, followed by Western Europe. followed by the economic growth of a region (4.3 out of 5). While currency risk is a popular levels, enabled by the crisis level bond yields. It is this availability and low cost of debt that has topic of conversation, respondents were not the Canadian domestic market so active and has If target investment markets are broken down overly concerned with currency risk/exchange prompted the concern that a lack of property forIncreased further, the desire to make acquisitions in rate being the lowest rated (2.3 out of 5) sale is the biggest obstacle to portfolio growth. the more stable nations becomes clear with consideration. The conclusion drawn for this respondents looking to Canada (53%), United finding is that those investors who venture cross The shortage of investment property in the market States (21%) and the UK (11%). When asked which border have a strategy in place to hedge against has resulted in Canadian investors venturing cross global city in which they would most like to invest currency fluctuations. border in search of opportunities and returns, the Canadians chose Toronto (62%), London some for the first time.18 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  19. 19. Good investments exist,but are more difficult “...timely and well selectedto find acquisitions in recovering marketsCanadian investors agreed strongly that “a will stand to generate excellentdisproportionate amount of capital has flowed intosafe havens” (4.5 out of 5), followed closely by the returns.”related statement that “capital values in Europe’speriphery represent a good opportunity” (4.5 outof 5). Investors also agreed strongly that goodinvestments exist, but are more difficult to find(4.3 out of 5). This suggests that investors arestarting to look at secondary opportunities. Doesthis indicate a concern for core values becomingoverpriced or due for a correction? One Europeanmarket observer posed the question, “would yourather be buying at historically high values in thecore or historically low values in the secondarymarkets?” Of course, timing and asset selectionare everything, but it would appear that timely andwell selected acquisitions in recovering marketswill stand to generate excellent returns.Tweet this survey19 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  20. 20. EMEAEMEA attractive target forproperty investmentDespite fears of a possible breakup of all or part ofthe eurozone, our Global Investor Sentiment Surveysuggests that the EMEA region is an attractive targetfor property investment. Over the next 12 months,36% of respondents expected to see an improvementin economic conditions, rising to 88% of respondentsover a five year period. Respondents from the CEEand MENA regions were generally more positive intheir outlook than the Western European investors,perhaps because they fall outside the eurozone.Compared to respondents from other regions, EMEAinvestors are some of the more positive respondentsin their outlook over the next six months.Market activity to date in 2012 reflects the weakerinvestor sentiment evident earlier in the year, with anumber of key EMEA markets showing limited growthor falling transaction volumes. Data from RCA forthe year to date (Jan - Oct 2012) indicates decliningvolumes in Germany (-35%), France (-27%) andPoland (-39%), with only modest increases in the UK(4%) and Sweden (7%).
  21. 21. “Over half (56%) of the EMEA respondents think it is a goodIn the next 6 months, how Colliers Internationallikely are you to take more Property Investor time to invest in the region ...”risks in order to achieve Sentiment Index - EMEAsuperior returns? not at all likely 104.3 2% unlikely 101.4 101.5 Next 5 59% Likely Years 100.6 100 30% Next 6 Next 12 Months Last 6 Months Highly likely Months 9%Portfolio Expansion Blackstone. Despite considerable negative press about the availability of bank finance, interestingly Investors prepared to takePlanned only 22% of respondents indicated that access to debt finance was a problem. This particular on more riskThe consensus view is that it is a good time to survey response seems counter to Colliers’ own In the hunt for higher returns, a significantinvest, but this is caveated by the assumptions knowledge and experience, which suggests proportion of investors are prepared to move upthat finance is available and suitable opportunities that significant restraints to lending remain in the risk curve, but “caution” remains the watcharise. Presently, investor focus remains on safe place across most EMEA markets. This might be word. In the next six months, 39% of EMEAhaven markets. explained by a predominantly core / core plus respondents said they were likely to take on more investor sample base who will typically have risk with 59% unlikely to take on undue risks. ThisOver half (56%) of the EMEA respondents think lower debt / LTV requirements and good existing mirrors the core and core-plus nature of the bulkit is a good time to invest in the region while 38% relationships with debt providers, so debt finance of purchases in the market recently, somethingthink it is neither a good time nor a bad time. The would not necessarily be such a constraint. With that is likely to continue in the year ahead, withsample suggests that roughly half of investors 77% of respondents suggesting that they were ‘distressed debt’ deals also likely to becomeare well capitalized and looking for opportunities, likely or highly likely to use debt to leverage their more prevalent.while a large minority are looking through current exposure, this appears to be the case. The abilitymarket conditions and reviewing opportunities on of investors to meet their expansionary ambitions Overall, 27% of respondents are targeting IRRsan asset by asset basis. comes more into question in relation to the cost in excess of 20%. This figure is boosted by of debt, as some 40%+ of respondents have cited aggressive return expectations in the less maturePortfolio expansion was planned by 59% of the increasing debt costs over the last six months. CEE and MENA regions, where development issample, although 26% said this was linked to the often the route to portfolio expansion. The majorityability to raise funds. Supply problems were also of the sample responses were from Westerncited by 26% as a key market constraint. Examples European investors, who have a more sober viewof expansive investors include sovereign wealth of market conditions, with 45% targeting IRRsfunds, Norges Bank IM and Qatari Investment of 10% or less and only 9% targeting in excessAuthority, institutional funds such as AXA REIM of 20%. This suggests that Western Europeanand TIAA-CREF and opportunity led vehicles like investors are adopting a relatively low risk strategy21 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  22. 22. 3.8 2.9 3.4 3.3 As a destination for Relative attractiveness of each property investment, region to EMEA investors how attractive are each 3.3 2.6 of the following regions 3.0 5.0 Very Attractive to EMEA investors? 2.9 2.4 very 1.0 unattractive How has the cost of with one eye on opportunistic purchases. The Western Europe is the primary focus for although international investment outstrips survey also shows that 44% of EMEA respondents investment (34%) from the EMEA respondents domestic in Frankfurt and Berlin. Comparing some debt changed in the last were either risk neutral or risk averse while 47% and is within the top three regions, after the US global cities, domestic investors account for 86% 6 months? were not averse to at least moderate levels of risk. and Canada, based on all responses globally. of investment YTD in New York City, 83% in Tokyo Whilst western Europe came out on top overall, and 78% in Shanghai. Poland, as an emerging core investment market, is each region within the EMEA region exhibited expected to see transaction levels for 2012 match a strong preference for investing in its home Unsurprisingly, CBD offices are a preferred sector the £2.5 billion achieved in 2011. While this is still territory. for 20% of EMEA respondents, with shopping modest in the wider EMEA context, it is a market centers cited by 16%. At the recent Expo Real Decreased with great potential. Colliers recently marketed the If target investment markets are broken down trade fair in Munich, the logistics sector was a hot Warsaw Financial Centre, globally, and saw good further, the dominance of perceived stable topic of conversation as ecommerce continues interest in the property from capital originating in investment environments becomes clear with to drive new demand across much of the EMEA the US, Middle East, Asia and Europe. respondents citing an investment focus on the region. It is certainly a more favored sector 20% UK (13%) and Germany (9%). The distribution of amongst investors in the more mature economies, cities is varied with, again, each EMEA territory for example, Western Europe 16%, Australia 24% 40% Home sources of tending to favour its home cities. However, Europe appears to attract more foreign investors than and the US 44%.No Change 41% capital dominate other global regions. CEE and MENA investors both express strong interest in residential development, which boosts Within the EMEA region, the majority of capital for Analysis of RCA data for the year to date (YTD) the EMEA figure to 16%. This is to be expected each territory, Western Europe, CEE and MENA, shows a divergence of sources of capital currently in countries where population growth, increasing Increased is raised in each of the respective homelands. For being invested in EMEA key city markets and incomes and urbanisation is taking place. There is example, the sample of MENA investors raised underlines London’s safe haven position for a strong demand for both good quality, affordable 100% of their capital in the MENA region. For the international capital protection. For London, and middle income housing in these markets. EMEA region as a whole, 30% of respondents 74% of the YTD investment is from international There was also a good appetite for opportunistic raised capital in Western Europe, with 17% raising sources. Looking at the top six German cities, 60% purchases (12%), particularly from Western and money in Eastern Europe and 9% targeting of capital invested is from domestic investors, CEE respondents. MENA respondents mentioned the USA. 22 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  23. 23. hotels and “other” sectors – which might include Debt is available, but the terms attached areinfrastructure, healthcare and education – and is increasingly stringent and the borrower mustrepresentative of less mature emerging markets tick all the boxes. The new paradigm faced bywhere quality hotels, medi-centers and hospitals investors is lower LTV ratios in future, perhapsare required to meet the needs of the as low as 50%. This is providing the opportunity “74% of investment in London ischanging demographics. for mezzanine debt funds to flourish – AXA and Pramerica are just two examples of funds taking from international sources YTD.”Property fundamentals remain the strongest advantage of the challenging lending environmentconsideration (4.4 out of 5) in guiding property in the region to provide mezzanine financing.investment decisions. This is followed by theeconomic growth of a region (4.3 out of 5). Whilecurrency risk can be a drag on performance, asubstantial part of the EMEA sample respondents A tale of a few citiesare operating in a single currency zone and it EMEA investors agreed strongly that “goodis therefore not surprising that currency risk/ investments exist, but are more difficult to find”exchange rate was the lowest rated (3.0 out of 5) (4.11 out of 5). Investors also agreed strongly thatconsideration. Of course, the ability to hedge also eurozone uncertainty had impacted investmentreduces the risk. within Europe (4.08 out of 5). This suggests that there is still a lack of confidence amongst investors that a long-term solution to the debtAvailability and terms of crisis is imminent. There was also strongdebt are critical agreement that a disproportionate amount of capital had flowed from high risk nations to “safe havens” (4.05 out of 5).Unsurprisingly, 76% of respondents intend to usedebt to leverage property purchases. Some 43% In Europe, those safe havens include London,felt that debt conditions had tightened over the last Paris and the major regional cities of Germanysix months, with a further 51% suggesting that who have attracted substantial internationalthere had been little change to what we know are capital. London, being outside of the eurozone, hasdifficult conditions, with underwriting standards benefited disproportionately. Not only is Londonand due diligence increasing. Furthermore, 41% capturing pension fund investments from the US,said that the cost of debt had increased. While Canada and Asia, but it is also proving undeniablyEMEA investors might like to use debt to fund attractive to private buyers from Asia and thepurchases, the reality and cost of securing that Middle East for whom wealth preservation isdebt will remain a significant hurdle in most EMEA paramount.markets for some time. With this safe haven status, also comes the concern that at some stage there will be a pricingDebt is being raised to correction. Investors are faced with riding out any fall in values or trying to sell in anticipation of apursue different types of market adjustment. Hold period and timing willopportunity play an important role in maximizing returns.While much is undoubtedly targeted at direct While we have little evidence yet of the sharpreal estate investment, there is a growing and slowdown in the French economy impactingsignificant tranche pursuing distressed debt on decisions to invest in Paris, it would not beopportunities, where potential returns can surprising to see some safe haven flows divertbe higher. from Paris to other markets in 2013. Tweet this survey23 Colliers International | 2013 Global Investor Sentiment
  24. 24. LatinAmerica Latin American investorsbullish on property marketMost respondents did not report negative opinions about the recent Latin American property market. 82% said conditions have stayed the same or improved over the last six months. The majority of respondents (63%) expect conditions to stay the same for the next six months. 31% expect improvement in conditions in the next six months.That number grows to 44% when the time horizon is expanded to a year. Only 6% of respondents expect conditions to decline within a year. Latin American investors are optimistic about the future, especially over the long term. A full 87.5%of respondents expect market improvement within the next five years.
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