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  • 1. SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIALRESEARCH & FORECAST REPORTCANBERRA COMMUNITIES Limited Housing Opportunities in Canberra Demand for new land releases within Canberra, as well as Googong, remains robust in the Second Half 2012, despite global uncertainty. Population growth, a low unemployment rate, high income levels and limited new housing options have resulted in positive absorption levels for all estates. Over the last six months 1,086 lots have transacted, two new stages and one estate have completely sold out and the first two stages, within the new town of Googong, have been released to the market. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the ACT population rose by 6,500 persons to total 370,700 as at the 2011 December quarter. In terms of percentage growth, the population base rose by 1.8% over a 12 month period, well above the national rate of 1.4%. The ACT recorded the second highest percentage increase, behind Western Australia’s (WA) 2.9%, a very sound result considering WA’s growth is being supported by the state’s mining industry. The “Indicative Land Release Programs: 2012-13 to 2015-16” states the 1.8% population growth rate translates into an estimated annual underlying demand for 3,000 new dwellings. The ACT’s population growth is assisted by the stability of the local economy. The trend unemployment rate for the ACT currently stands at 3.7%, the second lowest rate in the country, just behind WA’s 3.6%. The ACT also continues to record the highest average weekly earnings in Australia, 13% higherCoombs than the Northern Territory which is in second place and 29% above national figures.Colliers International sold 189 lots within atwo day period. One of the Region’s that has recorded strong population and housing growth is Gungahlin. The development of the Gungahlin Region has been assisted by a 50% increase in the population levels,RECENT SALES PERFORMANCE OF THE equivalent to a further 15,775 persons, between the 2006 and 2011 ABS Census data. The averageCOMMUNITY MARKET household size has remained reasonably constant, only increasing from 2.8 persons in 2006 to the current 2.9 persons. This population growth has translated into the construction of 7,842 newMOLONGLO VALLEY detached houses, equivalent to growth of 49% over the five year period. The detached housing market represents 71% of the total residential supply in the Gungahlin Region. The number ofGUNGAHLIN townhouses developed continues to grow, in line with rising house prices, and between 2006 andGOOGONG 2011 this dwelling type expanded by 42%. Colliers International anticipates demand for this smaller product will continue, not only in the Gungahlin Region but also throughout Canberra, due to the considerably higher entry cost into theKEY HIGHLIGHTS detached housing market. This change will be supported by the draft ACT Planning Strategy which aims to increase the number and percentage of attached dwellings in each district by 25%. The• Over the last six months the proportion development of the Molonglo Valley and Googong will soon follow suit as land settlements occur and of lots sold has increase by 5 percentage construction on individual housing commences. points to total 76%.• Robust demand resulted in the 189 lots offered in the first stage within Coombs being completely sold within two days.• In excess of 1,080 lots have sold over a RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKET INDICATORS - SECOND HALF 2012 six month period. Average Sold six Months to Number of Number of• Demand for the 350m² to 450m² lot has District Sale Price August 2011 Lots Remaining* Projects Available doubled between 2005 and 2011 from 11% to 22%. Molonglo Valley $358,000 189 0 0 Gungahlin $239,962 707 914 5 Googong N/A 190 32 1 * Includes lots yet to be released. Source: Colliers International
  • 2. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | CANBERRADespite demand levels LIMITED HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES IN CANBERRA CONTINUEDcontinuing Despite the increasing demand for housing, not only evident by a growing population but also the record absorption levels in land releases, new supply levels continue to be hindered by federalto lift, new supply environmental assessment delays. In essence, supply levels are not meeting demand, ensuring increasing pressure on housing prices. Looking back at the “LDA’s Statement of Intent: 2010-11” the ACT Government proposed releasing 1,900 lots in the Molonglo Valley. Yet only 714 lots, overreleases continue three stages, equivalent to 38% of the proposed total supply was brought to market in 2010-11. All the lots released in the Molonglo Valley have been purchased, with the most recent stage in theto be hindered by new suburb of Coombs selling out within a two day period. The ACT Government’s “Indicativeenvironmental Land Release Programs: 2012-13 to 2015-16” proposes to release 950 lots in the Molonglo Valley over 2012-13 and a further 3,365 lots between 2013-14 and 2015-16.assessment delays The release of new supply in the Gungahlin Region has also followed a similar trend i.e. environmental constraints have impacted the release pipeline. The “LDA’s Statement of Intent: 2010-11” stated the Gungahlin Region was set to benefit from a further 1,000 lots. Only two new releases eventuated, Broadview with a total 475 lots and Jacka with 98 lots in the first stage. The “Indicative Land Release Programs: 2012-13 to 2015-16” states Gungahlin will see the release of 497 lots in 2012-13 and a further 4,420 lots between 2013-14 and 2015-16. As there has been no improvement to the environmental assessment process the past track record suggests the ACT’s indicative land release program is unlikely to go to plan in relation to the release of standard residential blocks going forward and supply issues will continue. HOUSING SUPPLY The issues hampering the ACT’s land release program have translated into falling house approval numbers. Over the first six months of 2012 a total of 579 new houses were approved in the northern suburbs of Bonner, Casey, Crace, Forde and Franklin. Assuming the current trend recorded in the first six months of 2012 continues over the remainder of the year, total annual figures are anticipated to be slightly above 2011 levels. However, the expected 2012 figures will remain approximately 21% below the peak levels recorded in 2010. HOUSE APPROVALS IN NORTHERN CANBERRA 1,600 1,400 No. of House Approvals 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan-Jun 2012 Bonner Casey Crace Forde Franklin Harrison Source: ABS INFRASTRUCTURE In July 2012 the proposal for the Majura Parkway was approved and preparation works have now commenced. The Majura Parkway will provide 11.5 kilometres of dual carriageway connecting the Monaro Highway, near Pialligo, with the Federal Highway. The project is due for completion in mid-2016. Ease of mobility for residents in Northern Canberra will improve considerably thus further driving demand for new housing in the Gungahlin Region. The Edwin Land Parkway extension has opened and the Monaro Highway duplication, between Canberra Avenue and Newcastle Street, in Fyshwick has also been completed. These upgrades will have a positive impact on the future residents in Googong as access to the Queanbeyan CBD and Fyshwick has been enhanced. Road upgrades that are currently under consideration in Gungahlin which will assist with traffic management and flow to and from the Region include the Horse Park Drive Duplication; Horse Park Drive Mapleton Avenue; The Valley Avenue Extension; Barton Highway/Curran Drive Intersection Upgrade; Gundaroo Drive Duplication; and the Barton Highway/Gundaroo Drive Intersection. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 2
  • 3. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | CANBERRA Molonglo Valley, Gungahlin and Googong Over the last six months the Canberra Community market has witnessed the release of 527 lots within three new releases in the Molonglo Valley and Gungahlin. However, such is the level of demand for land within Canberra two new releases have been completely absorbed. Furthermore, the estate of Forde with 1,106 lots is now sold out. The new town of Googong, located approximately 8 kilometres south of Queanbeyan and within NSW, has released a further 222 lots over two stages. Colliers International estimates there are approximately 914 lots currently remaining in Canberra and a further 32 lots in Googong. The total level of supply available is five percentage points below the figure recorded in the First Half 2012 report. In excess of 1,080 lots have sold over a six month period. The first stage of the second suburb in the Molonglo Valley, Coombs, was recently released to market by Colliers International. Continual demand for product in the Molonglo Valley resulted in the 189 lots being snapped up within a two day period. Purchasers within Coombs included first home buyers as well as upgraders. The average sale price was $358,000 whilst the average lot size was 520m². The success of Coombs follows on from Wright, the first suburb in the Molonglo Valley. Colliers International sold 100 lots in Wright within one day and an additional 228 lots within a matter of weeks via ballot. In Gungahlin the LDA sold the first stage (98 lots) in Jacka via ballot. The majority of the purchasers in Jacka were first home buyers, who were attracted to the affordability of the estate. In comparison to Coombs, the average sale price was $235,412 and the average lot size was 478m². The lower average sale price is not only reflective of the size of the lots but also the distance to the Canberra CBD. As the release of new supply in Canberra has been hampered due to environmental issues the first two stages released in Googong North have been positively received by the market. Of the 222 lots released to date approximately 86% have been absorbed. The wide lot size range, 344m² to 998m², appealed to all buyer types and settlement for the initial stages is anticipated to occur in the Second Half 2013. The buyers mostly comprised a mix of first, second and third home buyers from Queanbeyan and Jerrabomberra who are seeking the opportunity to construct a new home. Buyers from the southern part of Canberra have also displayed interest in Googong due to the low probability of new land releases eventuating in their locality. Stage three will be released in September and the average lot size and price is 566m² and $244,000, well below recent average sale prices achieved in Coombs and Jacka. Upon completion the new township of Googong, which is a Joint Venture between Mirvac and CIC Australia Ltd, will comprise of 5,438 lots. ACTIVITY - RESIDENTIAL ESTATES Year Estate Suburb District Status Total Lots Sold to Date Remaining % Sold Commenced Coombs Coombs Molonglo Valley U/C 2012 189 189 0 100% Jacka (Stage 1) Jacka Gungahlin U/C 2012 98 98 0 100% Springbank Rise Casey Gungahlin U/C 2009 1,184 715 469 60% Casey 4 Casey Gungahlin U/C 2012 240 180 60 75% Broadview Ngunnawal Gungahlin U/C 2011 475 220 255 46% Crace Crace Gungahlin U/C 2009 1,460 1,330 130 91% Googong North Googong Googong U/C 2012 222 190 32 86% (Stages 1 & 2) Total 3,868 2,922 946 76%Source: Colliers International Research COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
  • 4. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | CANBERRA New Supply Pipeline Whilst numerous rural suburbs have been earmarked as future residential development sites the likelihood of several of them proceeding in the short-medium term is becoming increasingly scant due to environmental hurdles. The impediments associated with the environmental assessment process has delayed much of the land release program. In some instances the developable area has been considerably scaled back. For example, the proposed number of lots in Throsby, in the Gungahlin Region, has been reduced from 3,400 to 1,200-1,500. Furthermore, there is no release date identified on the “Indicative Land Release Programs: 2012-13 to 2015-16” suggesting the site will not be developed in the short-medium term. Environmental issues have also delayed Moncrieff in the Gungahlin Region with an Environmental Impact Statement required which is estimated to take 12-18 months to complete. The soil composition in Kenny is likely to result in the planned 4,200 lots falling to 2,100 lots. If the land releases noted in the “Indicative Land Release Programs” do go ahead the probability of the actual number of lots identified being developed is unlikely to be a reality. Other future urban areas planned to be released in the Gungahlin Region include Jacka (North) which is also undergoing environmental studies and offers 175 hectares and Taylor with 302 hectares. Kinlyside, west of Casey, also has 199 hectares. Whilst these sites are proposed to be transformed from the current rural land use into residential lots, alongside mixed-uses and open space, if and when these sites are released to market is yet to be determined. Despite the success recorded in the Molonglo Valley, no release date for the next stage is available. Supply is not being brought forward to keep up with the ever increasing demand. Upon completion Coombs is expected to provide approximately 651 residential lots, 21 multi-unit residential lots (1,982 dwellings), 5 mixed-use blocks (378 dwellings) and community lots. Coombs will be released to the market over four stages. The Molonglo Valley land release program is planned to occur over 25 to 30 years. The total number of lots proposed for the new town of Googong has been revised upwards to 5,774 in total. Stage three of Googong is set to be released to the market in September 2012. The 57 lots in stage three will range from 347m² to 877m² with prices between $182,000 and $321,000. The average lot size is 582m² whilst the average lot price is $248,000. Demand for lots in Googong is set to rise as the NSW First Home Owner Grant (New Homes) scheme of $15,000, commences on 1 October 2012. Currently purchasers in NSW also benefit from the First Home-New Home scheme which provides stamp duty exemptions on new homes up to $550,000 and on vacant lots up to $350,000. For houses and vacant lots priced up to $650,000 and $450,000 respectively reductions on the stamp duty costs are also available. Non-first home buyers purchasers can take advantage of the $5,000 grant for those who build a new dwelling. Googong provides purchasers an affordable entry point into the marketplace and coupled with the NSW Government rebates sale levels are anticipated to lift. The following graph identifies the proportion of lots remaining in the Communities in Canberra and Googong i.e. the short to medium term supply. As there is no certainty surrounding the timing or the number of lots pertaining to the sites in the “Indicative Land Release Programs” they have been excluded. SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM SUPPLY OPTIONS Googong North (Stages 1 & 2) 3% Crace 14% Springbank Rise 50% Broadview 27% Casey 4 6% Source: Colliers International Research COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 4
  • 5. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | CANBERRA General Land Market • The following analysis includes the sales of • The strength of the Forde market continues vacant lots over 200m², in Northern Canberra, with 84 sales reported over the Second Half that have settled and been recorded on RP 2011, a 45% increase over the six month Data as at December 2011. Previous figures period. Since 2006 a total of 1,168 lots have have also been revised due to time lags sold in Forde. between exchange, settlement and data • The median sale price for vacant land in the availability. Sales that were sold in one line or Northern Canberra suburbs fell by 3% from not at arm’s length have been excluded. the peak of $257,000 to the current • Between 2005 and 2011 approximately $249,000 over the six month period. 3,367 vacant lots have sold and settled in • Franklin recorded the highest median sale Crace, Casey, Forde, Bonner, price of $300,000 in the Second Half 2011, Franklin and Harrison. an increase of 5% and 14% over the six and • The lack of supply is clearly demonstrated in 12 month period. the Second Half 2011 as only 246 lots • Despite the median price declining by transacted, a 49% decline over the six month 11% over the six month period from the peak period. This is the lowest result recorded of $298,000 as at First Half 2011, Forde since the Second Half 2008, during the GFC reported the second highest median price of when only 156 lots were sold. $265,000 in the Second Half 2011. DEMAND AND MEDIAN PRICES FOR VACANT LOTS IN NORTHERN CANBERRA 700 300,000 600 250,000 Median Sale Price ($) 500 200,000 No. of Sales 400 150,000 300 100,000 200 500,00 100 0 0 H105 H205 H106 H206 H107 H207 H108 H208 H109 H209 H110 H210 H111 H211 Bonner Casey Crace Forde Franklin Harrison Median Sale Price Source: RP Data VACANT LOT TURNOVER BY SUBURB: 2005 TO JUNE 2011 Bonner 5% Harrison 15% Casey 25% Franklin 9% Crace 11% Forde 35% Source: RP Data COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 5
  • 6. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | CANBERRA GENERAL LAND MARKET CONTINUED • Since 2005 the most popular lot size range • Due to rising affordability issues turnover of purchased is 450m² to 550m² with 34% of the 550m² to 650m² lot has fallen from all sales. However, the proportion of sales in 26% in 2005 to 14% in 2011. this lot size range has wavered over the • The $200,000 to $300,000 price range years from 42% in 2005, to 28% in 2008 continues to dominate the Northern Canberra and 2009 to the current 43% for 2011. suburbs. In 2007, 56% of sales fell within • The popularity of the smaller lot continues to this price range and in 2011 this figure had grow with turnover of the 250m² to 350m² lot risen to 77%, the highest proportion to date. rising from 6% in 2005 to 10% in 2011. • Due to limited supply releases and the Demand for the 350m² to 450m² lot has subsequent price growth, associated with doubled from the 11% in 2005 to 22% in 2011. pent up demand, the number of sales in the $300,000 to $400,000 price range has grown from 6% in 2007 to 13% in 2011. NUMBER OF VACANT LOT SALES BY PRICE RANGE IN NORTHERN CANBERRA 700 600 500 No. of Sales 400 300 200 100 0 H209 H110 H210 H111 H211 $100k-$200k $200k-$300k $300k-$400k $400k-$500k Source: RP Data GENERAL MARKET INDICATORS - VACANT LAND Median Sale Price Half Yearly Suburb Annual Change Change H111 H211 Bonner $251,000 $232,500 -7% 6% Casey $229,500 $257,500 12% 14% Crace $280,000 $254,250 -9% -7% Forde $298,000 $265,000 -11% 0% Franklin $285,750 $300,000 5% 14% Harrison $259,000 $140,444* -46% -53% * The median sale price has been skewed as 26 of the 31 lots sold were 250m². Source: RP Data COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 6
  • 7. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | CANBERRA General House Market • The following analysis includes the sales of • Over the six month period the median house new and established houses on lots over sale price achieved in the Northern Canberra 200m², in Northern Canberra, that have suburbs has declined by 1% from the peak of settled and been recorded on RP Data as at $540,000 in the First Half 2011 to $535,000 December 2011. Previous figures have also in the Second Half 2011. Since 2005 the been revised due to time lags between median house price has risen by 30%. exchange, settlement and data availability. • Despite recording a 3% decline over the six Sales that were sold in one line or not at month period Forde had the highest median arm’s length have been excluded. house price of $570,000 in the Second Half • Between 2005 and 2011 approximately 2011. Casey recorded the second highest 2,310 houses have sold and settled in Crace, median house price of $540,000, equivalent Casey, Forde, Bonner, Franklin and Harrison. to 1% growth over the six months. • The number of house transactions declined • Crace reported the highest percentage by 4% over the six month period to total 246. growth (5%) over the six month period. • Yet again Harrison dominated the housing market with a total of 1,035 sales since 2005, equivalent to 45% of the transactions in Northern Canberra. DEMAND AND MEDIAN PRICES FOR HOUSES IN NORTHERN CANBERRA 400 600,000 350 500,000 300 Median Sale Price ($) 400,000 250 No. of Sales 200 300,000 150 200,000 100 100,000 50 0 0 H105 H205 H106 H206 H107 H207 H108 H208 H109 H209 H110 H210 H111 H211 Bonner Casey Crace Forde Franklin Harrison Median Sale Price Source: RP Data HOUSE TURNOVER BY SUBURB: 2005 TO 2011 Bonner 5% Casey 14% Harrison Crace 44% 4% Forde 12% Franklin 21% Source: RP Data COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 7
  • 8. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | CANBERRA GENERAL HOUSE MARKET CONTINUED • The growing demand for the smaller housing • The $400,000 to $500,000 price range has lot continues. In 2005 the 250m² to 350m² also recorded a decline in the proportion of and the 350m² to 450m² lots represented sales from 74% of all transactions in 2005 to 8% and 18% of all sales and in 2011 the 25% in 2011. market share of these lot ranges has grown • In 2006 only 7% of sales were in the to 14% and 26% respectively. $500,000 to $600,000 range, the first year • In comparison the popularity of the 450m² to sales were recorded in this category, and in 550m² and 550m² to 650m² lot size range has 2011 the proportion had risen to 46%. declined from 50% and 16% respectively of all Between 2010 and 2011 the $500,000 to sales in 2005 to the current 37% and 12%. $600,000 range has grown by 11 percentage • The cost of entry into the Northern Canberra points. The ever increasing housing cost housing market has risen over the years. In explains the popularity of the smaller lot. 2005, 26% of all sales were in the $300,000 • The first transaction in the $600,000 to to $400,000 price range whilst in 2011 this $700,000 price range first occurred in 2007 figure had fallen to 1%. with only 5% of all sales. In 2011 the proportion of turnover in this market had grown to 18%. NUMBER OF HOUSE SALES BY PRICE RANGE IN NORTHERN CANBERRA 400 350 300 Number of Sales 250 200 150 100 50 0 H209 H110 H210 H111 H211 $200k-$300k $300k-$400k $400k-$500k $500k-$600k $600k-$700k $700k-$800k $800k-$900k $900k-$1m $1m+ Source: RP Data GENERAL MARKET INDICATORS - VACANT LAND Median Sale Price Half Yearly Annual Suburb Change Change H111 H211 Bonner $500,000 $506,000 1% 10% Casey $533,000 $540,000 1% 5% Crace $510,000 $535,000 5% 2% Forde $572,150 $527,500 -8% -20% Franklin $585,000 $517,000 -12% -8% Harrison $586,000 $570,000 -3% 3% Source: RP Data COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 8
  • 9. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | CANBERRAOutlook 522 offices inThe fundamentals driving demand in the Canberra housing market continue to remain favourable. 62 countries onAustralia’s capital city currently records the highest weekly average earnings, the second lowestunemployment rate and the second highest annual population growth rate in the nation. These 6 continentsdrivers have resulted in the first land release in Coombs and Jacka selling out. Demand for product United States: 147 officesin the Molonglo Valley is so high 189 lots transacted within a two day period. Yet despite the evidence Canada: 37 officesrevealing a high level of demand for new housing options, land releases are limited. Latin America: 19 offices Asia Pacific: 201 officesIf the past is anything to go by the Canberra land market will be faced with uncertainty going EMEA: 118 officesforward. The uncertainty is in regards to the timing of the next land release. Delays associated withenvironmental obstructions are leading to the land release program being rescheduled. Furthermore, • $1.5 billion in annual revenuethe implied number of lots initially identified in the “Indicative Land Release Programs” and the • 1.2 billion square feet underactual number of lots that can be developed is often very different, adding further pressure to the managementsupply pipeline. • Over 12,300 professionalsPent-up demand will continue to place tension on the housing market unless new sites are released tothe market. Colliers International anticipates this imbalance in the demand and supply equation willresult in both land and house price growth in the short and medium term. The rising cost of entry intothe housing market will give rise to the smaller lots i.e. lots ranging in size from 250m² to 450m² will COLLIERS INTERNATIONALbecome the norm, not the exception. The number of completed, attached dwellings being offered to the Ground Floor,market will also increase as developers seek to provide further types of affordable housing. 21-23 Marcus Clarke Street, Canberra ACT 2600Absorption levels in Googong are expected to lift as buyers are spurred on by the new NSW First TEL 02 6257 2121Home Owner Grant which comes into effect on 1 October 2012. The added $15,000 incentive, FAX 02 6257 2937coupled with the First Home-New Home scheme which is offered in NSW and the lower entry cost,when compared to the Canberra market, will drive buyers to the new town centre. The recentlycompleted Monaro Highway duplication will also assist buyers with their purchasing decision. Ifdelays to the ACT land supply program continue for the foreseeable future Canberra buyers are likelyto be further enticed to Googong as demand is set to continue, regardless of the issues surrounding RESEARCHERthe supply pipeline. Ariel Pollard Director | Research TEL 02 9257 0222 FAX 02 9347 0865 Paul Powderly State Chief Executive TEL 02 6257 2121 FAX 02 6257 2937 Colliers International does not give any warranty in relation to the accuracy of the information contained in this report. If you intend to rely upon the information contained herein, you must take note that the information, figures and projections have been provided by various sources and have not been verified by us. We Ho rse Pa have no belief one way or the other in relation to the rk Dr ive accuracy of such information, figures and projections. CANBERRA REGION Colliers International will not be liable for any loss or Bonner damage resulting from any statement, figure, calculation or any other information that you rely upon that is km Forde 20 Casey contained in the material. COPYRIGHT - Colliers International 2012. Gu Franklin ng ah lin Dr Harrison km ive 15 Crace ay hw Hig km al 10 Fe der e riv Avenue lD el sw Ca Northborne Civic m 5k ad Majura Ro Molonglo Valley Fairb Parkes Way arn Ave nue Canberra International Airport Parliament House ue Adelaide Aven oad er R Cott Accelerating success. GoogongPrepared by Colliers International Research COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. Tuggerano Hindmarsh Drive n