Slides given to a workshop organised by the Foundation for the Future, in Seattle, WA, USA, to commemorate 7 billion day

1. 1Dian Fossey (1932-1985) and young mountain gorilla
A/Prof Colin D Butler
Global ecological destinies: fashioned by
population, politics and denial
Foundation for
the Future
7 billion day
Bellevue, WA, USA.
October 27-28, 2011
National Centre for
Epidemiology and Population
Health

2. Two Parts
1. Political demography and the “Cornucopian
enchantment”
Mao, Malthus in the White House
Malthus out of the White House
2. Global ecological futures
2

3. Hung Liang-chi (1744-
1809)
Honda Toschiaki (1744-
1821)
Thomas Malthus
(1766-1834)
Population/resources: an old debate
3

4. 4

5. 1960s-1970s
Contraceptive pill, Papal Birth Control Commission (63-66)
President LB Johnson: grain to India
Peak population growth rate (2-2.1%) (68)
Green Revolution
Norman Borlaug’s warning (70)
“Limits to Growth”, Stockholm – environment conference (72)
Bucharest: “development best contraceptive” (Karan Singh)
(74)
5

6. President Richard Nixon (1969-74)
“countries .. need to maintain real economic
growth rates of 3% just to keep their per
capita incomes from dropping. Unchecked
population growth will put them on an ever-
accelerating treadmill that will outpace any
potential economic performance"
6

7. 1980s-2011
grain per capita peaks (85)
ascendancy of “neoliberalism” (excessive faith in market forces, deregulation)
Reagan on population, demographers (especially US) change course
Larry Summers (91)
Earth Summit (92)
oil >$140/barrel (08)
Global financial and food crises, worsening climate change (08-11)
7

8. The Cornucopian Enchantment
Simon: “the notion of something being infinite is
very much a matter of how we look at it..”
“The Ultimate Resource”
“From a high point some 10-15 years ago,
intellectual concern about population has
steadily waned to a position where it falls
now somewhere between ocean mining and
acid rain” (McNicoll and Nag, 1982)
8

9. President Ronald Reagan
• When questioned about population growth
the New York Times reported he considered
the problem to have been “vastly exagerated”
(Finkle and Crane, 1985)
9

10. 1990s
1991: Larry Summers: “no...limits to the
carrying capacity of earth likely to bind any time in the
foreseeable future. There isn't a risk of an apocalypse due to
global warming or anything else. The idea that we should put
limits on growth because of some natural limit, is a profound
error and one that, were it ever to prove influential, would have
staggering social costs.” (quoted in George and Sabelli, 1994)
10

11. World Population: 0-2011
11
11
infection (plague),
undernutrition,
unfavourable climate
Borlaug’s warning
Le Bras: “The problem has become a bit passé”
Reagan: problem “vastly exagerated”
Summers: “no limits to carrying capacity”

12. 12
Food prices: 1990-2011 (Raw data: FAO)
oil
causation more complex:
oil price + extreme weather events?
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Food Price Index Cereals Price Index

13. Global Hunger: dream, reality (Butler, in press, data FAO)
13
NB: excludes micronutrient undernutrition
Borlaug’s warning
World scientist’s warning
to humanity
World Food Summit
reality

14. Global
ecological
futures
14
Jane Goodall (b 1934)

15. Secretariat of the Convention on
Biological Diversity (CBD)
Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 (2010)
“Combined changes in land use, exploitation of
forests and marine resources, .. climate change
.. projected .. to result in significant changes in
the distribution and abundance of species.”
I=P*A*T (Impact = Pop’n*Affluence*Technology)
(Ehrlich and Holdren, 1971)
15

16. P
A
T
“main” drivers for deteriorating mammal species (1996–2008)
16
Hoffman et al, IUCN 2011
RED list
index
status

17. Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 (2010)
“Following .. Earth Summit .. other summits
addressed global issues that intersect with the
global sustainable development agenda .. These
included small island developing states, migratory
fish stocks, human rights, population and
development, human settlements, women,
and social development. The programmes of
action and commitments emerging from these
are highly relevant for sustainable development,
and to the objectives of the Convention on
Biological Diversity p 246
17

18. 18
regional population expected to collapse from
.. 6.5 million bats to fewer than 65,000 (99% decline)
Source: Frick et al, 2010
White nose syndrome in the little brown bat
I=P*A*T*K*U*G
K*U*G: knowledge, understanding, governancee
BA
C

19. 19

20. Photo: Ken Cassman
20

21. 21
The Amazon’s Vicious Cycles: Drought and Fire in the
Greenhouse. Ecological and Climatic Tipping Points of the World’s Largest
Tropical Rainforest.
Nepstad et al, 2007

22. 22

23. 23
The Amazon’s Vicious Cycles: Drought and Fire in the
Greenhouse. Ecological and Climatic Tipping Points of the World’s Largest
Tropical Rainforest, and Practical preventive Measures.
Nepstad et al, 2007

24. 24

25. 25

26. 26
Amazonia 2030, if current trends continue
Nepstad et al, 2007
I=P*A*T*K*U*G*F
K*U*G: knowledge, understanding, governancee
F= Feedback

27. 27

28. 28
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (adapted)
I=P*A*T*K*U*G*F
P*A*T: population, affluence, technology
K*U*G: knowledge, understanding, governance
F= feedback

29. 29
Science, 2006

30. 30
Field et al, 2009
Governance
also
P*A*T
Illegal fishing:
northern
Australia

31. 31
Millenium Ecosystem Assessment
scenarios:ecosystem services improve in
part in three scenarios by 2050

32. Adapted from FAO: 2010 (SOWFaA) 32
World fisheries production: wild vs farmed
some used for aquaculture, some as fertiliser
year
aquaculture

33. 33

34. “We abuse land because we regard it as a commodity
belonging to us. When we see land as a community to
which we belong, we may begin to use it with love
and respect.” (Aldo Leopold 1949)
Thank you
34
I=P*A*T*K*U*G*F*L
P*A*T: population, affluence, technology
K*U*G: knowledge, understanding, governance, feedback
L: love