Why time complicates climate change - and what to do about it

Climate change and time traps …andwhat to doDisclaimer: not necessarily theviews of the Welsh Government

Time trap 1: environmental inertia

IPCC emissions scenarios Modelled warming Source: Hadley Centre

Time trap 2: infrastructure upgrade

Time trap 3: innovation

Toyota hybrid sales 800Thousands 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Toyota total sales - hybrid and non-hybrid 10.0Millions 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Time trap 4: changing human behaviour

Smoking prevalence All > age 16 (Britain)504540353025201510 5 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Time trap 5: economic expectations

Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.01.21.00.80.60.4 10x0.20.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.01.21.00.8 2.4% per person0.6 per year0.40.20.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.08.07.06.05.04.0 7x3.02.01.00.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

GDP growth has huge GHG increase potentialCO2 emissions per capita (tonnes/year) GDP per capita current US$ World Bank – World Development Indicators . Visualisation by Google public data explorer

Most important issues facing Britain100 90 Pollution / environment 80 70 60 Ozone hole 50 Peak concern on climate 40 change 30 20 10 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Most important issues facing Britain100 90 80 Unemployment 70 Economy 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Non-negotiable? Living within ecological limits is the non negotiable basis for our social and economic development Jonathan Porritt

The negotiation

Time trap 6: price expectations

Oil price US$/barrel Brent crude160140120100 80 60 40 20 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Carbon price expectations Shadow cost of carbon £/tCO2 EU ETS carbon price 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Part 2: What to do about it?

What to do 1: just stop it!

Stop it! The 2oC commitment… CO2 scenarios for approximately 37% chance of not exceeding 2°C. Developing countries peak in 2020 and fall at 8% per year after Developed countries peak in 2010 and fall at 10% per year after Anderson K , Bows A Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:20-44

What to do 2: form clubs

20 countries - 80% emissions Source: Garnaut Climate Change Review

Concentration in innovation investment Gross expenditure on public & private R&D , 2007 100% Percentage share of global total 80 60 40 20 0 Japan China France Korea Brazil Canada United United India Germany Kingdom Russia StatesSource: David Victor, Global Warming Gridlock - citing UNESCO data

What to do 3: switch to policies & measures

What to do 4: pricing not quantities Create a carbon price 2010= 1.0 16.0 14.0 • Globally co-ordinated carbon tax • Nationally collected 12.0 • Predictably rising • Very long term 10.0 • No shocks 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

What to do 5: deals• Nuclear fuel cycle management• LNG infrastructure for China• Forest and sink protection• Grid infrastructure for desert solar concentrators• Product and building energy efficiency standards• Water trading and river basin management• Carbon pricing with border tax adjustments• Global sectoral agreements – automotive, aviation, steel• Etc etc…

What to do 6: focus on ‘no regrets’

What to do 7: innovation strategy Energy storage density Hydrogen GasolineEnergy density by weight (watt hours / kg) 10,000 Ethanol CNG Bio-diesel Liquid fuels Diesel Gaseous fuels 1,000 Hydrogen absorbing alloy Batteries 100 Lithium-ion Nickel metal 10 Lead 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Energy density by volume (watt hours / litre) Source: Toyota

What to do 8: emphasise adaptation

Misallocation: low carbon vs adaptation? Source: Policy Exchange, Delivering 21st Infrastructure for Britain, 2009

Anticipate harmful mal-adaptations

What to do 9: the geoengineering hedge

What to do 10: future proofing

Six time traps1. Environmental response2. Infrastructure3. Innovation4. Human behaviour Thank you5. Economic expectations6. Price signalsWhat to do? Ten thoughts…1. Stop it!2. Clubs3. Policies & measures4. Global carbon price5. Deals6. No-regrets7. Innovation8. Adaptation9. Geoengineering hedge10. Future proofing

Why time complicates climate change - and what to do about it

by Clive Bates

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