Climate change, hydro-conflicts and human security Presentation Transcript
Climate change, hydro-conflicts, and human security (CLICO) Itay Fischhendler Hebrew University EU Israel Climate Change Workshop University of Haifa
Collaborative 3-year research project
Funded : EC FP7 Co-operation Work Programme: SSH (2009)
Led by ICTA , Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (Spain)
14 partners in Europe (EU +non-EU), Middle East, and Sahel
Area of study : med-Eur, Maghreb, Middle East, and Sahel
Explore social dimensions of climate change: conditions under which hydro-climatic hazards infringe upon security of human populations
focus on water-related events (droughts, floods and sea level rise) that are expected to intensify
The causality between environment and security environment security conflicts scarcity supply demand abundance weak society legitimacy security security conflicts environmental scarcity Environmental threat collective action and trust security peace building
Securitizing the environment “ We have to prevent further environmental degradation. If we fail these problems will cause terrorism, tension and war” (Clinton, 1994) “ The next war in the Middle East will be fought over water, not politics” (Egyptian Foreign Minister, and later UN Secretary General, Boutrous Ghali) “ The Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part from climate change.” (UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, 2007) “ climate change " would challenge US national security in ways that be considered immediately" ( Schwartz and Randall, 2003)
What are we securitizing: Reliable supply Energy security is “reliable and adequate supply at a reasonable price" (Bielecki, 2002) Energy security
What are we securitizing: our existence Ecological security Climate security Climate security is "stable climate or maintaining a rate of change below the dangerous levels for human and ecological systems" (Stripple 2002)
What are we securitizing: our values Water and food security Food security is access by all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life (World Bank, 1986)
climate change –> social impacts –> security issue
The chain has rarely been substantiated with reliable evidence
Aim & objectives
Why some countries and communities are more vulnerable to natural hazards
Under what conditions vulnerability becomes a security matter?
What policies and institutions are necessary to ensure adaptation, security and peace in the face of climatic change?
RESEARCH BLOCK 4 : the affect of uncertainty on the climate/security nexus adaptive capacity mechanisms Conflict Resolution Mechanisms How uncertainty is embedded Into agreements mechanisms embedded into the agreements What affect their choice What affect their performance type of uncertainties their commonality in agreements The affect of Uncertainty
A content analysis of all available agreements signed since
1980 was undertaken
Only treaties concerning water as a scarce or consumable
resource, or an ecosystem to be improved, are included in
The Trans-boundary Freshwater Dispute Database was used
as the database
A total of 289 basin specific agreements signed after 1900
were left for analysis
In each agreement we identified the uncertain language,
mechanisms employed to deal with uncertainties and
classified them according to the uncertainty management
treaty design resource degradation scarcity inequitable distribution Risk of uncertainty reducing uncertainty open-end approach complete contracts ignoring uncertainty treaty effectiveness + ratification internal politics global economy Exogenous background uncertainties high politics resource variability and quality resource vulnerability Exogenous resource uncertainties induced endogenous uncertainties
Uncertainty Language in Transboundary Water agreements, 1857-1999 Nature of Uncertainty % of sample in which mentioned Exogenous Resource Uncertainties Flow variability 49% General environmental uncertainty 13% Scientific uncertainty 4% Exogenous background uncertainties Political uncertainty 8% Endogenous uncertainties Uncertainty about treaty implementation 7% Uncertainty about data 1% Uncertainty about treaty finance 6% Uncertainty about treaty effectiveness 4% Uncertainty about treaty created infrastructure 18%
Frequency of Uncertainty Language
Change in the composition of uncertainty strategies over time
Conflict Resolution Mechanisms
What mechanisms available?
What mechanisms adopted in real life?
What affects their choice?
What constitutes barriers to its adoption?
Conceptual Model: a TC approach to CRM adoptuoon
box - dependent variable elipse - independent variable bold line - highly significant positive correlation thin line - significant positive correlation dotted line - significant negative correlation dashed line - highly significant negative correlation legend