The emergence of Web3D

April 25, 2008 The Emergence Of Web3D Erica Driver Principal Analyst Forrester Research

Theme Interactivity + immersion = engagement, and Web3D will deliver in five to seven years time.

Agenda
What is Web3D?
Web3D drivers
We will work very differently in five to seven years.
How we think it will all play out
Recommendations

A simplified explanation of Web3D Private network Avatar Serious games Virtual worlds Immersive workspaces Source: Second Life (http://secondlife.com/); Virtual Heroes (http://www.virtualheroes.com/) Internet

Forrester’s definition of Web3D
System of linked interactive 3-D and 2-D environments
People will be able to move among these environments in a seamless, natural way.
Will deliver an interactive, immersive experience
People will be represented visually by avatars that can move in space and communicate with others.
Will integrate with Web 1.0 and Web 2.0 tools and technologies as well as business software apps
The next major wave in the Internet’s evolution

Agenda
What is Web3D?
Web3D drivers
Recommendations

What’s propelling Web3D forward?
Relentless focus on innovation
Rising expectations due to Technology Populism and Social Computing
A changing workforce that requires a technology refresh
Investor, vendor, and early adopter activity
Med students learn interaction skills just as well in virtual environments as in physical ones

Investor, vendor, and early adopter activity
$1.5 billion invested in virtual world companies in five quarters from Q4 2006-Q4 2007
Early adopters: BP, Cisco, IBM, Intel, Michelin

Med students learn interaction skills just as well in virtual environments as in physical ones Source: Parvati Dev, W. LeRoy Heinrichs, Laura Kusumuto, and Patricia Youngblood, “ Virtual Worlds and Team Training,” Anesthesiology Clinics, Volume 25 , Issue 2 Mean student scores Pre-test and post-test student scores

Agenda
What is Web3D?
Web3D drivers
Recommendations

Teach, learn, and practice in a way that feels “real” Source: Virtual Heroes Training medical students and professionals

Use new methods to teach complex concepts Source: Michelin Group enterprise architecture island in Second Life Teaching enterprise architects how to build road maps

Collaborate on information in new ways Source: Gus Rosania, PhD; University of Michigan College of Pharmacy Analyzing complex data for drug discovery process 8 images 24 meters 36 meters 12 images

Interact with colleagues in virtual workspaces Attending a conference “in-world” Source: snapshot taken in a Multiverse session during Life 2.0 conference

Build or import and share 3-D designs and models Source: Flickr, Studio Wikitecture (http://www.flickr.com/photos/studiowikitecture) Studio Wikitecture: collaborative architecture

Manage projects in bottom-up ways Source: Flickr, Claudia Linden (http://www.flickr.com/photos/claudialinden/2106802302/) Studio Wikitecture’s wiki tree

Transform presentations into tours Source: Palomar West island in Second Life (http://www.pph.org/media.aspx?news=196) Hospital of the future: Palomar West

Manage complex real-world systems remotely Source: EOLUS One island in Second Life Implenia facilities operations center

Agenda
What is Web3D?
Web3D drivers
Recommendations

Evolution of the multidimensional Web Immersive Interactive Static Text UI Basic graphical UI Rich, interactive graphical UI 3-D digital experience Hybrid virtual/real-world experience Pre-Web Internet World Wide Web Web 2.0 Web3D WebXD Interactivity Richness of user experience

Today (2008) Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors
Dozens of vendors
Few virtual worlds used for work open to the public
Lack of standards
A few virtual worlds support standard 3-D content creation tools.
Dearth of easy to use 3-D content creation tools
Little integration with business software applications
Serious games in use
Early-stage experimentation in businesses for team collaboration, meetings, conferences, recruiting
Ease of content creation
Troublesome interfaces and poor avatar control mechanisms
Inability to use content in whichever virtual environment you want
Embedded IP protection for copy, transfer, and modify
Computers with inadequate graphics cards, processing power
Corporate IT security policies may restrict access to Web3D until implications are better understood.

In three to four years (2011–2012) Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors
100s or 1,000s of tech vendors selling Web3D solutions or SaaS
Lots of open source projects focusing on various technical components
Intensive experimentation
Examples emerge of enterprisewide rollouts
Innovative control devices and interfaces available
Shift in perception of immersive workspaces, serious games, and virtual worlds
Lack of widely adopted standards resulting in continued lack of interoperability
New and improved interface components and control metaphors still not common
Fuzziness about IP rights for objects people create
Inability to prevent violations of IP rules through technical means
Security

In five to seven years (2013–2015) Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors
Market has thinned out — just a handful of technology vendors identified as leaders
Standards widely adopted
People can access multiple 3-D sites, virtual worlds, serious games, and other applications with a single avatar.
Web3D sites and apps commonplace
Innovative organizations achieve breakthrough competitive advantage
Control metaphor enables seamless usage of Web3D as it becomes a vital business tool
Identity: impersonation, identity theft
Governance: Who rules and polices a virtual world? How do taxes work in a global virtual world? How about employment law and dispute resolution?

Next-generation interface devices Hillcrest Labs Freespace “The Loop” Source: Hillcrest Labs Logitech MX Air Rechargeable Cordless Air Mouse Source: Logitech Source: Seeing Machines Seeing Machines faceLAB

Agenda
What is Web3D?
Web3D drivers
Recommendations

Recommendations (1:2)
Apply Web3D concepts to innovation strategies.
Experiment with Web3D in areas like training and simulation or collaboration.
Conduct internal Web3D workshops and seminars.
Include Web3D in revised Web 2.0 policies.

Recommendations (2:2)
Develop Information Workplace strategies that include Web3D concepts.
Work with infrastructure and operations to upgrade your hardware and the network.
Talk now with Security & Risk professionals to understand their concerns.
Grill the vendors on their interoperability strategy.
Join industry consortia to network and learn more.

Thank you Erica Driver +1 401.592.0170 [email_address] www.forrester.com Blog: http://blogs.forrester.com/information_management/

http://www.vol-de-nuit.net	429
http://mascottus.free.fr	216
http://vbusinessexpo.com	22
http://www.slideshare.net	15
http://www.joycel.com	6
http://daneel-ariantho.blogspot.com	4
http://www.hebiflux.com	3
http://php2.actengo.com	1
http://mascottus.online.fr	1

The emergence of Web3D

by CleverZebra on May 05, 2008

Accessibility

Categories

Tags

Upload Details

Usage Rights

9 Embeds 697

Statistics

The emergence of Web3D — Presentation Transcript