April 25, 2008 The Emergence Of Web3D Erica Driver Principal Analyst Forrester Research

Theme Interactivity + immersion = engagement, and Web3D will deliver in five to seven years time.

Agenda What is Web3D? Web3D drivers We will work very differently in five to seven years. How we think it will all play out Recommendations

What is Web3D?

Web3D drivers

We will work very differently in five to seven years.

How we think it will all play out

Recommendations

Agenda What is Web3D? Web3D drivers We will work very differently in five to seven years. How we think it will all play out Recommendations

What is Web3D?

Web3D drivers

We will work very differently in five to seven years.

How we think it will all play out

Recommendations

A simplified explanation of Web3D Private network Avatar Serious games Virtual worlds Immersive workspaces Source: Second Life (http://secondlife.com/); Virtual Heroes (http://www.virtualheroes.com/) Internet

Forrester’s definition of Web3D System of linked interactive 3-D and 2-D environments People will be able to move among these environments in a seamless, natural way. Will deliver an interactive, immersive experience People will be represented visually by avatars that can move in space and communicate with others. Will integrate with Web 1.0 and Web 2.0 tools and technologies as well as business software apps The next major wave in the Internet’s evolution

System of linked interactive 3-D and 2-D environments

People will be able to move among these environments in a seamless, natural way.

Will deliver an interactive, immersive experience

People will be represented visually by avatars that can move in space and communicate with others.

Will integrate with Web 1.0 and Web 2.0 tools and technologies as well as business software apps

Agenda What is Web3D? Web3D drivers We will work very differently in five to seven years. How we think it will all play out Recommendations

What is Web3D?

Web3D drivers

We will work very differently in five to seven years.

How we think it will all play out

Recommendations

What’s propelling Web3D forward? Relentless focus on innovation Rising expectations due to Technology Populism and Social Computing A changing workforce that requires a technology refresh Investor, vendor, and early adopter activity Med students learn interaction skills just as well in virtual environments as in physical ones

Relentless focus on innovation

Rising expectations due to Technology Populism and Social Computing

A changing workforce that requires a technology refresh

Investor, vendor, and early adopter activity

Med students learn interaction skills just as well in virtual environments as in physical ones

Investor, vendor, and early adopter activity $1.5 billion invested in virtual world companies in five quarters from Q4 2006-Q4 2007 Early adopters: BP, Cisco, IBM, Intel, Michelin

$1.5 billion invested in virtual world companies in five quarters from Q4 2006-Q4 2007

Early adopters: BP, Cisco, IBM, Intel, Michelin

Med students learn interaction skills just as well in virtual environments as in physical ones Source: Parvati Dev, W. LeRoy Heinrichs, Laura Kusumuto, and Patricia Youngblood, “ Virtual Worlds and Team Training,” Anesthesiology Clinics, Volume 25 , Issue 2 Mean student scores Pre-test and post-test student scores

Agenda What is Web3D? Web3D drivers We will work very differently in five to seven years. How we think it will all play out Recommendations

What is Web3D?

Web3D drivers

We will work very differently in five to seven years.

How we think it will all play out

Recommendations

Teach, learn, and practice in a way that feels “real” Source: Virtual Heroes Training medical students and professionals

Use new methods to teach complex concepts Source: Michelin Group enterprise architecture island in Second Life Teaching enterprise architects how to build road maps

Collaborate on information in new ways Source: Gus Rosania, PhD; University of Michigan College of Pharmacy Analyzing complex data for drug discovery process 8 images 24 meters 36 meters 12 images

Interact with colleagues in virtual workspaces Attending a conference “in-world” Source: snapshot taken in a Multiverse session during Life 2.0 conference

Build or import and share 3-D designs and models Source: Flickr, Studio Wikitecture (http://www.flickr.com/photos/studiowikitecture) Studio Wikitecture: collaborative architecture

Manage projects in bottom-up ways Source: Flickr, Claudia Linden (http://www.flickr.com/photos/claudialinden/2106802302/) Studio Wikitecture’s wiki tree

Transform presentations into tours Source: Palomar West island in Second Life (http://www.pph.org/media.aspx?news=196) Hospital of the future: Palomar West

Manage complex real-world systems remotely Source: EOLUS One island in Second Life Implenia facilities operations center

Agenda What is Web3D? Web3D drivers We will work very differently in five to seven years. How we think it will all play out Recommendations

What is Web3D?

Web3D drivers

We will work very differently in five to seven years.

How we think it will all play out

Recommendations

Evolution of the multidimensional Web Immersive Interactive Static Text UI Basic graphical UI Rich, interactive graphical UI 3-D digital experience Hybrid virtual/real-world experience Pre-Web Internet World Wide Web Web 2.0 Web3D WebXD Interactivity Richness of user experience

Today (2008) Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors Dozens of vendors Few virtual worlds used for work open to the public Lack of standards A few virtual worlds support standard 3-D content creation tools. Dearth of easy to use 3-D content creation tools Little integration with business software applications Serious games in use Early-stage experimentation in businesses for team collaboration, meetings, conferences, recruiting Ease of content creation Troublesome interfaces and poor avatar control mechanisms Inability to use content in whichever virtual environment you want Embedded IP protection for copy, transfer, and modify Computers with inadequate graphics cards, processing power Corporate IT security policies may restrict access to Web3D until implications are better understood.

Dozens of vendors

Few virtual worlds used for work open to the public

Lack of standards

A few virtual worlds support standard 3-D content creation tools.

Dearth of easy to use 3-D content creation tools

Little integration with business software applications

Serious games in use

Early-stage experimentation in businesses for team collaboration, meetings, conferences, recruiting

Ease of content creation

Troublesome interfaces and poor avatar control mechanisms

Inability to use content in whichever virtual environment you want

Embedded IP protection for copy, transfer, and modify

Computers with inadequate graphics cards, processing power

Corporate IT security policies may restrict access to Web3D until implications are better understood.

In three to four years (2011–2012) Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors 100s or 1,000s of tech vendors selling Web3D solutions or SaaS Lots of open source projects focusing on various technical components Intensive experimentation Examples emerge of enterprisewide rollouts Innovative control devices and interfaces available Shift in perception of immersive workspaces, serious games, and virtual worlds Lack of widely adopted standards resulting in continued lack of interoperability New and improved interface components and control metaphors still not common Fuzziness about IP rights for objects people create Inability to prevent violations of IP rules through technical means Security

100s or 1,000s of tech vendors selling Web3D solutions or SaaS

Lots of open source projects focusing on various technical components

Intensive experimentation

Examples emerge of enterprisewide rollouts

Innovative control devices and interfaces available

Shift in perception of immersive workspaces, serious games, and virtual worlds

Lack of widely adopted standards resulting in continued lack of interoperability

New and improved interface components and control metaphors still not common

Fuzziness about IP rights for objects people create

Inability to prevent violations of IP rules through technical means

Security

In five to seven years (2013–2015) Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors Market has thinned out — just a handful of technology vendors identified as leaders Standards widely adopted People can access multiple 3-D sites, virtual worlds, serious games, and other applications with a single avatar. Web3D sites and apps commonplace Innovative organizations achieve breakthrough competitive advantage Control metaphor enables seamless usage of Web3D as it becomes a vital business tool Identity: impersonation, identity theft Governance: Who rules and polices a virtual world? How do taxes work in a global virtual world? How about employment law and dispute resolution?

Market has thinned out — just a handful of technology vendors identified as leaders

Standards widely adopted

People can access multiple 3-D sites, virtual worlds, serious games, and other applications with a single avatar.

Web3D sites and apps commonplace

Innovative organizations achieve breakthrough competitive advantage

Control metaphor enables seamless usage of Web3D as it becomes a vital business tool

Identity: impersonation, identity theft

Governance: Who rules and polices a virtual world? How do taxes work in a global virtual world? How about employment law and dispute resolution?

Next-generation interface devices Hillcrest Labs Freespace “The Loop” Source: Hillcrest Labs Logitech MX Air Rechargeable Cordless Air Mouse Source: Logitech Source: Seeing Machines Seeing Machines faceLAB

Agenda What is Web3D? Web3D drivers We will work very differently in five to seven years. How we think it will all play out Recommendations

What is Web3D?

Web3D drivers

We will work very differently in five to seven years.

How we think it will all play out

Recommendations

Recommendations (1:2) Apply Web3D concepts to innovation strategies. Experiment with Web3D in areas like training and simulation or collaboration. Conduct internal Web3D workshops and seminars. Include Web3D in revised Web 2.0 policies.

Apply Web3D concepts to innovation strategies.

Experiment with Web3D in areas like training and simulation or collaboration.

Conduct internal Web3D workshops and seminars.

Include Web3D in revised Web 2.0 policies.

Recommendations (2:2) Develop Information Workplace strategies that include Web3D concepts. Work with infrastructure and operations to upgrade your hardware and the network. Talk now with Security & Risk professionals to understand their concerns. Grill the vendors on their interoperability strategy. Join industry consortia to network and learn more.

Develop Information Workplace strategies that include Web3D concepts.

Work with infrastructure and operations to upgrade your hardware and the network.

Talk now with Security & Risk professionals to understand their concerns.

Grill the vendors on their interoperability strategy.

Join industry consortia to network and learn more.

Thank you Erica Driver +1 401.592.0170 [email_address] www.forrester.com Blog: http://blogs.forrester.com/information_management/