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The emergence of Web3D

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Erica Driver presents at the vBusiness Expo

Erica Driver presents at the vBusiness Expo

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  • 1. April 25, 2008 The Emergence Of Web3D Erica Driver Principal Analyst Forrester Research
  • 2. Theme Interactivity + immersion = engagement, and Web3D will deliver in five to seven years time.
  • 3. Agenda
    • What is Web3D?
    • Web3D drivers
    • We will work very differently in five to seven years.
    • How we think it will all play out
    • Recommendations
  • 4. Agenda
    • What is Web3D?
    • Web3D drivers
    • We will work very differently in five to seven years.
    • How we think it will all play out
    • Recommendations
  • 5. A simplified explanation of Web3D Private network Avatar Serious games Virtual worlds Immersive workspaces Source: Second Life (http://secondlife.com/); Virtual Heroes (http://www.virtualheroes.com/) Internet
  • 6. Forrester’s definition of Web3D
    • System of linked interactive 3-D and 2-D environments
    • People will be able to move among these environments in a seamless, natural way.
    • Will deliver an interactive, immersive experience
    • People will be represented visually by avatars that can move in space and communicate with others.
    • Will integrate with Web 1.0 and Web 2.0 tools and technologies as well as business software apps
    The next major wave in the Internet’s evolution
  • 7. Agenda
    • What is Web3D?
    • Web3D drivers
    • We will work very differently in five to seven years.
    • How we think it will all play out
    • Recommendations
  • 8. What’s propelling Web3D forward?
    • Relentless focus on innovation
    • Rising expectations due to Technology Populism and Social Computing
    • A changing workforce that requires a technology refresh
    • Investor, vendor, and early adopter activity
    • Med students learn interaction skills just as well in virtual environments as in physical ones
  • 9. Investor, vendor, and early adopter activity
    • $1.5 billion invested in virtual world companies in five quarters from Q4 2006-Q4 2007
    • Early adopters: BP, Cisco, IBM, Intel, Michelin
  • 10. Med students learn interaction skills just as well in virtual environments as in physical ones Source: Parvati Dev, W. LeRoy Heinrichs, Laura Kusumuto, and Patricia Youngblood, “ Virtual Worlds and Team Training,” Anesthesiology Clinics, Volume 25 , Issue 2 Mean student scores Pre-test and post-test student scores
  • 11. Agenda
    • What is Web3D?
    • Web3D drivers
    • We will work very differently in five to seven years.
    • How we think it will all play out
    • Recommendations
  • 12. Teach, learn, and practice in a way that feels “real” Source: Virtual Heroes Training medical students and professionals
  • 13. Use new methods to teach complex concepts Source: Michelin Group enterprise architecture island in Second Life Teaching enterprise architects how to build road maps
  • 14. Collaborate on information in new ways Source: Gus Rosania, PhD; University of Michigan College of Pharmacy Analyzing complex data for drug discovery process 8 images 24 meters 36 meters 12 images
  • 15. Interact with colleagues in virtual workspaces Attending a conference “in-world” Source: snapshot taken in a Multiverse session during Life 2.0 conference
  • 16. Build or import and share 3-D designs and models Source: Flickr, Studio Wikitecture (http://www.flickr.com/photos/studiowikitecture) Studio Wikitecture: collaborative architecture
  • 17. Manage projects in bottom-up ways Source: Flickr, Claudia Linden (http://www.flickr.com/photos/claudialinden/2106802302/) Studio Wikitecture’s wiki tree
  • 18. Transform presentations into tours Source: Palomar West island in Second Life (http://www.pph.org/media.aspx?news=196) Hospital of the future: Palomar West
  • 19. Manage complex real-world systems remotely Source: EOLUS One island in Second Life Implenia facilities operations center
  • 20. Agenda
    • What is Web3D?
    • Web3D drivers
    • We will work very differently in five to seven years.
    • How we think it will all play out
    • Recommendations
  • 21. Evolution of the multidimensional Web Immersive Interactive Static Text UI Basic graphical UI Rich, interactive graphical UI 3-D digital experience Hybrid virtual/real-world experience Pre-Web Internet World Wide Web Web 2.0 Web3D WebXD Interactivity Richness of user experience
  • 22. Today (2008) Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors
    • Dozens of vendors
    • Few virtual worlds used for work open to the public
    • Lack of standards
    • A few virtual worlds support standard 3-D content creation tools.
    • Dearth of easy to use 3-D content creation tools
    • Little integration with business software applications
    • Serious games in use
    • Early-stage experimentation in businesses for team collaboration, meetings, conferences, recruiting
    • Ease of content creation
    • Troublesome interfaces and poor avatar control mechanisms
    • Inability to use content in whichever virtual environment you want
    • Embedded IP protection for copy, transfer, and modify
    • Computers with inadequate graphics cards, processing power
    • Corporate IT security policies may restrict access to Web3D until implications are better understood.
  • 23. In three to four years (2011–2012) Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors
    • 100s or 1,000s of tech vendors selling Web3D solutions or SaaS
    • Lots of open source projects focusing on various technical components
    • Intensive experimentation
    • Examples emerge of enterprisewide rollouts
    • Innovative control devices and interfaces available
    • Shift in perception of immersive workspaces, serious games, and virtual worlds
    • Lack of widely adopted standards resulting in continued lack of interoperability
    • New and improved interface components and control metaphors still not common
    • Fuzziness about IP rights for objects people create
    • Inability to prevent violations of IP rules through technical means
    • Security
  • 24. In five to seven years (2013–2015) Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors
    • Market has thinned out — just a handful of technology vendors identified as leaders
    • Standards widely adopted
    • People can access multiple 3-D sites, virtual worlds, serious games, and other applications with a single avatar.
    • Web3D sites and apps commonplace
    • Innovative organizations achieve breakthrough competitive advantage
    • Control metaphor enables seamless usage of Web3D as it becomes a vital business tool
    • Identity: impersonation, identity theft
    • Governance: Who rules and polices a virtual world? How do taxes work in a global virtual world? How about employment law and dispute resolution?
  • 25. Next-generation interface devices Hillcrest Labs Freespace “The Loop” Source: Hillcrest Labs Logitech MX Air Rechargeable Cordless Air Mouse Source: Logitech Source: Seeing Machines Seeing Machines faceLAB
  • 26. Agenda
    • What is Web3D?
    • Web3D drivers
    • We will work very differently in five to seven years.
    • How we think it will all play out
    • Recommendations
  • 27. Recommendations (1:2)
    • Apply Web3D concepts to innovation strategies.
    • Experiment with Web3D in areas like training and simulation or collaboration.
    • Conduct internal Web3D workshops and seminars.
    • Include Web3D in revised Web 2.0 policies.
  • 28. Recommendations (2:2)
    • Develop Information Workplace strategies that include Web3D concepts.
    • Work with infrastructure and operations to upgrade your hardware and the network.
    • Talk now with Security & Risk professionals to understand their concerns.
    • Grill the vendors on their interoperability strategy.
    • Join industry consortia to network and learn more.
  • 29. Thank you Erica Driver +1 401.592.0170 [email_address] www.forrester.com Blog: http://blogs.forrester.com/information_management/

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