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03_CSIL_AlessandraTracogna

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CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies, Milano …

CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies, Milano
Ms. Alessandra Tracogna
Furniture outlook: Global trends and forecast for the furniture sector

Published in: Business, Travel

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  • 1. CSIL Furniture Outlook: Alessandra Tracogna Director Global trends d forecasts f th Gl b l t d and f t for the COUNTRY ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS UNIT furniture sectorZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 2. World Furniture Production, 2001-2010. Current US$ billionAn increasing role of emerging producers 400 300 Middle/Low income countries 200 High income 100 countries 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010ZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 3. World Furniture Production, 2000-2010. Current US$ millionA changing geography on a global scale 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 , Middle East  and Africa 250,000 South America North America 200,000 200 000 Europe (including Russia) Asia and Pacific 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010ZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 4. Furniture ProductionF it P d ti , 2000-2010. Current US$ millionChina, India, Poland and Brazil among the fast growing manufacturing countries 140,000 140 000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0ZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 5. Furniture P d ti iF it Production in EU, 2010. Current US$ millionZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 6. Furniture P d ti iF it Production in EU, 2000-2010. % breakdown by areaEU Integration and the increasing role of Central Eastern European countries 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Central Eastern Europe Western Europe 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010ZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 7. World Trade of Furniture, 2000-2011. Current US$ billion 120 118 113 110 107 100 94 96 85 78 80 66 60 56 52 51 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* * PreliminaryZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 8. Furniture Imports, 2001 2011 F it I t 2001-2011 The major furniture importing countries. US$ billion 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011* 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 United States Germany France United Kingdom * Preliminary Sources: UN, Eurostat, CSILZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 9. Furniture Exports, 2001-2011 The major furniture exporting countries. US$ billion 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 China Italy Germany Poland * Preliminary Sources: UN, Eurostat, CSILZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 10. Furniture production, the leading manufacturing countries Very large amount of production, Very large amount of production, low exports/ production ratio high exports/ production ratio United States China Italy Germany Large amount of production, Large amount of production, low exports/ production ratio high exports/ production ratio India I di Japan J France B il F Brazil Canada Poland Very large amount of production: >20000 US$ million; high export/production ratio:>25%ZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 11. World Furniture Consumption.W ld F it C ti Breakdown by geographical area (%)Consumers are changing 2000 2010 South South Asia and Central America Asia and Central America Pacific e ca ac c Eastern Russia 3% Pacific Eastern Russia 3% 22% Europe 2% 40% Europe 1% 4% 3% North America Western 21% Europe North 32% Middle Western America East and Europe 37% Africa 27% Middle East 3% and Africa 2%ZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 12. PerP capita f it consumption. it furniture ti 2000=100Per capita furniture consumption in emerging countries is low, but increasing fast 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Middle and low income High incomeZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 13. Statistics are the evidence of a structural change affecting thefurniture sectorThe structural change statred years ago and still under way is due to many factors.Among them:•Changing in comparative advantages for furniture production which make less profitableproducing iin advanced economies d i d d i•Sustained g o t in t e de a d o furniture in e e g g markets a d subseque t Susta ed growth the demand of u tu e emerging a ets and subsequentdevelopment of the local industry•Investments in new plants especially designed and built for e ports (eg China Vietnam In estments ne especiall b ilt exports (eg. China, Vietnam,Poland)•Operations of large multinationals sourcing on a global scale (eg. IKEA)ZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 14. Evolution of World GDP, 2010-2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 World 5.2 52 3.8 38 3.3 33 3.9 39 Advanced economies 3.2 1.6 1.2 1.9 USA 3.0 30 1.8 18 1.8 18 2.2 22 Euro Area 1.9 1.6 -0.5 0.8 Emerging and D E i d Developing E l i Economies i 7.3 73 6.2 62 5.4 54 5.9 59 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, January 2012ZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 15. World Trade of Furniture, 2000-2012. Current US$ billion120 118 113 116 110 107100 94 96 85 78 80 66 60 56 52 51 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012** * Preliminary **ForecastZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 16. Furniture F it consumption b geographical region 2012 ti by hi l i yearly changes in real terms. Forecast as of November 2011 Europe North AmericaMiddle East and Africa South America Asia and Pacific World -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%ZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL
  • 17. Furniture Consumption forecasts 2012 forecasts, Real consumption growth>3% RUSSIA +4%ARGENTINA +4%BRAZIL +4%CHILE +5%COLOMBIA +5% CHINA +8% PHILIPPINES +4% ALGERIA +4% INDIA +7% SAUDI ARABIA +4% INDONESIA +4% BAHRAIN +4% KAZAKHSTAN +4% KUWAIT +5% MALAYSIA +5% QATAR +7% THAILAND +4% SOUTH AFRICA +4% VIETNAM +5%ZOW, Bad Salzuflen, February 8 2012 © Copyright CSIL