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Civic Exchange - 2009 The Air We Breathe Conference - Science to Policy - presented by Ross Anderson (St George's, University of London)
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Civic Exchange - 2009 The Air We Breathe Conference - Science to Policy - presented by Ross Anderson (St George's, University of London)

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Civic Exchange 2009 The Air We Breathe Conference - Experts Symposium 9 January 2009 …

Civic Exchange 2009 The Air We Breathe Conference - Experts Symposium 9 January 2009

Science to Policy
presented by Ross Anderson (St George's, University of London)

http://air.dialogue.org.hk


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  • 1. Science to policy Experts Symposium on Air quality Hong Kong 10th January 2009 Ross Anderson St George’s, University of London
  • 2. From science to policy Various paradigms: NRC 1983, WHO 2000 1. Hazard identification 2. Exposure-response 3. Health impact assessment for specified exposure scenarios (risk characterization) 4. Cost-benefit and cost effectiveness 5. Development of air quality strategy 6. Implementation of appropriate measures 7. Evaluation of benefits (“accountability”)
  • 3. Updates of WHO guidelines Year PM measure Guideline Notes Annual mean µg/m3 1970s SPM 60-90 Threshold (Lowest observed level for health effects ~ 150 + Safety factor of 2) 1987 Black Smoke 50 Threshold (linked to SO2, also 50) 2000 PM10 Dose-response No threshold 2006 PM10 20 No threshold 2006 PM2.5 10 No threshold. 3 PM10 ~ 0.5 x SPM; 2 x BS; 1.3 x PM2.5
  • 4. Long term exposure to PM and risk of mortality in ACS cohort (~ 0.5 million people in a large number of US cities followed for 16 years) Adapted from Pope et al 2002 4
  • 5. WHO AQG: Global update 2005 Annual mean PM10 PM2.5 Basis for the selected level level (µg/m3) (µg/m3) Interim target-1 70 35 Levels associated with about (IT-1) 15% higher long-term mortality than at AQG Interim target-2 50 25 Risk of premature mortality (IT-2) decreased by approximately 6% compared to IT1 Interim target-3 30 15 Mortality risk reduced by (IT-3) approximately 6% compared to IT2 levels. Air quality 20 10 Lowest levels at which total, guideline CP and LCA mortality have (AQG) been shown to increase (Pope et al., 2002). The use of PM2.5 guideline is preferred.
  • 6. Passing
interim
targets
on
the
way
towards
AQG Effect Exposure AQG IT-2 IT-1
  • 7. Implications of no threshold Concentration Response
  • 8. Implementation of exposure reduction concept for PM2.5 in the UK Health based, and quantified by cost-benefit analysis 1. 15% reduction in average annual urban background concentrations 2010 - 2020 2. Backstop objective (concentration cap) of 25µ/m3 applicable to all areas. To provide minimum protection. 8 The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and N Ireland, 2008