Bob Hall - Presentation Slides from 8th ILLC December 2012
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    Bob Hall - Presentation Slides from 8th ILLC December 2012 Bob Hall - Presentation Slides from 8th ILLC December 2012 Presentation Transcript

    • 1st Australian Task Force in Vietnam: Lessons from a counterinsurgency campaign Military Operations Analysis Team - Australian Centre for the Study of Armed Conflict and SocietyBob Hall,Andrew Ross,Satish Chand,Amy Griffin,Derrill de Heer; andBarry Smith
    • Counterinsurgency involves ...... the intersection of military action (combat and non-combat), politics, economics and social reform to• build security,• build political legitimacy,• build the economy and personal wealth,• remove social friction.None of this is new. It was done in Vietnam.There is a vast amount of (publicly available) data in theVietnam records ... and in the insurgent’s histories.
    • DatabasesVietnam Combat Database •4500 1ATF combat incidents x 30 bits of infoVietnam Intelligence Database •36,000 intelligence incidents x 6 bits of infoVietnam Village Database •150 hamlets x 80 bits of infoVietnam Civic Action Projects Database •Currently 430 projects x 25 bits of info and growing
    • ... and more Databases under constructionPhuoc Tuy Economy Database•PSA and Australian Embassy reportsPolitical Events Database•Australian and US Embassy filesSocial Development Database•PSA and Australian Embassy reports•Pacification Attitude Analysis System reports
    • Using these databases we apply...• Statistical techniques,• Spatial analysis,• Temporal analysis ...
    • 1ATF contacts and associated casualties 900 1ATF arrives in Phuoc Tuy, May ’66. Battle of Long Tan,Number of contacts and casualties 800 700 Aug ‘66 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Mar-63 Mar-64 Mar-65 Mar-66 Mar-67 Dec-62 Dec-63 Dec-64 Dec-65 Dec-66 Jun-62 Sep-62 Jun-63 Sep-63 Jun-64 Sep-64 Jun-65 Sep-65 Jun-66 Sep-66 Jun-67 Quarter year Number of contacts 1ATF casualties Enemy Casualties
    • Number of contacts and casualties 0 100 200 300 400 600 700 800 900 500 Jun-62 Sep-62 Dec-62 Mar-63 Jun-63 Sep-63 Dec-63Number of contacts Mar-64 Jun-64 Sep-64 Dec-64 Mar-65 Tet Offensive, Jan/Feb 19681ATF casualties Quarter year Jun-65 Sep-65 Dec-65 Mar-66 1ATF contacts and associated casualties Jun-66Enemy Casualties Sep-66 Dec-66 Mar-67 Jun-67
    • Number of contacts and casualties 0 100 200 300 400 600 700 800 900 500 Jun-62 Sep-62 Dec-62 Mar-63 Jun-63 Sep-63 Dec-63Number of contacts Mar-64 Jun-64 Sep-64 Dec-64 Mar-651ATF casualties Quarter year Jun-65 Sep-65 Dec-65 Mar-66 1ATF contacts and associated casualties Mid-1969 ‘high point’ Jun-66Enemy Casualties Sep-66 Dec-66 Mar-67 Jun-67
    • Number of contacts 50 0 100 150 200 250 300 Dec-63 Mar-64 Jan ‘68 Jun-64 Sep-64 Dec-64 Mar-65Enemy Jun-651ATF Sep-65 Dec-65 Quarter year Mar-66 Who initiates contact? Jun-66Province Forces Sep-66 Dec-66 Mar-67 Jun-67 Sep-67
    • Who initiates contact? 300 1ATF begins training 250 Province Forces, Apr ‘69Number of contacts 200 150 100 50 0 Mar-64 Mar-65 Mar-66 Mar-67 Dec-63 Sep-64 Dec-64 Sep-65 Dec-65 Jun-66 Sep-66 Dec-66 Sep-67 Jun-64 Jun-65 Jun-67 Quarter year Enemy 1ATF Province Forces
    • Phuoc TuyMajor outlyingvillagesMain populationand riceproductioncentre
    • Phuoc Tuy May Tao Hat Dich Nui Dinh, Nui Thi Vai Long Hais (Minh Dam Secret Zone)
    • Bunker systems and food captured by 1ATF 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Bunkersystems 91 299 283 455 402 275CapturedAverageweight of food 4414 2193 624 157 103 80captured (lbs)
    • The VC turn to alternative sources of food 1969 1970 1971VC food scrounging incidents 6 91 247VC tax collection incidents 1 88 249
    • 1ATF patrol and ambush contactswithin 2.5km of a village 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Patrol and 93 60 123 113 132 46ambushcontacts
    • Number of contacts and casualties 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 Jun-62 Sep-62 Dec-62 Mar-63 Jun-63 Sep-63 Dec-63Number of contacts Mar-64 Jun-64 Sep-64 Dec-64 Mar-651ATF casualties Quarter year Jun-65 Sep-65 Dec-65 Mar-66 1ATF contacts and associated casualties Jun-66Enemy Casualties Sep-66 Dec-66 operations Mar-67 Decline in combat Jun-67
    • Rise of VC non-combat/political action 1969 1970 1971VC assassinations 8 17 24VC abductions 211 36 86VC propaganda meetings with 19 134 223civilians
    • Time sequence:All 1ATF ambushes by time of day
    • Snapshots: Social development in Phuoc Tuy Province 1966 End of 1971Population 102,998 124,844Radios: 8,451 19,178Televisions: 57 1,324Elementary school students 16,913 23,630Secondary school students 2,316 5,059Hospital beds 40 153
    • Snapshots: Economic development, Phuoc Tuy 1966 End of 1971Rice production (mt) 18,000 18,250Salt production (mt) 49,670 64,800Sea food production (mt) 12,259 38,000Timber production (m3) 2,667 7,618Registered trucks 15 43Registered motorcycles 0 6,206
    • Snapshots: Political instability- Republic of VietnamPresident/Premier DurationNgo Dinh Diem (murdered in 1963 coup) 1954-63General Duong Van Minh 86 daysGeneral Nguyen Khanh 260 daysTran Van Huong 84 daysNguyen Xuan Oanh 19 daysPhan Huy Quat 112 daysNguyen Cao Ky/Nguyen Van Thieu 1965 ....
    • Snapshots: Political legitimacy? National Phuoc Tuy Result turnout turnoutNational Constituent 81% 89.4% New DemocraticAssembly Election, Constitution and11 Sep 66 Electoral Laws1967 Presidential 83% ? A ‘17-horse’ race.Election, 3 Sep 67 Thieu wins with 34% of votes1971 Presidential 87.9% 96.1% A ‘one-horse’Election, 3 Oct 71 race. Thieu wins with 94.3% of votes
    • Discussion Military Operations Analysis Team - Australian Centre for the Study of Armed Conflict and SocietyContact:Dr Bob HallPhone: 02 6268 8848Mobile: 0439 887 580Email: b.hall@adfa.edu.au
    • Data …What data is captured?How is it captured, recorded and used?Analysis …What analysis is done?Who does it?For what purpose?Is it aimed at deriving short term or long term lessons?
    • Vietnam - crop hectares for TN and paddy rice (1000 hectares) 3000 2500 2000Hectares 1500 Paddy TN rice Paddy plus TN rice 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Years – 1962 - 1973
    • Total value - agricultural imports and exports (million VN$) 60000 50000 40000Millions VN$ 30000 Total value of agricultural imports Total value of agricultural exports 20000 10000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Years 1968 - 1973
    • Vietnam - Estimated prices received by farmers, 1965-1972 (VN$ per kg) 700 600 500 Paddy 400VN$ per Kg Corn Peanuts Vegetables 300 Pigs Chicken 200 Fishery products 100 0 Year
    • Retail price of rice - Baria market 80 70 60 50Price $VN 40 Rice, long grain, good smelling, high quality, 15% brokens 1 kg Rice, medium grain, medium quality, 30 25% brokens 1 kg 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Fortnightly price samples - 15 Jan to 30 Sep 71
    • Average daily wages - Southern Vietnam 1600 1400 1200 1000 Average daily wages - Southern Vietnam Labourer under 18 years MalePiastre 800 Labourer under 18 years Female Labourer 18 years and over Male Labourer 18 years and over Female 600 Skilled worker Male Skilled worker Female 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Years 1965 - 1973