China Sets Sail forNew Leadership:2013 ReformsMay 2013Mansfield MokFund ManagerNew Capital China Equity FundFor Qualified and Accredited Investors Only
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China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 ReformsSpecialist Strategies for Thoughtful InvestorsEFGAM is an international advisor delivering leadinginvestment solutions for clients worldwide. With over $8billion in assets under management, we have over 100investment professionals located around the world.Our range of funds span a broad spectrum of investmentoptions with circa $2 billion in assets.We offer a wide range of investment solutions reflectingthe varied needs and preferences of our clients.Our clients can access our investment solutions through avariety of product structures, including individual andinstitutional separate accounts, mutual funds and otherpooled investment vehicles.Figures as at end February 20133
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms4Economic IndicatorChina power consumption growth slowed down to 5.5% yoy in 2012 (11.9% in 2011) Secondary Industry (Light and Heavy industries) saw significant slow down Both household and service industries are robust, reflecting a change in growth driver in Chinese economyIs Power Consumption a good proxy to China economic growth?China Power Consumption by Industry 2012 yoy Growth % Share of Total (%)Primary Industry 0.0% 2%Secondary Industry 3.9% 74%Tertiary Industry 11.5% 11%Household 10.7% 13%Source: Deutsche Bank
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms5Policy Statements From LeadersPresident Hu’s Opening Speech on 8 November 2012: No change in direction of macro-economic policies Build a moderately prosperous society by 2020 Double 2010 GDP and per capita income for both urban and rural residents by 2020 Deepen reform of financial system Development of next generation information infrastructureTop priority: Stimulate domestic consumption and implement banking reformChina GDP per Capita * 2010 2020**Urban Household Rmb 21,033 (USD 3,183) Rmb 42,066 (USD 7,011)Rural Household Rmb 8,119 (USD 1,229) Rmb 16,238 (USD 2,706)Source: CEIS, NomuraNote: ** 2020 GDP per capita assumption: GDP per capita double in RMB terms and 6 RMB per USD
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms6Reforms Create OpportunitiesMost likely reforms in the coming 3-4 yearsMost likely reforms Possible reforms Least likely reformsResource pricing reform Personal income tax reform SOE reformInterest rate liberalisation Hukou reform Property taxCapital account liberalisation Rural land reform Central-local relationsGreater exchange rate flexibility Budget transparencyVAT reform De-monopolisationResource/environmental tax reform Pension reformIncrease in social spending Relaxing one-child policySource: Deutsche Bank
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms7Banking Sector TrendNon traditional loan credit is rising; Non bank financials will become a fast growing sector.Breakdown of Total Credit (%) CAGRs (%)2009 2012 2009-2012Traditional Loan 74.4 67.3 16.5Social Financing (defined by PBOC) 21.4 28.0 31.7Entrusted Loans 6.2 7.0 25.4Trust Loans & others 2.1 3.1 37.2Banker Acceptance Bills 5.6 7.6 33.6Corporate Bonds 5.5 7.9 35.7Other Non Bank Financing 4.2 4.7 25.6Total Credit 100 100 20.5Total Credit ex-RMB Loan 30.1 37.0 29.0Source: PBOC, CBRC, CEIC, Bernstein
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms8Chinese Labour Market TrendSlow down in growth of “working age” populationSource: IMF
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms9Economic Activities: Moving West and CentralChina: Real GDP growth of 9.4% in 2011Source: National Bureau of Statistics China Database2012 Real GDPGrowthChina 7.8%Beijing 7.7%Shanghai 7.5%Zhejiang 8.0%Guangdong 10.2%Guizhou 13.6%Chongqing 13.6%Sichuan 12.6%InnerMongolia11.7%
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms10China Selects The “Regional Expansion Model”Source: McKinsey Global Institute
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms11Consumer Demand Will Come In WavesVariation in income level across China: Tier 2 markets are experiencing strong growth now.Source: China Statistical Year Book, Deutsche Bank
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms12Global Financial Crisis: An Opportunity For ChinaSource: Morgan StanleyThe current financial crisis presents an opportunity for China– Low interest rates will prevail and surplus liquidity will look for areas with strong growth potential– Chinese central government has healthy balance sheet and stronger economic growth vs. G3– Policy reforms taking place:● Economic driver: domestic consumption will take the lead supported by the increase in minimum wage● Pricing reform: facilitated by lower commodity prices and low inflation rate● Financial System ReformReal GDP Growth Outlook-20246810China Japan US Euro World2011 2012E 2013F*Note: Index performance from 1 Jan 2011 to 30 Apr 2013US( SPX Index); Japan (NKY Index); Euro (SX5E Index); China (MXCN Index)CountriesCurrentAccountFiscalDeficitsGross PublicDebtTotal Return(USD)*US -2.9 5.3 76 33.5%Japan 0.8 10.9 247 19.3%Euro area 2.0 2.5 92 6.7%China 2.9 2.0 52 -2.8%All figures are CS estimates and represented as % of 2013 GDP
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms13Sentiments Shifting to a Soft Landing Scenario► Concern about property crash in China– Property selling prices have stabilised– Loan-to-value ratio of 60-65% should providecushion to the banking system► Fear of banking crisis in China– LGFV loan• Refinanced by the fast growing corporatebond market– Shadow banking defaults• No new cases reported– Surge in NPL• Reported NPL is still below 1% and loangrowth remains healthy at 15%► Worries of a hard landing– The change of Chinese demographics• China has a slow down in workingpopulationThe bear arguments look overstated and there are some signs of shifting sentiment. Signs of stability in the equity market:– There are some early signs of stabilisation• GDP growth stabilises at 7.4% in 3Q and7.9% in 4Q 2012• China M2 growth bottomed at 13.5% inAug 2012– Economists on the bear camp are changing theirtone after the improving economic numbers• Some brokers are making a “Buy” call onChina. e.g. Credit Suisse in Nov 2012• Continuous inflows into Asian markets
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms14China Stock Market: An Attractive Asset Class► Attractive valuation– Valuations at historically low level in both P/Band P/E terms► Under-owned asset class– APAC hedge fund managers are still bearishon China as reported by Credit Suisse PrimeServices data► Removal of political uncertainties► Structural change in industries– Creates opportunities to new players andindustries who are at the early stage of their“S-Curve”• e.g. Banking and consumer sectorsMSCI China – 12 month Fwd P/E(X)*Source: * Nomura Securities ** Credit SuisseNet exposure Change Since Sept 2012 to Mar 2013** (%pt)-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%ChinaHongKongTaiwanMalaysiaIndiaNewZealandIndonesiaSingaporeKoreaPhilippinesAustraliaJapanNet ex posure change (%)
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms15Market Moving Events in Early 2013► Smooth transition of Chinese Leadership in March► Aggressive Bank Of Japan Quantitative Easing programSource: Morgan StanleyData as of 24 April 2013
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms16Investment PhilosophyZone A: Re-Rating (Accumulate) Company gradually increases its market share andgains pricing power Investors are sceptical about the growth potential of thecompany and put in a low valuation.– e.g. Insurance companies in the current cycleare trading at historic low New BusinessMultiple despite the low penetration rate ofinsurance productZone B: De-Rating (Reduce) Company sees declining growth– Chinese oil companies saw a sharp decline inproduction growth over the years. Theybecame utilities and experienced P/EcontractionIdentify stocks with “Re-rating Potential”
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms17Economic Growth vs Index PerformanceIndex performance fell behind GDP growth during 2007-2012 and 2010-2012Source: BloombergChina Nominal GDPcompound annual Growth p.a.MSCI China Index Performancecompound annual return p.a.3 Years to 6 Years to 3 Years to 6 Years to2006 +16.8 +14.6 +24.5 +24.02007 +18.5 +15.9 +43.7 +28.32012 +15.0 +15.7 -4.0 -0.6Note: * GDP growth and performance number are in CNY
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms18Top 10 MSCI China Index ComponentsWeighting of mature companies risingMSCI China Dec 2012 % Outlook and ViewChina Mobile 9.91 Mature; Zone BCCB – H 8.17 De-rating due to interest rate deregulationICBC – H 6.52 De-rating due to interest rate deregulationCNOOC 5.45 Mature; Zone BBOC – H 4.74 De-rating due to interest rate deregulationTencent 4.60Petrochina – H 4.22 Mature; Zone BChina Life Insurance 3.43China Petroleum & Chemical 2.68 Mature; Zone BPing An Insurance 2.2280% of top 10 Index component are mature companies and may not catch up with the economic growth of ChinaSource: Nomura
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms19China’s Investment Outlook► Sustainable, above-average economic growth– Among the major economies, China offers attractive GDP growth of 7% pa backed by fiscal stimulus– China is changing its economic model to one that is based on self-sustainable domestic consumption• Supported by healthy demographics and high saving rates► Global interest rate to stay low for a longer period of time– The US Federal Reserve expects fed fund rate to stay below 0.25% until mid 2015– In view of lacklustre global economy and low inflationary pressure, PBOC will continue the monetary easing policy► Attractive valuation– Market is trading at historical low levels in both P/B and P/E terms► Change of leadership– Removal of political uncertainties► Risks– Geo-political uncertainty
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms20Current Investment Themes Domestic Consumption– Products with low penetration rates: e.g. autos, Smartphones, insurance products– Consumer companies with pricing power and good distribution networks– Consumer staples benefit from rising rural consumption RMB Internationalisation– Stronger pipeline for RMB offshore products– Banking reform• Deregulation of China’s interest rate policy Gradual breakdown of old monopoly– Structural de-rating of some State Owned Enterprises e.g. Big policy banks Internet Boom– Growing importance of E-commerce and on-line shopping– Rising CAPEX for telecom operators
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms21Industry TrendImportant Quotes– China Construction Bank 2013 Annual Results page 62:“……market competition tends to be more intensive as both non-bank financial and quasi-bankinstitutions intervene in banking businesses including wealth management, payment and settlement…..”– China Banking Regulatory Commission CBRC warns of risks from industries including property,solar Industry, machinery, steel, wind power and PV.– China Mobile: will spend Rmb 41bn to build 200+ TD-LTE base stations to cover 100 major cities.– Jack Ma, Chairman of Alibaba Group at Credit Suisse AIC 2013:“…e-commerce in the US is a dessert. It’s an addition to their main business, because in the US theinfrastructure of doing business is so good. But in China, because the infrastructure of commerce isbad, e-commerce becomes the main course….”
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms22Positioning & Outlook Overweight– Information technology• Telecom equipment provider– Autos and consumer staples Underweight– Chinese banks but overweight special lenders, insurance and HK financials– Telecom operators because of rising expenses due to handset subsidy– Energy. Prefer refineries as they are beneficiaries of China’s pricing reform.– Zero weighting in materials and capital goods Strategy– Accumulate growth stocks on price consolidation
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms23Sector WeightingAs at 31 March 2013
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms24Top 10 HoldingsAs at 30 April 2013Holding % Nature of BusinessNew China Life – H Share 4.94 One of the largest life insurance companies in ChinaWilmar International 4.51 A plantation conglomerate which will distribute corn flakes in ChinaChongqing Rural Commercial Bank 4.18 A restructured commercial bankWharf Holdings 4.15 A big landlord in ChinaChina Everbright Ltd 4.11 A listed China Fund managerTecent Holdings 4.10 The China internet company having a “Facebook” business modelHK Exchanges & Clearing 3.91 A platform to distribute RMB financial productsShenzhen Int’l 3.82 RMB Internationalization PlayFar East Horizon 3.78 A financial leasing company in ChinaDah Chong Hong 3.58 A car distributor and services company
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms25New Capital China Equity Fund The New Capital China Equity Fund invests in equitiesof public companies with significant business activitiesin the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong. Theequities are quoted securities listed or traded on stockexchanges worldwide The investment strategy adopts a fundamental stock-picking approach by investing in small, medium andlarge companies which have re-rating potential Stock selection is driven by bottom-up analysis ofearnings outlook, profitability trend, balance sheetstrength and management quality of a company The investment horizon of the strategy is between oneto three years, allowing the hidden potential of thecompanies to be reflected in the share price over timeto achieve capital appreciationInvestment objective & strategy.Sub-Fund Name New Capital China Equity FundInvestment StyleEquities Long Only, with options and futures forprotectionMarkets China and Hong Kong primarily (all caps)Benchmark MSCI China IndexBase Currency USDMax Cash No cash limit and no leverageFund EntityUCITS IV – New Capital UCIT FUND PLCRegulated by the Central Bank of IrelandBase Fee 1.75% (Ordinary) 0.90% (Institutional)Liquidity Daily dealing
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 ReformsPeer Group Performance ComparisonNew Capital China Equity Fund outperformed peers and benchmark since inception (20/8/2012)Source: Bloomberg as at 26 April 201326
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 ReformsStock Example: Wharf Holdings (4 HK Equity)A big landlord in China. Wharf is a major beneficiary of rising Chinesetourism through its retail property portfolios inHong Kong which provides good cash flow forbuilding its empire in China Rental income from China could jump at least4x after the completion of 2.1m sqmInternational Finance Centres in five secondtier cities Wharf stands out from its Chinese propertypeers because of its prudent managementand healthy balance sheet32.0034.0036.0038.0040.0042.0044.0046.0048.0050.0052.0054.0056.0058.0060.0062.0064.0066.0068.0070.0072.00Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13DatePriceSource: Bloomberg27
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms28An Experienced Investment TeamA dedicated, locally-based team supported globally.Years denote investment experience in industry.
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms29Appendix
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms3030Fund ManagerAn award winning fund manager: the success of a “bottom-up re-rating” strategy● Mansfield Mok has over 22 years of investment experience● During his five year tenure at GAM, the $1.5 billion GAM Star China Equity Fund, co-managed by Mansfield, outperformed the MSCI China Index from August 2007 to April2012 by 72.1%* net of fees● Mansfield began his investment career in 1990 as an analyst with Hoare Govett, beforemoving on to ING Barings Securities HK Limited in 1992 and Munich Re Asia CapitalManagement in 2000● Awards won:– Taipei Foundation of Finance-Bloomberg Awards 2012 & 2011:GAM Star China Equity Fund – Best Foreign Fund (3 years)– Professional Adviser Awards 2011:GAM Star China Equity Fund – Best Fund Manager Over 3 years– Lipper Fund Awards 2011, Switzerland:GAM Star China Equity Fund – Best Equity China Fund Over 3 years– Lipper Fund Awards 2011, Hong Kong:GAM Star China Equity Fund – Best Equity China Fund Over 3 years*Source: Bloomberg (31 July 2007 – 30 April 2012). Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 ReformsCompetitive LandscapeSource: BloombergPast performance is not an indicator of future performance.0204060801001201401601802005432112111098765432112111098765432112111098765432112111098765432112111098201220112010200920082007Aberdeen Global Chinese Equity A2 Templeton China A Acc $ GAM Star China Equity USD AccFidelity Greater China A-USD First State China Growth II Acc Schroder Greater ChinaDuring Mansfield Mok’s five yeartenure at GAM, the $1.5 billion GAMStar China Equity Fund outperformedthe MSCI China Index by 72.1%Characteristics of a Concentrated Portfolio:● Alpha is mainly generated in an up-marketwhere the “Buy and Hold” re-rating strategy ismost successful (early 2009 to mid 2010)● Insurance protections including use of indexput option and the increase in exposure ofhigh dividend yield stock will enhance returnin the down market (2008).● Insurance protection policy will be lesseffective when the Fund’s AUM reachesUSD500m (mid 2010).● When the Fund’s AUM grows beyondUS$500m:– the investable universe will shrink– more time to build/exit a position
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms32A-Share: RMB-denominated ordinary share. It is issued by domestic companies for trade with RMB by domesticinstitutions, organizations and individuals (exclude Taiwan, HK and Macao investors).B-Share: RMB-denominated special share. It is traded in foreign currency on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets.B-share transaction was only for natural persons, legal persons and other organizations overseas or in Taiwan, HKand Macao, Chinese citizens settled in foreign countries, and other investors allowed by the CSRC. After February19, 2001, the commission opened the B-share market to domestic investors with foreign currency.H-Share: companies incorporated in Mainland China and whose listings in Hong Kong are approved by the ChinaSecurities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). Shares in these companies are listed in Hong Kong, subscribed for andtraded in Hong Kong dollars or other currencies, and referred to as H shares.Red Chip: enterprises that are incorporated outside of the Mainland and are controlled by Mainland Governmententities. The most important difference between a red chip company and an H-share company is that a red chipcompany is not Mainland-incorporatedDefinition Of Various China SharesSource: China Securities Regulatory Commission websiteHK Stock Exchange website
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms33MSCI China Index Top Ten Components2007 vs 2012Dec 2012 % Dec 2007 %China Mobile 9.91 China Mobile 17.57CCB – H 8.17 China Life Insurance 6.05ICBC – H 6.52 Petrochina 5.60CNOOC 5.45 CNOOC 4.28BOC – H 4.74 China Petroleum & Chemical 4.20Tencent 4.60 CCB – H 3.47Petrochina – H 4.22 ICBC – H 3.46China Life Insurance 3.43 China Shenhua 3.19China Petroleum & Chemical 2.68 Ping An Insurance 2.50Ping An Insurance 2.22 BOC – H 1.83Source: Nomura
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms34Highlights of Investment ThemesExtract from China’s Stock Market: A Stock Picker’s Paradise (Oct/Nov 2012)
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms35RMB Internationalisation: Banking ReformChina banks are to focus on their main banking business.Basel III: Banks are required to increase their Capital Adequacy Ratios and have noadditional capital for other businesses e.g. insuranceInterest rate deregulation: This will break the oligopoly of the big five banks and provide amore favourable operating environment for other specialty lendersDeepening/broadening corporate bond market: This will result in an additional fundingsource for new players.Emergence of the non-bank financial sector:–Insurance and specialty lender
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms36Insurance: An Underpenetrated BusinessSource: IMF, Swiss Re, ManulifeGDP, Penetration and Life Market(Life Insurance penetration vs. GDP per Capita2011Premiumas%ofGDP2011 GDP per Capita (US$)Emerging MarketsMatureMarketsFutureGiants
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms37China Consumption Has a Much Bigger ScaleSource: McKinsey Global InstituteIncomes are rising in developing economies faster, and at a greater scale, than at anyprevious point in history.1Time to increase per capita GDP in PPP terms from $1,300 to $2,600
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms38A Big Increase in Middle Income GroupSource: McKinsey Insights China► China’s middle incomeconsumer household isexpected to reach 166mby 2020, double thetotal of US, Japan andGermany combined.► The increase in middleincome consumersshould support thedemand fordiscretionary goods.
China Sets Sail For New Leadership: 2013 Reforms39Strong Demand for DiscretionarySource: McKinsey Insights ChinaRising importance of consumer spending.
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