For Professional Investors and Advisors OnlyReleasing Value in US Equities CITYWIRE - NOVEMBER 2012
Releasing Value in US EquitiesNOVEMBER 2012ContentsIntroduction to RWC US Absolute Alpha 3Portfolio Management Team 4Fund Performance 8Investment Process 12Risk Management 19Fund Summary 24Contact 26
RWCIntroduction to RWC US Absolute AlphaOur Investment Approach• A liquid and transparent Long/Short US equity strategy • Strategy first launched at Threadneedle Asset Management in 2004 • Launched strategy at RWC in 2009• The Fund aims to provide strong risk-adjusted returns with significantly lower volatility than the S&P500 index• Disciplined focus on portfolio liquidity• Fundamental stock picking drives returns• Aims to identify patterns of information which may be indicative of changing company or industry dynamics• Strong focus on sectors that offer a high level of performance transparency and frequent data delivery e.g. retail, leisure, gaming, housing, autos and energy• Gross exposure actively managed to protect capital• Net exposure managed to take advantage of directional opportunities when they occur RWC | 3
RWC US Absolute Alpha FundPortfolio Management Team
RWCUS Equities: Portfolio Management Team Mike Corcell Portfolio Manager16 years experience as portfolio manager & analyst for both long only and hedge fundsJoined RWC as a Partner in June 2009 to launch US long / short strategy2008 – S.A.C. Global Investors L.L.P.• Lead Manager of a US long / short equity book2003-2008 – Threadneedle Asset Management• Responsible for launching and managing the Threadneedle American Crescendo Fund from June 2004• Runner-up 2007 Euro Hedge Global Fund of the Year2002-2003 – Karsch Capital NYCBA (Hons) Degree from Colgate University New York RWC | 5
RWCUS Equities: Portfolio Management Team Alexander Robarts Co-Portfolio Manager15 years industry experience – 7 years of which with Mike CorcellCo-portfolio manager and Equity analyst with generalist responsibilities2005-2009 – Threadneedle Asset Management• US Buy Side Equity Analyst2000-2005 – Insight Investment• Buy Side Equity Analyst for US, Canada, Japan and Asia Pacific1997-2000 – Morley Fund Management• Buy Side Equity AnalystMA (Hons) Degree from Edinburgh University RWC | 6
RWCUS Equities: Portfolio Management Team Dion Purll Adrian Bottega Dealer Analyst11 years industry experience Equity analyst with generalist responsibilities2007-July 2010 April 2011-September 2011• Portfolio manager support within the operations team at RWC • Fixed Income Strategy Research at Barclays Capital2006-2007 June 2009-February 2011• Position Keeping & Derivatives Reconciliations Team Leader – • Performance Manager at Fortiwone Strategic Incentive BNP Paribas Securities Services: London Management2004-2006 January 2006-February 2009• Position Keeping, approx 1,500 funds - Deutsche Asset • Audit Clerk at Ernst & Young Management: London Chartered Accountant (CA) and Level III candidate in the2001-2003 CFA Program• Associate Support Analyst / Cash & Stock Reconciliations - Commonwealth Custodial Services Ltd: Sydney RWC | 7
RWC Performance of Strategy - Returns Data as of the end of RWC US Absolute Fund Cumulative Performance October 2012 Alpha Fund 8.0% 6.0% Total Return since Inception 6.91% Annualised Return 2.23% 4.0% Volatility 6.8 2.0% % of Positive Months 53 0.0% % of Negative Months 47 -2.0% Sharpe Ratio 0.3 -4.0% Sortino Ratio 0.4 -6.0% Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD RWC US AA - - - - - - - - 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.9%2009 S&P 500 - - - - - - - - - -2.0% 5.7% 1.8% 5.5% RWC US AA 0.0% -1.5% 1.0% 2.4% -2.0% -3.3% 0.1% -0.9% -0.7% 0.9% -1.3% 0.8% -4.4%2010 S&P 500 -3.7% 2.9% 5.9% 1.5% -8.2% -5.4% 6.9% -4.7% 8.7% 3.7% -0.2% 6.5% 12.8% RWC US AA 0.6% 1.4% -0.6% 1.2% -0.7% -1.2% 2.0% -0.4% -2.9% -0.1% -0.4% -1.1% -2.3%2011 S&P 500 2.3% 3.2% -0.1% 2.9% -1.4% -1.8% -2.2% -5.7% -7.2% 10.8% -0.5% 0.9% 0.0% RWC US AA 0.7% 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.9% -0.5% 3.1% 2.1% -0.1% 12.4%2012 S&P 500 4.4% 4.1% 3.1% -0.7% -6.3% 4.0% 1.3% 2.0% 2.4% -2.0% 12.3% Source: Bloomberg. Equity Index is S&P 500 Total Return Index in US dollars. Past performance is not a guide to the future. The price of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested RWC | 9
RWC Performance of Strategy - Returns Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD Crescendo - - - - - 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 1.3% 0.2% 3.7% 15.2%2004 S&P 500 - - - - - 1.9% -3.3% 0.4% 1.1% 1.5% 4.0% 3.4% 9.3% Crescendo 1.2% 1.5% 0.8% -1.3% 1.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.8% 1.8% -2.8% 5.4% 2.1% 14.6%2005 S&P 500 -2.4% 2.1% -1.8% -1.9% 3.2% 0.1% 3.7% -0.9% 0.8% -1.7% 3.8% 0.0% 4.9% Crescendo 1.8% 0.6% 2.0% -0.1% -2.1% -2.9% 1.3% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 5.3% 2.5% 14.7%2006 S&P 500 2.6% 0.3% 1.2% 1.3% -2.9% 0.1% 0.6% 2.4% 2.6% 3.3% 1.9% 1.4% 15.8% Crescendo 3.4% -0.8% 0.6% 2.8% 6.6% 1.7% 6.1% -1.5% 5.1% 3.5% 0.5% 0.9% 32.7%2007 S&P 500 1.5% -2.0% 1.1% 4.4% 3.5% -1.7% -3.1% 1.5% 3.7% 1.6% -4.2% -0.7% 5.5% Crescendo -5.3% +0.5% - - - - - - - - - - -4.8%2008 S&P 500 -6.0% -3.2% - - - - - - - - - - -9.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD SAC n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -5.47%* n/a n/a n/a2008 S&P 500 -6.0% -3.2% -0.6% 4.8% 1.1% -8.6% -1.0% 1.2% -9.1% -16.9% -7.5% 0.8% -38.5% *Note that SAC have waived confidentiality restrictions relating to the performance during the period June to October. Source: Bloomberg. Equity Index is S&P 500 Total Return Index in US dollars. Fund data refers to Threadneedle American Crescendo US dollar unrestricted share class. Data from May 2004 – February 2008. This period relates to the period Mike Corcell was the Portfolio Manager on the Fund. Important note: All performance data relates to the offshore limited feeder fund. Performance for the onshore LLC fund may vary due to different withholding taxes and fees. Past performance is not a guide to the future. The price of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested RWC | 10
RWCDistribution of Returns – Limited Drawdowns S&P 500 Index - Distribution of Monthly Returns 12 10 8 Months 6 4 2 0 -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% Monthly Return1 RWC USAA - Distribution of Monthly Returns 12 10 8 Months 6 4 2 0 -9% -8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% Monthly Return1Source: RWC1Please note that monthly returns are in 1% buckets from the stated number; the quoted number is the higher bound of the range. As an example “-3%” represents returns between -3% and -4%; likewise a “3%” range reflects returnsbetween 2% and 3%. RWC | 11
RWCStock Selection ParametersOnce identified, stocks are assessed through an analysis of: • Pricing and capacity trends • Return on invested capital • Management actions • Broader industry dynamics • Optionality in growth model • Valuation metricsPrice targets set for every stock in portfolioLong and short ideas are assessed similarly, but valuation parameters drive entry pointsFundamentally, recognising a “good idea” and sizing it correctly are core skills RWC | 13
RWCInvestment Process Idea Generation Company meetings Primary Research Balance sheet and Cash flow focused screening High Level Analysis Industry Dynamics Catalysts /change Valuation drivers Company Analysis Earnings quality and trend Management quality Detailed company model Portfolio Price targets and risk targets Idea conviction Position size RWC | 14
RWCInvestment ThemesExamples of themes that we look for when selecting stocks:Capacity Change • Industry consolidation or individual company actions leading to greater pricing power • Increasing capacity leading to lower returns on capitalCyclical Reversion • Current industry trends are better/worse than long term averages with valuations discounting the current paradigm • Potential exists for a return to long term averages which would result in a significant valuation adjustmentOptionality • A potential catalyst exists (such as increased capital return) but is not being discounted at the current valuation • The underlying fundamentals stack up limiting risk should the catalyst not transpire RWC | 15
RWCImplementation of Investment Opportunities – Case StudyCapacity Change: Starbucks (SBUX) - ShortIdea Implementation: Q212Why of interest?• Valuation at 27x forward EPS represented a 35% premium to the historic average• Change of strategy: Having successfully downsized their US store base, capital expenditures started to increase materially for FY 2012 (Sept) to $850m from $532m in FY 2011 to grow the store count in the US and internationallyCatalysts/Change• We viewed SBUX’s capex plan as materially increasing the execution risk for the company as well as lowering the free cash flow generation going forward• We believe that investors had rewarded SBUX with a higher multiple given their capital constraint with capex below depreciation from 2009-2011 (with the forward p/e increasing to 25x from 15x in the same period)Price Targets & Monitoring• Initial target set at $40 or 20x forward earnings, in line with the 5 yr average• Monthly channel checks for domestic same store sales (pointed to decelerating trends in June 2012) RWC | 16
RWCImplementation of Investment Opportunities – Case StudyCyclical Reversion: US Homebuilders (Lennar and DR Horton) – LongIdea Implementation: Q411Why of interest?• Valuation – Group trading at book value (compared to a historic range of 1-2x book value)• Cyclically depressed – demand at post war lows and less than half the 50 year average. Any improvement could be sustained for several years with the valuation limiting potential downsideCatalysts/Change• US Mortgage rates were below 4% at the end of Q4 2011 from 5% at the end of 2010 with apartment rents increasing 5% annually. Affordability was at record levels with the cost to buy 20% below the cost to rent• Early signs of a recovery with monthly orders for December up more than 20% compared to mid single digit increases in the prior 5 months. Searches on Google for “buy a house” were up 79% in Q4 2011 when compared to Q4 2010Price Targets & Monitoring• Initially our price targets were set at 1.5x book in Q1 2012. As we became more confident in the recovery via weekly order checks through the key selling season we increased our targets to 2.0x book value• We had our maximum position size when Lennar reported Q2 EPS in late June when the stocks were trading at 1.4x book value and our model gave a 15% beat compared to the consensus on orders• We have since reduced our position sizes as the risk reward has become more balanced RWC | 17
RWCImplementation of Investment Opportunities – Case StudyOptionality: US Merchant Power (Genon Energy and NRG Energy) - LongIdea Implementation: Q212Why of interest?• Valuation - after significant underperformance, the names were trading below their replacement cost• Evidence that natural gas prices may have bottomed with production declines in evidence with Natural Gas below $2.50Catalysts/Change• The merchant power sector has always been an area of consolidation given the high fixed cost nature of the of the business (with the vast majority of acquired company corporate overhead eliminated in a business combination)• Improving industry fundamentals as well as lower capex going forward also set the group up for improved free cash flow generation in 2013Price Targets & Monitoring• NRG announced an all share bid for Genon in July 2012 and we subsequently exited the positions when the stocks reached price targets RWC | 18
RWCPortfolio Construction & Risk Management Permitted / Maximum Range Typical Exposure Click to edit title Long / short ratio Less than 2:1 1.5:1 Gross Range n/a 80% to 150% Net Range n/a -10% to +30% No of Long Positions n/a 30-50 No of Short Positions n/a 50-75 Largest Long Max 10% (at market) Average 2.5% Largest Short Max 5% (at market) Average 1% Illiquids Less than 10% in stocks less than $500m mkt cap Minimal VaR(99% / 1 month) Set by regulators (CSSF) Maximum 20% 6% - 8% Counterparty Exposure 10% of NAV to any single counterparty n/a Concentration Limits Sum of position >5% cannot exceed 40% of NAV n/a • Positions sized relative to risk & reward – target of 3:1 upside-downside skew • Diversification through independence of investment these • Long-short ratio enables fund to perform in all market environments • Gross exposure reduced at times of performance stress • Willing to be directional (including net short) • Very limited or no exposure to illiquid stocks • Ability to liquidate 95% of portfolio within 3 days • Hard stop losses – 20% peak to trough for all positions1 Data is from May 2004 – February 2008. This period relates to the period Mike Corcell was the Portfolio Manager on the American Crescendo US Dollar Fund. Typical defined as 85% of time over period. The data is for illustrative purposes only to show a sample of the relevant limits and exposures that may apply to a portfolio utilizing the strategy. There is no guarantee that the actual fund will implement all the above parameters. RWC | 202 Value at Risk - A measure of risk that indicates the maximum loss, based on a given confidence level, that a portfolio may incur over a given period.
RWC3 Month Rolling Volatility and Monthly Net & Gross Management Monthly Net & Gross Management 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% Net Gross 60% 40% 20% 0% Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 3 Month Rolling Volatility 40% 35% 30% 25% SPX 3m Rolling Vol 20% USAA 3m Rolling Vol 15% 10% 5% 0% Dec-2009 Apr-2010 Aug-2010 Dec-2010 Apr-2011 Aug-2011 Dec-2011 Apr-2012 Aug-2012Source: RWC RWC | 21
RWCCorrelation Analysis Annualized Statistical Alpha (v SPX) - 130 days1 15% Annualized Statistical Alpha 10% 2012 9.3% 5% Pre-2012 -3.5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Sep-2009 Mar-2010 Sep-2010 Mar-2011 Sep-2011 Mar-2012 Sep-2012 130d Up- and Down-Market Correlations2 Up-Market Correlations 0.6 2012 0.43 0.4 Pre-2012 0.17 0.2 Down-Market Correlations 0 2012 0.39 -0.2 Pre-2012 0.33 Sep-2009 Mar-2010 Sep-2010 Mar-2011 Sep-2011 Mar-2012 Sep-2012 Down Correlation Up CorrelationSource: Bloomberg, RWC1 The annualized statistical alpha (intercept) of regressing the daily returns of USAA B $ on the daily returns of the S&P500, calculated over rolling 130-day periods since inception. A measure of the annualized average daily fund performance that cannotbe explained by the fund’s beta to the market. RWC | 222 The Up-Market Correlation is the rolling 130-day correlation between the USAA B $ daily returns and those of the S&P500 on the days in which the S&P500 has a positive return. The Down-Market Correlation is the rolling 130-day correlation betweenthe USAA B $ daily returns and those of the S&P500 on the days in which the S&P500 has a negative return.
RWCRisk Management Oversight Portfolio Risk Management Internal Risk Management & Oversight• Portfolio risk focused at a stock level • Separation of compliance, risk monitoring & portfolio management• Portfolio analytics function gives output on a wide range of portfolio level • Independent Risk Manager reporting directly to CEO risks and attribution • Daily independent review of stock, market, sector, style / thematic and macroeconomic exposures• Fund is highly liquid with position sizes matched to stock liquidity • Exposures considered within the context of the risks observed and evolving within the market • Bespoke risk analytics that are fully integrated with exposure analytics • Significant risks discussed directly with PM and highlighted to CEO who has the ultimate oversight of risk. CEO has regular review meetings with the PM teams Independent Fund Monitoring Corporate Risk Management• RWC act as the fund’s advisor • Revenue is diversified across investment teams, products and clients. Less than 50% of client assets are hedge funds.• BPERE (Rothschild) are independent administrator & custodian • Business is managed to be profitable before performance fees are• Deutsche Bank AG and UBS have been appointed as prime broker generated• Kinetic Partners appointed for local Luxembourg and UCITS oversight • Independent compliance monitoring firm, IMS, complete compliance• Counterparty exposure limited to 10% of NAV review bi-annually• Daily production and reconciliation of NAVs • Front end order management system (with trip wires for mandate• Daily cash reconciliation restrictions and full audit trail), Latent Zero• Independent Board of Directors speak with portfolio manager and CEO once a quarter RWC | 23
RWCRWC US Absolute Alpha – Indicative Term Sheet Click to edit titleLaunch Date 25th September 2009Liquidity Daily subscriptions & redemptions / daily NAVFees 2% AMC / 20% performance feePerformance Fee HWM Paid quarterly. Share class level high water markPerformance Fee hurdle US LIBOR (or share class currency equivalent)Fund structure Luxembourg SICAV (UCITS) - sub-fund of the “RWC Funds” SICAVCurrency USD base currency – GBP, EUR hedged share classesUCITS IV designation “Sophisticated Fund” – VaR approach to exposure 20% VaR monthly with a 99% confidence levelAdministrator Banque Privée Edmond de Rothschild EuropeInstruments used Long positions – cash equities / CFDs Short positions – CFDsExposures 200% maximum gross exposure (longs + shorts) Net market exposure of -20% to +60%Local Registrations Luxembourg, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, UK, FranceTax Registered for Reporting Status for 2010 – GBP / USD / EUR share classes German and Austrian tax transparency across share classes RWC | 25
RWCContact Robert Gourlay | Susanne Sorge Please contact us if you require any further information or would like to discuss any of our strategies. Robert Gourlay Direct: +44 20 7227 6012 Mobile: +44 7932 762848 Email: email@example.com Susanne Sorge Direct: +44 20 7227 6019 Mobile: +44 7725 757 614 Email: firstname.lastname@example.org RWC | 26
RWC Risk Warnings & DisclaimersThis document contains information relating to RWC Partners Limited, RWC Focus Asset Management Limited and RWC Asset Management LLP (collectively, “RWC”), each of which is authorised and regulated in the UnitedKingdom by the Financial Services Authority (“FSA”), and services provided by them and may also contain information relating to certain products managed or advised by RWC (“RWC Funds”).RWC may act as investment manager or adviser, or otherwise provide services, to more than one product pursuing a similar investment strategy or focus to the product detailed in this document. RWC seeks to minimise anyconflicts of interest, and endeavours to act at all times in accordance with its legal and regulatory obligations as well as its own policies and codes of conduct.The services provided by RWC are available only for and this document is directed only at, persons that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under rules of the FSA. It is not intended for distribution to andshould not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client.In addition, although certain sub-funds of RWC Funds SICAV are recognised schemes for the purposes of Section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom (“FSMA”), all other RWC Funds areunregulated collective investment schemes for the purposes the FSMA, the promotion of which either in or from the United Kingdom is restricted by law. Accordingly, this document is issued and approved by RWC Limited forcommunication by RWC Partners only to, and is directed only at, persons reasonably believed by it to be of a kind to whom it may communicate financial promotions relating to unregulated collective investment schemes by virtueof the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Promotion of Collective Investment Schemes) (Exemptions) Order 2001, as amended (the “Order”), or the Conduct of Business Rules of the FSA. Such persons include: (i) personsoutside the United Kingdom; (ii) persons having professional experience of participating in unregulated collective investment schemes; and (iii) high net worth bodies corporate, partnerships, unincorporated associations, trusts, etc.falling within Article 22 of the Order. Any unregulated collective investment schemes described herein are available only to such persons, and persons of any other description may not rely on the information in this document.Where this document is received outside the United Kingdom, it is the responsibility of every person reading this document to satisfy himself as to the full observance of the laws of any relevant country, including obtaining anygovernment or other consent which may be required or observing any other formality which needs to be observed in that country. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer or solicitation by anyone in any jurisdiction in whichsuch an offer is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. Interests in RWC Funds are available only in jurisdictions where their promotion and sale are permitted.No person receiving this document may further distribute it, or copies of it, to any other person or publish any of its contents, in whole or in part, for any purpose.This document is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in it is subject to updating, completion, modification and amendment. RWC does not accept any liability (whether direct or indirect) arising fromthe reliance on or other use of the information contained in it. The information set out in this document is to the reasonable belief of RWC, reliable and accurate at the date hereof, but is subject to change without notice. Inproducing this document, RWC may have relied on information obtained from third parties and no representation or guarantee is made hereby with respect to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Performancefigures and data analysis within this document are shown and calculated net of fees and expenses and represent the reinvestment of dividends and income. Market index information shown within this document is included toshow relative market performance for the periods indicated and not as standards of comparison. Such broadly based indices are unmanaged and differ in numerous respects from the portfolio composition of RWC Funds.This document does not constitute offer or solicitation to anyone in any jurisdiction of or to acquire interests in any RWC Fund. Investment in any RWC Fund should be considered high risk. Past performance is not a reliableindicator of future results and may not be repeated. The value of investments in RWC Funds and the income from them may fall as well as rise and may be subject to sudden and substantial falls. Changes in rates of exchangemay cause the value of such investments to fluctuate. An investor may not be able to get back the amount invested and the loss on realisation may be very high and could result in a substantial or complete loss of the investment.In addition, an investor who realises their investment in RWC Funds after a short period may not realise the amount originally invested as a result of charges made on the issue and/or redemption of such investment. The value ofsuch interests for the purposes of purchases may differ from their value for the purpose of redemptions. No representations or warranties of any kind are intended or should be inferred with respect to the economic return from, orthe tax consequences of, an investment in RWC Funds. Current tax levels and reliefs may change. Depending on individual circumstances, this may affect investment returns. There is no guarantee that the securities referred to inthis document will be held by RWC Funds in the future. Nothing in this document constitutes advice on the merits of buying or selling a particular investment. This document does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.This document expresses no views as to the suitability or appropriateness of the RWC Funds or any other investments described herein to the individual circumstances of any recipient. Potential investors in the RWC Fundsshould refer to the latest relevant Full Prospectus, KIID and latest Annual and Interim Reports for more information.A United Kingdom investor may not have the right (otherwise provided under the FSA Handbook of Rules and Guidance) to cancel any agreement constituted by acceptance by or on behalf of an RWC Fund of an application forinterests in an RWC Fund. In addition, most if not all of the protections provided by the United Kingdom regulatory structure will not apply to investments in an RWC Fund. Investors in an RWC Fund will not receive compensationunder the Financial Services Compensation Scheme in the United Kingdom in the event that the fund is unable or likely to be unable to satisfy claims against it.This document is issued by RWC Partners Limited, a company registered in England and Wales (No. 03517613) with its registered address at 60 Petty France, London SW1H 9EU.. RWC | 27
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