For professional use only – Not for Public distributionMay 2013Aberdeen Latin American Equity FundCitywire Private Client Manager RetreatJoanne Irvine, Head of Emerging Markets ex AsiaAberdeen Asset Management
Agenda• Team• Investment philosophy and approach• Why Latin America?• Current positioning• Stock examples• Outlook• Appendices1
Latin American team• Team across breadth of Global Emerging Markets• Portfolio management led by team based in London and São Paulo• Team members cross-cover markets• Active management, disciplined investment process• Formal meetings on weekly basis2
Organisational structure3* Head of desk^ CEO of Aberdeen Islamic Asset Management Sdn BhdInvestment support staff in italicsSource: Aberdeen Asset Management, as at 31 Dec 12Eduardo FigueiredoBrunella IsperNick Robinson*São PauloAndy BrownMubashira BukhariCatriona EdmondJoanne Irvine*Devan Kaloo*Fiona ManningSusan McDonaldStephen ParrGabriel SacksWilliam ScholesPeter TaylorOsamu YamagataCentral Dealers:Russell Clements, MatthewDrake, Lee Dobinson,Mandy PikeFlavia CheongChong Yoon-ChouKristy FongGan Ai MeeAndrew GillanMark Gordon-JamesPruksa IamthongthongAdrian LimLouis LuYoojeong OhThomas ReevesDavid SmithJames ThomChristopher WongHugh Young*Boo Siew Yan, Cheng HuiFang, Felicia Lee, Ng AiHua, Emerald Rosasillfiani,Tan Shuyun, Eunice Toh,Jace Zeng MonCentral Dealers:Rebecca Ang, Richard Ang,Linda Mangsud, DerekMcCole*Nicholas ChuiFrank TianKathy XuNicholas Yeo*Orsen KarnburisudthiRatanawan SaengkitikomolAdithep Vanabriksha*Sutatip PremruthaiCentral Dealer:Jira VareewattanasakGerald Ambrose*Evan CheahMohd Najman Md IsaBharat JoshiJolynn KekAbdul Jalil Rasheed^Andrew SanLondon Singapore Hong Kong Bangkok Kuala LumpurHead of EquitiesDevan KalooHugh YoungHead of Global Emerging Markets
Investment philosophy and approach• We believe that, over the long term, share prices reflect underlying businessfundamentals• We identify ‘best ideas’ at reasonable/cheap valuations via company visits• Risk is investing in a poor quality company and/or overpaying, and not benchmark-relative• Emphasis on collective wisdom of team, not stars5We do not trade, but invest for the long term – and only incompanies that we understand and can value
Aberdeen investment process: quality first then price6Step 1:QualityPass or fail?• Business strategy• Management• Financials• Transparency• Shareholders’ interestsAberdeenuniverse ofstocks85 stocks• Price/earnings• Price to cash flow• Price to book• ROE• Dividend YieldStep 2:ValuationCheap orexpensive?Step 3:Portfolioconstruction• Risk controls• Model portfolioCompany visit noteInvestment process is consistent across all equities,regardless of mandates and client typeRevisit Watch list MonitorSource: Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited, 31 Dec 12
Aberdeen’s competitive advantage• Investing in Latin America since 1980s• Fund managers on the ground in the region• Proprietary research/visit note gives deeper insight• Always meet and interview a company before investing• Genuine team effort• Long term buy-and-hold strategy resulting in low turnover, c15% per annum7Launch date: 16 Feb 04. Source: Aberdeen Asset Managers, BPSS, Datastream, Gross, USDAs at 31 Mar 13 Annualised% 1 year 3 years 5 years Since InceptionRepresentative Lat Am segregated account (USD) 13.56 10.65 9.07 21.87MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America -4.14 0.14 0.59 17.48Difference +17.7 +10.51 +8.48 +4.39
Why invest in Latin America?• Improved economic fundamentals, robust financial institutions and rise of stabledemocracies support growth prospects• Young populations and a growing workforce with enhanced earning and spendingpower will drive domestic growth and investment• Developing financial systems providing a deepening pool for institutional and retailinvestors within region• Growing pool of well managed companies with declining corporate debt levels, healthyprofitability and attractive valuations• Improving corporate governance should lead to further re-ratings9
Historical Latin American equity performance• The best performing emerging markets equity asset class over the last 20 years10Comparative Total ReturnsSource: Bloomberg as at 2 May 13 (Benchmarks: MSCI EM, MSCI EM Latin America, MSCI EM Asia)MSCI EM MSCI EM Latin America MSCI EM Asia-1001993199419951999199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220138007006005004003002001000
World class consumer companies…16Name DescriptionWalmex Mexican subsidiary of Walmart with a dominant position in Mexico andCentral AmericaFEMSA/KOF FEMSA Mexican beverage conglomerate with the largest convenience store chainin MexicoLojas Renner Leading Brazilian department storeSouza Cruz BAT’s highly profitable Brazilian subsidiaryNatura Branded cosmetics manufacturer selling through its vast direct saleschannelFalabella Chilean listed retailer operating department stores, home improvementstores, supermarkets and malls which offers financial services to its vastcustomer base throughout the Andean countriesKimberly-Clark KC’s Mexican subsidiaryLeading local retail banks Bradesco, ITAU, Banorte and Santander ChileSource: Aberdeen Asset Management.These securities have been used for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the investment management style and not as an indication of performance.
17Name DescriptionHering The largest Brazilian apparel franchiseArezzo The largest retail brand of womens fashion footwear in Latin AmericaAmbev Largest beverage company in LatamBancolombia Largest financial conglomerate in ColombiaAndina 7th largest Coca Cola bottler in the world and the 2nd largest in SouthAmericaExito Leading multi-format retailer in ColombiaSource: Aberdeen Asset Management.These securities have been used for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the investment management style and not as an indication of performance.…feature in abundanceAccess to the continual shift towards domestic consumption and the broadeningof the market
Outlook Summary18• Economic recovery has cooled to varying degrees• Domestic demand should help support economic growth• Macro performance does not translate into stock market performance• Stock selection & proprietary research is key – investing in companies, noteconomies• Companies across Latin America are in good shape and continue to improve
Global GDP growth (%oya)Source: J.P. MorganGrowth has cooled, to varying degrees23But then so has inflation and with that interest ratesBrazilian interest rates (%) and CPI (% YoY)Source: Bloomberg,Dec 122.92.4 2.8 2.6-0.2-220.127.116.11 1.2 0.96.44.55.4 5.74.4-18.104.22.168.5-6-4-2024682004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Developed economies Latin America0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.00Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Interest Rate CPI(%YoY)Estimate
Correlation between export growth and commodity prices, China is importantRecent slowdown partly reflects weaker exports24Latin America: Export Growth and Commodity prices Exports to China as a share of total exportsSource: JP MorganSource: JP Morgan
Exports (% of GDP – 2012)Source: JP MorganDespite common perception, exports are relatively small as a percentage of GDPYet LatAm is more insulated than expected…250.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0HungaryThailandSouthKoreaPolandMexicoChileRussiaChinaSouthAfricaIndonesiaTurkeyArgentinaColombiaIndiaBrazil
LatAm contribution to GDP growth (% YoY)… domestic demand should provide a cushionDomestic consumption and fixed investment are sensitive to local interest rates26Source: Haver, CEIC, UBS estimates, Jan 12
Source: BOAML , 29 May 12Yet, macro does not determine stock market performanceLittle correlation between the GDP growth and equity markets – take Brazil & China27Comparative Performance of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and BOVESPA Index, São Paulo Stock ExchangeComparative GDP Growth – Brazil and China-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0Mar02Jul02Nov02Mar03Jul03Nov03Mar04Jul04Nov04Mar05Jul05Nov05Mar06Jul06Nov06Mar07Jul07Nov07Mar08Jul08Nov08Mar09Jul09Nov09Mar10Jul10Nov10Mar11Jul11Nov11Mar12China Brazil010020030040050060020022003200420052006200720082009201020112012China (SHCOMP) Brazil (IBOV)
Source: UBS Macro Keys, 8 June 2011Macro does not determine stock market performanceEven countries growing at similar rates do not perform the same28Average growth rate, 2000-10 (%)024681012141618Brazil Poland TaiwanReal GDP Equity MarketInvest in companies not countries, stock-picking is key
Source: UBS Emerging Comment, 21 Jun 11Maybe, certainly over last 10 years Latin American profits grown faster than AsiaIf it is all about companies is it all about profit growth then?29US dollar market earnings (index, 2000 = 100)
Let’s examine that on a stock level – seems so30Source: Bloomberg, 1Jun 12. Thesesecurities havebeen used forillustrative purposesonly to demonstratethe investmentmanagement styleand not as anindication ofperformance.-80-60-40-200204060801001201402007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012FEMSA China Resources Ent Ltd-13.86%95.53%Sales EBITDA Debt/Equity Profits ROE %Companies 5 Yr CAGR Margin % % 5 Yr CAGR 2006 2011FEMSA 9.10% 15.3 3.2 15.9% 12.7 12.1China Resources Enterprises 12.60% 7.61 -7.5 2.3% 13.3 8.4Mexican consumer champ FEMSA has done better than local hero China Resources
But, it’s also a bit more complicated than that31Source: Bloomberg, 1 Jun12. These securitieshave been used forillustrative purposesonly to demonstratethe investmentmanagement styleand not as anindication ofperformance.-60-40-200204060801001201401602007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Banco Santander (Chile) China Construction Bank12.45%46.58%China Construction Bank has grown its earnings faster, yet its share price laggedEPS ROE NIM C / I Leverage CAR PerformanceBanks 5-Yr CAGR % % % X (Tier 1) 5-Yr CAGRBanco Santander Chile 13.2 21.7 5.3 38.5% 12.3X 11 / 14.0 12.7China Construction Bank 25.2 22.4 2.7 36.2% 15.1X 11 / 13.7 5.6
Source: Deutsche Bank, Hidden Drivers June 2011Ownership is importantRecent work points to correlation between state ownership and volatility32Figure 5: State Influence Score vs Volatility – a strong correlation
Source: Deutsche Bank, Hidden Drivers June 2011Companies with state ownership spend more & less likely to think as ownersNo surprise then to see rankings for state influence33Figure 4: BRICs have the highest rank of state influenceCountry Overall ScoreRussia 44China 40India 34Brazil 33Malaysia 30Indonesia 29Thailand 24S. Korea 23Turkey 20Poland 16Taiwan 15Mexico 14S. Africa 10Chile 6
Local banks are resilient and not instruments of state policy34Global Banks ROEs - 2012 and 2013Global banks – 2011E Core Tier 1 (%)Source: J.P. Morgan estimates for LatAm0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%EuropeaMedianAsianMedianGEMMedianLatAmMedianPeruChileColombiaBrazilMexico2011 2012E0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%GlobalMedianEuropeMedianEmergingEuropeMedianAsiaMedianLatAmMedianBrazilChileColombiaMexicoPeru2012E 2013ESource: Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg.
Latin American companies remain in good shapeSource: UBS, Jun 12 Source: UBS, Jun 12Return on Equity Net Debt / Equity0%5%10%15%20%25%9091929394959697989900010203040506070809101112Developed LatAm20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%888990919293949596979899000102030405060708091011eDeveloped LatAmNet Debt/EquityHealthy profits with low leverage; region compares well relative to developed markets35
Valuations reflect improving investor sentiment36LatAm – Forward P/ESource: Bloomberg, Dec 12LatAm – P/BVSource: Bloomberg, Dec 1246810121416Jun03Dec03Jun04Dec04Jun05Dec05Jun06Dec06Jun07Dec07Jun08Dec08Jun09Dec09Jun10Dec10Jun11Dec11Jun12Dec121.01.52.02.53.03.5Jun03Dec03Jun04Dec04Jun05Dec05Jun06Dec06Jun07Dec07Jun08Dec08Jun09Dec09Jun10Dec10Jun11Dec11Jun12Dec12
Global Emerging Markets equity teamDevan Kaloo, Head of Global Emerging MarketsMA in Management and International Relations, St AndrewsUniversity; MA in Investment Analysis, Stirling University. Workedwith Martin Currie in Edinburgh for five years before joining Aberdeenin December 2000.Joanne Irvine, Head of GEM ex AsiaCA. Upon qualifying, she worked in corporate finance, raisingdevelopment capital finance for private businesses. Joined Aberdeenin January 1996.Peter Taylor, Senior Investment Manager/Head of CorporateGovernanceCFA; BA in PPE, Oxford University; MA in Economics andInternational Relations, Johns Hopkins University. Previously withInternational Finance Corporation, Hong Kong. Joined Aberdeen inFebruary 2007.Andy Brown, Senior Investment ManagerCFA: BSc in Geography, St Andrews University. Joined Aberdeen inMarch 2005.Fiona Manning, Senior Investment ManagerCFA; BA in History with French, University of Durham. JoinedDeutsche Bank in 2001 as a trainee in sales and marketing, and laterbecame a junior UK equity analyst.Stephen Parr, Investment ManagerBA in Geography, Manchester University; PhD in Geography, KeeleUniversity; MBA, Warwick Business School. Joined Aberdeen in July2009 from Credit Suisse Asset Management where he worked in theGlobal emerging market equities team.Mubashira Bukhari, Investment ManagerCFA: MSc in Wealth Management, Singapore ManagementUniversity; MSc in Economics, Lahore University of ManagementSciences. Joined Aberdeen in July 2007 from KASB Bank, Pakistan.Osamu Yamagata, Investment ManagerMSc in Chemistry, Oxford University. Joined Aberdeen in July 2007.Susan McDonald, Assistant Investment ManagerCFA: MA in Accountancy and Hispanic Studies, University ofAberdeen. Joined Aberdeen in 2007 upon graduation.Gabriel Sacks, Assistant Investment ManagerBA in Land Economy, Cambridge University. Joined Aberdeen in2008.Catriona Edmond, Assistant Investment ManagerBSc in Economics, University of Bristol. Joined Aberdeen in 2008.William Scholes, Assistant Investment ManagerBA (Hons) in Modern and Medieval Languages, Magdalen College,Oxford. Joined Aberdeen in 2009.37LondonEMEA
Global Emerging Markets equity teamNick Robinson, Director – Head of Brazilian EquitiesCFA; MA in Chemistry, Lincoln College, Oxford. Joined Aberdeen in2000 and spent 8 years with the North American equity team,including 3 years based in the US. In 2008 he returned to London tojoin the Global emerging market equities team. Since October 2009he has been based in our research office in Brazil.Brunella Isper, Assistant Investment ManagerBSc in Public Administration, Fundacao Getulio Vargas – EAESP,Brazil. Joined Aberdeen in 2009 from Bresser Asset Managementwhere she worked as an equity research analyst.Eduardo Figueiredo, Investment AnalystBSc in Business, Fundacao Armando Alvares Penteado - FAAP,Brazil and CFA Level III candidate. Joined Aberdeen in 2011 fromMaua Sekular Investimentos where he worked as an equity researchanalyst.38São PauloLatam
Global Emerging Markets equity team39SingaporeAsia (i)Hugh Young, Head of Asian EquitiesBA in Politics, Exeter University, started investment career in 1980.In charge of the Group’s Asian funds since 1985. Founded AberdeenAsia in 1992.Chong Yoon-Chou, Investment DirectorCFA; MSc in Accounting & Finance and Information Systems,London School of Economics. Joined Aberdeen Asia in 1994 andwas in Sydney briefly from 2001 to 2002, before transferring toLondon same year to lead the Pan-European equity desk. Relocatedto Singapore in June 2008.Flavia Cheong, Investment DirectorCFA; MA in Economics, University of Auckland. Previously withInvestment Company of the People’s Republic of China andDevelopment Bank of Singapore. Joined Aberdeen Asia in 1996.Adrian Lim, Senior Investment ManagerCFA; BAcc, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. JoinedAberdeen in 2000. Previously an associate director at ArthurAndersen advising clients on mergers & acquisitions in South EastAsia.Christopher Wong, Senior Investment ManagerCFA; BA in Accounting and Finance, Heriot-Watt University,Edinburgh. Joined Aberdeen in December 2001. Previously anassociate director with Andersen Corporate Finance advising clientson regional M&A.Andrew Gillan, Senior Investment ManagerMA Joint Honours in French and European History, University ofEdinburgh. Joined Murray Johnstone in September 2000 andtransferred to Aberdeen Asia in November 2001.Mark Gordon-James, Senior Investment ManagerCFA; BSc in Geography and Economics, London School ofEconomics. Joined Aberdeen in 2004 from Merrill Lynch InvestmentManagers where he worked with the emerging markets team.Relocated to Singapore in November 2011.Kristy Fong, Investment ManagerCFA; BAcc, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. JoinedAberdeen in August 2004, having been a junior equities researchanalyst with UOB Kay Hian.James Thom, Investment ManagerMBA, Insead; MA, Johns Hopkins University; BSc, UniversityCollege, London. Previously with Actis, the emerging markets privateequity firm, based in Singapore and covering Southeast Asia. JoinedAberdeen in August 2010.Pruksa Iamthongthong, Investment ManagerBA in Business Administration, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand.Joined Aberdeen in August 2007.
Global Emerging Markets equity team40SingaporeAsia (i)Yoojeong Oh, Investment ManagerCFA; MEng in Engineering, Economics and Management from theUniversity of Oxford. Joined Aberdeen in 2005 on the Pan EuropeanEquity team in London before moving to Singapore.Gan Ai Mee, Assistant Investment ManagerBCom in Accounting & Finance and BSc in Information Sytems,University of Melbourne. A member of Institute of CharteredAccountants of Australia. Previously a senior associate withTransaction Advisory Services, Ernst & Young. Joined Aberdeen inApril 2009.Louis Lu, Assistant Investment ManagerMaster of Public Policy (MPP) in Economics, National University ofSingapore; BSc in Financial Mathematics, Peking University, China.Joined Aberdeen in July 2008.Thomas Reeves, Investment AnalystMSc in International Management, University of London; BA in EastAsian Studies, University of Sheffield. Joined Aberdeen in May 2010from Macquarie Securities, where he was a graduate trainee.David Smith, Head of Corporate GovernancePhD in Corporate Governance, MA in Corporate Strategy andGovernance, University of Nottingham; BSc in Business Economics,University of Wales. Joined Aberdeen in November 2011 from ISS,where he was head of Asia (ex-Japan) research.
Global Emerging Markets equity teamGerald Ambrose, Managing Director – MalaysiaAberdeen Asset Management Sdn BhdMA in Land Economy, Cambridge University. Joined Aberdeen in2005. Previously an institutional sales director at Kim Eng Securitiesin Singapore, HSBC James Capel and BNP Paribas in London, withthe latter sending him to set up the institutional broking operations ofits associate, Mohaiyani Securities Sdn Bhd, in 1990.Abdul Jalil Rasheed, CEO,Aberdeen Islamic Asset Management Sdn BhdBSc in Accounting & Finance, London School of Economics. Jaliljoined Aberdeen in 2005 and was involved with the establishment ofAberdeen Islamic Asset Management in 2009. Previously, Jalilworked as an Investment Analyst with Axis REIT where he wasresponsible for conducting due diligence on property acquisitions.Bharat Joshi, Assistant Investment Manager,Aberdeen Asset Management Sdn BhdBSc in Mathematics, Operational Research, Statistics andEconomics, University of Warwick. Joined Aberdeen in June 2007,prior to which he was a junior research analyst with Credit SuisseEquity Research Malaysia.Andrew San, Assistant Investment ManagerAberdeen Asset Management Sdn BhdBCom in Finance, Actuarial Studies and Accounting, University ofNew South Wales. Passed Level 3 of the CFA programme.Previously an equities analyst at Endeavour Equities. JoinedAberdeen in January 2009 as part of the Australian Equities teamand was transferred to the KL office in January 2012.Mohd Najman Md Isa, Investment AnalystAberdeen Islamic Asset Management Sdn BhdBEng in Civil Engineering and BCom in Finance, University ofMelbourne. Previously a senior executive in UEM Group Bhd’sCorporate Finance & Performance department. Joined Aberdeen inMarch 2011.Evan Cheah, Investment AnalystAberdeen Islamic Asset Management Sdn BhdBSc in Economics from the University of York in England. Previously,Evan worked for Citigroup as a research associate and was part ofthe team that covered Malaysian equities.Jolynn Kek, Investment AnalystAberdeen Asset Management Sdn BhdAssociation of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) affiliate andholds a First Class (Hons) degree in Applied Accounting from OxfordBrookes University. Before joining Aberdeen in 2011, she was anaudit associate with Ernst & Young where she performed externalaudits of both listed and non-listed Malaysian companies.41Kuala LumpurAsia (ii)
Global Emerging Markets equity teamNicholas Yeo, Director and Head of EquitiesCFA; BA in Accounting & Finance, University of Manchester; MSc inFinancial Mathematics, Warwick Business School. Joined Aberdeenfrom Murray Johnstone and was seconded to the London GEM teamfor two years until February 2004. Moved to Hong Kong in March2007.Kathy Xu, Investment ManagerBA in Economics, Fudan University, China; MSc in Economics,University of Hong Kong. Joined Aberdeen in September 2007.Frank Tian, Assistant Investment ManagerBSc in Economics, London School of Economics. Joined Aberdeen inNovember 2008.Nicholas Chui, Assistant Investment ManagerBAcc in Accountancy, Singapore Management University. JoinedAberdeen in February 2011.Adithep Vanabriksha, Chief Investment OfficerBSc, University of Maryland; MBA, Boston University. Joined June2002 from credit risk team, HSBC, Bangkok. Ten years’ experiencein financial services.Ratanawan Saengkitikomol, Investment ManagerBA in Business Administration, double majoring in Finance & Bankingand General Management, Assumption University, Bangkok; MSc inFinance, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology. Joined Aberdeenin April 2006 from Tisco Bank PCL.Orsen Karnburisudthi, Investment ManagerCFA; BSc in Economics, Wharton School of Business, University ofPennsylvania; MBA in Finance Management from Sloan School ofManagement, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA. JoinedAberdeen in May 2006 from Kasikornbank PCL.42Hong KongAsia (iii)Bangkok
Past performance is not a guide to future returns. The value of investments, and the income fromthem, can go down as well as up and your clients may get back less than the amount invested.The views expressed in this presentation should not be construed as advice on how to construct aportfolio or whether to buy, retain or sell a particular investment. The information contained in thepresentation is for exclusive use by professional customers/eligible counterparties (ECPs) and not thegeneral public. The information is being given only to those persons who have received this documentdirectly from Aberdeen Asset Management (AAM) and must not be acted or relied upon by personsreceiving a copy of this document other than directly from AAM. No part of this document may becopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or redistributed without the written consent of AAM.The information contained herein including any expressions of opinion or forecast have been obtainedfrom or is based upon sources believed by us to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to the accuracyor completeness.Issued by Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited which is authorised and regulated by the FinancialConduct Authority in the United Kingdom.43Not for public distributionFor professional use only
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