Asset Management For Professional Clients OnlyAccessing consumption trends in AsiaJustin Wells, Equity StrategistAmsterdam, April 2012
Table of ContentsSection 1 The Opportunity 2Section 2 Investment Universe and Process 6Section 3 UBS Asian Consumption Fund Update 11Section 4 Outlook & Strategy 13Appendix A Miscellaneous 20Appendix B Biographies 31
Growing consumption in AsiaConsumption in Asia has been growing – and will continue to do so Young population More wealth Urbanization More consumption Increasing debt levels Low penetration of consumer goodsAsia Consumption PotentialDid you know? One in four billionaires are now in Asia, up from one in ten in 2005 Greater China consumers will account for 44% of global luxury sales by 2020 Wine sales in Hong Kong rose 268% in 2010, making it arguably the world’s largest wine market In India, only 2% of households own an air-conditioner In Indonesia, only 8% of households own a personal computerSource: CLSA as of April 2011
Asia: Largest consumer base in the worldAsia accounts for 60% of world population Young population Increasingly wealthy (Forecasts)% of population aged 25 years and less (2010) 50 40 30 20 10 0 Asia US France UK Spain Germany JapanSource: United Nations Population Division, UBS IB research and estimates as of Aug 2011Expected addition (m) to workforce during 2010 – 2020 India 136 China 23 Indonesia 21 Brazil 15 IN, CH and ID adds 180 mn to the US 11 labor force over 2010-2020 Japan -8 -9 16x that of US Russia Europe -21 -50 0 50 100 150Source: World Bank, Euromonitor, US Census Bureau, CLSA Asia Pacific Markets as of Apr 2011
C:Program FilesUBSPresTemplatesPresPrintOnScreen.potGovernment policies stimulate mass market consumptionEconomic rebalancing in play: boost domestic consumption Nationwide increase in minimum wage China Social housing to provide affordable housing National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme India Higher minimum support prices for key agri-produce have helped drive rural incomes New rice pricing scheme - guarantee paddy rice prices (50% higher than current price)Thailand Nationwide increase in daily minimum wages by 40% … results in increased disposable income for the masses and therefore, greater consumption by middle- and low-income households Source: UBS Global Asset Management
UBS Asian Consumption FundPlaying the strong Asian consumption theme Includes:Consumer Tobacco: e.g. British American Tobaccostaples Beverages: e.g. China Mengniu Dairy, Uni President Consumables: e.g. Unilever(basicconsumption) Food: e.g. ITC, Lotte Agriculture: e.g. Olam IncludesConsumer Retail: e.g. Parkson Retaildiscretionary Autos: e.g. Honda, Tata Motors(“good to have” Media: e.g. Clear Media, Focus Mediawith more wealth) Gaming and hotels: e.g. Genting International Apparel: e.g. Giordano, Esprit, Ports Design Includes Medical services: e.g. Mindray Medical International Hospitals: e.g. Apollo hospitalHealthcare Pharmaceuticals: e.g. Sun PharmaNote: This information should not be considered as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security.
How is UBS Asian Consumption Fund managed?A theme product rather than sector product Business Exposure Asia Outside Asia Asia Asian consumption companies with Asian consumption companies with substantial business exposure to Asia substantial business exposure outside Asia Domicile Outside Asia Non-Asian consumption companies with Non-Asian consumption companies with substantial business exposure to Asia substantial business exposure outside Asia Note: Asia refers to Asia ex Japan
Investment process ACF portfolio 40-80 stocks Risk system Accurately quantify all portfolio risks Portfolio Construction Fundamental research Assess: 1. Industry outlook 2. Company model 3. Valuation Screen: Valuation based metrics (e.g. P/E, P/B) ~100 - 150 stocks Investment Universe ~400-500 stocks Note: Valuation primarily based on the Price/Intrinsic Value Philosophy Investment universe of investible stocks (i.e. at least USD 500 mn market capitalisation)
Emerging Markets Equities TeamA stable and experienced team Geoffrey Wong1 Head Global Emerging Markets & Asia Pacific EquitiesHong Kong / Singapore Zurich / London Sao Paulo / ChicagoManish Modi1 Cheah Yit Mee1 Projit Chatterjee1 Urs Antonioli1Portfolio Manager Portfolio Manager Equity Strategist Head of EM EMEA/ Gabriel Csendes1Asia ex Japan Asia ex Japan Portfolio Manager Latin America Equities Portfolio Manager AnalystBin Shi Sophia Tang Namit Nayegandhi Justin Wells GabriellaPortfolio Manager Equity Strategist Analyst Equity Strategist AbderhaldenChina Portfolio Manager AnalystChan Chee Seng Choo Shou Pin Matthew Adams Irina Budnikova BenitaAnalyst Analyst Analyst Analyst Mikolajewicz AnalystHai Huang Sanjeev Joshi Joanna Mak Mark RoggensingerAnalyst Analyst Analyst AnalystLeslie Chow Roger Lum Yu ZhangAnalyst Analyst AnalystJimmy Chua Paul Hillman Reginald Oh Macrina Otieno Steve Herbert Michael AbelleraHead Trader Trader Trader Trader EMEA Trader EMEA Trader Latin AmericaDorothy Lek Han Yaw JuanTrader Trader Source: UBS Global Asset Management As at January 2012 1 Member of Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Committee
Section 3UBS Asian Consumption Fund Performance
Asian Consumption: Performance Strong performance since inceptionSince Inception Calendar yearCumulative returns returns 120 UBS Asian Consumption Composite 60 MSCI Asia ex Japan Benchmark * 100 93.2 88.6 50 80 72.1 40 60 40 29.2(%) 30 (%) 22.2 19.6 20 12.5 13.7 10.6 20 0 -6.6 -6.1 10 -20 (17.3) -40 -38.3 0 -44.5 (47.8) Mar 08 - Mar 12 -60 2008** 2009 2010 2011 YTD Mar 2012Source: UBS Global Asset Management, Factset. Strategy was incepted in 29 February 2008. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The performance shown does not takeaccount of any commissions and costs charged when subscribing to and redeeming units. Commissions and costs have a negative impact on performance.* There was no representative benchmark up to 31 March 2010. Since 1 April 2010, the MSCI Asia ex Japan Consumer and Health Care Sectors Index (i.e. comprising of the consumer staples,consumer discretionary and healthcare sectors of MSCI Asia ex Japan) has been used as the benchmark.Returns are gross of fees. The Asian Consumption Strategy was launched in February 2008 with the UBS (Lux) Institutional Sicav – Asian Consumption (USD)/(SGD) RA. This institutional vehiclewas subsequently terminated after it was moved into the retail vehicle – the UBS (Lux) Equity Fund - Asian Consumption (USD) P-acc (valor 1041161) in Jul 2009.** From inception 29 February 2008 to Dec 2008
Asian Consumption: PositioningPositioning as of end March 2012 Investment objective: Stocks of companies Universe: Asia (ex Japan) stocks and other that are engaged in business activities of equity rights. providing goods/services to Asian consumers. Benchmark: MSCI Asia ex Japan Consumer Number of stocks: Concentrated portfolio and Healthcare sectors* with 30-60 stocks Country allocation Korea 29.0% Sector allocation 22.8% India 12.2% 18.8% 33.6% China 18.8% Consumer Staples 18.0% 37.7% Hong Kong 9.6% 61.1% 14.3% Consumer Discretionary 7.4% 51.4% Singapore 8.4% 5.3% 5.9% Health Care Taiwan 5.7% 3.7% 7.2% 0.0% Indonesia 4.0% Cash 1.7% 6.9% Malaysia 3.7% 0.0% 2.3% Others Thailand 5.6% 1.7% 0.8% Philippines 0.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0.0% UBS Asian Consumption (%) Benchmark (%) Cash 1.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Fund BM * There was no representative benchmark up to 31 March 2010. Since 1 April 2010, the MSCI Asia ex Japan Consumer and Health Care Sectors Index (i.e. comprising of the consumer staples, consumer discretionary and healthcare sectors of MSCI Asia ex Japan) has been used as the benchmark. Source: UBS Global Asset Management
Mass convenience stock example: HenganLeading player in Chinese personal hygiene products* Strong structural growth driven by: Low penetration level in China (tissue and toilet paper) – Accelerating urbanisation 13.3 14 – Increasing awareness of personal hygiene 12 10.0 9.6 9.3 9.0 (KG - Product) 10 – Low penetration 8.1 8 6.3 5.0 – “Premiumisation”/product upgrades 6 3.7 2.8 4 Potential margin expansion as raw-material 2 0 prices have started to decline and the German Japan Kong, Taiwan UK USA Australia France Korea China Hong company is running at low inventory levels Diaper usage per capita (population aged 0-4) per yearFrom cloth to disposable diapers 1,600 1,451 1,448 1,400 1,200 957 951 1,000 912 800 765 710 665 657 600 497 400 207 200 0 Japan Kong, Taiwan UK Germany USA Australia France Korea Russia China Hong Source: Euromonitor, CLSA Asia Pacific Markets as of Sep 2011 *Hengan’s key products include sanitary napkins, disposable diapers and tissue paper
Easing inflationary pressures give room for moreaccommodative monetary stanceAsia inflation Asia ex Japan Policy rate (%) %y/y %y/y 16 16% 14 14% 12% 12 Food 10% 10 inflation Nominal 8% policy rates 8 6% Headline 4% 6 inflation 4 2% Core 0% 2 inflation -2% 0 -4% Real policy (2) -6% rates Oct-11 Oct-01 Oct-10 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-01 Oct-10 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Note: data is based on % Y/Y (2007 Nominal GDP weighted) Source: CEIC, UBS IB research as of December 2011
C:Program FilesUBSPresTemplatesPresPrintOnScreen.potAsia ex Japan consumer sector valuationsBelow its historical averages PE Fwd to March 2012 AsiaEx - CD-CS-HC All Mean 1SD Upper 1SD Low er 20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Jul/02 Jul/03 Jul/04 Jul/05 Jul/06 Jul/07 Jul/08 Jul/09 Jul/10 Jul/11Data on the forward P/E of the Asia ex Japan consumer staples, consumer discretionary and healthcare sectors. SD refers to standard deviation (based on 5Y data)Source: J.P.Morgan Quant Strategy
Outlook on Asian ConsumptionAmidst uncertain, volatile markets, Asian Consumption is well positioned givenfocus on domestic consumer Opportunities Risks Fund’s focus on domestic consumer Contagion risks from sovereign debt issues should help outperformance amidst weak in Europe/US global macro conditions – Exposure to some sub-segments (e.g. Weakening consumer confidence tobacco) which are relatively more defensive – There has been some moderation in consumer and resilient to growth worries spending across Asia Inflationary pressures look to have peaked – monetary policy likely to ease India’s fiscal condition remains a concern – positive for consumer spending and rate – Sharp currency depreciation sensitive stocks – High current and fiscal deficits Valuations for many stocks still look attractive Structural growth drivers remain intact - demographics, urbanisation, productivity. Favourable government policies in key markets further boost consumption As of January 2012
In a nutshell…UBS Asian Consumption Fund A multi – decade opportunity • Demographics - greater propensity for credit Urbanisation - growing disposable income Government policies - low debt levels Buy Asian companies with focus on domestic consumer - Undiluted exposure to booming Asian consumer market Credible team and track record - Outperformance in different market conditions
Key recent portfolio tradesCautiously adding to ‘beaten-down’ higher beta stocks, while exiting companieswhere earnings growth at riskBuys: Sells: Gaming revenues continue to remain strong and Sands has new propertiesSands China Anta Sports (Hong Kong coming up that can drive stock Sales slowdown much higher than performance (China anticipateddiscretionary) Reduce underweight in gaming space sportswear) Parkson is a well managed department Parkson chain with stores in Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia. We expect new store Dongfeng Sold out of the Chinese auto company Retail Asia openings to drive earnings growth as slowing auto sales is a key risk Motor (Singapore (China auto)discretionary) Valuations are attractive Vinda is a play on falling pulp prices which should drive strong earnings Stock disappointed on earnings growth. growth in 2012 Vinda continues to improve its sales mix Ports Design Execution has been disappointing asVinda (China new store openings did not live up to through higher end tissue paper and (HK staples) has also entered the baby diaper discretionary) management’s guidance segment through a JV Competition from international brands Valuations are attractive at current had also affected its growth prices Examples of total new buys and complete sales in Oct 2011 – Jan 2012 This information should not be considered as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security. Source: UBS Global Asset Management
Top 10 stock overweightsAs of end March 2012 Company Fund (%) Benchmark (%) Active (%) Godrej 3.02 0.00 3.02 KT&G 4.71 1.83 2.88 Hengan 4.41 1.75 2.66 LG Household & Health 3.79 1.16 2.63 Belle International 4.49 1.96 2.54 Trinity 2.20 0.00 2.20 Li & Fung 5.20 3.06 2.15 LG Fashion 2.12 0.00 2.12 British American Tobacco 2.60 0.50 2.10 HDLF 1.97 0.00 1.97 This information should not be considered as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security Source: UBS Global Asset Management. Figures refer to UBS (Lux) Equity Fund – Asian Consumption
CharacteristicsAs of end Mar 2012 Portfolio Benchmark PE (FY1) 16.4 12.9 Price/Book 3.3 2.5 Dividend Yield 1.6 1.7 Price/Sales 1.4 1.0 RoE 21.3 18.4Based on Asian Consumption Fund 00577679 vs MSCI Asia ex Japan Consumer and Health Care Sectors Index (i.e. comprising of the consumer staples, consumer discretionary and healthcaresectors of MSCI Asia ex Japan)Source: Summit, UBS Global Asset Management
Industry-leading risk system - GRSNote: For illustrative purposes only. This information should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any securityTypical active risk data are indicative only. The actual active risk level will vary according to market conditions and our views. Active risk is an ex-ante forecast calculated using BARRA or othersuitable system based on the final valuations of the last working day of each month. Active risk levels are reported to clients on a quarterly basisSource: GRS, UBS Global Asset Management as of 30 March 2012.
Asia: Bright spot amidst weak global economic backdrop Asia to lead GDP Growth Asia does not face sovereign debt issues GDP Growth (% y/y) Government Debt (% of GDP) 9% 140 8% 2006-10 G7 7% 2011-15 120 Advanced 6% economies 100 5% 4% 80 World 3% 60 2% 1% 40 0% Asia ex Asia ex EM World US DM Euro 20 Japan Japan areaSource: CEIC estimates & World Economic Outlook, IMF, UBS IB research and estimates as of Nov 2011 0 1950 1959 1968 1977 1986 1995 2004 2013 World’s export powerhouses will pledge to boost their domestic consumption to keep the global economy churning. “…China, Germany, Korea and Indonesia, where public finances remain relatively strong … agree to take discretionary measures to support domestic demand as appropriate,” - draft statement debated by the G20 (3 Nov 2011) Domestic demand a key driver of growth
Rising income levels and 1 billion middle class consumers Asia ex Japan middle class¹ forecast to grow from 19% to 31% of total population in five years – From 570 mn (2010) to 1 bn (2015) – China, India, Indonesia account for ~90% of growthAsian middle class populationSource: Euromonitor, Morgan Stanley Research as of Aug 20111 Refers to middle income category earning an average per capita disposable income of USD 3,000 annually
Urbanisation trends and low debt support consumption growthMuch room for urbanization trend to continue Household debt can grow from its current lowin China, India, Indonesia base as receptivity to debt increasesUrbanisation ratio (%) Consumer loan as % of GDP 100 China Japan Korea Germany US India US 90 Indonesia Australia 80 UK 70 Malaysia 60 Taiwan Singapore 50 China, Indonesia (2010) 45% Korea 40 India Thailand Korea 30 Japan (2037E) China (1972) (1962) 20 India 10 Indonesia Philippines 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0 20 40 60 80 100Source: UN Population Statistics, GS Global ECS Research as of April 2011 Source: Euromonitor, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets as of Aug 2011 2010 data
Low penetration of consumer goods in AsiaLight vehicle ownership vs GDP per capita PC penetration (PCs per 1,000 population) 800 1,200 900 700 600 Light vehicle ownership / 1,000 New Zealand Australia 300 600 Japan 0 500 US Western Japan Worldwide Asia population Europe Pacific Source: Gartner Data, Goldman Sachs Research March 2011 400 Malaysia Korea 300 India Taiwan Pakistan 200 Vietnam Thailand Singapore 100 Philippines Indonesia Hong Kong China 0 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 Nominal GDP per capita (USD)Source: Ashwin Chotai, CEIC, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets as of Apr 2011
C:Program FilesUBSPresTemplatesPresPrintOnScreen.pot India: faces some challenges Inflation had been persistently high in 2011 Persistent high fiscal deficit (Fiscal years) 15% Headline WPI Non Food Inflation 0% RBIs Comfort Zone RBIs Comfort Zone -2% 10% -4% -6% 5% -8% -10% 0% -12% F2000 F2001 F2002 F2003 F2004 F2005 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 -5% Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Jul Mar Oct 05 05 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 11 11 Current account has deteriorated (Fiscal years) India is more vulnerable to capital outflows as it is the only country in AxJ to run a current account deficit3% Singapore 21%2% Malaysia1% Taiw an0% Hong Kong-1% Thailand-2% China Korea-3% Indonesia Current Account Balance, 4qtr-4% trailing sum , % of GDP India F2000 F2001 F2002 F2003 F2004 F2005 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: CSO, RBI, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research as of Dec 2011
China: rising incomes and moderating food inflation positive fordiscretionary consumptionConsumption expected to be an increasingly stronger driver of GDP growthChina final consumption expenditure as % of GDP70%60%50%40%30%20%10% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010% of urban households with annual net income >CNY 100,000 (Approx. USD 16,000) 14% 12.2% 12% Accelerated growth in high income 9.5% 10% households over past 5 years 7.5% 8% 6% 4.5% 4% 3.0% 2.1% 2% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: World Bank, CEIC, Nomura Research as of Jan 2012
Namit NayegandhiResearch Analyst, Global Emerging Markets and Asia Pacific Equities,Executive DirectorYears of investment industry experience: 13Education: St. Xaviers College (India), BA; K J Somaiya Institute of Management Studiesand Research (India), MBA Namit is a member of the Asia (ex-Japan) investment team, located in Singapore. As an analyst, he covers the regional consumer sector and is also Country Analyst for India focusing on Indian stocks in addition to some regional stocks. He is the Portfolio Manager for the Asian Consumption Fund and the India Country Fund. Prior to joining UBS in February 2006, Namit spent three years in private wealth management with JM Morgan Stanley, one of the largest Investment Banks in India. Prior to that, Namit worked as a research analyst at ICICI Bank and was instrumental in setting up its private wealth investment advisory business. He started his career as a sell side analyst covering the consumer sector in India.
Justin WellsEquity StrategistDirectorYears of investment industry experience: 7Education: Queen’s University of Belfast (UK), BA (Hons); Durham University (UK), LL.B (Hons) Justin Wells is an Equity Strategist for Emerging Market Equities, based in Zurich. He is responsible for representing the strategies managed by the EM Equities team in Zurich, including Global Emerging Markets, Latin America, Russia, and Central & Eastern Europe. Justin joined UBS Global Asset Management in 2007 initially as a Product Development Manager. He was responsible for coordinating the launch of the Global Emerging Market HALO fund and worked with the Equities team on the Long-Short initiative. He moved to his current role in August 2010. Prior to joining UBS, Justin worked in various roles within Equity Capital Markets, latterly as an Investment Advisor to the CIO of Shinsei Bank, Tokyo. Before pursuing a career in finance, Justin practiced as a Barrister in London for a number of years.
Asian Consumption CompositeSchedule of composite performanceThe composites past performance is not necessarily an indication of how it will perform in the future.