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Citiwire north september 2012 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. For professional use only – Not for Public distributionAberdeen Emerging Market DebtSeptember 2012Max Wolman, Portfolio Manager, Emerging Market DebtAberdeen Asset Management
  • 2. Our investment approach• Intensive, fundamental research is key• Having the confidence to take high conviction positions• Avoiding the distraction of short term volatility• Investing for the long term• Team based decision making Leaving no stone unturned 1
  • 3. The investment team Brett Diment Edwin Gutierrez Kevin Daly Viktor Szabo Esther Chan Max Wolman (21 years) (17 years) (23 years) (12 years) (9 years) (12 years) Siddharth Dahiya Andrew Stanners Anthony Simond Flora Sexton Ewa Gray Kathy Collins Debora Confortini (6 years) (12 years) (4 years) (4 years) (8 years) (4 years) (4 years) • Well resourced team • Broad range of specialist skills across the asset class • Strong research focus • Formal weekly portfolio review and six-weekly strategy meetings(-) denotes yearsindustry experience • Monthly meetings with emerging markets equity, global macro, US and Asian fixedSource: AberdeenAsset Management, income teams30 June 2012 Strong challenge culture 2
  • 4. Five steps to delivering alpha Portfolio Relative value Scenario forecasts Gauging market dynamics Fundamental research Risk Framework 3
  • 5. Sample of current positions % Index Portfolio Sovereign Corporate Sovereign Currency US$ US$ Local exposure bonds bonds bonds Brazil 7 6 1 3 2 2 China 3 2 1 1 1 Georgia 1 1 Indonesia 6 4 3 1 Ivory Coast 1 2 2 Lithuania 3 4 4 Malaysia 2 2 2 2 Mexico 6 15 9 1 5 5 Philippines 6 1 1 Qatar 2 2 Russia 6 6 3 3 S. Africa 4 7 3 4 1Source: Aberdeen AssetManagementPositions for the UAE 5 3 2Aberdeen EmergingMarkets Bond Fund, Uruguay 2 2 2 28 Aug 2012 Venezuela 4 6 6 4
  • 6. EMD 2012 outlook• Chinese growth will continue to moderate, consensus around 8% for 2012• Potential scope for further quantitative easing by both the Fed and ECB• Hard currency spreads remain attractive given low default risk• Selective exposure to EMFX and corporates offers further potential for outperformance• Inflows into EMD remain supportive as investors seek yield in ‘lower for longer’ world• Rising agricultural and oil prices may halt disinflationary trend• Risks: Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, stronger US economic data and China hard landing 5
  • 7. EMD yields stand out in ‘lower for longer’ world EM external, domestic and corporate indices are all investment grade Yield (%) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 EM Local Currency (BBB+) EM Corporates (BBB) EM Hard Currency (BBB-) US 10yr (AA+) Germany 10yr (AAA)EM Local currency index: JPM GBI-EM GD, EM Hard currency index: JPM EMBI GD, EM Corporate index: JPM CEMBI BDSource: JP Morgan, S&P, Bloomberg, 28 June 12 6
  • 8. Real yields yet to reflect dramatic improvement in fundamentals Country 10 year bond yield (%) Inflation yoy (%) Real yield Credit rating S&P Brazil 9.7 5.2 4.5 A- Colombia 6.6 3.0 3.6 BBB+ Russia 7.9 5.6 2.3 BBB+ Malaysia 3.4 1.6 1.8 A Hungary 7.4 5.6 1.8 BB+ South Africa 7.1 5.5 1.6 A Peru 4.5 3.3 1.3 BBB+ Indonesia 5.7 4.6 1.1 BB+ Mexico 5.4 4.3 1.0 A- Japan 0.8 -0.2 1.0 AA- Poland 4.9 4.3 0.6 A Thailand 3.2 2.7 0.5 A- US 1.7 1.7 0.0 AA+ Germany 1.4 1.7 -0.3 AAA UK 1.6 2.4 -0.8 AAA Turkey 8.2 9.1 -0.9 BBB-Source: S&P, Bloomberg, 9 Aug 12 7
  • 9. China: rebalancing is underway Real wage growth during the past decade Consumption on the rise Real salary Polynomial trend Consumption Investment Net export 350 100 Migrant workers monthly salary (CNY, 1978p) 90 300 80 70 250 60 200 50 40 150 30 20 100 10 50 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Source: Lu Feng, "Employment expansion and wage growth (2001 - 2010)", ChinaMacroeconomic Research Center, Peking University, Beijing, Feb 12 Source: CEIC, Barclays Capital, Feb 12 8
  • 10. Mexico: gaining export competitiveness vs China Hourly wage in manufacturing Mexican foreign direct flows on manufacturing % of world % of Latin % of total Latin Dollars China Mexico FDI* American American FDI on total FDI manufacturing 2.5 2007 0.61 11.06 33.47 2008 0.40 5.50 18.48 17.4% 2.0 2009 0.44 6.88 23.53 2010 0.92 10.27 28.47 1.5 237.9% 1.0 0.5 0.0 2009* 2010* 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008• The convergence in costs with China has led to an increase in market share and in foreign direct investment flows in manufacturing* Estimate for China * Mexican FDI on manufacturing as a percentage of total FDI flowsSource: ILO and INEGI, Feb 12 Source: OECD, ECLAC, UNCTAD and Central Banks, Feb 12 9
  • 11. South Africa: primed for take off*SAGB 6 ¾ 03/21 South African 10 Year Yield-to-Maturity* (%) Foreign Holdings of Mbonos 8.4 50% 8.00 Actual WGBI inclusion 8.2 8 45% 7.50 7.8 40% 7.00 7.6 7.4 35% 6.50 Announcement of WGBI inclusion 7.2 7 30% 6.00 6.8 25% 5.50 6.6 Foreign Holdings of Mbonos (%Total, LHS) 6.4 Mexican 10yr YTM (%, RHS) 01/12 02/12 03/12 04/12 05/12 06/12 07/12 20% 5.00 04/10 08/10 12/10 04/11 08/11 12/11 04/12Source: Citigroup;Bloomberg, 27 Jul 12;Banco de Mexico. • In October, South Africa will become the 23rd country to be admitted to the Citigroup World Government Bond Index (WGBI). It will join Poland, Malaysia and Mexico as the only Emerging Markets constituents. • AuM benchmarked against the WGBI is estimated to exceed US$2trn (with significant passive tracking in Europe and Japan), resulting in an estimated US$5bn inflow into the local market, representing over 5% of the total value of outstanding government bonds. • South Africa will have the highest average yield to maturity at 7.6% currently vs. 1.6% for index overall; compared to 3.4% for Malaysia, 4.7% for Poland, and 5.9% for Mexico. • Mexico’s entry into the WGBI coincided with a period of risk aversion which weighed heavily against its bonds’ yields for three months – subsequently on-going foreign buying has helped to reduce yields to record low rates. 10
  • 12. Lithuania: the Baltic solution works Real GDP Growth (%Change) Fiscal Deficit (%GDP) 0.0 15.0 -1.0 7.8 7.8 9.8 -0.5 -0.4 -1.0 10.0 -2.0 6.0 2.9 3.4 3.6 5.0 -3.0 -2.8 1.3 -3.3 -4.0 0.0 -5.0 -5.1 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 -10.0 -7.1 -8.0 -15.0 -14.7 -9.0 -10.0 -9.5 -20.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012F 2013F 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012F• The economy contracted by a cumulative 18% from the second quarter of 2008 to the end of 2009 as the country suffered from an unsustainable consumption and real estate boom• Output has since rebounded by a cumulative 15% in the two years ending in 2011. Export growth has been the main driver of the recovery, aided by strong economic growth in Lithuania’s main export partners – Russia, Germany and Poland• Significant nominal wage declines have also helped to restore competitiveness• Authorities have implemented significant budgetary restraint since 2009, mostly through a reduction in wages and social security expenditures – the fiscal consolidation has totalled approximately 12% of GDP• In 2012, the budget deficit is expected to be -2.8% of GDP and public debt is forecast to be 38.8% of GDP. Both of these figures are below the targets as set out by the Maastricht criteriaSource: Lithuania Ministry of Finance, Jan 12; IMF World Economic Outlook, Sep 11 11
  • 13. Searching for yield in Frontier Markets Ivory Coast Ghana Gabon Senegal Real GDP growth (%) 8.1 8.8 5.6 4.4 Fiscal balance (%GDP) -4.4 -4.9 5.1 -5.8 C/A balance (%GDP) -2.8 -6.9 11.7 -10.0 Total public debt (%GDP) 50.0 42.1 17.3 43.7 Eurobond yield-to-maturity (%) 8.44% 5.57% 4.20% 6.78% Rating (S&P/Moody’s/Fitch) NR/NR/NR B/NR/B+ BB-/NR/BB- B+/B1/NR Attractive yields (%) Ivory Coast 18 Senegal 16 Ghana 14 Gabon 12 10 8 6 4 2 May 10 Jul 10 Sep 10 Nov 10 Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, Apr 12; Figures are for 2012 forecasts. Bloomberg, 31 Jul 12. 12
  • 14. GCC: Uncorrelated safe haven GCC FX reserves are at an all-time high – providing the region with an unprecedented war chest Oil (US$/bbl) GCC Fx reserves (US$bn, rhs) 140 700 120 600 100 500 80 400 60 300 40 200 20 100 0 0 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012Source: Haver, IFS, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Dubai real GDP by economic sector – 2008 Dubai real GDP by economic sector – 2011 Oil Oil Other Other 2% 2% 12% Manufacturing Manufacturing 17% 11% 14% Financial Corporations 11% Financial Corporations 11% Construction Construction & Real Estate & Real Estate 31% 21% Trade, Hotels Trade, Hotels & Restaurants & Restaurants 33% 35%• Dubai reinvents itself post the construction boom.Source: Dubai Statistics Centre, Dubai EMTN prospectus, Haver, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, July 2012 13
  • 15. EMD solutionsEMD Plus – invests in hard currency sovereigns, quasi sovereigns and corporate bonds, localcurrency debt and FX• Pooled funds: Aberdeen Global – Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund ($2,073m) Aberdeen Emerging Markets Bond Fund ($64m)• Benchmark: JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified• AUM: $3,551mEMD Local Currency – invest primarily in local currency debt and FX• Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond Fund ($231m)• Benchmark: JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified• AUM: $3,240mEMD Core – invest primarily in hard currency sovereign and quasi sovereign bonds• No pooled fund• Benchmark: JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified• AUM: $1,913mEM Corporates – invest in hard currency corporate bonds• Pooled fund: Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund ($128m)• Benchmark: JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified• AUM: $800mAs of 31 August 2012 14
  • 16. Aberdeen Global – Select Emerging Markets Bond Fund Key fund facts as at 31 July 2012 Performance (Gross) Key facts % YTD 1 year Annualised Fund Size US$2.0 billion 3 years 5 years Launch Launch date 15 Aug 01 Fund 12.63 11.81 16.86 10.61 14.50 Investment Team Emerging Markets Bond Team Benchmark* 11.09 11.77 13.33 10.21 10.96 Benchmark JPM EMBI GD USD Difference +1.53 +0.04 +3.53 +0.40 +3.53 Number of holdings 133 * Benchmark: JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified % in top ten holdings 27.2% ISIN LU0132414144 Risk analysis 3 years Valoren 1292009 Tracking error 3.02 Annual Management Charge (AMC) 1.50% Information ratio 1.08 Share class A2 Acc Sharpe ratio 1.89 Total Expense Ratio (TER) 1.69% Fund domicile Luxembourg Performance (Gross) Fund (Gross) JPM EMBI GD USD 450 350 250 150Source: Aberdeen AssetManagers, BPSS,Datastream, Gross, USD, 50 Sep 01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 15
  • 17. Aberdeen Emerging Markets Bond Fund Key fund facts as at 31 July 2012 Performance (Gross) Key facts % YTD 1 year Annualised Fund Size £39.1million 3 years 5 years Launch Launch date 9 March 2011 Fund 12.17 10.41 - - 13.09 Investment Team Emerging Markets Bond Team Benchmark* 10.90 11.34 - - 12.90 JPM EMBI Global Diversified Benchmark (Hedged to GBP) Difference +1.28 -0.93 - - +0.19 * Benchmark: JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified (Hedged to GBP) Number of holdings 105 % in top ten holdings 27.3% Risk analysis Since inception ISIN GB00B5BV9P41 Tracking error 2.82 Bloomberg ABEEBAA LN Information ratio 0.10 Annual Management Charge (AMC) 1.50% Sharpe ratio 1.39 Share class A Acc Total Expense Ratio (TER) 1.87% Fund domicile UK Performance (Gross) Fund (Gross) JPM EMBI GD USD 120 115 110 105Source: Aberdeen AssetManagers, BPSS, 100Datastream, Gross, USD, 95 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 16
  • 18. Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond Fund Key fund facts as at 31 July 2012 Performance (Gross) Key facts % YTD 1 year Annualised Fund Size US$230.1 million 2 years 5 years Launch Launch date 6 April 10 Fund 9.44 -1.39 6.20 -- 6.49 Investment Team Emerging Markets Bond Team Benchmark* 9.38 -0.85 6.76 -- 6.93 Benchmark JPM GBI-EM GD Difference +0.06 -0.54 -0.56 -- -0.45 Number of holdings 57 * Benchmark: JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified % in top ten holdings 41.6% ISIN LU0396317926 Risk analysis Since launch Valoren 4983937 Tracking error 1.76 Annual Management Charge (AMC) 1.50% Information ratio -0.22 Share class A2 Acc Sharpe ratio 0.44 Total Expense Ratio (TER) 1.75% Fund domicile Luxembourg Performance (Gross) Fund (Gross) JPM GBI-EM GD USD 130 120 110 100Source: Aberdeen AssetManagers, BPSS,Datastream, Gross, USD 90 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 17
  • 19. Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund Key fund facts as at 31 July 2012 Performance (Gross) Key facts % 3 months 6 months YTD 1 year Launch** Fund Size US$120.3 million Launch date 30 Dec 10 Fund 2.98 7.64 11.31 6.53 8.21 Investment Team Emerging Markets Bond Team Benchmark* 3.25 6.64 9.31 6.63 7.33 Benchmark JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified Difference -0.28 +1.00 +2.01 -0.10 +0.87 * Benchmark: JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Number of holdings 111 ** Annualised % in top ten holdings 16.2% ISIN LU0566480116 Risk analysis Since launch Valoren 12575568 Tracking error 3.57 Annual Management Charge (AMC) 1.50% Information ratio 0.31 Share class A2 Acc Sharpe ratio 0.76 Total Expense Ratio (TER) 1.81% Fund domicile Luxembourg Performance (Gross) Fund (Gross) JPM CEMBI BD 120 110 100Source: Aberdeen AssetManagers, BPSS,Datastream, Gross, USD 90 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 18
  • 20. About Aberdeen Asset Management Total assets under management $286.5bn • Aberdeen is an LSE listed* asset management company Money Market 5% - Sole focus on our clients portfolios and Property 10% Equities their interests 51% Aberdeen • Global reach and local understanding Solutions 13% - 30 offices and over 500 investment professionals worldwide Fixed Income 21% - Investors based in all the key regions in which we invest, providing strong local knowledge Total emerging market assets $100.4bn** • Core investment expertise in emerging markets across both fixed income and equities Asian Debt $2.6bn • Transparent investment processes - As fundamental investors, our investment Asian Equities Emerging Market decisions are based on our own research $37.4bn Equities $52.6bn* Since 1991** Specialist mandatesSource: Aberdeen Asset Emerging MarketManagement, 30 Jun 12 Debt $7.8bn 19
  • 21. Emerging Markets Debt teamLondonBrett Diment, Emerging Market & Sovereign Debt Max Wolman, Portfolio ManagerBrett joined Aberdeen via the acquisition of Deutsche Asset Max joined Aberdeen in 2001 from Liontrust Asset ManagementManagements London and Philadelphia fixed income businesses in initially working as a currency dealer. In 2002, Max moved to the2005. He held the same role at Deutsche Asset Management from emerging market debt team as an assistant portfolio manager to focus1999. Brett joined Deutsche Asset Management in 1991 as a graduate on developing local currency bond and foreign exchange investments.and started researching emerging markets in1995. Brett graduated More recently Max has been specialising in emerging market corporatewith a BSc from the London School of Economics. bonds having helped develop the corporate bond investment process. Max graduated with a BA (Hons) in Business Management and is aEdwin Gutierrez, Portfolio Manager CFA Charterholder.Edwin joined Aberdeen following the acquisition of Deutsche AssetManagements London and Philadelphia fixed income businesses in Esther Chan, Portfolio Manager2005. He held the same role at Deutsche Asset Management, joining Esther joined the Singapore office of Aberdeen in 2005. In Singapore,in 2000. Previously, Edwin worked as an emerging debt portfolio she was a member of the Asian fixed income team, first as a creditmanager at Invesco Asset Management and as a Latin American analyst in financials and corporates, then as a portfolio manager. Sheeconomist at LGT Asset Management. Edwin graduated with an MSc moved to London in 2007, joining the emerging market debt teamfrom Georgetown University. where she specialises in managing corporate bonds. Prior to that, she worked as a analyst in corporate finance advising companiesKevin Daly, Portfolio Manager undergoing debt restructuring in Jakarta, Indonesia. Esther has a LLBKevin joined Aberdeen in April 2007 having spent the previous 10 (Hons) from University College London and is a CFA Charterholder.years at Standard & Poors in London and Singapore. During that timeKevin worked as a credit market analyst covering global emerging Viktor Szabó, Portfolio Managerdebt, and was head of origination for Global Sovereign Ratings. Kevin Viktor joined Aberdeen in July 2009 following the acquisition of certainwas a regular participant on the Global Sovereign Ratings Committee, asset management businesses from Credit Suisse Asset Management.and was one of the initial members of the Emerging Market Council, Previously, Viktor worked for Credit Suisse Asset Managementformed in 2006 to advise senior management on business and market Hungary as country chief investment officer. Prior to that, he workeddevelopments in emerging markets. Kevin graduated with a BA in for the National Bank of Hungary as the head of market analysis team.English Literature from the University of California, Los Angeles. Viktor holds an MSc in Economics from the Corvinus University of Budapest. Viktor is a CFA charterholder. 20
  • 22. Emerging Markets Debt teamLondon (continued)Siddharth Dahiya, Credit Analyst Anthony Simond, Investment AnalystSiddharth joined Aberdeen in June 2010 working as a credit risk Anthony is an investment analyst on the EMD team, where he covers aanalyst for the counterparty risk team. Previously, he worked for range of frontier markets including Belarus, Georgia, Serbia, Vietnam,four years at ICICI Bank UK plc in London. He was part of the Mongolia, Egypt and Ecuador. Anthony joined the Aberdeen graduatetreasury investment team focussing on Indian bond investments. He scheme in 2008, completing placements in different areas of thestarted his career at ICICI with the corporate finance team focussing business including the Pan European equities and Global equitieson cross-border M&A. Sid completed a post-graduate degree in team, before joining the EMD team in 2009. Anthony graduated with abusiness management from the Indian Institute of Management, BA (Honours) in Classics from the University of Bristol.Lucknow in 2006. Prior to that he completed a Bachelors degree Flora Sexton, Dealer(Honours) in Electronics & Electrical Engineering from Punjab Flora is responsible for dealing in emerging market corporate debt.Engineering College, India. She joined Aberdeen in 2011 from Paternoster where she was anAndrew Stanners, Dealer and Portfolio Analyst investment analyst on the fixed income portfolio. Flora graduated withAndrew is a Trader and Portfolio Analyst on the EMD team. Andrew a BA (Hons) in History from Trinity College Dublin.joined Aberdeen via the acquisition of Deutsche Asset Kathy Collins, Junior Credit AnalystManagements London and Philadelphia fixed income businesses in Kathy is a corporate analyst on the emerging market debt team. Kathy2005. Andrew held a similar role at Deutsche Asset Management, joined Aberdeen in June 2009 on the RFP team before joining thewhich he re-joined in 2004 following a short appointment as an graduate scheme in October 2010. Previously, Kathy completed a yearanalyst at Cheyne Capital. Andrew initially joined Deutsche Asset long internship at Standard Chartered Private Bank in New York asManagement in 2001. Andrew graduated with a BA joint honours in part of the Mountbatten Internship Programme. Kathy graduated withEconomics and Economic History from York University. an MSc in Economics from St. Andrews University.Ewa Gray, Portfolio AnalystEwa worked as head of liquidity controllers within our treasury São Paolodepartment where she was responsible for managing a team of 6people, responsible for instructing FX trades and placing cash out in Debora Confortini, Credit Analystvarious money market instruments for yield curve pick up as well as Debora is a credit analyst on the emerging market debt team, and ismanaging the daily collateral merging for OTC derivatives. Ewa based in Brazil. Debora joined Aberdeen in 2012 from Standard &joined Aberdeen via the acquisition of Deutsche Asset Poor’s Ratings Service where she was a ratings specialist. DeboraManagements London and Philadelphia fixed income businesses in graduated with a BA in Accounting & Finance from the University of2005. Ewa graduated with BSc (Hons) in Mathematics with São Paulo.Business Management from Queen Mary University in 2003. 21
  • 23. For professional use onlyNot for public distribution• Past performance is not a guide to future results. The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and your clients may get back less than the amount invested• The views expressed in this presentation should not be construed as advice on how to construct a portfolio or whether to buy, retain or sell a particular investment. The information contained in the presentation is for exclusive use by professional customers/eligible counterparties (ECPs) and not the general public. The information is being given only to those persons who have received this document directly from Aberdeen Asset Management (AAM) and must not be acted or relied upon by persons receiving a copy of this document other than directly from AAM. No part of this document may be copied or duplicated in any form or by any means or redistributed without the written consent of AAM• The information contained herein including any expressions of opinion or forecast have been obtained from or is based upon sources believed by us to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to the accuracy or completeness• Issued by Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the United Kingdom 22