Ci062755 citywire event brighton final approved

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Ci062755 citywire event brighton final approved

  1. 1. ENHANCING RETURNS THROUGH ACTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT 12 - 13 September 2013 Peter Fitzgerald – Head of Multi-asset Retail This document is for financial advisers only. It is not to be viewed by or used with retail clients.
  2. 2. TEAM AND FUNDS 2
  3. 3. MULTI-ASSET RETAIL TEAM £28BN* AUM Peter Fitzgerald Head of MAF Retail, CFA Multi-Asset Funds Multi-Manager Strategic Asset Allocation Multi-Asset Implementation Multi-Asset Investment Risk Cyclical Asset Allocation UK Equities Emerging Market Debt European Sovereigns Currencies Investment Grade Credit SRI Equity Global Convertible Bonds Hedge Funds High Yield Equity High Yield Credit REITs Irish Equities Asia Pacific Equities CommoditiesCash Funds UK PropertyEuropean Equity Global Equity Emerging Market Equities Inflation Linkers Using specialists to manage global portfolios with global resources 3 Gavin Counsell Fund Manager, FIA Nick Samouilhan Fund Manager, PhD CFA FRM External PassiveExternal Active Andrew Ridgers Senior Product Specialist Andrzej Pioch Fund Manager *Source: Aviva Investors as at 31 July 2013
  4. 4. MISSION PORTFOLIOS NUMBER OF FUNDS Risk Targeted Return Targeted 5 3 4
  5. 5. INVESTMENT THEMES 5
  6. 6. ARE WE COMING OUT OF THE EQUITY BEAR MARKET? 6 (S0202) Daily Data 3/31/1900 - 8/28/2013 (Log Scale) Secular Bull Markets DJIA Nominal Annualized Gain (GPA) Dates GPA 3/31/1900 - 1/19/1906 8. 0 8/24/1921 - 9/3/1929 24. 9 4/28/1942 - 2/9/1966 10. 5 8/12/1982 - 1/14/2000 16. 8 Secular Bear Markets DJIA Nominal Annualized Gain (GPA) Dates GPA 1/19/1906 - 8/24/1921 -1. 1 9/3/1929 - 4/28/1942 -10. 6 2/9/1966 - 8/12/1982 -1. 5 1/14/2000 - 8/28/2013? 1. 7 Shaded Areas Indicate Secular Bear Markets 8/28/2013 = 14824.51 Source: IDC25 36 52 75 108 156 226 326 472 682 986 1425 2060 2977 4304 6222 8994 13002 25 36 52 75 108 156 226 326 472 682 986 1425 2060 2977 4304 6222 8994 13002 Secular Bull Markets DJIA Real Annualized Gain (GPA) Dates GPA 3/31/1900 - 1/19/1906 6. 5 8/24/1921 - 9/3/1929 26. 1 4/28/1942 - 2/9/1966 7. 3 8/12/1982 - 1/14/2000 13. 2 Secular Bear Markets DJIA Real Annualized Gain (GPA) Dates GPA 1/19/1906 - 8/24/1921 -5. 4 9/3/1929 - 4/28/1942 -10. 1 2/9/1966 - 8/12/1982 -7. 9 1/14/2000 - 8/28/2013? -0. 7 DJIA Adjusted Using Quarterly Consumer Price Index 8/28/2013 = 548.92 28 34 41 49 58 70 84 100 120 144 172 207 247 297 355 426 510 612 733 28 34 41 49 58 70 84 100 120 144 172 207 247 297 355 426 510 612 733 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. Secular Trends Inflation-Adjusted Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. Secular Trends Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. .www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/. For data vendor disclaimers refer towww.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at © Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
  7. 7. US EQUITIES VS US GOVERNMENT BONDS 7 Monthly Data 12/31/1926 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale) 7/31/2013 = 18.5 Ratio: S&P 500 Total Return Index / Barclays Long-Term Treasury Bond Total Return Index* *Ibbotson data prior to 1973. 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.3 5.7 7.6 10.0 13.1 17.3 22.9 30.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.3 5.7 7.6 10.0 13.1 17.3 22.9 30.2 Stock/Bond Relative Performance (AA032) -3.0 Std Dev 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserv .www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/. For data vendor disclaimers refer towww.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at © Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
  8. 8. DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES VS EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES 8 Daily Data 2/13/1992 - 8/27/2013 (Log Scale) 8/27/2013 = 93.5 Dow JonesWorld Ratio Dev. Emg. % 30-Day PercentChange: GPA GPA GPA of Time Above3% 24.0 13.7 41.0 33.2 Between-1% and 3% 7.2 7.0 14.7 35.1 * -1% and Below -28.2 -5.1 -31.8 31.7 Buy/Hold -0.9 5.1 4.2 100.0 Source: Dow Jones Indexes42 45 49 53 57 62 67 73 79 85 92 99 107 116 126 136 147 159 42 45 49 53 57 62 67 73 79 85 92 99 107 116 126 136 147 159 1997 2002 2007 2012 Dow Jones Emerging Markets Index / Dow Jones Developed Markets Index (AVIV200) 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. .www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/. For data vendor disclaimers refer towww.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at © Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
  9. 9. US EQUITIES 9 Monthly Data 12/31/1974 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale) MSCI U.S. Index / MSCI World ex. U.S. Index (in U.S. Dollars) 7/31/2013 = 92.8 Source: MSCI28 35 43 53 66 82 102 126 28 35 43 53 66 82 102 126 M+1+2-1-2-3 DashedLines=StdDev Scale=%Points U.S. Earnings Yield Minus World ex. U.S. Earnings Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean 7/31/2013 = -1.11 High Reading = Market Inexpensive Low Reading = Market Expensive -4 -2 0 2 4 -4 -2 0 2 4 M+1-1-2 DashedLines=StdDev Scale=%Points U.S. Dividend Yield Minus World ex. U.S. Dividend Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean 7/31/2013 = -1.25 -2 -1 0 1 2 -2 -1 0 1 2 U.S. Book Value Yield Minus World ex. U.S. Book Value Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean U.S. / World ex. U.S. Relative Valuation Metrics (AVIV200) 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. .www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/. For data vendor disclaimers refer towww.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at © Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
  10. 10. EUROPEAN EQUITIES 10 Monthly Data 12/31/1974 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale) Austria Italy Belgium Netherlands Denmark Norway Finland Portugal France Spain Germany Sweden Greece Switzerland Ireland MSCI Europe ex. U.K. Index / MSCI World ex. U.K. Index (in U.S. Dollars) 7/31/2013 = 114.0 Source: MSCI69 79 91 104 119 136 156 179 69 79 91 104 119 136 156 179 M+1+2-1-2-3 DashedLines=StdDev Scale=%Points Europe ex. U.K. Earnings Yield Minus World ex. U.K. Earnings Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean 7/31/2013 = -0.53 High Reading = Market Inexpensive Low Reading = Market Expensive -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 M+1+2+3-1 DashedLines=StdDev Scale=%Points Europe ex. U.K. Dividend Yield Minus World ex. U.K. Dividend Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean 7/31/2013 = 0.21 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 Europe ex. U.K. Book Value Yield Minus World ex. U.K. Book Value Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean Europe ex. U.K. / World ex. U.K. Relative Valuation Metrics (AVIV2010) 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. .www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/. For data vendor disclaimers refer towww.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at © Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
  11. 11. LATIN AMERICAN EQUITIES 11 Monthly Data 9/30/1995 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale) Emerging Markets Latin America Constituents: Brazil Mexico Chine Peru Colombia MSCI Emerging Mkts Latin America Index / MSCI World Index (in U.S. Dollars) 7/31/2013 = 209.0 Source: MSCI52 64 79 98 122 151 188 233 289 359 445 552 52 64 79 98 122 151 188 233 289 359 445 552 M+1+2+3+4-1 DashedLines=StdDev Scale=%Points Emerging Mkts Latin America Earnings Yield Minus World Earnings Yield Relative to 17.9-Year Mean 7/31/2013 = -1.74 High Reading = Market Inexpensive Low Reading = Market Expensive -2 0 2 4 6 -2 0 2 4 6 M+1+2+3-1-2 DashedLines=StdDev Scale=%Points Emerging Mkts Latin America Dividend Yield Minus World Dividend Yield Relative to 17.9-Year Mean 7/31/2013 = 0.10 -1 0 1 2 3 -1 0 1 2 3 Emerging Mkts Latin America / World Relative Valuation Metrics (AVIV16000) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. .www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/. For data vendor disclaimers refer towww.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at © Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
  12. 12. EMERGING EUROPEAN EQUITIES 12 Monthly Data 8/31/1996 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale) Emerging Markets Eastern Europe Country Constituents: Czech Republic Poland Hungary Russia MSCI Emerging Mkts Eastern Europe Index / MSCI World Index (in U.S. Dollars) 7/31/2013 = 12.2 Source: MSCI3 5 7 10 13 19 27 38 3 5 7 10 13 19 27 38 M+1+2+3-1 DashedLines=StdDev Scale=%Points Emerging Mkts Eastern Europe Earnings Yield Minus World Earnings Yield Relative to 17.0-Year Mean 7/31/2013 = 6.56 High Reading = Market Inexpensive Low Reading = Market Expensive -4 0 4 8 12 16 -4 0 4 8 12 16 M+1+2+3-1 DashedLines=StdDev Scale=%Points Emerging Mkts Eastern Europe Dividend Yield Minus World Dividend Yield Relative to 16.9-Year Mean 7/31/2013 = 1.77 0 1 2 0 1 2 Emerging Mkts Eastern Europe / World Relative Valuation Metrics (AVIV20000) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. .www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/. For data vendor disclaimers refer towww.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at © Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
  13. 13. EMERGING ASIA EQUITIES 13 Monthly Data 9/30/1995 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale) Emerging Markets Asia Country Constituents: China Korea Philippines India Malaysia Taiwan Indonesia Pakistan Thailand MSCI Emerging Mkts Asia Index / MSCI World Index (in U.S. Dollars) 7/31/2013 = 27.6 Source: MSCI11 15 19 24 30 39 50 63 11 15 19 24 30 39 50 63 M+1-1-2-3 DashedLines=StdDev Scale=%Points Emerging Mkts Asia Earnings Yield Minus World Earnings Yield Relative to 17.9-Year Mean 7/31/2013 = 1.49 High Reading = Market Inexpensive Low Reading = Market Expensive -4 -2 0 2 -4 -2 0 2 M+1+2-1 DashedLines=StdDev Scale=%Points Emerging Mkts Asia Dividend Yield Minus World Dividend Yield Relative to 17.9-Year Mean 7/31/2013 = 0.01 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 Emerging Mkts Asia / World Relative Valuation Metrics (AVIV21000) 7/31/2013 = 1.72 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. .www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/. For data vendor disclaimers refer towww.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at © Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
  14. 14. US INVESTMENT GRADE BONDS 14 Daily Data 1/03/2000 - 8/27/2013 (Log Scale) Barclays U.S. Corporate Credit ( ) 10-Year Treasury Note Yield 8/27/2013 = 2.72% ( ) 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.7 6.5 7.5 8.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.7 6.5 7.5 8.5 Mean = 135 In Basis Points Investment Grade Spread (U.S. Corporate Credit minus 10-Year Treasurys) 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 Investment Grade Corporate Spreads (B333A) 104 104 2000 M J S D 2001 M J S D 2002 M J S D 2003 M J S D 2004 M J S D 2005 M J S D 2006 M J S D 2007 M J S D 2008 M J S D 2009 M J S D 2010 M J S D 2011 M J S D 2012 M J S D 2013 M J Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Res .www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/. For data vendor disclaimers refer towww.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at © Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
  15. 15. US HIGH YIELD BONDS 15 Daily Data 1/03/2000 - 8/27/2013 (Log Scale) Barclays High Yield Corporate Bond Yield ( ) 10-Year Treasury Note Yield 8/27/2013 = 2.72% ( ) Source: Federal Reserve Board 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 14 20 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 14 20 Mean = 578 In Basis Points High Yield Spread (High Yield minus 10-Year Treasurys) 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 High Yield Corporate Spreads (B334A) 135 135 2000 M J S D 2001 M J S D 2002 M J S D 2003 M J S D 2004 M J S D 2005 M J S D 2006 M J S D 2007 M J S D 2008 M J S D 2009 M J S D 2010 M J S D 2011 M J S D 2012 M J S D 2013 M J Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Re .www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/. For data vendor disclaimers refer towww.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at © Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
  16. 16. DEBT WORRY 16 Quarterly Data 12/31/1922 - 3/31/2013 (Log Scale) (E501A) 386.27 3/31/2013 Debt = $57.045 Trillion 3/31/2013 GDP = $16.005 Trillion = 356.4% Annual interpolated GDP (including estimates prior to 1929) used prior to 1946. Domestic Nonfinancial Debt used prior to 1951. As of December, 1951 Domestic Nonfinancial Debt represented 98.5% of Total Credit Market Debt.Source: Department of Commerce 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335 340 345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335 340 345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Total Credit Market Debt as a % of GDP Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. .www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/. For data vendor disclaimers refer towww.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at © Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
  17. 17. MISSION PORTFOLIOS 17 Aviva Investors Multi-asset Fund III Aviva Investors Multi-Manager 40-85% Shares Fund TOP FIVE HOLDINGS % NAV AXA FRAMLINGTON UK SELECT OPP 10.1 INVESTEC SPECIAL SITUATIONS MANDATE 10.0 ARTEMIS INCOME FUND 9.1 ODEY EUROPEAN INCOME 6.0 HERMES US SMID EQUITY 5.8 TOP FIVE HOLDINGS % NAV BLACKROCK NORTH AMER EQ TRACKER 31.1 BLACKROCK CONT EUROPE EQ TRACKER 10.2 RIVER ROAD US EQTY INCOME 7.9 BLACKROCK EMER MKTS EQ TRACKER 6.1 BLACKROCK JAPAN EQUITY TRACKER 6.1 Source: Aviva Investors as at 29 August 2013 – No part of this document is intended to constitute advice or recommendations of any nature. Past performance is not a guide to the future. Equity 80% Fixed Income 9% Alternative Assets 5% Cash 6% Equity 76% Fixed Income 10% Alternative Assets 11% Cash 3%
  18. 18. MISSION PORTFOLIOS Funds 1 year performance % 3 year performance % 1 year standard deviation 1 year Sharpe Ratio Ongoing Charge Figure % Aviva Investors Multi-asset Fund III SC4* 13.86 - 8.13 1.58 1.13 Aviva Investors Multi- Manager 40-85% Shares Fund SC2 18.52 9.83** 8.88 1.51 1.62 18 Source: Morningstar as at 29/8/13 net of fees, Aviva Investors Multi-asset Fund III is share class 4 and Aviva Investors Multi-Manager 40-85% Shares Fund is Share Class 2 (bought via platform). Past performance is not a guide to the future. • Launched on the 6 February 2012 ** Since fund manager inception 1 August 2011
  19. 19. IMPORTANT INFORMATION CI062755 09/2013 19 This document is intended for financial advisers only. It is not to be viewed by or used with retail clients.. Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors as at 31 August 2013 Any future returns and opinions expressed are based on the internal forecasts of Aviva Investors and should not be relied upon as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors. No part of this document is intended to constitute advice or recommendations of any nature. Past performance is not a guide to the future. The value of assets are subject to market fluctuations and can move irrationally and be unpredictably affected by many and various factors including political and economic events and rumours and as such the value of investments may go down as well as up and your clients may receive less than the original amount invested. There can be no assurance that these Funds will meet their investment objectives or that they will stay within their target volatility ranges. As the Funds will be subject to short-term market fluctuations and they aim, on average, to reflect investor risk profiles, over any three year period, they should be viewed as medium to long-term investments. As these Funds may invest outside of the UK in assets denominated in currencies other than sterling, any currency exchange rate movement may cause the value of an investment to fall as well as rise. For further information please read the latest Key Investor Information Document and Supplementary Information Document. The full Prospectus and the annual and interim reports are also available on request. Copies can be obtained, in English, from Aviva Investors UK Fund Services Limited, No. 1 Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ or by contacting our Relationship Management Team – Aviva Investors UK Fund Sales on 0800 015 4773 or email them on fund&salessupport@aviva.co.uk. Investment in the Mission Portfolios range of funds is provided by Aviva Investors UK Fund Services Limited, the Authorised Fund Manager. Throughout the document Aviva Investors refers to Aviva Global Services Limited, the Investment Manager. The Investment Manager manages the funds(s) on a daily basis making and implementing all portfolio decisions. Issued by Aviva Investors UK Fund Services Limited, the Authorised Fund Manager. Registered in England No. 1973412. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Firm Reference No. 119310. Registered address: No 1. Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ. An Aviva company. www.avivainvestors.co.uk

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