20130620 cologne ld_de_en

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20130620 cologne ld_de_en

  1. 1. 111CitywireCologne, 20 – 21 June 2013
  2. 2. 222Head of the European Equities TeamLaurent Ducoin
  3. 3. 333Europe is at the heart of our foundationSource: Carmignac Gestion, 31/05/20135107706054269478InnovationEuropeCommodities andGoldEmerging Privileged access to companies’ key decision makers Our global approach provides a sound angle to our analysis of Europeancompanies1997CarmignacEuro-Patrimoine1998CarmignacEuro-Entrepreneurs1999CarmignacGrande Europe1989Carmignac InvestissementCarmignac PatrimoineInvestment theme breakdownat Carmignac Gestion in Euros millions
  4. 4. 444Our European Fund Range:synergies and complementarityThree way to take advantage of opportunities in EuropeCarmignacEuro-EntrepreneursCarmignacGrande EuropeCarmignacEuro-PatrimoineEach fund has its owncriteriaLarge and Mid-CapFundDiversified FundSmall and Mid-capFund
  5. 5. 555Investment Philosophy & Process
  6. 6. 666The European team: Who are we? Head of the European team– portfolio manager Covers industry, services,technologies, media and leisure Joined Carmignac Gestion in 2011LAURENT DUCOIN13 years experience Portfolio manager Covers consumer goods and telecoms Joined Carmignac Gestion in 2010 Portfolio manager Covers healthcare, utilities,materials, oil and gas Joined Carmignac Gestion in 2008SAMIR ESSAFRI9 years experienceFRANCOIS-JOSEPH FURRY11 years experience Analyst Cross-sector Joined Carmignac Gestion in 2012MARKUS KULESSA6 years experience
  7. 7. 777A team within the teamCONTINUOUSINTERACTIONBETWEENTEAMSSamir ESSAFRIFund ManagerLaurent DUCOINHead of TeamFund ManagerFrançois-Joseph FURRYFund ManagerMarkus KULESSACross-sector AnalystEUROPEAN EXPERTISEMACRO ECONOMIC EXPERTISEEdouard CARMIGNACChairmanFund ManagerFrédéric LEROUXGlobal managerMacro economic strategyand derivatives instrumentsLaurent CHEBANIERAnalystCountry RiskJulien CHERONQuantitative AnalystTim JAKSLANDAnalystInnovation SectorSPECIFIC EXPERTISESimon PICKARDFund ManagerEmerging marketsDavid FIELDFund ManagerCommoditiesMatthew WILLIAMSAnalystFinancial SectorAntoine COLONNAAnalystConsumer SectorNumerous synergies within the investment team enable us tocover the entire investment universe
  8. 8. 888Idea generation: All team members are financial analystsFour of Carmignac Grande Europe’s positionsSource: Carmignac Gestion, 31/05/2013Erste BankAB InbevSeadrillNovo NordiskFinanceConsumerstaplesEnergyHealthcareLarge capsLarge capsLarge capsLarge caps
  9. 9. 999Our management principlesA successful investmentstrategy focuses on bothtop-down and bottom-upfactorsOn-the-ground research is key:33 meetings/month and 396meetings/year in averageBeing fully exposed to equitymarkets require strong riskcontrol & active managementto avoid extreme outcomesand mitigate volatilityBest ideas are often simple:pragmatism is a major sourceof outperformance
  10. 10. 101010European Equity Fund Range: Investment processSTOCK-PICKINGQualitative analysis of sectorsand geographic areasDETERMINING THE COREMACROECONOMIC SCENARIOINVESTMENT UNIVERSEPORTFOLIOTACTICAL EXPOSUREMANAGEMENTFILTEREDUNIVERSEANALYSISBOTTOM-UPANALYSISTOP-DOWN
  11. 11. 111111Our investment process: quest for structural growthStructural GrowthSuccessfulstrategicpositioningQualitymanagementValuation(Free Cash FlowYield)Portfolio50-60 stocks
  12. 12. 121212Carmignac Grande EuropeStock Picking and Portfolio Construction
  13. 13. 131313Carmignac Grande Europe: Our investment disciplineThe weighting reflects the strength of the fund managers’convictionsCONCENTRATION 58 positions in the portfolioWEIGHTING Core portfolio securities between 2% and 5% Securities in the satelliteportfolio between 1% and 2%LIQUIDITY A very liquid fund : 90% of theportfolio can be liquidated in2 days05101520250-0,5 0,5-1 1-1,5 1,5-2 2-2,5 2,5-3 >31221151035Source: Carmignac Gestion, 31/05/2013NumberofstocksWeighting in the portfolio (in %)Carmignac Grande Europe
  14. 14. 1414140%5%10%15%20%25%30%Evolution of our themes since Laurent Ducoin’s arrivalSource: Carmignac Gestion, 31/05/2013Oil & GasTechnologyCons. GoodsBasic MaterialsHealthcareCons. ServicesFinancialsIndustrials
  15. 15. 151515The main axis of our stock pickingCompanies exposedto EmergingcountriesEnergy andmaterialsInnovationEnd of Systemicrisk in EuropeUS Real EstateMarketConsumerDiscretionaryCyclicalinvestmentSeach of Yield
  16. 16. 161616The main axis of our stock pickingCompanies exposedto EmergingcountriesEnergy andmaterialsInnovationEnd of Systemicrisk in EuropeUS Real EstateMarketConsumerDiscretionaryCyclicalinvestmentSeach of Yield
  17. 17. 171717Carmignac Grande Europe: Thematic BreakdownSource:Carmignac Gestion,31/05/2013Search of yield 7.2Cyclical investment 7.9Emerging markets exposure 16.1Energy & materials 8.9End of systemic risk in Europe 18.0Consumer Discretionary 8.9US Real Estate Market 4.5Innovation 20.531/05/2013Global Brands 8.0
  18. 18. 181818How we put this intopractise ?
  19. 19. 191919European consumption stocks ​​are well positioned tobenefit from the rebalancing of the global economy*Source: Crédit Suisse and Carmignac Gestion, average over 2010 and2011 on defensive and discretionary consumption stocks A third of Europe’s largest capitalisations in the consumer sector Our global investment strategy is now more than ever focused on segment championsBreakdown of organic growth between emerging and developedmarkets for the main consumption stocks in EuropeOrganic growth fromdeveloped marketsOrganic growth fromemerging markets
  20. 20. 202020Volvo Trucks, a « best-in class »Quality exposure to industrial cycle and strong cost cutting storyPRODUCT RANGE Superior positioning in Trucks and Construction Equipment Strong product momentum in the Truck division, new engine technologiesintroductionTHE RIGHT GEOGRAPHIES Critical size in key Emerging markets (China, Brazil, India) Powerful play on industrial investment rebound in the US and ChinaFUNDAMENTALS Convincing restructring plan focusing on structural improvement ofmargins and further leveraging the group’s scale effect Strong management teamCyclicalinvestments
  21. 21. 21212180859095100105110115120125130Carmignac Grande Europe:3-year performancePast performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Performance may vary over time.Source: Morningstar, Carmignac Gestion, 31/05/2013Base 100: 31/05/2010CarmignacGrande EuropeA EUR acc+17.06%Reference indicator*+25.17%*Stoxx 600 NR (EUR)From 01/01/2013, the equity index reference indicators are calculated net dividends reinvested.3-year volatilityFund: 9.8%Reference indicator*: 12.6%Assets undermanagement at30 May 2013:€328.31 MnLaurent Ducoin’s arrival3-year performance
  22. 22. 222222Carmignac Euro-EntrepreneursStock Picking and Portfolio Construction
  23. 23. 232323Carmignac Euro-Entrepreneurs:Our investment disciplineThe weighting reflects the strength of our convictionsCONCENTRATION 62 positions in the portfolioWEIGHTING Quality companies between 1% and 4% Special cases” and “highfree cash flows but cyclical” between 0.5% and 1.5%LIQUIDITY A very liquid fund : 90% of theportfolio can be liquidated in3 days0246810121416180-0,5 0,5-1 1-1,5 1,5-2 2-2,5 2,5-3 >3361718142 2Source: Carmignac Gestion, 31/05/2013NumberofstocksWeighting in the portfolio (in %)Carmignac Euro-Entrepreneurs
  24. 24. 242424 Small and mid caps: framework Larger investment universe Stronger growth profile Management focused on long term value creation Opportunities Less market efficiency (coverage, liquidity) Marginal innovation potentially has a stronger impact on growth What we pay specific attention to Quality LiquiditySmall and mid caps deserve special considerationBest segment for pure alpha generation over the long term
  25. 25. 252525Carmignac Euro-Entrepreneurs:Thematic BreakdownSource: Carmignac Gestion31/05/2013Cyclical investment 5,4Companies exposedto Emerging countries 5,4Energy 10,5End of systemic risk in Europe 23,5Consumer Discretionary 15,6Innovation 36,2Global brands 3,5
  26. 26. 262626Rémy Cointreau, undisputed leader on thehigh-end cognac marketRémy Cointreau: Niche player on the high-end spirits market 90% of EBIT on bottles > $20 80% of EBIT is from Cognac, of which 30% inChina Quality management Strategy focused on upmarket potential Strong growth prospects in emergingcountrieson the mostprofitablecategory1%52%38%10%Imported spirits5 million casesConsiderable growth potential…2.6 millioncasesPenetrationrate*2011vs. 2007Cognac 7% +3%Other 5% + 1.5ptsWhiskyOtherCognac
  27. 27. 272727Europe is a Land of Innovation6 of the 10 most innovative countries in the World are in EuropeSource: World Intellectual Property Organization, INSEAD, IndianIndustrial Confederation, 2012TopperformersEfficient innovationInefficient innovationGlobalinnovationindexGDP per capita (PPP) in USDInnovation and level of economic development
  28. 28. 282828Europe is a Land of Innovation6 of the 10 most innovative countries in the World are in EuropeSource: World Intellectual Property Organization, INSEAD, IndianIndustrial Confederation, 2012TopperformersEfficient innovationInefficient innovationGlobalinnovationindexGDP per capita (PPP) in USDInnovation and level of economic development58595960616162636568United StatesIrelandHong KongDenmarkNetherlandsUnited KingdomFinlandSingaporeSwedenSwitzerlandGlobal innovation index (on a scale of 100)
  29. 29. 292929100110120130140150160170180Grifols, pharmaceutical andchemical company Structural growth driven byfundamental trends, in particularimproving diagnosis andincreasing awareness of plasma-derived protein therapies fromdoctors Efficient organic and externalgrowth Acquisition of TalecrisBiotherapeutics allowed costsynergies and to become the thirdlargest global manufacturer ofplasma-derived protein therapiesand access Canadian and Germanmarkets High barriers to sector entryGrifols, among the best performers over 1 year on theSpanish stock exchange marketSource : Carmignac Gestion, 31/05/2013, base 100: 31/05/2012Performance over 1 yearGrifols+60%
  30. 30. 3030309095100105110115120125130135140Carmignac Euro-Entrepreneurs:3-year performancePast performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Performance may vary over time.Source: Morningstar, Carmignac Gestion, 31/05/2013Base 100: 31/05/2010CarmignacEuro-EntrepreneursA EUR acc+33.5%Referenceindicator*+30.6%*Stoxx 200 Small NR (EUR)From 01/01/2013, the equity index reference indicators are calculated net dividends reinvested.3-year volatilityFund: 10.3%Reference indicator*: 14.4%Laurent Ducoin’s arrivalAssets undermanagement at31 May 2013:€220.56 Mn3-year performance
  31. 31. 313131Conclusion: What makes us different ? Europe is at the heart of our foundation Privileged access to companies’ key decisionmakers Our global approach provides a sound angleto our analysis of European companies Our in-house top down analysis provides an edgein determining the most performing investmentthemes All team members are financial analysts,thus idea generators Not restricted to a unique style (ex. ability toadd value themes depending on the cycle) Active hedging policy of specific risksCarmignacEuro-EntrepreneursCarmignacEuro-PatrimoineCarmignacGrande Europe
  32. 32. 323232Appendix
  33. 33. 333333Our risk management
  34. 34. 343434Management of the Fund’s level of exposureDecisions to take derivative positions are takenby L. Ducoin, S. Essafri, F. Leroux and J. CheronSTUDY OF TECHNICAL AND MARKET FACTORS Identification of periods of risk appetite/aversion Relative valuations and correlations between asset classes Investors’ positions Analysis of markets’ response to macroeconomic and political eventsDETERMINING THE LEVEL OF EQUITY EXPOSURE Min: 60% Max: 100%INSTRUMENTS USED Standard, liquid futures contracts on regional and sector indices(DAX or EUROSTOXX) Tactical use of options
  35. 35. 353535Carmignac Grande Europe:an active management of our exposure020406080100120 11/1112/1101/1202/1203/1204/1205/1206/1207/1208/1209/1210/1211/1212/1201/1302/1303/1304/1305/13Source : Carmignac Gestion, 31/05/2013ECB’s recent interventionby the introduction ofLTRO have reassuredinvestorsIncreasingly complexEuropean situation andheavier recessionarypressuresSystemic risk is muchlower thanks to the ECBand FedPolitical uncertainty andslower global growthpoint to greater volatility12341234
  36. 36. 36363690100110120130140150160170Inditex, a unique vertical integration modelInditex Leading global player inclothes retailing (Zara,Bershka, Massimo Dutti, etc.) Flexible, quality businessmodel;a structural winner in thesector Growing exposure toemerging countriesPast performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.Performance may vary over time.Source: Bloomberg, 31/05/2013, base 100: 31/12/2012Inditex+43%1-Year Performance
  37. 37. 373737This presentation has been conceived for information purposes only and is intended to professional clients. It cannot be usedfor another purpose than the one it has been conceived for, and cannot be reproduced, distributed or communicated, partly orentirely, to third parties without prior written approval from Carmignac Gestion. This presentation is not an investment advicenor is it contractually binding. Due to their simplification, the information contained in this presentation are inevitably partial.This document may be subject to changes, without prior notice.Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The value of an investment can rise or fall with market fluctuations, andshareholders may lose, as the case may be, the amount originally invested.The access to the products and services described in this presentation may be subject to restrictions towards some persons orcountries.The risks and fees relative to the products are described in the KIID (Key Investor Information Document).The KIID, prospectuses and annual periodic reports of the Funds are available on our website www.carmignac.com and can beobtained on demand from Carmignac Gestion. The KIID must be given to the investor before any investment.Copyright : The data published in this presentation are the exclusive property of their owners as mentioned on each slide.Non contractual document, redaction achieved on 17/06/2013Carmignac Gestion – Société Anonyme au capital de 15 000 000 € - RCS de Paris B 349 501 676Agrément AMF n° GP 97-08 du 13/03/1997 24 Place Vendôme – 75001 Paris – Tel : +33 1 42 86 53 35Disclaimer

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