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2012 01-20 allianz rcm european equity dividend-agi_citywire

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  • Given equity performance since the financial crisis in combination with current stock market volatility, investors may not find it easy to invest in equities at this point in time. Knowing that the companies in our portfolio will provide a decent and largely inflation-protected income flow should make it easier for investors to still choose equities at these levels. Given current market volatility in light of political insecurity and concerns over economic growth in developed markets, high-yielding dividend stocks continue to offer equity exposure at a lower volatility than the overall market. Moreover, expectations of rising interest rates as well as rising inflation both speak for dividend investing going forward. Finally, history has shown that a dividend strategy was an excellent long-term investment. The general arguments for a dividend strategy appear to be Return: Dividend yields are currently higher than bond yields On top of the dividend flow, capital appreciation is targeted Stability: Dividend paying companies tend to be mature, well-established companies A high dividend payment can provide a stabilising factor for the stock price Dividend payments have a disciplining effect on company management Dividend growth has been much less volatile than earnings growth historically Countercyclical Strategy High dividend yields historically signal attractive entry points: buy when nobody else wants to buy A decreasing dividend yield provides a sell discipline after stock price appreciation The favourable earnings development in 2010 is one reason why dividend payout ratios were recently down markedly. In Europe, the ratio of dividend payouts and earnings per share is currently moderate in a historical comparison, at about 45 % on average. Additionally, companies currently have large amounts of money at their disposal (free cash flow). As companies have improved their capital base and reduced their leverage after the financial crisis, we continue to see room for dividend growth. Even in times of declining earnings, the currently low payout ratios provide a certain safety net, as companies with a lower payout ratio are more likely to at least maintain their dividend per share. On top of this, dividend stocks tend to be rather defensive in an adverse market environment.
  • In the long run, the majority of investors’ return has come from dividends rather than capital growth. In Europe, since 1993, dividends have made up to 50% of investors’ total return in equities. And indeed, if we look at the longer-term picture from the US, dividends have made up 60% of the total return between 1926 and 2000.
  • In international comparison, European companies pursued a particulary shareholderfriendly payout policy during the past few years. On average, dividends have contributed about 4.1% p.a. to the overall performance of the MSCI Europe since 1970. We continue to expect a higher focus on dividend by European managements, as share buybacks are often preferred over dividends in the US for tax reasons. But there are two further reasons to prefer dividend stocks over other asset classes at the moment: rising interest rates rising inflation
  • Traditionally, European investors have relied on bonds to generate the income they need, and to preserve the initial investment. While bonds have a place in any well-balanced portfolio, there are also compelling reasons to invest in equities: • dividends from European equities are currently higher than bond yields • share dividends can increase, generating a rising income, while bonds typically pay only a fixed rate of interest • the potential capital gain on equities is, in theory, unlimited, but bonds only repay the original amount invested once they mature. At a time when inflation trends are rising, we believe that equities provide better protection against inflation than bonds, which are more vulnerable in a high-inflation environment. European equity markets currently offer investors attractive opportunities in our opinion and this fund is able to offer investors the potential to benefit from a combination of both high dividend yields plus potential capital gains from an equity portfolio.
  • Again, the targeted minimum yield is at 125% of the average index yield, always keeping in mind dividend safety. There is a sell discipline in place, either if dividend are cut – although we see it as our job to avoid such stocks to begin with – or if the dividend falls below the market yield – i.e. when the stock has become too expensive. Call-overwriting is a feasible approach to enhance the income flow. However, there is no systematic approach in place, and thus far fund management has not applied call overwriting. The cash position is the main instrument used tactically to preserve capital in falling markets. Equity exposure may and occasionally will be hedged in order to handle capital market risk, but has to be at least 75%. These tools enable the fund management team to concentrate on high and sustainable dividends.
  • Transcript

    • 1. A dividend strategy in a low interest rates market environment Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend Citywire, February 2012 Jörg de Vries-Hippen
    • 2. Content
      • Welcome to Allianz Global Investors
      • The Case for European Dividend Investing
      • Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend: Investment Process
      • Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend: Update
      • Appendix
    • 3. Welcome to Allianz Global Investors 1
    • 4. Allianz Global Investors – A leading global asset manager well positioned to protect and enhance our clients' wealth… … through Our Global Presence and Reach … … and Our Strong Capabilities …
      • A Global Investment Platform delivering Sustainable Alpha through Active Management via
        • shared global research and
        • broad investment expertise across diverse investment styles covering all major asset classes
      • Proven Solutions capabilities addressing Complex Client Needs including world-class Risk Management, Fiduciary Management and Pension-Life / Asset Solutions
      • Local Presence providing In-Depth Understanding of our Clients‘ needs complemented by Thought Leadership in investment and retirement solutions, e.g. Behavioural Finance, SRI
      Strong Presence in the US, Europe and Asia making us the Trusted Partner for our clients across All Asset Classes and Regions 1 . USA Investment professionals: 161 Relationship managers: 144 Europe Investment professionals: 393 Relationship managers: 390 Asia-Pacific Investment professionals: 138 Relationship managers: 188 1 As of 30.06.2011. … with a foundation of the supportive Ownership of Allianz SE – one of the world‘s leading insurance companies
    • 5. A Global equity platform at Allianz Global Investors Truly global platform allows us to compare and contrast/identify and invest in the best stocks in Europe for your portfolio Cornerstone of our investment process Excellent and unique information edge complementing fundamental research Global Research Grassroots ® A global equity platform enabling to invest in the best European stocks
    • 6. Global research headcount
        • An average of 14 years of industry experience
        • Innovative and proprietary investment tools
        • Analysts manage sector and thematic mandates
        • Each analyst conducts circa 100 meetings per year with corporate management
        • Research identifies the key drivers of each stock, which frames and focuses the analytical process
        • Dedicated sustainability research analysts
        • Complemented by Grassroots ® Research
      Source: AGI KAG, as at 30 September 2011. Consumer Financial Services Health Care Industrials Technology Telecom/ Media Sustainability Research (SR) Spec. Sits./ Themes Grassroots ® Research Total Europe 4 4 3 9 2 3 3 6 3 37 US 4 2 4 3 5 1 1 1 3 24 Asia Pacific 1 3 1 4 3 1 0 0 1 14 Total 9 9 8 16 10 5 4 7 7 75 The cornerstone of the investment process – generating information advantage
    • 7. Grassroots ® Research
        • Methodology:
        • Customised to answer specific questions about key stock drivers identified by portfolio managers and analysts
        • Resources:
        • In-house staff of 11
        • 72 reporters
        • 302 Field Force investigators
        • 50,000+ industry contacts
        • Results:
        • 30+ company/industry studies per month
        • Mission:
        • Provide investment professionals with timely business insights that help identify inflection points and increase investment conviction
      Source: RCM, as at 30.09.2011. Grassroots ® Research is a division of RCM. Research data used to generate Grassroots ® Research recommendations is received from reporters and field force investigators who work as independent contractors for broker-dealers. Those broker-dealers supply research to RCM and certain of its affiliates that is paid for by commissions generated by orders executed on behalf of RCM’s clients. RCM is a global asset management company providing active investment strategies. RCM is a company of Allianz Global Investors. RCM is a global investment advisory organisation, consisting of separate affiliated firms, which operates under the brand name RCM Grassroots ® Analysts Sector Analysts Portfolio Managers Client Grassroots ® Reporters Field Force Investigators Suppliers Managers Physicians Competitors Consumers Distributors Regulators Experts Customers www.grassrootsresearch.com Investment decisions – reality checked
    • 8. Contents
      • The Case for European Equity Dividend Investing
      • 02
    • 9. Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend Key Messages High quality companies with proven dividend records, strong and stable cash flows Rigorous and transparent investment process Strong management team with deep experience 
    • 10. Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend: Profile
      • High and sustainable dividend income
      • Long-term capital gains
      • Reduced volatility due to stock selection
      • The fund‘s dividend-yield amounts to at least 125 % of the average MSCI Europe-yield (at present >5.5%)
      • Equity exposure can be hedged 1 : 20% of the assets under management may be held in cash in order to protect the capital
      • At least 75% of AUM are placed in European quality stocks with convincing dividend history and high and stable cash-flows (eligibility for the French Plan d’Epargne en Actions (PEA).
      • Experienced and specialised RCM fund manager team: Neil Dwane, Jörg de Vries-Hippen (CIOs) und Solveig Ströer
      Success of the strategy and achievement of the goals aimed at cannot be guaranteed. As well, losses cannot be excluded. 1 Sole basis of the sale is the prospectus valid at present as of April 2011.
    • 11. Dividends as Success Factors (I) 1 This presentation does not permit to draw conclusions about the future performance of a fund investment. Dividends are more stable than corporate earnings 1 Source: Datastream, Capital Market Analysis Allianz Global Investors; data as per 20/01/2012 Dividend stocks are well-established companies & perceived to be healthy, hence tend to be less volatile than the overall market
    • 12. Dividends as Success Factors (II) Performance contribution of dividends, indexed 100 (1970) This presentation does not permit to draw conclusions about the future performance of a fund investment. Source: Datastream; data as per January 2012 Dividends account for a major part of performance
    • 13. Dividends as a Success Factor (III) This presentation does not permit to draw conclusions about the future performance of a fund investment. Source: Datastream; data as per 20/01/2012 Shareholder-friendly dividend policies particularly prevalent in Europe.
    • 14. Structural Advantage for Dividend Stocks over Bonds – Prospects of Rising Interest Rates & Inflation 6 US 10yr Treasury Yields Purchasing Power at 4% Inflation p.a. With bond principals and coupons at risk, stocks with sustainable/growing dividends offer an inflation-protected investment vehicle.
    • 15. Contents
      • Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend: Investment Process
      • 03
    • 16. Investment Philosophy
      • We strive to generate sustainable returns and capital appreciation by investing in European dividend stocks where we see the ability and willingness to pay consistent, high dividends.
      • We focus on a company’s dividend paying capabilities
      • solid balance sheets
      • high free cash flow generation
      • strength and future viability of business model.
      • A company‘s willingness to continually pay high dividends is also crucial: dividend policy, dividend history and management commitment to dividends are key points.
      • The result is a concentrated portfolio of high quality defensive stocks with high and sustainable dividends, lower volatility than the market and the ability to outperform in the long run.
      Generating lower-risk, high and sustainable returns
    • 17.
      • Pay out policy
      • Dividend history
      Dividend Yields Based on Past and Future Outlook, Using Internal Research
      • Status quo: balance sheet quality
      • Outlook: sustainability of business model
      Potential dividend Pay out potential Free Cash Flow Generation What is the company ABLE to pay out? What is the company WILLING to pay out? Focus on Dividend Safety Forward looking assessment of dividend yield: own research, own estimates.
    • 18. Focus on safety of dividends
      • In the current environment, stock selection through active management is key
      • RCM’s Fundamental Research team analyses dividend sustainability and dividend growth prospects
      Pre-screening European companies with dividend yield above average market yield (MSCI Europe) Dividend safety High and stable income
      • RCM quality check
      • looking at (but not exclusively):
        • Earnings and cash flow coverage
        • Credit rating
        • Distribution capacity
        • Maximum cash flow
        • Impairment risk
        • Dividend growth
      • Piotroski-Score as additional control
      Dividend safety and dividend growth are more important than ever.
    • 19. Unique Portfolio Construction *Buy threshold based on RCM’s estimates on specific stocks which are subject to the latter capabilities to assess the companies correctly. Fundamental equity analysis Expected dividend yield Integration Analyst vote Analyst dividend estimate
      • Active portfolio management: a dynamic approach to buys and sells in order to realise the optimal income and overall returns
      • Buy threshold: dividend yield >125% of average dividend yield of index*
      • Sell candidate: dividend yield < average dividend yield of index
      • Broad diversification across countries and sectors
      • A smaller part of the portfolio (<20%) can be invested in companies with a yield below the buy threshold but with extraordinary dividend stability
      Integration of dividend estimate and company outlook.
    • 20. Portfolio Construction
      • Targeted minimum yield , at 125% of average index yield with focus on dividend safety.
      • Sell discipline , in case dividend is revoked or if dividend falls below market yield.
      • Opportunistically, a Call Overwriting strategy may be implemented to enhance returns.
      • Tactically, a cash position of up to 20 % can be implemented in order to buffer market fluctuations.
      • Ability to hedge equity exposure to handle capital market risk (min. equity exposure at 75%).
      Flexible bottom-up approach.
    • 21. Estimated Dividend Yields Source: Allianz Global Investors; data as of 31/12/2011. The allocation shown is merely an example and is not an indication of the future allocation of the fund.
        • Market Yield
      Total portfolio average: 5.9 35 holdings Every stock in the portfolio is a dividend stock
    • 22. Company Examples
      • Munich Re
      • Munich Re is well positioned in the currently hardening reinsurance market due to its strong balance sheet and its disciplined underwriting
      • The group has a defensive profile within the sector. Its exposure to credit risks is limited, equity exposure was significantly reduced
      • The life re-insurance part appears strongly undervalued versus primary life peers
      • Solvency II should benefit Munich Re as it improves future business prospects. The risk expertise of Munich Re could improve client relationships and increase the chances of differential pricing
      • Dividend
      • Powerful combination of high dividend yield, strict capital management and strong balance sheet
      • Very stable and growing dividend: one of the rare cases in the Financials sector to maintain absolute dividend per share even in the crisis
      Cash dividend Munich Re (in Euro) Source: Bloomberg Every stock in the portfolio is a dividend stock
    • 23. Company Examples
      • Oesterreichische Post
      • The mail business in Austria remains the cash cow. While the monopoly in Austria has legally been abolished, the regulatory framework as such guarantees a quasi-monopoly status.
      • Whilst letter mail is a structurally declining business, cost-cutting and innovative pricing schemes thus far look promising to keep generating the required returns.
      • The growth portion of the company is the parcel and logistics division, which mainly benefits from a move toward online shopping.
      • Dividend
      • The management team is highly focused on (and incentivized according to) cash flow generation
      • The company is aware of the dividend investors' focus on gradually growing dividends backed by good generation of free cash flow, rather than extraordinary payouts or share buybacks.
      • Looking to gradually increase dividend
      Source: Österreichische Post AG Every stock in the portfolio is a dividend stock
    • 24. Contents
      • Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend - Update
      • 04
    • 25. Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend - Performance since inception to 31.12.2011 Source: Wilshire, IDS, 31.12.2011
    • 26. Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend Performance attribution vs MSCI Europe – year to date to 31.12.2011 Source: Wilshire, IDS, 31.12.2011. *Note: Attribution based on position-based performance attribution (daily buy-and-hold, closing price Bewertung, no transaction costs). Performance figures shown on this report are approximates. The official performance for funds subject to substantial cash flows or which trade in volatile daily market conditions will vary from these figures. This fund is not managed against a benchmark. The MSCI Europe is shown for informal reasons.
    • 27. Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend Performance attribution vs MSCI Europe – year to date to 31.12.2011 Source: Wilshire, IDS, 31.12.2011. *Note: Attribution based on position-based performance attribution (daily buy-and-hold, closing price Bewertung, no transaction costs). Performance figures shown on this report are approximates. The official performance for funds subject to substantial cash flows or which trade in volatile daily market conditions will vary from these figures. This fund is not managed against a benchmark. The MSCI Europe is shown for informal reasons.
    • 28. Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend Country allocation vs MSCI Europe (as at 31.12.2011) Source: IDS, 31.12.2011. The fund has no benchmark. The MSCI Europe is shown for informal reasons.
    • 29. Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend Sector allocation vs MSCI Europe (as at 31.12.2011) Source: IDS, 31.12.2011. The fund has no benchmark. The MSCI Europe is shown for informal reasons.
    • 30. Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend Top holdings vs MSCI Europe (as at 31.12.2011) Source: IDS, 31.12.2011. The fund has no benchmark. The MSCI Europe is shown for informal reasons.
    • 31. Contents
      • Appendix
      • 05
    • 32. Portfolio Manager Biographies Neil Dwane Chief Investment Officer, Europe RCM Neil is based in Frankfurt and is responsible for all portfolio management, research and trading activities in Frankfurt and London. Neil is a member of the Global RCM Executive Committee and is Chairperson of the European Equity Management Group. Neil joined RCM in 2001 as Head of UK and European Equity Management from JP Morgan Investment Management where he had been a UK and European specialist portfolio manager since 1996. He began his investment career in 1988 with Kleinwort Benson Investment Management as an analyst. Neil holds a BA in Classics from Durham University and is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants. Jörg de Vries-Hippen Co-CIO European Equities Jörg is an Investment Style Leader for the Core European strategy and is portfolio manager of European Equities Core products. He covers the Swiss equity market and has run the Swiss-Equity funds since 1995. Jörg joined the Company in 1992. From 2003 he took over the Team Head of the European Large Caps in Frankfurt. Since 2007 he has been the Co-CIO of European Equities, the joint European Equities Fund Management group in London and Frankfurt. He graduated with a masters degree in business administration from the University of Mannheim in 1993. Jörg also holds the DVFA/CIIA designation. Source: RCM; data as per 31/12/2010 Solveig Ströer European Equities Solveig Ströer joined the High Alpha Team in 2009, and works primarily on the European Equity Dividend/Income strategies. Her country focus is Italy. Previously, she worked with the European Mid & Small Caps Team, after having completed the RCM Global Graduate Program in early 2008 Solveig obtained an MBA degree from the WHU Otto Beisheim School of Management in Vallendar, specializing in Finance and Leadership. Her work experience includes positions at The Boston Consulting Group and MLP AG. Solveig also holds an MScEcon degree in International Politics from the University of Wales in Aberystwyth, as well as a Bachelor of Arts in Public Relations from the University of Southern California in Los Angeles.
    • 33. Style skyline Allianz RCM Europe Equity Dividend, vs. MSCI Europe Data as at 31/12/2011 True to label – clear dividend tilt versus broad market
    • 34. Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend
      • The Piotroski scoring system seeks to identify stocks with high financial strength
      • It applies one point for each of the following nine indicators (the higher the overall sum, the better):
      • The Piotroski score was developed by Joseph Piotroski, an Associate Professor of Accounting at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business (previously at the University of Chicago’s Graduate School of Business). He reasoned that because value stocks are by definition often those of troubled companies, many will not possess the financial resources to recover. The scoring can help to eliminate the financially weakest stocks
      Source: Morgan Stanley, Stanford Graduate School of Business 1 Positive net income 6 Improving productivity (asset turnover > prior period) 2 Positive operating cash flow 7 Growing profitability (return on assets > prior period) 3 Earnings quality (operating cash flow > net income) 8 Issuing stock (share outstanding </= prior period) 4 Decreasing debt (total debt/assets < prior period) 9 Competitive position (gross margin > prior period) 5 Increasing working capital
    • 35. Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend Overview Source: Allianz Global Investors; data as per 30/11/2011 1 TER (Total Expense Ratio): Total cost (except transaction costs) charged to the fund during the last financial year. 2 TER of abridged business year.
    • 36. Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend Source: Allianz Global Investors; data as per 30/12/2011
      • High return potential of stocks in the long run
      • Investments specifically in the European stock market
      • Dividend stocks outperform in some phases
      • Broad diversification across numerous securities
      • Possible extra returns through single security analysis and active management
      Opportunities
      • The volatility of fund unit prices may be strongly increased.
      • High volatility of stocks, losses possible
      • Underperformance of the European stock market possible
      • Dividend stocks may underperform at times
      • Limited participation in the yield potential of single securities
      • Success of single security analysis and active management not guaranteed
      Risks
    • 37. Disclaimer Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend is a sub-fund of Allianz Global Investors Fund, which is an open-ended investment company with variable share capital (also known as a SICAV) organised under the laws of Luxembourg. Allianz Global Investors Fund qualifies as an undertaking for collective investments in transferable securities (‘UCITS’) in accordance with the provisions of the European Union (‘EU’) Directive EEC/85/611 (as amended subsequently).Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend may not be registered or authorised for public distribution in the country of residence of investors. Accordingly, it is the responsibility of investors to be aware of the applicable laws and regulations of their country of residence in respect of financial promotion. Thus, the information contained in this document should not be construed as constitutive of an offer or solicitation (i) by anyone to buy shares in Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so or (ii) to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation in the jurisdiction in which this person resides.Specifically, Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend is not available for distribution to or investments by investors in the United States of America (‘USA’). Its shares are not registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, except in a transaction which does not violate the Securities Act or any other applicable securities laws (including without limitation any applicable law of any of the States of the USA), such shares may not be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the USA or any of its territories or possessions or areas subject to its jurisdiction or to or for the benefit of an investor in the USA. Subscriptions for shares of Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend can only be made on the basis of the latest prospectus and simplified prospectus of Allianz Global Investors Fund, complemented by any local supplement to these prospectuses, together with the latest audited annual report (and subsequent unaudited semi-annual report, if published), copies of which can be obtained, free of charge, from the management company, Allianz Global Investors Luxembourg S.A., as well as from Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH. As with all investment products, a fund’s past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and the value of the shares of Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend and any income from them may fall as well as rise. On redemption of shares, investors may receive back an amount less than the original amount of their investments. The assets of Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend may be denominated in a variety of currencies and therefore movements in the value of currencies may also affect the value of investors’ holdings. Furthermore, the value of the shares of Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend may be adversely affected by fluctuations in exchange rates between the investors’ reference currencies and its base currency.Further information on the risks associated with investments in Allianz RCM European Equity Dividend -those briefly described above as well as others, if applicable- can be found in the prospectuses of Allianz Global Investors Fund.This document is deemed to be marketing material according to Art. 19 section 2 sentence 2 of EU Directive 2004/39/EG (“MiFiD”). This document has been issued and approved by Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH, a subsidiary of Allianz Global Investors AG (part of the Allianz Group). Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH is a limited liability company incorporated under the laws of the Federal Republic of Germany with its registered office at Mainzer Landstrasse 11-13, D-60329 Frankfurt/Main. Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH is licensed as a provider of financial services (Finanzdienstleistungsinstitut); for the conduct of its business activities, Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH is subject to the supervision of the German Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin). This document is meant to provide a broad overview for discussion and/or information purposes. Furthermore, this document was not prepared with the intention of providing legal or tax advice. The views and opinions expressed in this document, which are subject to change, are those of Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH and its affiliated companies at the time of publication. The duplication, publication, or transmission of the contents of this document to unauthorised persons, irrespective of the form, is not permitted. While some of the data provided herein is derived from various published and unpublished sources, and is assumed to be correct and reliable, it has not been independently verified. Therefore, Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such data/information and will not accept any liability for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. The investment opportunities described herein are not guaranteed by Allianz Global Investors Europe GmbH or affiliated companies within the Allianz Group. Internet: www.allianzglobalinvestors.eu, E-Mail: eusalessupport@allianzgi.com Source: Allianz Global Investors; data as per 30/11/2011
    • 38. Thank you!

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