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Eye on r

  1. 1. Eye on Africa Special issue | December/January 2011 How to write yourself into the African growth story !@#
  2. 2. Executive summary After decades of false starts and turmoil, most African countries experienced steady reform, growth and development over the past 15 years. Strategic resources, a growing consumer base and generally positive economic prospects are all contributing to rapidly growing interest in Africa as a business and investment destination. However, investing and doing business in Africa is challenging and, amongst other things, requires both careful planning and imagination. In this paper we provide some ideas about how to begin developing a growth strategy for Africa. The analysis is most relevant to consumer-facing sectors such as telecommunications, financial services, pharmaceuticals, retail and consumer products. It demonstrates the significant growth potential that exists among Africa’s one billion consumers, but also the need to first move beyond general analysis of the ‘African’ market to a far more granular level of market-specific detail and second to deepen conventional country-based macro-analysis by using other market lenses such as regional trading blocs, urban corridors and cultural or socio-economic groupings. To support this process we provide some useful frameworks that illustrate relative potential in different African markets, using a combination of different lenses. The intention is not to reach definitive conclusions, but rather to provide ideas to enrich and expand strategic thinking and dialogue about how to develop a market entry or expansion strategy for Africa. Our footprint Tunisia co oc or M Algeria Libya Egypt Western Sahara Cape Verde Mauritania Mali Niger Eritrea Chad Senegal Burkina Faso Sudan Gambia Djibouti Guinea Bissau Nigeria Ghana Guinea Cote- Ethiopia dIvoire Central African Uganda Sierra Leone Cameroon Republic Togo Benin Somalia Liberia Equatorial Guinea Sao Tome Congo Kenya Gabon Democratic Republic of Congo Seychelles Rwanda Burundi Tanzania Comoros Angola Zambia Malawi Ernst & Young office Mauritius No Ernst & Young office, car Zimbabwe but support available agas Namibia Mozambique No offices, no support Mad Botswana Reunion Swaziland Lesotho South Africa1
  3. 3. The African growth story: fact or fiction?Africa’s challenges are well documented. International television The sustainability of this economic improvement is shored up byor print reports about Africa are almost invariably negative, and a range of human development and governance indicators. Theusually focus on natural disasters, civil wars, political instability, Ibrahim Index of African Governance, for example, whichfamine and disease. For decades, the default response of provides a comprehensive analysis of the quality of governancedeveloped nations has been aid programmes; investment for and development, shows steady improvement across most ofgain has seemed misguided and exploitative. the continent, with marked progress in countries like Angola and Tanzania.However, there has been a steady shift over the past few yearsand today more positive messages are filtering through. Figure 3 - Trends in the Ibrahim Index of African GovernanceBusiness news pages are publishing a growing number of 60.0foreign investment stories reflecting interest from within and 50.0outside the continent. 40.0Underpinning this attention is a story of sustained growth and 30.0development. For example, GDP per household across the 20.0continent has more than doubled in the last 15 years. 10.0 Figure 1 - GDP growth across Africa 0.0 $ 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 9,000 Djibouti Tanzania Angola Niger Congo - Kinshasa African average 8,000 7,000 Source: Mo Ibrahim Foundation 6,000 5,000 These developments have not appeared out of nowhere. While 4,000 3,000 the global economic crisis may have provided a ‘tipping point’ 2,000 for Africa, the fundamentals underpinning this positive shift 1,000 have been laid over a longer period of time. With the end of the 0 Cold War, armed conflict across the continent decreased 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Source: World Bank significantly and Africa entered into a new era of economic and political reform. Inflation was brought under control, foreign debt and budget deficits reduced, state-owned enterprisesForeign direct investment into Africa nearly quadrupled between privatised, regulatory and legal systems strengthened, and1998 and 2008 alone. many African economies were opened up to international trade. A considerably improved business environment, combined withFigure 2 - Foreign direct investment into Africa a sustained commodity boom and infrastructure investment, all 60 contributed to an average annual growth rate of approximately 6% in sub-Sahara Africa between 2002 and 2008. 50 40 Although the global economic crisis has certainly impacted Africa, particularly those economies more integrated into theBillions ($) 30 global economy, most economies seem to have weathered the 20 storm reasonably well. Commodity prices in particular have rebounded strongly (primarily on the back of strong demand 10 from the growing Asian economies) after an initial dip, and the World Bank forecasts a growth rate of between 3.8 and 4.5% for 0 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 the sub-Saharan region through 2011. Source: UNCTAD Africa’s role as an exporter of strategic minerals and energy sources will continue to grow, but Africa’s economic potential also extends well beyond commodity exporting. How to write yourself into the African growth story 2
  4. 4. The telecommunications and banking sectors, for example, are growing rapidly, as is infrastructure spending, and the agricultural sector is likely to boom. Ernst & Young analysis of consumer market growth in the last 15 years illustrates a profile of a market with both short- and long-term potential; each segment of the African market shows a slow-down among the very poor, high growth for the mass market and moderate growth among the middle class and affluent segment. Figure 4 - African household income targets 120,000.000 4.50% 4.00% 100,000.000 3.50% Growth rate (1995-2010) No. of households (2010) 80,000.000 3.00% 2.50% 60,000.000 2.00% 40,000.000 1.50% 1.00% 20,000.000 0.50% 0 0.00% 45000+ 40000-45000 35000-40000 30000-35000 25000-30000 20000-25000 15000-20000 10000-15000 5000-10000 0-5000 Source: C-GIDD, EY analysis This upward growth trend is likely to accelerate over the next ten to 15 years; as a result of a combination of population growth, urbanisation, and continued economic development, consumer-facing sectors such as financial services, telecommunications, retail and consumer products, are likely to experience significant growth. Rising domestic consumption, growing intra-African trade and the increasing diversification of key economies should provide a multiplier effect in terms of increasing domestic growth. In short, most African countries and consumers will continue to become steadily more affluent. “The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best time is now.” African proverb3
  5. 5. The forward looking story for Africa may be positive, but whereMaking your growth to write yourself into the narrative? Despite numerous opportunities for long term growth, there are still very realpart of the African challenges to doing business across the continent. Africa’s size and diversity are an immediate stumbling block. In terms ofstory landmass alone, Africa is staggering: China, the United States, India, Europe, Argentina, and New Zealand could fit within it. Figure 5 - Landmasses which fit within the African continent United States of America New Zealand Argentina India China Europe Source: EY Its 53 countries share borders which were, in many instances, carved arbitrarily by colonial powers; however national sovereignty is often jealously guarded. Africa’s one billion inhabitants are culturally, ethnically and religiously diverse and speak numerous languages and dialects. Figure 6 - World map warped to reflect number of non-mainstream languages spoken in each country Source: www.worldmapper.com How to write yourself into the African growth story 4
  6. 6. Similarly, economic growth and business prospects are On the face of it, it may be difficult, for example, to justify a markedly different from country to country, and region to focus on countries like Somalia, Eritrea, the Central African region, and require a very careful and thorough due diligence Republic, Guinea-Bissau and Niger. (There are others, such as process. the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe that clearly have potential, but are not being viewed positively.) Considering potential markets for entry into or expansion across Africa is therefore a complex exercise, requiring a kaleidoscopic Alternatively, there are those that are more obviously worth analysis - one which allows you to interchange different lenses consideration: onto the market so as to build up a richness of perspective, and to provide scope to define what, in the African context, are • South Africa, Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco are all relatively often undeveloped or even latent markets. mature, diverse and (more or less) open economies, with relatively positive growth prospects. Botswana, Namibia and, There are two basic types of market lens that we recommend increasingly, Mauritius would also fall into this category, considering: although their relative population sizes are small. • Many commentators predict that Nigeria will be the • groupings of markets, like regions, individual countries, continent’s future powerhouse. Despite current challenges of trading blocs and countries with cultural affinity doing business, regulatory reforms are having a positive • dimensions such as sector view, demographics and socio- impact, and sheer population size (over 150 million, almost economic bands half of which is urban), oil wealth, and the strong economic growth trend (real GDP growing at an average of 7% over a We also recommend not reducing market analysis to a closed ten year period to 2013, and GDP per capita over the same model in which various indicators are combined in terms of their period at over 15%) make it a market that is difficult to weighted importance. Such models give the misleading ignore. impression that there are absolute answers in searching for • Angola’s is another market with clear potential. While its market potential. In reality, there will be different answers for Ease of Doing Business and Governance rankings are low people with different priorities, and as priorities change over (indicative of the current challenges of the market), its time for any given organisation, so will the answers. For forward looking growth prospects are very strong (ten year example, a consumer products company will have a different Real GDP growth of 11% and GDP per capita growth of way of measuring potential to a financial services or oil and gas 25.7%). company; each individual company will have a different appetite • Ghana performs relatively strongly across a range of for investment risk; and as the process of investment proceeds, indicators, reflecting strong institutional and policy some preconceptions will be undermined by new analysis. fundamentals, as well as a strong Governance ranking and economic development prospects (ten year GDP growth of 7.6% and GDP per capita growth of 20.4%). Starting with more conventional analysis Some of the emerging economies that stand out as having good Conventional macro-indicators are a useful starting point in this prospects in an exercise of this nature include: process: they can help in reviewing commonly-held conclusions about the relative maturity and potential of countries. There are • Kenya’s population is 38 million, labour force 17 million, GDP numerous indicators and indices that one can use (and while growth 4.8% and GDP per capita growth 12.6%. It also scores access to reliable data can be problematic, extensive open data reasonably well in the Ease of Doing Business Index (in the sources, such as those provided by the World Bank, are same category as Ghana). increasingly available). However, one can also get lost in an • Tanzania has a population of 42 million people and a labour exercise of this nature, so we recommend selecting a relatively force of 20 million (the fifth highest on the continent). contained but balanced set of indicators that can begin to Although current GDP per capita is very low ($532), ten provide some direction. year GDP growth of 6%, combined with GDP per capita growth of 10% and a relatively high ranking on the Ibrahim For illustrative purposes, the set of indicators in Figure 11 can Index (12), makes it look like a market for the future. allow some tentative hypotheses to be developed from a Retail • Mozambique, after many years of civil war, is promising to Financial Services perspective. In applying these indicators emerge as a real success story. A relatively large population across all 53 African countries, one would probably immediately of 22 million (labour force of 10 million) and ten year GDP discount a fairly large number based on a combination of and per capita growth of 7.1% and 21.1% respectively makes demographic factors, unattractive economic growth prospects this a market with obvious potential. and the relative difficulty and risk of doing business.5
  7. 7. Moving beyond conventional analysisThis kind of analysis is useful to a point, but can also provide limited answers and a limiting strategic horizon(starting with national boundaries as the limiting unit of analysis).To move beyond commonly-held assumptions, less conventional market groupings can be a lot more usefulin helping to progress thinking. Urban corridors, for example, are viable markets are often missed instraightforward country-based comparisons. These corridors develop in parallel with transport infrastructureand trade routes, and are often the backbone of national and even regional economies. So, for instance,while Nigeria and the broader West African region may look daunting in terms of market development, theGreater Ibadan-Lagos-Accra (GILA) urban corridor has a population of about 25 million consumers, and isreally the economic engine of West Africa (see Figure 8).Figure 7 - The GILA urban corridor Source: UN-HabitatUN-Habitat predicts rapid urbanisation for Africa, with much of the growth in medium-sized conurbations(see Figure 7), and this is where much of the economic growth and development will happen.Figure 8 - African urbanisation statisticsSize >10m 5-10m 1-5m 0.5-1m <0.5mNumber 2 2 48 60 UnknownPopulation (thousands) 23,076 14,238 102,418 41,057 231,404Percent of urban population 6.18 3.81 27.43 10.10 52.48Trend for 2025 3 8 73 84 Unknown Source: UN-HabitatThinking beyond geography, culture can also suggest unconventional but useful groupings. For example, theMuslim population of Africa is often underestimated. At 470m people, one third of the world’s Muslimpopulation lives in Africa (see Figure 9 which shows a distortion of the world map to represent relative shareof the world’s population of Muslims).Figure 9 - Country sizes distorted to represent Muslim population Source: www.worldmapper.com How to write yourself into the African growth story 6
  8. 8. A common assumption is that most of these people are in North Africa. Surprising to many is the fact that large Muslim populations reside in sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria, for instance, has over 60m Muslims, the second largest Muslim population in Africa. Tanzania has 19m, Senegal 11m and Mozambique 4m. This is a significant and underserved consumer market. Household income can be another useful indicator of market potential. For example, it can be illuminating to compare the growth rates of different income segments. The bar charts in Figure 10 enable some working hypotheses about the overall consumer development trajectory of African countries. Figure 10 - 15 year growth rates of a sample of African countries spilt by $5k increments of annual household income 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% Algeria Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Source: C-GIDD, EY analysis 0-5000 5000-10000 10000-15000 5000-20000 20000-25000 25000-30000 30000-35000 35000-40000 40000-45000 45000+ The growth patterns of consumer groups within African countries conform approximately to eight different patterns (see Figure 12), on the basis of which some assumptions can be made. Where the poorest segments of the market are growing most rapidly and the most affluent are shrinking concomitantly, one could assume that the country’s economic development is in retreat. Conversely, sharp growth in affluent segments and a decline in households falling into the poorest segments suggest a society which is becoming richer. If, for example, your target market is towards the lower end, but with some disposable income (earning, for instance, between $5k and $20k annually as a household), the fourth and fifth type of market in Figure 12 look most attractive, which implies a focus on countries like Cape Verde, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Libya, Gambia, Namibia, Sao Tome & Principe, Senegal, South Africa and Swaziland. Alternatively, a company looking for a population tending towards greater affluence in the near term would perhaps focus on the eighth pattern, which includes Egypt, Mauritius, Morocco, Seychelles, Sudan, and Tunisia. However, the countries identified by such a selection are obviously very different. Combining the analysis with absolute market size, for instance, the likes of Cape Verde and Sao Tome & Principe are tiny in comparison to, say, South Africa or Libya. On the flipside, Sao Tome & Principe has significant offshore oil reserves which could increase the importance of this country for certain companies, despite its small size. The point here is that analysis must combine multiple indicators to provide a reliable view of the market. As a result we encourage a focus on a manageable set of indicators for any given analysis but shuffle the deck to work towards a framework which asks the right questions given a particular organisation’s priorities. For example, Figures 13 and 14 provide one such framework, facilitating a comparison between two7
  9. 9. different consumer segments in African countries – The analysis can be enriched by plotting some of thethe $5K – $20k annual household income segment different market groupings referred to earlier on theand $20K – $45k, but factoring in the relative ease chart; for illustrative purposes we have includedof doing business in different markets as well. They Islamic countries, North Africa, SADC countries, andwork across four indicators to arrive at a view of the GILA urban corridor, among others. Because it isrelative potential: ill-advised to target individual countries out of context of surrounding or related markets, these• The % of the whole market represented by the alternative market groupings allow for discussion segment under consideration in order to provide a about the most attractive sets of markets on which view of the relative maturity of that segment and to focus. therefore the theoretical room for growth (y axis) To evolve this analysis to a meaningful stage does, of• The growth rate of that market segment over the course, require the inclusion of industry-specific 1995 – 2010 period, as an approximate indicator indicators. For example, Figure 15 is an example of of potential analysis for a Life Insurance company in which we• The absolute size (i.e. number of households) in compare the growth rate of the $5k – $20k the market segment consumer segment over 1995 – 2010 with life• The ranking of the whole country in terms of the insurance premiums as a % of GDP in the country as World Bank’s Ease of doing business index a whole (i.e. insurance penetration), and the absolute size of the market segment in terms ofCombining these indicators enables one to form a number of households. In this case, we have appliedjudgement as to the relative potential of markets. In the framework across a number of emergingthis example, we have simplified the process by markets across Africa, Latin America and Asia. Somelaying down gridlines, within which tentative tentative conclusions that can be drawn:assessments can be made about different markets;the positioning of the gridlines is a subjective • Markets with low insurance market penetrationprocess, and should be considered part of making (under 2%) and positive segment growth aredecisions about the criteria for market potential. ‘markets to make’: countries in which the market entrant will have to cultivate consumers’So, for example, in Figure 13 (the $5k-$20k understanding of the services they are offeringsegment), markets with a low growth rate and high and wrestle with costly bureaucracy.saturation rate are considered ‘Saturated’ (Category • Markets with insurance market penetrationA) and would therefore be a less desirable between 2 and 5%, and positive segment growthinvestment destination if the focus is on this are ‘markets to develop’ in the sense that there isconsumer segment. Such markets include Egypt, already an immature market for life insurance andMorocco, Tunisia and North Africa generally. South therefore an opportunity to fight a fragmentedAfrica is also moving into this territory. At the competition for market leadership.diagonally opposite end of the grid, markets with a • Markets with high insurance market penetrationhigh rate of historical growth and a low level of (over 5%) and positive segment growth aresaturation are considered ‘Underdeveloped but ‘markets to win’: countries in which marketgrowing fast’ (Category H) and should therefore be leadership must be prised away from anrelatively attractive investment destinations. Such established and consolidated competition.markets include Rwanda, Ethiopia, Mozambique, • Markets with negative segment growth are hereAngola and, more generally, the Portuguese considered ‘markets to avoid’.speaking nations. The majority of African markets sitbetween these two extremes in the ‘Evolved but still A life insurer focused on the $5k – $20k marketgrowing’ part of the grid, where growth has been segment would therefore probably avoid Mexico androbust and saturation is moderate. Turkey in this analysis. Furthermore, they might also avoid ‘markets to win’, like South Africa in this case,By contrast, the majority of markets in the $20k – because these are already highly contested, and the$45k consumer segment (Figure 14) fall into the cost of dislodging established competition would be‘underdeveloped but growing’ category. There is, too great. They would instead build a portfolio ofhowever, a long tail in the ‘underdeveloped but opportunities within the remaining two categories ofgrowing fast’ category: East Africa looks particularly market, based on more detailed analysis.promising with close to 8% growth and a significantcombined size. How to write yourself into the African growth story 8
  10. 10. Initial conclusion We are convinced that any multinational organisation with serious long term growth ambition should be factoring Africa into its strategs. Now is the time to invest in understanding markets, identifying partners, developing opportunities, configuring industries, building brands, and establishing local credibility. However, one should also not lose perspective. There is a feverish tone to the media coverage of emerging markets generally, sometimes redolent of the 19th century gold rush era. Just like then, it takes more than luck and resourcefulness to sustain success; despite all the positive developments across most parts of Africa over the past 20 years, one should not lose sight of the very real challenges of identifying viable markets and of doing business across the continent. Whether entering or expanding into Africa, it is therefore critical to develop a structured and meaningful framework for assessing different strategic options; one that helps configure markets not only as they are in more conventional terms, but also as they might be. While our analysis in this paper is not intended to provide such a framework (which has to be organisation-specific), we do hope it has at least offered some useful ideas and guidelines for getting started.9
  11. 11. Figure 11 - Macro indicators for a sample of African countries Mobile phone subscibers Ease of doing business (2008 per 100 people market sophistication IRAI Financial Sector Ibraihim Index rank (US$ 2003-2013) (US$ 2003-2013) GDP capita growth WEF GCR financial Urban population GDP per capita (US$ 2009) Labour force GDP growth Population (millions) (millions) (% total) Score* rank rankSouth Africa 49 18 60.74 5,884 3.8 13.6 92.43 34 N/A 5 5Nigeria 151 46 48.36 1,333 7.0 15.4 41.63 125 N/A 35 57Angola 18 8 56.70 4,219 11.0 25.7 37.59 169 2.5 42 N/ABotswana 2 0.69 59.58 6,481 3.6 3.8 77.99 45 N/A 4 47Ghana 23 10 50.02 635 7.6 20.4 49.55 92 4.0 7 59Mozambique 22 10 36.84 840 7.1 21.1 20.22 135 3.5 26 118Tanzania 42 20 25.52 532 6.6 10.0 30.62 131 4.0 12 74Kenya 39 17 21.60 892 4.8 12.6 42.13 95 3.5 22 37Namibia 2 0.69 36.84 4,451 4.9 2.3 49.76 66 N/A 6 31Algeria 34 14 65.22 3,842 3.8 11.1 81.42 136 N/A 14 132Egypt 82 25 42.72 2,507 5.2 12.4 50.62 106 N/A 11 84Morocco 31 11 56.02 2,939 4.2 8.5 73.06 128 N/A 16 96Tunisa 10 4 66.50 3,703 5.1 6.6 82.98 69 N/A 8 87 Source: World Bank, Business Monitor Internation, Mo Ibrihim Foundation, World Economic ForumFigure 12 - Patterns of growth in household income for African countries Algeria, Burundi, Chad, Congo, Coté D’Ivoire, Madagascar, Democratic Republic of Congo Cape Verde, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Gabon, Guines-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Somalia Liberia, Libya Zimbabwe+ + + + Markedly getting poorer0 0 0 0 Remaining roughly static Remaining roughly Growth of the working with a tendency to static poor/middle market greater poverty - - - - 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45+ 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45+ 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45+ 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45+ 0-5 5-10 10-15 0-5 5-10 10-15 0-5 5-10 10-15 0-5 5-10 10-15 Market segments ($Household Market segments ($Household Market segments ($Household Market segments ($Household income) income) income) income) African average, Gambia, Benin, Cameroon, Central Angola, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Egypt, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, Sao Tome & Principe, African Republic, Comoros, Ghana, Guinea, Malawi, Seychelles, Sudan, Tunisia South Africa, Swaziland Djibouti, Kenya, Lesotho, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Senegal, Togo, Zambia Nigeria, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda+ + + +0 0 0 0 Remaining roughly static Generally getting Markedly getting Working poor and with a tendency towards affluent growth more affluent more affluent greater affluence - - - - 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45+ 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45+ 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45+ 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45+ 0-5 5-10 10-15 0-5 5-10 10-15 0-5 5-10 10-15 0-5 5-10 10-15 Market segments ($Household Market segments ($Household Market segments ($Household Market segments ($Household income) income) income) income) Source: C-GIDD, EY analysis How to write yourself into the African growth story 10
  12. 12. 11 Figure 13 - framework for identifying high potential markets in the $5k - $20k annual household income segment 90% Key Saturated Mature but still growing No. of households in the market segment 80% Egypt North Africa GILA Urban Corridor 15m 3m 0.5m 70% Algeria Morocco Sudan Cape Verde Ease of doing business ranking Senegal 60% Gabon Tunisa South Africa Mauritania 1-39 40-140 141-183 Equatorial Guinea 50% Gambia x axis - growth rate of market segment from Swaziland 1995-2010 Evolved but stagnating/ Evolved and Evolved and y axis - households in market segment as % of all regressing Nigeria still growing growing fast households in the whole market 40% Cameroon Benin Congo Sao Tome & Principe Kenya Namibia East Africa Mauritius Lesotho Comoros Ghana 30% Togo Burkina Faso Uganda Zambia Sierra Leone Libya Seychelles Tanzania Mali Ethiopia 20% Rwanda French speaking nations Angola Madagascar Central African Republic Niger Portuguese speaking nations Land locked countries Liberia 10% Eritrea Somalia Guinea-Bassau Malawi Chad Zimbabwe Burundi Democratic Republic of Congo 0% Underdeveloped and Underdeveloped but growing Underdeveloped but stagnating / regressing growing fast -10% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% Source: C-GIDD; World Bank; EY analysis

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