12 - Alberto Ades

Vientos de Cola Generan Desafíos y Oportunidades Alberto Ades Head of Latin America Economics and Market Analysis alberto.ades@citi.com +1 212 816 2735 Noviembre 2009

Global La recuperación global continúa consolidándose. Recientes datos confirman que los EEUU, Europa, y Canadá están retornando a crecimiento positivo en el tercer trimestre. Esto marcaría el fin “técnico” de las recesiones en esos países o regiones. Asia está en franca recupreación. Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices ISM New Export Orders and Exports to Developing Asia (Year-to-Year Percent Change) 65 65 50 50% 65 60 60 40 60 30 55 55 20 55 50 50 10 50 0 45 45 -10 US Expors t Asi ( t t o a Lef) 45 United States -20 New Expor Or s ( ght t der Ri ) 40 40 40 Euro Area -30 Japan 35 35 -40 35 China 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 30 30 2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Global Luego de una recuperación inicial impulsada por la recomposición de inventarios, el crecimiento será desigual por regiones. Esperamos un mayor rebote en Asia (ex-Japón), y en EEUU un crecimiento más fuerte que en el resto de los países desarrollados. Economic Forecast Overview GDP Growth CPI Inflation CA Balance Fiscal Balance (%) (%) (% of GDP) (% of GDP) 2009F 2010F 2009F 2010F 2009F 2010F 2009F 2010F United States -2.5 2.6 -0.4 1.8 -3.2 -4.0 -12.0 -9.0 Japan -5.7 1.0 -1.2 -1.5 2.9 3.4 -11.3 -8.6 Euro Area -3.7 1.6 0.2 1.1 -0.7 0.4 -6.0 -6.5 United Kingdom -4.4 1.3 2.1 3.4 -2.7 -2.1 -12.6 -14.0 Brazil 0.2 5.0 4.9 4.0 -1.1 -2.2 -3.0 -1.8 Russia -7.5 3.0 12.0 8.6 4.0 3.4 -6.5 -4.2 India 5.8 7.8 2.0 5.0 -0.9 0.1 -10.5 -8.5 China 8.7 9.8 -0.6 3.0 6.7 6.2 -3.0 -2.4 Source: Citi Investment Research and Analysis 3

Global Los flujos de capitales a países emergentes han aumentado sustancialmente desde marzo. Esto crea nuevos “problemas” para los banqueros centrales de la región, que deben enfrentar presiones a la apreciación de sus monedas. Emerging Market Fund Flows (Weekly By Region) 8 3% 6 2% W eekl Fl ( S$ bn) 4 2 1% y ows U s % ofasset - 0% ( 2) ( 4) -1% ( 6) -2% ( 8) -3% ( 10) ( 12) -4% J 08 Apr08 an- - J - ul08 Oc - t08 De - c 08 Mar09 J 09 Se 09 - un- p- G EM S Lat am EM EA Asi ex a Tot ( H S) al R 4

Global Un dólar débil ayudaría a mantener los precios de los commodities elevados, reforzando la apreciación de los tipos de cambio regionales. Selected Commodity Prices 475 425 God l 375 Oil 325 L I x ME nde CRB F o I x o d nde 275 225 175 125 75 25 ul04 ul05 ul06 ul07 ul08 ul09 J 04 J 05 J 06 J 07 J 08 J 09 J- J- J- J- J- J- an- an- an- an- an- an- 5

Estados Unidos Las condiciones financieras continúan mejorando y varios indicadores sugieren que la economía está creciendo nuevamente (el PBI creció 3.5% en 3Q09 y estimamos un 2.0% de crecimiento para 4Q09). Monthly GDP (Six-Mos. Smoothed Pct Chg) and Citi Financial Conditions Index (Standard Deviations) 8% 8 3 3 6 2 1 4 0 2 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -6 -5 -8 -6 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 RealGDP ( t Lef) FCI( ght Ri ) 6

Estados Unidos También hay signos alentadores de recuperación en el mercado inmobiliario y el consumo. Selected House Price Indexes (Three- Essential and Discretionary Spending Month Annualized Percent Change) Ex-Autos in PCE (Six-Month Smoothed Annualized Percent Change) 25 25% 40 25% 15% 15 15 15% 20 30 15 12 12 20 10 9 9 10 5 6 6 0 0 -5 -10 3 3 -10 -20 0 0 -15 -30 -20 -3 -3 -25 -40 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 -6 -6 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FHFA Case-Shiller Loan Performance Essential Discretionary 7

Estados Unidos El empleo temporario ha aumentado significativamente en los últimos tres meses y ha caído el número de industrias con pérdida neta de empleo. Three-Month Employment Diffusion and Three-Month Change in 200 200K Temporary Help Employment (Thousands) 90 150 80 100 70 50 60 0 50 -50 40 -100 30 -150 20 -200 10 -250 0 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 T mpo ar Hep ( e t e r y l L f) Dif in I x( ght fuso nde Ri ) 8

Estados Unidos Costos laborales  + Productividad  = Ganancias Corporativas  Estos factores deberían conducir a crecimiento del empleo (esperamos que la Fed suba tasas para el verano del norte). Unit Labor Cost (1992=100), Output Per Hour/Nonfarm Business Sector (1992=100) and Corporate Profits (SAAR, $bn) 160 1,700 150 1,600 1,500 140 Base 1992=100 SAAR, $ bn 1,400 130 1,300 120 1,200 Unit Labor Cost 110 Output Per Hour - Nonfarm Business Sector 1,100 Corporate Profits (right) 100 1,000 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 9

América Latina La actividad se encuentra repuntando también en la región. 120 Regional GDP Indices (Base Jan 2006 = 100) 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Latam GDP Weighted USA Europe Latam Equally Weighted Evolution of Consolidated Economic Indicators for 2009 – Latin America Oct-09 Sep-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Mar-09 Feb-09 Real GDP Growth (%, yoy) -2.2 -2.2 -3.0 -2.6 -2.5 -0.8 -0.8 0.2 Inflation (% yoy, eop) 5.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.7 9.1 8.9 8.6 Inflation IT-5 (% yoy, eop) 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.3 Current Account (% of GDP) -0.7 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5 -1.6 -1.8 -1.8 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -3.0 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.6 -2.6 -2.5 Source: Citi Investment Research and Analysis 10

América Latina Inflación en baja permite mantener los estímulos monetarios por el momento. 8. 0 % 7. 0 6. 0 5. 0 4. 0 3. 0 2. 0 1. 0 0. 0 Se 04 p- Se 05 p- Se 06 p- Se 07 p- Se 08 p- Se 09 p- Annualnfato ( weght d) I l in GDP- i e Annual e I l in ( weght d) i d nfato GDP- i e z 11

América Latina Consolidated Macro Forecasts, 2009-2011 2009F 2010F 2011F ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Real GDP growth (yoy) -2.2 3.7 3.7 Real Investment Growth (yoy) -12.8 7.4 8.3 Real Consumption Growth (yoy) 0.2 3.9 4.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.4 8.5 8.1 PRICES Consumer Price Inflation (yoy, eop) 5.9 6.7 6.5 Bilateral Real Exchange Rate (% change yoy, + dep.) -19.1 3.3 -2.1 EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.7 -1.2 -1.8 Current Account Balance (in US$ bn) -25.3 -45.9 -75.4 Trade Balance (in US$ bn) 49.1 42.8 49.2 Foreign Direct Investment (in US$ bn) 60.8 71.0 88.2 Terms of Trade (% change yoy, + improvement) -10.1 4.4 3.4 DEBT INDICATORS Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 21.6 18.3 18.1 Public (% of GDP) 11.4 9.9 9.9 Private (% of GDP) 10.2 8.4 8.2 Source: Citi. 12

América Latina En el 2010, las economías latinoamericanas van a enfrentar los siguientes desafíos: Desafío 1: Presiones a la apreciación de los tipos de cambio reales debido a US dólar más débil, suba de precios de commodities y recuperación del nivel de actividad. Foreign Exchange Forecasts vs. Fair Value and Forwards 2009 2010 Fair Value Spot Rate Year-end Fair Value Year-end Fair Value - Today Forward Forward Forecast Year-end Forecast Year-end USD/ARS 3.82 3.88 3.90 4.09 3.83 4.55 4.28 4.26 USD/BRL 1.72 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.73 1.80 1.56 1.85 USD/CLP 524 532 540 536 523 550 540 519 USD/COP 1,978 2,190 1,850 2,180 1,984 1,900 2,189 2,063 USD/MXN 13.37 13.29 12.80 13.60 13.43 13.10 14.09 14.08 USD/PEN 2.90 2.97 2.85 2.99 2.90 2.70 2.68 2.90 13

América Latina Desafío 2: Inflación en alza. En algunos países, vemos niveles de inflación cercanos convergiendo hacia las metas anuales ya para el 2Q o 3Q, posiblemente forzando suba temprana de tasas (antes que la Fed). Citi’s Interest Rate Calendar: Who’s Tightening, When? Current Cumulative Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Rate (%) Rise Chile 0.5 0 +50 +75 +100 +75 +300 Peru 1.3 0 0 +75 +75 +75 +225 Brazil 8.8 0 0 +100 +100 0 +200 Colombia 4.0 0 +25 +75 +75 +25 +200 Mexico 4.5 0 0 0 +50 +50 +100 14

América Latina Desafío 3: Deterioro en cuentas fiscales y cuenta corriente. En Brasil, Argentina y Venezuela, gran parte del estímulo consistió en incremento del gasto corriente (salarios y empleo) que es inflexible a la baja y que va a demandar suba de impuestos en el mediano plazo. Deterioro en la cuenta corriente regional por: dólar débil, mayor demanda interna y desequilibrios fiscales. 3.0 Current Account (% of GDP) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -1.0 -0.5 -1.2 -2.0 -2.1 -3.0 -2.8 -4.0 15 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009F 2010F

América Latina Riesgos a Monitorear en 2010  Suba temprana (?) de la tasa de Fed funds Unemployment Rate in Months Surrounding Beginning of Fed Tightening 11% 11 11% 11 10 10 2010F 9 9 8 8 1983 1994 7 7 6 6 2004 5 5 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 +12 16

América Latina  Freno a la expansión económica china GFCF/GDP of Various Countries Credit and GDP in China (CNY, bn) 45% 50,000 China 40% Japan GDP 40,000 Germany 35% South Korea Domestic Credit 30,000 30% 20,000 25% 10,000 20% 15% 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 17

América Latina Cuellos de botella por desinversión en el sector energético durante la recesión: Cuellos de botella ponen freno a la recuperación Venezuela, Ecuador, República Dominicana y Perú en riesgo  Incertidumbre política en Brasil  Corriente de El Niño 18

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12 - Alberto Ades

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