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Cisco Visual Networking Index(VNI) Global Mobile Data TrafficForecast UpdateMarch 2012© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. ...
Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict                        global traffic growth. This study ...
More Mobile Connections                                                     Faster Mobile Speeds          More Mobile User...
By 2016, global mobiledata traffic will reach anannual run rate of 130exabytes per year.                                  ...
12                                               78% CAGR 2011–2016                                               10      ...
12                                           78% CAGR 2011–2016                                                           ...
12                                        78% CAGR 2011–2016                                                             B...
*                                               12                                                  78% CAGR 2011–2016    ...
In 2011, global mobiledata traffic more thandoubled (2.3X growth) forthe fourth year in a row,despite economicuncertainty,...
100%                                        90%                                        80%                                ...
16                                                                  Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices                   ...
45                                               40           Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices            16%         ...
By 2016, 60 percent ofmobile users (3 billionpeople) will belong tothe Gigabyte Club,generating more thanone gigabyte of m...
2011                          2016                                                             92 MB                   1.2...
60%                  Percentage of top 1 percent                                                50%                    Top...
14                                                                          1.3                     Top 20%               ...
45%                                                40%              Month 10                                              ...
3.0                                                2.5                                                             Month 2...
By 2016, there will be1.4 mobile connections(devices and M2M) forevery member of theworld’s population.     Source: Cisco ...
100%                                                             8%       12%                                       90%   ...
12                                                 78% CAGR 2011–2016                                                     ...
Smartphone     =   35 X   (monthly basic mobile                                                                           ...
2011            2016                                                           MBs per Month   MBs per Month             N...
600                                      86% CAGR 2010–2015                                                500            ...
By 2016, the amountof mobile data trafficgenerated by tablets(13 EBs) will be nearly2X the total amount ofglobal mobile da...
12                                               78% CAGR 2011–2016                                                       ...
400                                                                                              353 MB                   ...
By 2016, nearly three-fourth’s (71%) of theworld’s mobile datatraffic will be video.Mobile video trafficwill double everyy...
CAGR   (kb p s )                                               2011     2012    2013     2014     2015     2016     2011-2...
12                                                              4G Traffic                                               1...
In 2011, a 4Gconnection generated2.4 GB/mo, 28X higherthan the 86 MB/mo fornon-4G connections.     Source: Cisco Visual Ne...
2.0                                                                                       42% CAGR 2011–2016              ...
4.5                                                                                       43% CAGR 2011–2016              ...
Global Mobile Data Traffic              By 2016, mobile data traffic will reach 10.8 EBs/month (130 EBs annually).Global M...
Public VNI Content:www.cisco.com/go/vni•         News / press releases•         White papers•         FAQs•         Free a...
Thank you.© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Public   36
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Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011-2016

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Transcript of "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011-2016"

  1. 1. Cisco Visual Networking Index(VNI) Global Mobile Data TrafficForecast UpdateMarch 2012© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Cisco Public 1
  2. 2. Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers. Global Forecast Global Mobile Data Speed Data Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 2
  3. 3. More Mobile Connections Faster Mobile Speeds More Mobile Users More Mobile Video Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 3
  4. 4. By 2016, global mobiledata traffic will reach anannual run rate of 130exabytes per year. • 130X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000 130 Exabytes • 33 Billion DVDs is equal to: • 813 Quadrillion SMS text messages Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public 4
  5. 5. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 10 10.8 EB per mo Exabytes per Month 8 6 6.9 EB per mo 4 4.2 EB per mo 2 2.4 EB 0.6 EB 1.3 EB per mo per mo per mo 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 5
  6. 6. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 10.8 10 Exabytes per Month 8 6.9 6 6.3 4 2 0.6 0.6 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 6
  7. 7. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 Business 10 Consumer 23.1% Exabytes per Month 8 6 76.9% 4 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 7
  8. 8. * 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 Middle East and Africa (MEA) 5.88% 10 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) 6.54% Latin America (LATAM) 6.83% Exabytes per Month 8 North America (NA) 18.18% Western Europe (WE) Asia Pacific (APAC) 6 22.56% 4 40.01% 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 * Includes Japan Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 8
  9. 9. In 2011, global mobiledata traffic more thandoubled (2.3X growth) forthe fourth year in a row,despite economicuncertainty, continuedtraffic offload, and thebroader adoption oftiered pricing. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public Cisco 9
  10. 10. 100% 90% 80% 45% 54% 70% 61% 66% 69% 71% 60% 50% 40% 30% 55% 46% 20% 39% 34% 31% 29% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic Mobile Cloud Traffic© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 10
  11. 11. 16 Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices 14 Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices 12 22% Exabytes per Month 10 8 6 78% 4 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 11
  12. 12. 45 40 Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices 16% Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices 35 Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic from All Portable Devices 4% Exabytes per Month 30 25 20 80% 15 10 5 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 12
  13. 13. By 2016, 60 percent ofmobile users (3 billionpeople) will belong tothe Gigabyte Club,generating more thanone gigabyte of mobiledata traffic per month.In 2011, 0.5 percent ofmobile users belongedto the Gigabyte Club. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public Cisco 13
  14. 14. 2011 2016 92 MB 1.2 GB Traffic/month Traffic/month 10 Video Clips 3 Video Clips 5 Videos 5 Audio tracks 50 Audio tracks 1 Video call 3 Video calls 5 App Downloads 10 App Downloads© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 14
  15. 15. 60% Percentage of top 1 percent 50% Top 1 percent to total MB/mo 40% 30% 52% 20% 24% 10% 0% Month 1 Month 21 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 15
  16. 16. 14 1.3 Top 20% 12 (102% Y/Y) 2.0 Gigabytes per Month 10 Top 10% 0.6 3.0 (81% Y/Y) 8 1.1 6 1.8 Top 5% (64% Y/Y) 4 6.9 5.0 Top 1% 2 (37% Y/Y) 0 2010 2011 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 16
  17. 17. 45% 40% Month 10 35% Month 21 Percentage of Users 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Greater than Greater than Greater than Greater than Greater than 5 GB 2 GB 200 MB 20 MB 1 MB Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 17
  18. 18. 3.0 2.5 Month 21 Month 20 Gigabytes per Month Month 19 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Android Apple Windows Blackberry Proprietary Symbian Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 18
  19. 19. By 2016, there will be1.4 mobile connections(devices and M2M) forevery member of theworld’s population. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 19
  20. 20. 100% 8% 12% 90% 15% 19% 22% 25% 80% 70% 60% 50% 92% 88% 40% 85% 81% 78% 75% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 One Mobile Device 2 or More Mobile Devices© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 20
  21. 21. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 Other Portable Devices (2.2%) M2M (4.7%) 10 Home Gateways (4.8%) Exabytes per Month Non-Smartphones (5.7%) 8 Tablets (10.0%) Laptops and Netbooks (24.2%) 6 Smartphones (48.3%) 4 2 (Figures in legend refer to traffic 0 share in 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016.) Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 21
  22. 22. Smartphone = 35 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Handheld Gaming Console = 60 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Tablet = 121 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Mobile Phone Projector = 300 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Laptop = 498 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic) Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 22
  23. 23. 2011 2016 MBs per Month MBs per Month Non-Smartphone 4.3 108 M2M 71 266 Smartphone 150 2,576 E-Book Reader 750 2,880 Tablet 517 4,223 Laptop 2,131 6,942© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 23
  24. 24. 600 86% CAGR 2010–2015 500 508 PB per mo Petabytes per Month 400 300 200 100 23 PB per mo 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 24
  25. 25. By 2016, the amountof mobile data trafficgenerated by tablets(13 EBs) will be nearly2X the total amount ofglobal mobile datatraffic generated in2011 (7 EBs). Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Cisco 25
  26. 26. 12 78% CAGR 2011–2016 Mobile VoIP (0.3%) 10 Mobile Gaming (1.1%) Mobile File Sharing (3.3%) Exabytes per Month Mobile M2M (4.7%) 8 Mobile Web/Data (20.0%) Mobile Video (70.5%) 6 4 2 (Figures in legend refer to traffic 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 share in 2016.) Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 26
  27. 27. 400 353 MB 350 Netflix 300 Megabytes per Month 109 250 Pandora Pandora 200 55 55 Facebook Facebook Facebook 149 MB 40 40 40 150 Web Web Web Web 100 89 89 89 89 50 Email Email Email Email 60 60 60 60 0 Email+Web +Facebook +Pandora +Netflix Source: Arbitron Mobile, 2012 Cisco Public 27© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  28. 28. By 2016, nearly three-fourth’s (71%) of theworld’s mobile datatraffic will be video.Mobile video trafficwill double everyyear between 2011and 2016. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public Cisco 28
  29. 29. CAGR (kb p s ) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011-2016 Glo b a l Global Speed – 315 504 792 1,236 1,908 2,873 56% Avg. Mobile Connection Global Speed – 1,344 1,829 2,425 3,166 4,102 5,244 31% Avg. Smartphone Connection By Re g io n Middle East & Africa 89 206 434 850 1,555 2,618 97% Central & Eastern Europe 205 396 739 1,316 2,228 3,476 76% Latin America 125 227 396 673 1,082 1,627 67% Western Europe 667 1,196 1,967 2,960 4,163 5,549 53% Asia-Pacific 337 497 732 1,101 1,697 2,608 51% North America 1,138 1,712 2,485 3,531 4,923 6,785 43% Source: Cisco Global Internet Speed Test (GIST) results and other independent speed test findings© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 29
  30. 30. 12 4G Traffic 10 Non-4G Traffic 36% Exabytes per Month 8 6 4 64% 2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 30
  31. 31. In 2011, a 4Gconnection generated2.4 GB/mo, 28X higherthan the 86 MB/mo fornon-4G connections. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Public Cisco 31
  32. 32. 2.0 42% CAGR 2011–2016 1.5 1.62B Number of Devices (B) 1.0 0.5 280M 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 32
  33. 33. 4.5 43% CAGR 2011–2016 4.0 4.03B 3.5 Number of Devices (B) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 662M 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 33
  34. 34. Global Mobile Data Traffic By 2016, mobile data traffic will reach 10.8 EBs/month (130 EBs annually).Global Mobile Traffic Offload In 2011, 11% of mobile traffic was offloaded; by 2016, 22% will be offloaded.Global Mobile Cloud In 2011, cloud was 45% of mobile data traffic; will be 71% by 2016.Global Mobile Video By 2016, over 70% of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video.Global Mobile Network Speeds Mobile connection speeds will increase 9-fold from 2011 - 2016. Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 34
  35. 35. Public VNI Content:www.cisco.com/go/vni• News / press releases• White papers• FAQs• Free application• Traffic modeling tools• Additional resources Send questions to VNI team: traffic-inquiries@cisco.com Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2011 Cisco Cisco Public Confidential 35
  36. 36. Thank you.© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public 36

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