The document discusses the future of the generics industry and global spending on medicines. It notes that global spending on medicines will grow nearly $1.2 trillion by 2016, with generics contributing a greater share. Developed markets will see slower growth due to patent expiries and cost containment actions. Pharmerging markets' spending share will increase due to population and economic growth driving higher medicine use. Generics can help reduce costs and maintain access to affordable medicines in the short and long term by increasing efficiency and freeing up funds for new therapies. A long term strategy of expanding generic use can generate ongoing savings while maintaining patient access.

1. 16.00 – 17.00
The Future of the Generics
Industry
Facilitated by:
Luigi Martini
Panellists Include:
Ewan
Livesey
Alan
Sheppard
Kim
Kjornas

2. Global Spending on Medicines Outlook to 2016
Global spending on medicines annually will grow
to nearly $1.2 trillion by 2016, as the pharmerging
markets, biologics and generics contribute a
greater share of spending.
Developed markets will suffer due to patent expiries,
slower brand spending growth and increased cost
containment actions by payers.
Pharmerging markets share of spending will
increase as population and economic growth will
drive a dramatically higher use of medicines in these
markets with a demand for affordable therapies.
There will be an accelerated shift in spending to
generics.

3. Where generics can help in the current environment
Environment
• Financial
crisis
and
implica.ons
• Growing
Pa.ent
expecta.ons
Generic
medicines
Short
term
Cost
reduc.on
and
access
to
affordable
medicines
Long
term
• Rapidly
evolving
technologies
Increase
efficiency
and
provide
headroom
for
spend
on
new
therapies
Pressure
on
healthcare
systems
Socio
economic
factors
• Ageing
popula.on
/
chronic
disease
• Medical
advancements
• Specialty
care
/
Biologics

4. The way ahead?
Affordability of healthcare will remain a challenge for several
years to come. Expenditure on medicines represents around
20% of the cost with expenditure on generic medicines being
only 20% of this spend. As such generic medicines should be
seen as a potential solution to the problem
A longer term strategy of increasing usage of generics will
generate ongoing savings and maintain access to medicines
for patients
Expanding the use of generic medicines allows for treatment of
more patients within budgets without changing therapeutic
approach
Lowering prices threaten sustainability of the industry
Fair margins within the supply chain can be a stabilizing factor