The Future of Media                        In a Tablet World                        jo@dearmedia.bemaandag 24 oktober 11  ...
•     a digital consulting company, working for                   European clients             •     founded in 2009 by Jo...
•   Founding Partner of Dear Media (www.dearmedia.be)                        •   Active in interactive since 1993 as (co-)...
Available in bookstores and                        on                        www.MediaMorgen.commaandag 24 oktober 11     ...
twitter.com/jcaudronmaandag 24 oktober 11                          5
To get this started...             • Who is using?                 • Who is using?                   - Twitter            ...
Don’t believe anything                          you will hear in the                        following presentation!maandag...
A short history of everything            Analogue      Digital                          Connected (internet)           Soc...
The Perfect Storm                        Authority Shifting                                          Shift of             ...
Media 1.0maandag 24 oktober 11               10
SOCIAL OBJECT                                     The Flower is the (potential) social                                    ...
What are                        social media?maandag 24 oktober 11                   12
Radiomaandag 24 oktober 11                                                                                          TV    ...
maandag 24 oktober 11   14
Old-school   Not adequate,                 top-down     future proof, ...                 No debate                       ...
Old-school   Who knows the             Not adequate,                 top-down     rules about...            future proof, ...
7.000.000.000maandag 24 oktober 11                   17
2.000.000.000                        7.000.000.000maandag 24 oktober 11                   18
1.300.000.000                        2.000.000.000                        7.000.000.000maandag 24 oktober 11              ...
5.000.000.000                        1.300.000.000                        2.000.000.000                        7.000.000.0...
The Future is     ‘Mobile’maandag 24 oktober 11   21
Mobile is the              Biggest!                                       nes.                            obile p ho      ...
maandag 24 oktober 11   23
300                                                                   225      In Q4 2010 7,3% of all PC’s sold globally, ...
So, Traditional Media are Dead?              No, but...maandag 24 oktober 11               25
What might impact TV? Timeshifting!                                           How big is time shifted                     ...
What might impact TV? Direct OTT Distribution!maandag 24 oktober 11                                          27
maandag 24 oktober 11   28
What might impact TV? The People!                 They don’t watch less TV.          But they are changing the very       ...
Fixing TV   TV must mix linear with On Demand                               TV must mix and free-to-air with pay-TV       ...
What about newspapers?maandag 24 oktober 11                  31
What about newspapers?                                       • Print newspapers are no longer to                          ...
maandag 24 oktober 11   33
Will new technology help?maandag 24 oktober 11                     34
The future of           Magazines?maandag 24 oktober 11      35
Fixing Print           Print will continue to exist, but digital will rule                              Expect newspapers ...
About Tabletsmaandag 24 oktober 11                   37
Source: Internet Trends October 18, 2011, Mary Meeker KPCB.maandag 24 oktober 11                                          ...
An Explosion of Magazines and Newspapersmaandag 24 oktober 11                                    39
The Good             •     People actually read on tablets                   -    long texts                   -    books ...
The Bad             • No one is actually making good magazine/                   newspaper apps today             •     Th...
The Ugly                             Censorship                             Economic                             abuse of ...
(Digital) Publishing &                        Presence in the New                             Landscapemaandag 24 oktober ...
A traditional (mobile) value chain...maandag 24 oktober 11                                 44
The New Mobile Value Chain     Techno Layers                                           “Molog Ecosystem”                  ...
Frequency/Amplitude Model             • Traditionally, all Media have their own characteristics                   -    fre...
Frequency/Amplitude Model              It is important to be where your users are. Operate on each frequency users might e...
Frequency/Amplitude Model               So, who is operating where?                                             Live Web (...
The future: “Feed Publishing”                                          Channels                                           ...
The future: “Feed Publishing”                                          Channels                                           ...
The future: “Feed Publishing”       It looks like a magazine   It browses like a magazine        It reads like a magazine ...
Monetization of Context and                         Experiencemaandag 24 oktober 11                           52
We have never paid for CONTENT             •     We never paid for news             •     We never paid for movies        ...
We have paid for experience and context             •     We never paid for news, we paid for newspapers             •    ...
We will pay for experiences             • Create great experiences, convenience of delivery and people will pay           ...
Things to take away ...maandag 24 oktober 11                             56
Want to be ready?                                                        Change your view on                              ...
Things to take away                        Everything is becoming digital, so is your business, whatever it is            ...
2012, what does                        she want?                        Can we deliver?                             Great ...
Beware of Macro-Myopia*                         *the trend to overestimate the impact of change on the short term         ...
The Future of Media                        In a Tablet World                        jo@dearmedia.bemaandag 24 oktober 11  ...
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Fixing the media Vanden Broele

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Fixing the media Vanden Broele

  1. 1. The Future of Media In a Tablet World jo@dearmedia.bemaandag 24 oktober 11 1
  2. 2. • a digital consulting company, working for European clients • founded in 2009 by Jo Caudron • our mission is to help find a new balance between the certainties of your traditional business and the opportunities of innovations in (digital) media • our scope is everything in the digital space, with focus on social, mobile, tablets, location, connected TV, new radio, ... • We work for large European clientsmaandag 24 oktober 11 2
  3. 3. • Founding Partner of Dear Media (www.dearmedia.be) • Active in interactive since 1993 as (co-)founder of Dear Media, ONE Agency, theOriginals, tvAgency, xCA, The Reference, ...) • Media thinker, innovator & strategist • Interested in all things digital, social & mobile, new media & connected TV • Consultant, Entrepreneur, Speaker, Writer • Vice-President IAB Belgium • Contact • jo@dearmedia.be Jo • http://jocaudron.me (for the personal stuff) Caudron • http://www.linkedin.com/in/jocaudron (for the business stuff) • www.twitter.com/jcaudron (for my technology newsfeed)maandag 24 oktober 11 3
  4. 4. Available in bookstores and on www.MediaMorgen.commaandag 24 oktober 11 4
  5. 5. twitter.com/jcaudronmaandag 24 oktober 11 5
  6. 6. To get this started... • Who is using? • Who is using? - Twitter - an iPhone - Facebook, Netlog, ... - an Android - LinkedIn, Plaxo - a Blackberry - Email - a Nokia, Samsung, Sony - LBS Ericsson, ... - Augmented Reality - a tablet (iPad 1, iPad 2, Android, ...)maandag 24 oktober 11 6
  7. 7. Don’t believe anything you will hear in the following presentation!maandag 24 oktober 11 7
  8. 8. A short history of everything Analogue Digital Connected (internet) Social Everything is getting mobilemaandag 24 oktober 11 8
  9. 9. The Perfect Storm Authority Shifting Shift of Content Explosion Place Shifting Control Time Shiftingmaandag 24 oktober 11 9
  10. 10. Media 1.0maandag 24 oktober 11 10
  11. 11. SOCIAL OBJECT The Flower is the (potential) social object The mainstream media are the smell of the flower The bee is “spreading the word” and has the real power Level I: Sites, blogs, feeds, widgets Level II: Closed networks (Facebook, Netlog, ...) Level III: Through individuals (e-mail, Twitter, ...) Media 2.0maandag 24 oktober 11 11
  12. 12. What are social media?maandag 24 oktober 11 12
  13. 13. Radiomaandag 24 oktober 11 TV Print Billboards From ... DM Social Media Marketing & Communication Sales The sky is the limit... Service & Support HR ... to IT Social Business PR & External Commun. R&D & Enterprise 2.013
  14. 14. maandag 24 oktober 11 14
  15. 15. Old-school Not adequate, top-down future proof, ... No debate Impulse, open, Damage public, direct control response, ...maandag 24 oktober 11 15
  16. 16. Old-school Who knows the Not adequate, top-down rules about... future proof, ... No debate • Privacy? • Copyrights • Security (making pictures of public Impulse, open, Damage infrastructure, ...) public, direct control response, ...maandag 24 oktober 11 16
  17. 17. 7.000.000.000maandag 24 oktober 11 17
  18. 18. 2.000.000.000 7.000.000.000maandag 24 oktober 11 18
  19. 19. 1.300.000.000 2.000.000.000 7.000.000.000maandag 24 oktober 11 19
  20. 20. 5.000.000.000 1.300.000.000 2.000.000.000 7.000.000.000maandag 24 oktober 11 20
  21. 21. The Future is ‘Mobile’maandag 24 oktober 11 21
  22. 22. Mobile is the Biggest! nes. obile p ho n m ld o ver 5 billio re so illio n we n e! 1 b r alo las t yea themaandag 24 oktober 11 22
  23. 23. maandag 24 oktober 11 23
  24. 24. 300 225 In Q4 2010 7,3% of all PC’s sold globally, where iPads ... (source: IDC). 150 By 2014 almost 500.000.000 tablets will be sold. 75 Apple will continue to dominate the market for the next coming years. 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014maandag 24 oktober 11 24
  25. 25. So, Traditional Media are Dead? No, but...maandag 24 oktober 11 25
  26. 26. What might impact TV? Timeshifting! How big is time shifted viewing today? • 2,5% (VRT) • 20% (VTM telenovelas)- 30% • 10% (RTL) It IS growing. How much loss of advertising can commercial TV digest?maandag 24 oktober 11 26
  27. 27. What might impact TV? Direct OTT Distribution!maandag 24 oktober 11 27
  28. 28. maandag 24 oktober 11 28
  29. 29. What might impact TV? The People! They don’t watch less TV. But they are changing the very nature of the DNA of (commercial) TV. They might even pay for TV, but maybe not to you. They might stay loyal to TV-brands, (near) linear TV, ... but if they run away from your advertising, pay-TV, ... you still have an issue.maandag 24 oktober 11 29
  30. 30. Fixing TV TV must mix linear with On Demand TV must mix and free-to-air with pay-TV TV must be on all platforms providing unique, compelling experiences TV must create a wider offering with more content faster and deeper TV must create a mix of local and international content and compete with iTunes and the likesmaandag 24 oktober 11 30
  31. 31. What about newspapers?maandag 24 oktober 11 31
  32. 32. What about newspapers? • Print newspapers are no longer to best “format” to bring the “latest” news • The daily frequency can not compete to online newspapers • They have cannibalized on their own business: free newssites • Classifieds are lost completely • Advertisers believe in online and new advertising formats and are slowly towards online • Yet traditional online advertising does not work as hoped for, is worth less, thus is not compensating for offline loss • Readers are less loyal (subscriptions) and become weekend-consumersmaandag 24 oktober 11 32
  33. 33. maandag 24 oktober 11 33
  34. 34. Will new technology help?maandag 24 oktober 11 34
  35. 35. The future of Magazines?maandag 24 oktober 11 35
  36. 36. Fixing Print Print will continue to exist, but digital will rule Expect newspapers and magazines to become similar formats It’s not just about tablets, it’s all you can dream of Find a new balance between slow (destination: deep, quality) and fast (stream: instant, short, quantity) Let go of publication dates, the time is NOW Your inspiration should not be “The Daily”, it should be “Flipboard”maandag 24 oktober 11 36
  37. 37. About Tabletsmaandag 24 oktober 11 37
  38. 38. Source: Internet Trends October 18, 2011, Mary Meeker KPCB.maandag 24 oktober 11 38
  39. 39. An Explosion of Magazines and Newspapersmaandag 24 oktober 11 39
  40. 40. The Good • People actually read on tablets - long texts - books - magazines and newspapers • Photography works even better on tablet screens • Make content interactive • Browsing is very natural • Advertising is easy to create - start from print ads - go deeper to interactive ads • Huge opportunities for brands toomaandag 24 oktober 11 40
  41. 41. The Bad • No one is actually making good magazine/ newspaper apps today • They closely follow the print logic and forget all about the new digital opportunities • It’s often not core business for our (local) publishers • Most publications don’t really work from a business perspectivemaandag 24 oktober 11 41
  42. 42. The Ugly Censorship Economic abuse of power Privacy issues +maandag 24 oktober 11 42
  43. 43. (Digital) Publishing & Presence in the New Landscapemaandag 24 oktober 11 43
  44. 44. A traditional (mobile) value chain...maandag 24 oktober 11 44
  45. 45. The New Mobile Value Chain Techno Layers “Molog Ecosystem” (Apple, Google, Nokia, …) Operator Customer (no longer interesting: protocols, stacks, …) Transport of data, mobile communication as commodity product) Hand Store -sets •Features Free •Content OS •Payment Web Publisher Web Content •large screens •small screens •high-input •large screens (free, ad-driven) •low-input •fast connection •no input •slower connection •offline •offline Magazine Apps Brand / Topic (cfr. SimpliMag, magazine- Mobile Context Phone Tablet e-Reader ? metaphor) •Me (personal) •Us (family) •Me (personal) Feature Apps •Here (LBS) •Home & Everywhere •Here (LBS) (cfr. EPG, culi, games, video, …) •Now (fast) •long contact •Now (fast) •Fast (short contact) •Engage, enjoy, •Slow (long contact) experiencemaandag 24 oktober 11 45
  46. 46. Frequency/Amplitude Model • Traditionally, all Media have their own characteristics - frequency (live, daily, weekly, monthly, ...) - depth/amplitude (breaking, short, articles, dossiers, specials, ...) - type product (text, audiovisual, ...) - type carrier (paper, site, mobile, tablets, TV, TV-apps, ...) • In the new digital world - media are increasingly moving into in each others territory - media are moving away from simple “mono-channel”, “mono- proposition” models to complex mixes - media-brands are becoming multi-channels, multi-media experiencesmaandag 24 oktober 11 46
  47. 47. Frequency/Amplitude Model It is important to be where your users are. Operate on each frequency users might expect you to be. Live Web (Twitter, Fb, RSS, ...) News Feed (newssites, Belga, ...) Daily News (newspapers, ...) Weekly/Monthly (magazines) Irregular (specials, apps, ...)maandag 24 oktober 11 47
  48. 48. Frequency/Amplitude Model So, who is operating where? Live Web (Twitter, Fb, RSS, ...) News Feed (newssites, Belga, ...) Daily News (newspapers, ...) Weekly/Monthly (magazines) Irregular (specials, apps, ...)maandag 24 oktober 11 48
  49. 49. The future: “Feed Publishing” Channels Magazine Apps “live” “Snapshot” “hourly” “Daily” “Weekly/ Monthly” “Ad-Hoc” Our Inspirationmaandag 24 oktober 11 49
  50. 50. The future: “Feed Publishing” Channels Magazine Apps “live” “Snapshot” “hourly” “Daily” “Weekly/ Monthly” “Ad-Hoc” Our Inspirationmaandag 24 oktober 11 50
  51. 51. The future: “Feed Publishing” It looks like a magazine It browses like a magazine It reads like a magazine It has text, images, video, ... But it is just a live, (paid-for) web-feed It’s “feed publishing”maandag 24 oktober 11 51
  52. 52. Monetization of Context and Experiencemaandag 24 oktober 11 52
  53. 53. We have never paid for CONTENT • We never paid for news • We never paid for movies • We never paid for TV • We never paid for football • We never paid for musicmaandag 24 oktober 11 53
  54. 54. We have paid for experience and context • We never paid for news, we paid for newspapers • We never paid for movies, we paid for cinema or rental • We never paid for TV, we pay for “Ooit Gemist” (VOD) • We never paid for football, we paid for being in the arena • We never paid for music, we paid for a CD, or instant availability of ALL music • So we don’t pay for “online”. Be honest, what online experience is really worth paying for?maandag 24 oktober 11 54
  55. 55. We will pay for experiences • Create great experiences, convenience of delivery and people will pay • Even for stuff that is also available for free • Don’t forget your top-tasksmaandag 24 oktober 11 55
  56. 56. Things to take away ...maandag 24 oktober 11 56
  57. 57. Want to be ready? Change your view on advertising Start using social networks Get a decent Get on Twitter smartphone Get a tabletmaandag 24 oktober 11 57
  58. 58. Things to take away Everything is becoming digital, so is your business, whatever it is Social is the next logical step in the path of digital evolution The future of the internet and social will be mobile The future of mobile will be everything You need a plan NOW to start dealing with this Actually, you don’t need a plan, you need to plan (continuously) Embrace the future now, but don’t overdo it ;-)maandag 24 oktober 11 58
  59. 59. 2012, what does she want? Can we deliver? Great experiences, great offer, great price, QoSmaandag 24 oktober 11 59
  60. 60. Beware of Macro-Myopia* *the trend to overestimate the impact of change on the short term and to underestimate the impact of change on the long term. Don’t say I didn’t warn you ;-)maandag 24 oktober 11 60
  61. 61. The Future of Media In a Tablet World jo@dearmedia.bemaandag 24 oktober 11 61
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