TechnologyOvershooting
Christian Sandström holds a PhD from ChalmersUniversity of Technology, Sweden. He writes and speaksabout disruptive innova...
This presentation will discusssome of the limitations of the     Technology S-curve.
First, let’s briefly review the           concept of a       technology S-curve.       A more completeintroduction can be ...
Performance              Time
Performance A technology’s  performanceevolves slowly in the beginning.                    Time
Performance A technology’s                      At some point, a  performance                       breakthroughevolves sl...
Performance        Limits of what is scientifically possible                    are reached and performance doesn’t       ...
When one technology is     displaced by anothertechnology, the pattern might   look something like this:
Performance              Time
Performance              Time
The concept can thus be applied      in order to compare technologies and understand   when one technology will     displa...
However, there are somelimitations, and the Technology     S-curve can in fact be          misleading.
Consider thefollowing example:
The graph below suggests that  mobile phone cameras are increasingly used instead of       DSLR cameras…
And perhaps even moreevidently, mobile phone cameras are displacing   compact cameras.
The Technology S-curve would  predict that a technology is   more likely to be displaced when it has reached the limitsof ...
But compact cameras have notreached this limit – in fact theyare becoming better and better         all the time.
But compact cameras have notreached this limit – in fact theyare becoming better and better         all the time.Yet still...
This simple example illustrates one of the greatest problems with the Technology S-curve:
This simple example illustrates one of the greatest problems with the Technology S-curve:it doesn’t take the market into  ...
Another problem:It is one-dimensional, but technologies need to be compared across several        dimensions.
Let’s try to map compactcameras and mobile phones in a         different way!
We’ll introduce anotherperformance dimension along          the X-axis.
Performance 1
Performance 1                Performance 2
Image Quality                Portability
We also try to take the marketinto consideration somehow.
Image Quality                Portability
Image Quality                 Image Quality                customers need                   Portability
Image Quality    Up here, image quality is not creating                    any additional customer value.                W...
Now, let’s try again to comparemobile and compact cameras.
Image Quality                 Image Quality                customers need                   Portability
Image Quality       By 2005, compact cameras offered good      image quality and were easy to bring along                 ...
Image Quality       By 2005, compact cameras offered good      image quality and were easy to bring along                 ...
Image Quality       By 2005, compact cameras offered good      image quality and were easy to bring along                 ...
The image quality of bothproducts then improves over    the following years.
What happens?
Image Quality                 Image Quality                customers need                   Portability
Image Quality                 Image Quality                customers need                   Portability
Image Quality                 Increased image quality does not                result in additional customer value!        ...
Image Quality                 Increased image quality does not                result in additional customer value!        ...
Image Quality                 Increased image quality does not                result in additional customer value!        ...
Image Quality                        Increased image quality does not                       result in additional customer ...
The phenomenon is called’Technology overshooting’, and  refers to when technologieshave not reached their peak of    the S...
Find out more:www.christiansandstrom.org
Technology overshooting
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Technology overshooting

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An introduction to technology overshooting and some criticism of the Technology S-curve.

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Technology overshooting

  1. 1. TechnologyOvershooting
  2. 2. Christian Sandström holds a PhD from ChalmersUniversity of Technology, Sweden. He writes and speaksabout disruptive innovation and technological change.
  3. 3. This presentation will discusssome of the limitations of the Technology S-curve.
  4. 4. First, let’s briefly review the concept of a technology S-curve. A more completeintroduction can be found here.
  5. 5. Performance Time
  6. 6. Performance A technology’s performanceevolves slowly in the beginning. Time
  7. 7. Performance A technology’s At some point, a performance breakthroughevolves slowly in happens and it now the beginning. improves rapidly. Time
  8. 8. Performance Limits of what is scientifically possible are reached and performance doesn’t increase much more. A technology’s At some point, a performance breakthroughevolves slowly in happens and it now the beginning. improves rapidly. Time
  9. 9. When one technology is displaced by anothertechnology, the pattern might look something like this:
  10. 10. Performance Time
  11. 11. Performance Time
  12. 12. The concept can thus be applied in order to compare technologies and understand when one technology will displace another one.
  13. 13. However, there are somelimitations, and the Technology S-curve can in fact be misleading.
  14. 14. Consider thefollowing example:
  15. 15. The graph below suggests that mobile phone cameras are increasingly used instead of DSLR cameras…
  16. 16. And perhaps even moreevidently, mobile phone cameras are displacing compact cameras.
  17. 17. The Technology S-curve would predict that a technology is more likely to be displaced when it has reached the limitsof what is scientifically possible.
  18. 18. But compact cameras have notreached this limit – in fact theyare becoming better and better all the time.
  19. 19. But compact cameras have notreached this limit – in fact theyare becoming better and better all the time.Yet still they’re being replaced…
  20. 20. This simple example illustrates one of the greatest problems with the Technology S-curve:
  21. 21. This simple example illustrates one of the greatest problems with the Technology S-curve:it doesn’t take the market into consideration.
  22. 22. Another problem:It is one-dimensional, but technologies need to be compared across several dimensions.
  23. 23. Let’s try to map compactcameras and mobile phones in a different way!
  24. 24. We’ll introduce anotherperformance dimension along the X-axis.
  25. 25. Performance 1
  26. 26. Performance 1 Performance 2
  27. 27. Image Quality Portability
  28. 28. We also try to take the marketinto consideration somehow.
  29. 29. Image Quality Portability
  30. 30. Image Quality Image Quality customers need Portability
  31. 31. Image Quality Up here, image quality is not creating any additional customer value. Who needs another megapixel when you have 10 already? Image Quality customers need Portability
  32. 32. Now, let’s try again to comparemobile and compact cameras.
  33. 33. Image Quality Image Quality customers need Portability
  34. 34. Image Quality By 2005, compact cameras offered good image quality and were easy to bring along Image Quality customers need Portability
  35. 35. Image Quality By 2005, compact cameras offered good image quality and were easy to bring along Image Quality customers need Portability
  36. 36. Image Quality By 2005, compact cameras offered good image quality and were easy to bring along Image Quality customers needMobile cameras offered lowerimage quality, but were more ’portable’ Portability
  37. 37. The image quality of bothproducts then improves over the following years.
  38. 38. What happens?
  39. 39. Image Quality Image Quality customers need Portability
  40. 40. Image Quality Image Quality customers need Portability
  41. 41. Image Quality Increased image quality does not result in additional customer value! Image Quality customers need Portability
  42. 42. Image Quality Increased image quality does not result in additional customer value! Image Quality customers need Portability
  43. 43. Image Quality Increased image quality does not result in additional customer value! Image Quality customers need Portability
  44. 44. Image Quality Increased image quality does not result in additional customer value! Image Quality customers needMobile cameras still offer worse image quality, but it is good enough. Also, they are easier to bring along. At this point, compact cameras will be replaced, this started to happen in 2005-2006… Portability
  45. 45. The phenomenon is called’Technology overshooting’, and refers to when technologieshave not reached their peak of the S-curve, but are stillreplaced because customers do not value additional performance.
  46. 46. Find out more:www.christiansandstrom.org

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