Ppt presentation on contracting with philphos & century with graph

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Ppt presentation on contracting with philphos & century with graph

  1. 1. <ul><li>EFFECTS ON THE INTERIM AGREEMENT </li></ul><ul><li>WITH </li></ul><ul><li>PHILPHOS & CENTURY * </li></ul>* Based on Hourly Average Spot Market Prices from April 23 to April 30, 2011
  2. 2. INTERIM AGREEMENT CUSTOMER TO BE CONTRACTED AGREEMENT Philphos 9.4 MW May – December 2011 = 0 MW January 2012 onwards= 9.7 MW Century 6.7 MW Incremental power demand from May to December 2011 (from 2.4223 to 6.7 MW)
  3. 3. PHILPHOS Scenario 1 To maximize nomination of contracted capacity equivalent to 9.4 MW Expected Result: Amount MEI's Payable to KSPC (252,689,146) MEI's Collectible from Philphos 0 MEI's Collectible from Market Operations 122,673,821 Total Payable in PhP (130,015,324)
  4. 4. PHILPHOS Scenario 2 To nominate zero (0) and pay the 75% of the Unnominated Quantity at the end of the year Expected Result: Amount MEI's Payable to KSPC 0 MEI's Collectible from Philphos 0 MEI's Payable to KSPC for UQ (193,137,739) Total Payable in PhP (193,137,739)
  5. 5. PHILPHOS Strategy in the Nomination of Hourly Contracted Quantity *If Forecasted Market Price is higher than 1.4017 P/kWh, Adopt Scenario 1: Maximize Nomination of Philphos @ 9.4 MW *If Forecasted Market Price is equal or lower than 1.4017 P/kWh, Adopt Scenario 2: Nominate Zero (0) and Pay the 75% of the Unlifted Quantity at the end of the year *To get the Break-even Spot Market Price of 5.9477 P/kWh the prevailing latest Average Spot Market Price must increase by 32% Expected Result: Amount MEI's Payable to KSPC (247,726,528) MEI's Collectible from Philphos 0 MEI's Collectible from M.O. 118,343,892 Total Payable in PhP (129,382,636)
  6. 6. PHILPHOS Hour 1 Hour 2 Hour 3 Hour 4 Hour 5 Hour 6 Hour 7 Hour 8 Hour 9 Hour 10 Hour 11 Hour 12 1.59 1.65 1.97 1.27 2.05 3.83 3.90 1.56 0.67 0.51 0.55 0.90 2.2975 2.2475 2.0041 2.6227 1.9521 1.2323 1.2137 2.3243 3.5636 3.9421 3.8375 3.1309 59% 65% 97% 27% 105% 283% 290% 56% -33% -49% -45% -10% Hour 13 Hour 14 Hour 15 Hour 16 Hour 17 Hour 18 Hour 19 Hour 20 Hour 21 Hour 22 Hour 23 Hour 24 Ave. 0.92 0.27 0.40 0.65 1.15 1.39 0.29 0.91 1.44 1.36 1.09 1.37 3.0952 4.6823 4.2571 3.6039 2.7710 2.4918 4.6032 3.1132 2.4353 2.5195 2.8520 2.5063 -8% -73% -60% -35% 15% 39% -71% -9% 44% 36% 9% 37% 32%
  7. 7. CENTURY Scenario 1 To maximize nomination of contracted capacity equivalent to 6.7 MW Expected Result: Amount MEI's Payable to KSPC (180,108,221) MEI's Collectible from Century 130,025,851 MEI's Collectible from Market Operations 23,309,018 Total Payable in Php (26,773,352)
  8. 8. CENTURY Scenario 2 To nominate the scheduled incremental consumption and pay the 75% of the Unnominated Quantity at the end of the year. Expected Result: Amount MEI's Payable to KSPC 0 MEI's Collectible from Century 0 MEI's Payable to KSPC for UQ (40,353,844) Total Payable in PhP (40,353,844)
  9. 9. CENTURY Strategy in the Nomination of Hourly Contracted Quantity *If Forecasted Market Price is higher than 1.5313 P/kWh, Adopt Scenario 1: Maximize Nomination of Century @ 6.7 MW *If Forecasted Market Price is equal or lower than 1.5313 P/kWh, Adopt Scenario 2: Nominate Zero (0) and Pay the 75% of the Unlifted Quantity at the end of the year *To get the Break-even Spot Market Price of 5.9329 P/kWh the prevailing latest Average Spot Market Price must increase by 32% Expected Result: Amount MEI's Payable to KSPC (168,462,023) MEI's Collectible from Philphos 130,025,851 MEI's Collectible from M.O. 20,222,792 Total Payable in PhP (18,213,380)
  10. 10. Comparison of Payables Philphos vs Century 9.4 MW Philphos Estimated Payable = 129,382,636 PhP (Scenario 1*) 6.7 MW Century Estimated Payable = 18,213,380 PhP (Scenario 1*) * - Trade in full with due consideration of the threshold price
  11. 11. Expenses for PHILPHOS <ul><li>MNE = 3.7255 P/kWh x 225,600 kWh x 63 days x 1.12 VAT </li></ul><ul><li>PR => MNE = P59,303,761 </li></ul><ul><li>Where: P3.7255 P/KWH = Average NPC TOU price in Visayas </li></ul><ul><li>225,600 kWh = (9400 kW x 24 Hours) daily market exposure of PHILPhos. </li></ul><ul><li>COMMITMENT FEE: </li></ul><ul><li>= ¼ * 1% (MNE) </li></ul><ul><li>= P148,259 </li></ul><ul><li>COMMISSION FEE: </li></ul><ul><li>= 1/8 * 1% (MNE) </li></ul><ul><li>= P74,130 </li></ul><ul><li>Total Commitment Fee & Commission Fee = P 222,389 </li></ul><ul><li> Total = P 59,526,150 </li></ul>Other Expenses to be Incurred
  12. 12. Expenses for CENTURY PEAK <ul><li>MNE = 3.7255 P/kWh x 100,800 kWh x 63 days x 1.12 VAT </li></ul><ul><li>PR => MNE = P16,771,152 </li></ul><ul><li>where: 100,800 kWh = (4200 kW x 24 Hours) market exposure of Century Peak. </li></ul><ul><li>COMMITMENT FEE: </li></ul><ul><li>= ¼ * 1% (MNE) </li></ul><ul><li>=P 66,244 </li></ul><ul><li>COMMISSION FEE: </li></ul><ul><li>= 1/8 * 1% (MNE) </li></ul><ul><li>= P 33,122 </li></ul><ul><li>Total Commitment Fee & Commission Fee = P 99,366 </li></ul><ul><li> Total = P 16,870,518 </li></ul>Other Expenses to be Incurred
  13. 13. Other Expenses to be Incurred 2.) KSPC Security Deposit (June – December 2011): = 10% of Contracted Monthly Energy x KSPC Contract Price with VAT = 0.10 x 21,090,000 kWh/mo x 5.334 P/kWh Security Deposit = P 11,249,406 per month Commitment Fee : = ¼ of 1% of Security Deposit = P 28,124 Commission Fee: 1/8 of 1% of Security Deposit = P 14,062 Total Commitment Fee & Commission Fee = P 42,186 per month Total = P 79,041,144 (for 7 months)
  14. 14. END OF PRESENTATION Thank you!
  15. 15. Century – Market Price & Threshold Comparison
  16. 16. Century – Needed Increase to meet price threshold
  17. 17. PHILPHOS – Market Price & Threshold Comparison
  18. 18. PHILPHOS – Needed Increase to meet price threshold

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