Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Food Security Situation in East and Southern Africa
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Introducing the official SlideShare app

Stunning, full-screen experience for iPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

Food Security Situation in East and Southern Africa

166
views

Published on

Published in: News & Politics, Business

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
166
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
5
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IN THE COMESA REGION 16th September, 2013 Addis Ababa Presentation by Chris Manyamba & Sheryl Hendriks Institute for Food, Nutrition and Well Being, University of Pretoria COMESA FIFTH JOINT TECHNICAL COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE, ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES MEETING
  • 2. Introduction-food security defined 1996 World Food Summit defined food security as: • When “all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy life” This implies: • Production of enough food • Access, acquisition and entitlement to purchase food • That food is safe to consume • Utilisation is efficient • Preferences and cultural prohibitions are met Absence of these elements leads to food insecurity
  • 3. Introduction • Food security and nutrition are high on the political agenda at the global, regional and national levels. • Global agenda: Group of 20 and (G-20); Rio+20, G8 • Continental: Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Programme (CAADP) • National: Policies and strategies • 870 million -undernourished in the period 2010–12. • 852 million in developing countries, children ~15% of the population). • 200 million children are stunted
  • 4. Background • Food Security-priority policy issue in all COMESA member states. • Chapter 18 of the COMESA Treaty (1994). • Recently, human rights approach by a number of governments-1948 UN Declaration of Human Rights • COMESA region –marred with poor development indicators (ReSAKSS, 2013) – Poverty Rates • 34% (Southern) • 37% (Eastern ) – AgGDP growth • 4.2 % (Eastern Africa) • 4.6% (Southern Africa) • Hunger is still a threat in COMESA – Most countries’ intake is less than the recommended Amount of 2100 calories/day (RESAKSS-ECA, 2011). • CAADP Framework for African Food Security (FAFS) –helping African countries reach a higher path of economic growth through agriculture-led development – Pillar 3. Increase Food Supply, Reduce Hunger and Improve Responses to Food Emergency Crises
  • 5. Progress towards Millennium Development Goal 1 Target already met or expected to be met by 2015 or prevalence <5% Progress insufficient to reach the target if prevailing trends persist No progress or deterioration Missing or insufficient data Not assessed
  • 6. Food Balance Sheet-total cereals (as of June 2013) …..significant uncovered deficit in most member states. 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Zimbabwe Zambia Uganda Tanzania Swaziland Sudan Rwanda Mauritius Malawi Madagascar Kenya Ethiopia Eritrea DRC Djibouti Comoros Burundi Domestic Availability Import Requirement Source: Own Calculations from FAOSTAT 2013.
  • 7. Estimated Numbers-Food Insecure (2012) ……..a large proportion of the population remain food insecure 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 Sudan Ethiopia South Sudan (not yet COMESA… Somalia (non COMESA member) Kenya Burundi Zimbabwe Malawi Mozambique (Non COMESA member) Swaziland Zambia 4.6 3.2 2.8 2.51 2.4 1.7 1.67 1.63 0.26 0.115 0.062 Population in millions Estimated No. of Food Insecure Persons-2012
  • 8. Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%) Decreasing child mortality and improving maternal health depend heavily on reducing malnutrition, which is responsible, directly or indirectly. Source of data: Measure DHS. ICF International, 2012. MEASURE DHS, WHO (2013) UNDERWEIGHT Low weight for age • Any protein-energy malnutrition • reflect the long-term health and nutritional experience of the child • Influenced by both – the height of the child (height-for-age) – and his or her weight (weight-for-height) STUNTING • Low height for age, • Chronic malnutrition • Effects on children – delayed motor development, – impaired cognitive function – poor school performance. WASTING • Very low weight for height • Severe acute malnutrition • visible severe wasting • Predictor of child mortality
  • 9. Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%) 28.8 57.7 5.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Burundi DHS-2010 25.1 45.5 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage DRC DHS-2007 19.5 48.3 8.3 17.5 51.1 4.7 11.4 44.2 2.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Rwanda DHS 2000 2005 2010 18.4 44.8 4.9 15.9 38.1 6.1 13.8 33.4 4.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Uganda DHS 2000-01 2006 2011 Source: Own Calculations Measure DHS data
  • 10. 15.8 35.7 6 16.1 35.3 6.7 0 10 20 30 40 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Kenya DHS 2003 2008-09 41.2 57.7 12.2 32.9 50.8 12.2 28.7 44.4 9.7 0 20 40 60 80 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Ethiopia DHS 2000 2005 2011 33.8 42.9 14.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Eritrea DHS-2002 3.7 23.4 3 5 22.9 4.86 28.9 7.2 0 10 20 30 40 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Egypt DHS 2000 2005 2008 Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%) Source: Own Calculations Measure DHS data
  • 11. 22.5 52.5 6 14.6 45.4 5.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Zambia DHS 2001-02 2007 10.3 33.6 7.5 13.2 34.6 6.9 9.7 32 3 0 10 20 30 40 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Zimbabwe DHS 1999 2005-06 2010-11 20.3 54.6 6.617.3 52.5 6 12.8 47.1 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Malawi DHS 2000 2004 2010 5.4 28.9 2.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Swaziland DHS-2006-7 Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%) Source: Own Calculations Measure DHS data
  • 12. 48 58 33 0 20 40 60 80 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Sudan 2006 8 32 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Libya 2007 45 53 42 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Djibouti 2006 3.7 23.4 3 5 22.9 4.86 28.9 7.2 0 10 20 30 40 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Egypt DHS 2000 2005 2008 Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%) Source: Own Calculations Measure DHS data
  • 13. 6 6 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Seychelles 1987-88 17 13 18 0 5 10 15 20 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Mauritius 1995 36.2 53.2 14.6 50.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Underweight Stunting Wasting Percentage Madagascar DHS 2003-04 2008-09 Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%)
  • 14. General Outlook -2013 East Africa • Staple food prices generally followed their seasonal trends in July. • Sorghum prices increased atypically in parts of Sudan and Ethiopia due to the recent late start of season in key surplus-producing areas. • Maize prices were stable or decreased in Tanzania and Uganda, and increased in Rwanda. Africa wide • Most countries have recorded higher numbers of acutely food insecure populations • ………..a much wider geographic distribution of affected areas compared to the past three years. • Estimate- 7.70 million people in the region (excluding the DRC) are at risk of food insecurity. Southern Africa • Drought in parts of southern Africa has reduced maize production and contributed to very high prices • Minimal food insecurity outcomes to prevail in the region Source: FEWSNET, 2013 Generally…
  • 15. Southern Africa • Malawi: Stressed food insecurity in localized areas • Zimbabwe: High food prices affect food insecurity • Maize grain and meal prices continued to increase atypically in parts of Zambia and Malawi • Madagascar: Prices will increase faster than usual during the lean season . • Burundi: Improved food access for poor households during the post- harvest period • Djibouti: Improvements in acute food security likely • Kenya: Food security deteriorating in the Southeast • Rwanda: Household food stocks rapidly deplete • South Sudan: Near-average national harvests remain likely • Sudan: Expectations for near- average harvest remain • Uganda: Green harvest to mitigate food insecurity East Africa Source: FEWSNET, 2013 Specific Country Outlook ….. as of July 2013
  • 16. Source: FEWS NET/NOAA, FEWS NET, Dartmouth Flood Observatory Most-likely food security outcomes, October to December, 2013 …………………..Pockets of acute food insecurity in areas that experienced reduced harvests
  • 17. Factors Likely to Impact on the Food Security Situation Policy factors – investment levels, – import and export bans, – market infrastructure level – production incentives; acce finance; Political and security factors – as evidenced in the case o eastern part of the DemocRepublic of Congo Agronomic factors – -rainfall levels (weather conditions), – crop varieties being adopte – post harvest management practices, – pests and disease outbreaks Market factors – input consumption (determ market prices and – Output market prices, – Market access, – Market information
  • 18. Cereals production in member states have increased over the past decade……with decreasing trends in some member states -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Percentchange Cereal production-% change 1990-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2005-2012 Actual yields for the main food crops (maize, rice, millet and sorghum) are well below what could be achieved in many regions…….. Source: Own Calculations from FAOSTAT 2013.
  • 19. -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Percentchange Cereal production-% change 1990-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2005-2012 Source: Own Calculations from FAOSTAT 2013. ….per capita production decreasing
  • 20. Rapid population growth in member states , may outstrip cereal production………….. y = 1E+07x + 2E+08 R² = 0.9628 y = 0.8486x + 140.4 R² = 0.7457 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Percapitaproduction PopulationinMillions Per capita cereal production-COMESA Total population COMESA per capita Cereal Production Linear (Total population COMESA) Linear (per capita Cereal Production) Source: Own Calculations from FAOSTAT 2013.
  • 21. Food prices continue to rise in the Southern, Eastern and West Africa Regions………. • International rice prices remained stable or decreased in July. • Maize prices decreased considerably with improved harvest prospects in the United States. • Wheat prices have continued to decrease due to improving growing conditions and harvest projections. Crude oil prices were stable. • Source: FEWSNET, 2013
  • 22. The food insecurity situation in the COMESA region is further demonstrated by the changes in the food prices in the member states……….. Southern Africa East Africa Source: FEWSNET, 2013
  • 23. Conclusions • Serious shortages in cereals (less than 70% shortfall) in 10 COMESA countries (Food Balance Sheets, 2013) • Around 20.9 million (see slide 7) people food insecure in the 11 countries (for which recent data is available) and 7.7M at risk of food insecurity (see slide 14) • Progress towards MDG1 insufficient in a significant number of countries (slide 6) • Drought and high inflation and localised conflict threaten food security in COMESA countries. • Cereal per capita production is decreasing while population is increasing and outstripping supply. This has a direct impact in availability of food at household level • High prevalence levels of malnourishment among children under-five years of age remain a public health problem in the COMESA region. – Childhood stunting is over 40% countries and more than 30% in 12 countries (slides 8 – 12). – Wasting places under-five children at substantial increased risk of severe acute malnutrition and death
  • 24. Food Security Challenges Food Security Solutions Inadequate food crisis management at all levels Reduced risk and improved resilience Inadequate food supply and marketing systems Increased supply of affordable food Lack of income opportunities Increased incomes for the poor Hunger, malnutrition and poor diet quality Improved nutrition Pillar 3: Food Security
  • 25. Recommendations • Agricultural growth is particularly effective in reducing hunger and malnutrition. • Comprehensive national food security strategies are urgently needed and need to include: – Programmes to increase food supply are urgently needed to provide for a growing population – Improving resilience of the food systems is essential – Programmes to improve children’s nutrition are urgently needed – Scaling Up Nutrition Programmes play an important role. • Promoting infrastructure development and harmonized policies – free flow of food staples from surplus to deficit areas driven primarily by price incentives and market forces. • Encourage and support women in agriculture (production inputs, access to markets, credit, extension services etc.)
  • 26. Thank You Christopher Manyamba Researcher: Institute for Food, Nutrition and Well-being, University of Pretoria, South Africa Prof Sheryl Hendriks Director: Institute for Food, Nutrition and Well-being, University of Pretoria, South Africa