When To Invite Oprah to Join Your Social Network: Driving Adoption in Social Applications

When to Invite Oprah to Join Your Social Network Driving Adop9on in Social Applica9ons Chris Boudreaux April 2009 © 2009 Chris Boudreaux Image Source: “Oprah...An angel on Earth” by Flickr member radiant guy.

Every successful social network originally gained tracAon by saAsfying an open need among the Early Adopters they originally aEracted. Original Sources of User TracAon for Selected Social Networks Purpose Social Network Original Source of User TracAon Discover and stay connected with Consumer independent bands Meet new people on your college campus -‐-‐ safely Find a job or a job candidate through your contacts’ contacts Benchmark your small business performance against millions of TurboTax users Easily share large data sets and leverage idle compu9ng power Business © 2009 Chris Boudreaux April 2009 2

But crossing the chasm from Early Market to Mass Market requires much more than saAsfying an open need. Early Market Mass Market 3.  But you are overly concerned about being here 2.  And you should be trying to go 1.  You here are here 4.  So, instead, you go nowhere Image source: Tara Hunt, hRp://www.horsepigcow.com/ © 2009 Chris Boudreaux April 2009 3

When trying to aEract our first users, we try to aEract Early Adopters who want to be the first to try something new – to start a new trend. Growth Stage Early Market Target Segment Early Adopters Dominant AdopAon “I am the first person I know who is doing this.” Psychology MoAvaAon to Join Desire to innovate, to pioneer, to create a trend Photo source: “Early adopter”, by Flickr member robynball. © 2009 Chris Boudreaux April 2009 4

Conversely to Early Adopters, the Mass Market joins only aRer enough of their friends have joined; to be a part of a trend that is already underway. Growth Stage Mass Market Target Segment Early Majority Dominant AdopAon “Everyone is doing this.” Psychology MoAvaAon to Join People do something if enough of their friends are doing it Photo source: “Crowd Spree” by Flickr member _rogers. © 2009 Chris Boudreaux April 2009 5

Three factors determine the extent to which members of the Mass Market adopt behaviors: known adopters, weights and thresholds. EXAMPLE: Crossing the AdopAon Threshold Each Mass Market par9cipant has some threshold which gates their adop9on of new behaviors within a social applica9on. 1. Adopters Sarah Diane Michael That threshold is deﬁned by the minimum weighted sum of: 2. Weights (weight = 1) (weight = 2) (weight = 1) joins Facebook joins Facebook joins Facebook, 1.  the por9on of people whom the member knows to have adopted the behavior, and Weighted Weighted Weighted 2.  the social weight the member assigns to Sum = 1 Sum = 3 Sum = 4 each of those known adopters. you ignore you ignore you join •  For example, my wife has more inﬂuence (weight) over my behavior than a co-‐worker. In order for a Mass Market par9cipant to adopt some behavior within a social applica9on, the 3. Threshold Your AdopAon Threshold = 4 weighted sum of the adopters known to the par9cipant must exceed that par9cipants adop%on threshold. © 2009 Chris Boudreaux April 2009 6

As relaAonship density1 increases around a member, so does the probability that any behavior displayed by their connecAons will exceed their adopAon threshold. Lowest Average Probability of Moderate Average Probability of Greatest Average Probability of AdopAon AdopAon AdopAon More Rela9onships  Greater Probability of Adop9on, due to: •  Greater probability of encountering people who have adopted the behavior, and •  Greater probability of surpassing the member’s adop9on threshold [1] Density is the propor9on of 9es in a network rela9ve to the total number possible. © 2009 Chris Boudreaux April 2009 7

To begin Mass Market tracAon, you must ﬁrst achieve a minimum relaAonship density that will cause Mass Market parAcipants to perceive the network as a trend. ILLUSTRATIVE Tipping Point Enabled by Market Minimum Rela9onship PenetraAon Density ~5% Time •  Because members of the Mass Market will join only when enough of their friends join, network density grows more important as you move closer to the chasm. •  Within the Mass Market, density drives adop9on, engagement and reten9on. •  It is helpful to add new users in clusters, where density already exists or will occur more naturally. •  The risk with being too aggressive with invites early on is that you never build up the density to become self-‐sustaining. By promo9ng early adopters and keeping them engaged, you can help foster the core density from which your social network can grow organically. © 2009 Chris Boudreaux April 2009 8

You should also control growth unAl you determine a model with a retenAon rate that is high enough to achieve signiﬁcant audience reach in the long run. •  “A high reten9on rate doesn’t guarantee a massive audience, but it is a prerequisite. •  There simply aren’t enough new users to make up for defec9ng ones aoer a certain point.”1 [1] Chart source: Nielsen Wire, April 28, 2009 (hRp://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/twiRer-‐quiRers-‐post-‐roadblock-‐to-‐long-‐term-‐growth). © 2009 Chris Boudreaux April 2009 9

Facebook focused iniAal acquisiAon markeAng on small schools where density was highest, to establish their eventual self-‐sustaining growth beyond college students. Examples of Social Network Growth Principles Applied by Facebook Social Bootstrap ini9al Nurture minimum rela%onship Aoer achieving minimum Network consump9on by Early density, as follows: rela%onship density Growth Adopters •  ThroRle network growth among Early Adopters, Principles cross the chasm into the •  Add new users in clusters Mass Market •  Add more dense clusters ﬁrst Facebook Conduct direct email •  Require a .edu email address Aoer achieving suﬃcient Examples campaigns to establish to join density among college foothold among Early •  Open the site to new students, remove the Adopters at Harvard campuses only aoer a requirement for a “.edu” minimum number of people email address and from that campus request remove school-‐based accounts network par99ons •  Start with smaller campuses where rela9onship density is easier to create and sustain © 2009 Chris Boudreaux April 2009 10

Facebook and MySpace achieved 30% and 60% retenAon before they scaled their networks, and they both increased retenAon as they scaled. •  When Facebook and MySpace went through their explosive growth phases, their reten9on only increased, and both sit at nearly 70 percent reten9on today. •  When Facebook and MySpace were emerging networks like TwiRer is now, their reten9on rates were twice as high. Source: Nielsen Wire, April 28, 2009 (hRp://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/twiRer-‐quiRers-‐post-‐roadblock-‐to-‐long-‐term-‐growth). © 2009 Chris Boudreaux April 2009 11

Achieving exponenAal growth of a social network requires adding members who exhibit preferenAal aEachment, in addiAon to simply adding new members. Examples of Changing Targets Possessing •  Preferen%al a;achment means that the more PreferenAal AEachment, by Growth Stage connected a member is, the more likely they are to receive new links.1 •  New members have a "preference" to aRach themselves to the already heavily linked members. •  Heavily linked members represent well-‐known Early Market Mass Market people with lots of rela9ons. AEributes Densely connected Densely connected •  Members with greater links have stronger of Targets among Early among the Mass ability to grab new links added to the network, Adopters Market and tend to quickly accumulate even more links (the rich get richer2). Example •  Independent •  Oprah •  Preferen9al aRachment increases the average Targets Bands (MySpace) •  Ashton Kutcher rela9onship density of the network overall. •  Guy Kawasaki (TwiRer) [1] Source: “Sta9s9cal Mechanics of Complex Networks”, R. Albert and A.-‐L. Barabasi,, Rev. Mod. Phys., Vol. 74, No. 1, January 2002. [2] Commonly known as The MaRhew Eﬀect. Similarly, on the web new pages link preferen9ally to hubs, i.e. very well-‐known sites such as Google or Wikipedia, rather than to pages that hardly anyone knows. If someone selects a new page to link to by randomly choosing an exis9ng link, the probability of selec9ng a par9cular page would be propor9onal to its degree. © 2009 Chris Boudreaux April 2009 12

Celebrity relaAonships are more oRen directed than reciprocal, so reciprocal networks must add a directed component to leverage their preferenAal aEachment. Nature of Network Examples •  Celebri9es tend to aRract more connec9ons on RelaAonships directed networks, such as TwiRer, rather than Reciprocal •  Facebook reciprocal networks, such as Facebook. –  Directed networks occur when •  MySpace communica9ons between members ﬂow in Directed •  TwiRer one direc9on. •  Facebook Fan Pages –  Reciprocal networks occur when communica9ons between members ﬂow in both direc9ons. •  Fan Pages enable Facebook to provide direc9onal rela9onships to celebri9es and, thereby, u9lize their preferen%al a;achment to grow the Facebook network. •  In directed networks, not all nodes can be reached from a given node. This leads to a fragmented cluster structure in which the clusters are not unique, but depend on the star9ng point of the inquiry.1 © 2009 Chris Boudreaux April 2009 13

Growing a social network requires rela&onship density, preferen&al a1achment and an open need. Summary 1.  Open Need •  Social features alone are not enough to gain trac9on. To gain trac9on, a social applica9on must solve a problem or fill a need beyond social connec9on. 2.  RelaAonship Density •  Early Adopters want to be the first to try something new – to start a new trend. •  The Mass Market joins new ac9vi9es to be a part of a trend, rather than to start a trend. •  Rela%onship density makes a social applica9on a trend. •  Before you can achieve trac9on in the Mass Market, you must first achieve the minimum rela%onship density that will cause Mass Market par9cipants to perceive the social applica9on as a trend. •  You can increase rela9onship density by limi9ng new membership (e.g., by limi9ng invita9ons). •  Also, try to add new users in clusters where rela9onship density is already high (e.g., college campuses). 3.  PreferenAal AEachment •  Preferen9al aRachment occurs when highly connected members receive a dispropor9onate share of new connec9ons (the rich get richer). •  Achieving exponen9al growth of a social network requires adding highly connected members who exhibit preferen9al aRachment (e.g., independent bands who aRracted Early Adopters into MySpace, and Oprah who aRracted Mass Market par9cipants into TwiRer). © 2009 Chris Boudreaux April 2009 14

About Me My name is Chris Boudreaux, and I lead cross-functional teams of business and technology professionals to create new capabilities and services, from strategy through implementation and operations. I am a former Naval Officer, and I led product development and business transformation initiatives at companies including Bank of America, Boeing, eBay and Microsoft. I have lived and worked in Charlotte, Chicago, Germany, London, San Francisco and Seattle, and I have served clients in locations around the world. •  Visit my blog at http://socialmediagovernance.com/blog •  Find me on LinkedIn: http://linkedin.com/chrisboudreaux •  Follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/cboudreaux 15

When To Invite Oprah to Join Your Social Network: Driving Adoption in Social Applications

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