Stormwater and Climate: Sink orSwim?Marcus Griswold, Ph.D.
Why consider climate change?Healthy WaterHealthy CommunitiesHealthy EcosystemsHealthy EconomiesSafe Travels
Hurricane Sandy – Sewage Overflows
ConventionalSWMESDOpen SpaceESD: A InfrastructureChangeinRunoffVolumeGreen Infrastructure: A good start
High Value Strategies• Connectivity is key!• Protect and restore headwater streams andwetlands• Protect wide floodplains• ...
Moving Wetlands InlandColton’s Point: St Mary’s Laurel: Prince George’s
Wetland Buffers
Stormwater and Wetland Parks
Baltimore: Disaster Preparedness andPlanning Project• Reduce climateimpacts acrossdepartments• Focused on climateimpacts f...
Vacant Lots – An opportunity
Adapting - Maryland State HighwayAdministration• Identify climatethresholds• Determine climaterisks to roads andbuildings•...
Climate Communications Consortiumof Maryland27 Developing simple, clear messages toprepare and mitigate climate change M...
Marcus Griswoldgriswold@umces.edu(410) 330-6987www.madeclear.org
CCW conference: Stormwater and Climate
CCW conference: Stormwater and Climate
CCW conference: Stormwater and Climate
CCW conference: Stormwater and Climate
CCW conference: Stormwater and Climate
CCW conference: Stormwater and Climate
CCW conference: Stormwater and Climate
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CCW conference: Stormwater and Climate

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Marcus Griswold, Ph.D., Chesapeake Research Consortium
Increasingly, climate change is influencing the health of our waterways. In the years and decades to come climate change will be a growing focus of the work of policy-makers, planners, and advocates dedicated to protecting and restoring our watersheds. This panel examines policy approaches, adaptive strategies, and community involvement to ensuring clean water while protecting our communities from the impacts of climate change.

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  • Healthy Water (wide buffers, green infrastructure, land protection, great tasting drinking water, nutrient processing and sediment)Healthy Communities (urban tree canopy, protection from overflows, protection ozone and bad air days)Healthy Ecosystems (Healthy EconomiesSafe Travels
  • Based on this Maryland is getting warmer particularly in the winter (Nov,Dec,Feb), wetter in March, Sep-Nov and drier in July and August. Insert current changes – wetter sept and jan…etcOver the past 100 years, overall average temperatures have increased by 1.8˚F, while winter average temperatures have risen by 3.6˚FAugust and September of 2011 were the wettest the state has seen in 117 yearsJuly of 2010 and 2011 were the hottest on record across much of the state and 2010 had the highest number of days over 90 degreesHurricane Irene set new records for stream gages in some parts of Maryland and below a major dam (Conowingo)Now the folks at NWS/Sterling have run more numbers. Science Officer Steve Zubrick discovered that the 30-day period from Aug. 13 through Sept. 11 was the wettest 30 days on record for Baltimore, with 18.90 inches at BWI. August through September was also the wettest such period on record here, with 23.16 inches at BWI.It won't be official until all of today's numbers are in. But it looks from here like July 2011 will finish tonight as the hottest July on record for Baltimore.Through Saturday, the average temperature for the month at BWI-Marshall Airport in July was 81.6 degrees. If that holds, it will place this month ahead of the current three-way tie for the hottest July - 81.5 degrees - set in 1872 and matched in 1995 and 2010. Third place would go to 1934 and 1949, at 81.4 degrees.UPDATE 12 noon: The NWS says the average temperature for July was 81.7 degrees at BWI-Marshall Airport. That makes it the hottest July on record for Baltimore. The long-term average for July is 76.5 degrees. Earlier post resumes below. July 2011 is ending with a streak of 90-plus weather that has lasted 15 days, the third-longest such streak on record for Baltimore. The long-range forecast calls for a high of 89 next Saturday. If it proves accurate, that would end the streek at 20 consecutive days in the 90s, just short of the second-longest on record - 21 days.  July 2011 also included four days of 100-plus weather at BWI, peaking at 106 degree on July 22. The 106-degree high was a record for BWI, but not for the city. A 107-degree reading downtown on July 10, 1936 remains the official record high for Baltimore. A 108-degree high at the Maryland Science Center on the 22nd, while unofficial because the NWS station-of-record moved to the airport in 1950, is the highest temperature ever recorded downtown.Winters (dec,jan,feb really periods getting warmer)
  • Insert current changes – wetter sept and jan…etcNow the folks at NWS/Sterling have run more numbers. Science Officer Steve Zubrick discovered that the 30-day period from Aug. 13 through Sept. 11 was the wettest 30 days on record for Baltimore, with 18.90 inches at BWI. August through September was also the wettest such period on record here, with 23.16 inches at BWI.It won't be official until all of today's numbers are in. But it looks from here like July 2011 will finish tonight as the hottest July on record for Baltimore.Through Saturday, the average temperature for the month at BWI-Marshall Airport in July was 81.6 degrees. If that holds, it will place this month ahead of the current three-way tie for the hottest July - 81.5 degrees - set in 1872 and matched in 1995 and 2010. Third place would go to 1934 and 1949, at 81.4 degrees.UPDATE 12 noon: The NWS says the average temperature for July was 81.7 degrees at BWI-Marshall Airport. That makes it the hottest July on record for Baltimore. The long-term average for July is 76.5 degrees. Earlier post resumes below. July 2011 is ending with a streak of 90-plus weather that has lasted 15 days, the third-longest such streak on record for Baltimore. The long-range forecast calls for a high of 89 next Saturday. If it proves accurate, that would end the streek at 20 consecutive days in the 90s, just short of the second-longest on record - 21 days.  July 2011 also included four days of 100-plus weather at BWI, peaking at 106 degree on July 22. The 106-degree high was a record for BWI, but not for the city. A 107-degree reading downtown on July 10, 1936 remains the official record high for Baltimore. A 108-degree high at the Maryland Science Center on the 22nd, while unofficial because the NWS station-of-record moved to the airport in 1950, is the highest temperature ever recorded downtown.Winters (dec,jan,feb really periods getting warmer)
  • 1910-2011 NE
  • Hurricane Irene set new records for stream gages in some parts of Maryland and below Conowingo dam
  • Caroline countyBackflow99% overflows from rain events
  • Conveyence Southbound traffic on the Jones Falls Expressway was reduced to the far left lane near Cold Spring Lane when heavy overnight rains combined with a lack of proper drainage to flood the roadway. (Jed Kirschbaum, Baltimore Sun)April 26, 2010|
  • Upper Marlboro parking garage, looking at Governor Oden Bowie Drive towards Schoolhouse Pond by the County Administration Building (CAB).  The County Administration Building's lower level had two foot of flood water (flooding land records, etc), and was closed for renovation from September 2011 until March 2012, to the tune of approximately $15M.
  • InfiltrationUpper marlboro September 8, 2011.  The second picture is a photo of the Planning Department's raingarden covered with 1.5 feet from Schoolhouse Pond
  • Simulations conducted inthis study suggest that, when expressed on a constant percentchange basis, stormwater runoff is most sensitive to changes inimpervious cover, followed by changes in precipitation volume andevent intensityFor example, using the data inFig. 5, a 45% increase in stormwater runoff would result from a 10%increase in precipitation volume and 5% increase in event intensity(10%°ø3.6 + 5%°ø1.8 = 45%). This could be offset by a decreasein impervious cover of 4% (45%/11.3 = 4%).Christopher Pykea,1, Meredith P. Warrena, Thomas Johnsona,∗, James LaGro Jr. b, Jeremy Scharfenbergc,Philip Grothd, Randall Freede, William Schroeere,2, Eric Main 2011The low impact site was uniformly superior to the conventionalsite for managing stormwater runoff and pollutant loads from allprecipitation scenarios. Under the historical scenario, simulatedrunoff from the low impact site was 29% less than the conventionalsite (Table 4). Annual pollutant loads were 24, 33, and 26% less forthe low impact versus conventional site for TN, TP, and TSS, respectivelyThe I(10) and I(45) scenarios assume increases of 10 and 45% inthe proportion of annual precipitation occurring in large magnitudeevents. For the I(10) and I(45) scenarios, the low impact site produced27 and 15% less runoff, respectively, while the conventionalsite produced two and 15% more runoff, respectively, than the conventionalsite under the historical scenario (Fig. 3). Annual TN, TP,and TSS loads from the low impact site under the I(10) scenariowere 22, 33, and 23% less, respectively, than the conventional siteunder the historical scenario, while the conventional site under theI(10) scenario generated 2, 1, and 3% more, respectively.
  • Options for farmers? Mitigation banks? USDA – NRCS funds for wetland creation?
  • http://www.silive.com/westshore/index.ssf/2012/12/a_buffer_instead_of_a_blight_f.htmlStaten Island
  • http://www.ch2mhillblogs.com/water/2012/10/02/freedom-park-treatment-wetland/http://sustainablecitiescollective.com/kaidbenfield/36432/new-wetlands-park-made-possible-environmental-justice-lawsuit
  • Filled after 100 year storm
  • Alexandria,VA SimClim and XP-SWMM models to generate IDF curves. The project team reviewed Alexandria’s stormwater design criteria and updated the City’s IDF curves using longer historical climate data, comparing it to those derived from climate change scenarios. To evaluate climate change adaptation options, the IDF curves became input for new City hydrologic and hydraulic models of the storm sewer infrastructure. These models will be used to determine cost and risk for different mitigation scenarios and assumptions for rain design storms and sea level rise in 2050 and 2100. reates one kilometer monthly projected “climate surfaces” using historical monthly average climate elements. In this case, projections were aggregated to annual totals. In the 1990s, annual precipitation was just below 42 inches per year. With a low GHG emissions scenario, rainfall increases by 2050 to slightly more than 42 inches per year. However, under a high GHG emissions scenario, the 2050 projection is 45 inches per year and the 2100 projection is nearly 50 inches per year. In terms of infrastructure needs, this is comparable to moving the City of San Diego, in dry, southern California, north to Sacramento, which gets 8 inches more rain per year.
  • The project team found that a relationship exists between annual precipitation and intensity – a conclusion supported by other research. Historically, a storm that would produce 8 inches of rain in a 24-hour period would be expected to occur every 100 years. Under a low emissions scenario, the recurrence interval for that type storm is projected to increase to every 50 years. Assuming high GHG emissions into the future, the recurrence interval is projected at every 20 years. To achieve effective storm sewer planning and design, the City of Alexandria’s approach integrates historical precipitation IDF analysis with GCM projections and projected sea level rise. Because of potential infrastructure cost implications of changing drainage design criteria, it was recommended the City initially adopt the NOAA Atlas 14 or L-Moment results, which are generally lower than the City’s current IDF curves, but based on a much more complete historical data set and statistical analysisIn NJ - .100 year flood every 2 years Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishesFEMA FP - 44 CFR 64.3 (a)(1)• Future conditions can beadded to the floodplain mapat the request of theCommunityFuture Conditions MappingThe local community will determine the futureconditionsland-use and hydrology.• If the community requests that FEMA do so, FEMAwill show the future-conditions 1-percent-annualchance(100-year) floodplain on the Flood InsuranceRate Map (FIRM) and designate it as "Zone X (FutureBase Flood)."
  • CCW conference: Stormwater and Climate

    1. 1. Stormwater and Climate: Sink orSwim?Marcus Griswold, Ph.D.
    2. 2. Why consider climate change?Healthy WaterHealthy CommunitiesHealthy EcosystemsHealthy EconomiesSafe Travels
    3. 3. Hurricane Sandy – Sewage Overflows
    4. 4. ConventionalSWMESDOpen SpaceESD: A InfrastructureChangeinRunoffVolumeGreen Infrastructure: A good start
    5. 5. High Value Strategies• Connectivity is key!• Protect and restore headwater streams andwetlands• Protect wide floodplains• Vacant land conversion to open space• Stormwater and wetland parks• Move wetlands inland and limit stormwaterpractices in future flood zones
    6. 6. Moving Wetlands InlandColton’s Point: St Mary’s Laurel: Prince George’s
    7. 7. Wetland Buffers
    8. 8. Stormwater and Wetland Parks
    9. 9. Baltimore: Disaster Preparedness andPlanning Project• Reduce climateimpacts acrossdepartments• Focused on climateimpacts fromflooding, extremeheats, storms• Embed climatechange into capitolimprovement plans
    10. 10. Vacant Lots – An opportunity
    11. 11. Adapting - Maryland State HighwayAdministration• Identify climatethresholds• Determine climaterisks to roads andbuildings• Embed risks intoasset managementtool
    12. 12. Climate Communications Consortiumof Maryland27 Developing simple, clear messages toprepare and mitigate climate change Maryland specific data on publicunderstanding of climate change Includes NGOs, Universities, Local and stategovernment
    13. 13. Marcus Griswoldgriswold@umces.edu(410) 330-6987www.madeclear.org

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