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Biofuels in Asia Key Trends and Implications   ECO-Asia Clean Development and  Climate Program  Pradeep Tharakan Asia’s Fu...
Growth in Transport Fuel Demand and Implications <ul><li>Transport demand to increase 15 – 350% by 2030. </li></ul><ul><li...
Boom (2004-2005) and Slump (2007-2008) <ul><li>Introduction of targets and incentives in the US and EU </li></ul><ul><li>A...
Ambitious Targets and Mandates Set Report Findings Country Ethanol Target Biodiesel Target China 10 MMT by 2020 2 MMT by 2...
In other words… <ul><li>INDONESIA (Ethanol) </li></ul><ul><li>CURRENT: 215 Thousand kL/year; </li></ul><ul><li>2010: 4 mil...
Life cycle assessment of biofuels *  By way of comparison, the energy balance of fossil fuels is 1.2 MJ of fossil fuel inp...
Carbon payback analysis Report Findings <ul><li>Carbon Debt </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon Payback Time  </li></ul>Years
Impacts on air, soil, and water quality and quantity <ul><li>Severe water shortages projected for India and China – may no...
Biodiversity impacts Sugarcane  (0.5 Mil ha) Oil  Palm   (3 Mil ha) HCV Land in Borneo <ul><li>High density of species in ...
Oil Palm Expansion – An almost certain outcome Source : Oil World 2007 a   b  Only for the 7 major oils Demand for Edible ...
Social Impacts <ul><li>Smallholder schemes have shown mixed results </li></ul><ul><ul><li>   small-scale systems preferab...
From global transport fuels to decentralized energy – from Cars to People  <ul><li>More than half a billion people in Asia...
Future Priority Areas  <ul><li>Policy Development Needs </li></ul><ul><li>Support for Sustainability Standards and Certifi...
<ul><li>Thank You </li></ul><ul><li>Pradeep Tharakan </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>www.cleanenergyas...
Background <ul><li>3-year program, launched Oct 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>Active in 6 largest developing Asian economies:  Ch...
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Tharakan's April 30 Presentation

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  • My name is Pradeep Tharakan. I am a consultant to the USG and the deputy team leader with the ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program. This program is funded by the US Agency for International Development. We are just putting finishing touches to a regional assessment of the status of biofuels development in Asia. I’d like to take this opportunity to present some of the key findings from this report.
  • Transcript of "Tharakan's April 30 Presentation"

    1. 1. Biofuels in Asia Key Trends and Implications ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program Pradeep Tharakan Asia’s Future Round Table Bangkok, 30-31 March, 2009
    2. 2. Growth in Transport Fuel Demand and Implications <ul><li>Transport demand to increase 15 – 350% by 2030. </li></ul><ul><li>Fossil fuels currently contribute 5 – 48% of total particulate matter in Asian cities. </li></ul><ul><li>Biofuels are roughly 3% of current transport demand in developing Asia (1% globally). </li></ul>Report Findings
    3. 3. Boom (2004-2005) and Slump (2007-2008) <ul><li>Introduction of targets and incentives in the US and EU </li></ul><ul><li>Asia starts to produce biofuels for export and countries create targets/mandates of their own </li></ul><ul><li>Current feedstock and oil prices erode producer profitability – a current slump </li></ul>Study Context Million Liters
    4. 4. Ambitious Targets and Mandates Set Report Findings Country Ethanol Target Biodiesel Target China 10 MMT by 2020 2 MMT by 2020 India 20% by 2017 20% by 2017 Indonesia 20% by 2015 10% by 2010 Malaysia na 5% by 2009 Philippines 10% by 2011 2% by 2009 Thailand 10% by 2011 10% by 2012 Vietnam 500 ML by 2020 50 ML by 2020
    5. 5. In other words… <ul><li>INDONESIA (Ethanol) </li></ul><ul><li>CURRENT: 215 Thousand kL/year; </li></ul><ul><li>2010: 4 million kL/yr </li></ul><ul><li>2025: 17.3 million kL/yr </li></ul><ul><li>INDONESIA (Biodiesel) </li></ul><ul><li>CURRENT: 2.9 Million kL/year; </li></ul><ul><li>2010: 5 million kL/yr </li></ul><ul><li>2025: 25 million kL/yr </li></ul><ul><li>INDIA – TO MEET 20% NEED FOR FUEL BY 2017 </li></ul>Scope and Objectives
    6. 6. Life cycle assessment of biofuels * By way of comparison, the energy balance of fossil fuels is 1.2 MJ of fossil fuel inputs to produce 1 MJ of energy output. Therefore, biofuels with net energy balances of <1.2 MJ produce net energy savings compared to fossil fuels. ** GHG savings are relative to fossil fuels Report Findings Indicative Ranges of Net Energy and GHG Balances of Biofuels from Selected Biofuels Feedstocks without Land Use Change Crop Energy Balance * GHG Savings** Sugarcane -0.6 to 0.8 MJ 78–133 % Sweet Sorghum -0.6 to -0.3 MJ 67–133 % Cellulosic Ethanol -0.2 to 0.4 MJ 67–111 % Corn 0.4 to 1.2 MJ 11–56 % Oil Palm -0.3 to 0 MJ 122–156 % Jatropha -0.5 to 0.4 MJ 100 –144 % Coconut -0.1 to 0.4 MJ 56–86 %
    7. 7. Carbon payback analysis Report Findings <ul><li>Carbon Debt </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon Payback Time </li></ul>Years
    8. 8. Impacts on air, soil, and water quality and quantity <ul><li>Severe water shortages projected for India and China – may not support biofuels production. </li></ul><ul><li>Reduction in CO, particulates and volatile organics but ozone and NOx are increased </li></ul><ul><li>Water quality impacted by synthetic fertilizer run-off and waste water from processing </li></ul>Report Findings
    9. 9. Biodiversity impacts Sugarcane (0.5 Mil ha) Oil Palm (3 Mil ha) HCV Land in Borneo <ul><li>High density of species in rainforests of Malaysia and Indonesia </li></ul><ul><li>Peatlands </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Indonesia has recently lifted ban on peatlands </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Poor governance </li></ul><ul><li>Indirect loss of forest (e.g. timber extraction, forest fires) </li></ul>Sources: WWF and government of Indonesia Report Findings
    10. 10. Oil Palm Expansion – An almost certain outcome Source : Oil World 2007 a b Only for the 7 major oils Demand for Edible Oil Source : Crowley (2009) Demand 2007 Demand 2050 Plantation 2007 Plantation 2050 121 Mt (37 Mt) 240 (120 Mt) 11 Mha +12 Mha
    11. 11. Social Impacts <ul><li>Smallholder schemes have shown mixed results </li></ul><ul><ul><li> small-scale systems preferable </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Employment potential needs to balanced with efficiency and mechanization </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Potential problems supplying the infrastructure for plantation expansion (e.g. jatropha and oil palm expansion in Indonesia) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Large-scale biofuels can result in infringements on indigenous peoples and labor rights </li></ul><ul><ul><li>need enforcement of rights, avenues for conflict resolution and participation mechanisms </li></ul></ul>
    12. 12. From global transport fuels to decentralized energy – from Cars to People <ul><li>More than half a billion people in Asia lack access to modern electricity </li></ul><ul><li>Negative environmental, economic, and social impacts from large-scale biofuels </li></ul><ul><ul><li> decentralized energy using non-food crops can reduce soil erosion, improve soil fertility and improve water quality and reduce deforestation with careful planning and management </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Biofuels on a smaller, decentralized scale can provide energy for cooking and transport, and electricity </li></ul><ul><li>Biofuels for decentralized energy can provide greater social benefits than biofuels for transport. </li></ul>Report Findings
    13. 13. Future Priority Areas <ul><li>Policy Development Needs </li></ul><ul><li>Support for Sustainability Standards and Certification </li></ul><ul><li>Support scale-up of decentralized biofuels </li></ul><ul><li>Assess and map land resources </li></ul><ul><li>Support agronomy research and crop improvement </li></ul><ul><li>Tech Transfer on cellulosic ethanol </li></ul><ul><li>Technical Assistance on life cycle analysis </li></ul>
    14. 14. <ul><li>Thank You </li></ul><ul><li>Pradeep Tharakan </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>www.cleanenergyasia.net </li></ul>
    15. 15. Background <ul><li>3-year program, launched Oct 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>Active in 6 largest developing Asian economies: China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam </li></ul><ul><li>USAID-led program with additional funding from Dept. of State (APP) </li></ul><ul><li>Areas of focus: Cleaner Coal, CFLs, Clean Energy Finance, and now biofuels. </li></ul>
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