Technical Analysis:
Costain WA Plc.
U n i C a p i t a l P l c .
6 , M e d i t e r r a n e a n S t r e e t ,
I m a n i E s ...
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The reports and recommendations contained herein were prepared by Chijioke solely for the UniCapital Investment team. Th...
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The reports and recommendations contained herein were prepared by Chijioke solely for the UniCapital Investment team. Th...
3
The reports and recommendations contained herein were prepared by Chijioke solely for the UniCapital Investment team. Th...
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The reports and recommendations contained herein were prepared by Chijioke solely for the UniCapital Investment team. Th...
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The reports and recommendations contained herein were prepared by Chijioke solely for the UniCapital Investment team. Th...
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Stock recommendation and Technical Analysis of Costain WA

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A five (5) month [March 28 - July 30, 2014] analysis of Costain WA stock showed that
Costain share price hovers between the N1.12 and N1.52
band over a 6-week period. Discerning investors are
recommended to buy the stock at N1.16 and sell at N1.35
for a 16.4% Return-On-Investment over 8-week. Read on…

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Stock recommendation and Technical Analysis of Costain WA

  1. 1. Technical Analysis: Costain WA Plc. U n i C a p i t a l P l c . 6 , M e d i t e r r a n e a n S t r e e t , I m a n i E s t a t e , M a i t a m a , A b u j a . + 2 3 4 8 1 7 2 0 3 0 0 3 7 [ T y p e t h e f a x n u m b e r ] 7 / 3 1 / 2 0 1 4 Ukwuegbu, Chijioke Anthony A five (5) month analysis of Costain WA stock showed that Costain share price hovers between the N1.12 and N1.52 band over a 6-week period. Discerning investors are recommended to buy the stock at N1.16 and sell at N1.35 for a 16.4% Return-On-Investment over 8-week. Read on…
  2. 2. 1 The reports and recommendations contained herein were prepared by Chijioke solely for the UniCapital Investment team. The reports and ratings are based on publicly available information believed to be reliable. The research process used is derived solely from a quantitative approach that uses historical data to produce a buy-sell recommendation. Past results are no guarantee of future results. Additional information, such as corporate actions, industry and economic factors, and other events and circumstances that may affect a stock’s price may not be reflected in the Research recommendation or in the data presented. Recommendations made in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Recommendations do not take into account the individual user’s investment risk or return objectives or constraints. S/N Title Page No. 1 Appendix 1 2 Company Background 2 3 Stock Performance 3 4 Recommendation 5
  3. 3. 2 The reports and recommendations contained herein were prepared by Chijioke solely for the UniCapital Investment team. The reports and ratings are based on publicly available information believed to be reliable. The research process used is derived solely from a quantitative approach that uses historical data to produce a buy-sell recommendation. Past results are no guarantee of future results. Additional information, such as corporate actions, industry and economic factors, and other events and circumstances that may affect a stock’s price may not be reflected in the Research recommendation or in the data presented. Recommendations made in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Recommendations do not take into account the individual user’s investment risk or return objectives or constraints. 1. COMPANY BACKGROUND Costain West Africa is Nigeria’s oldest building and civil engineering company incorporated in 1948 and listed on the NSE on March 13, 1974 with March 31st as its year end. Costain WA is independent of Costain UK Group. Ayodeji Karim is the current MD/CEO. While the FY2013 Report is yet to be released, FY 2012 Report shows revenue of N7.392bn, loss after tax of N1.928bn and 1,942 employees. Industry competitors can be classified into top tier, which includes Julius Berger, CCECC, and Dantata & Sawoe; and mid-tier, which includes Costain WA, G.Cappa, Cappa D’Alberto, Interlinked Technologies, HiTech, UPDC,etc. Business Operations: Costain is divided into five business units which are: Infrastructure & Civil engineering, Residential & housing, Roads, Furniture & Joinery, and Oil & Gas. Despite being plaqued by poor management, the bright spots for Costain within the past 3 years include securing the $300m rehabilitation of the Jebba-Kano section of the Lagos-Kano railway track, 2 high rise projects in Asokoro of Abuja, redevelopment of the Old China Town in Ikoyi (in partnership with Niger Insurance Plc.), One (1) 48unit luxury apartment block. In 2010, Costain WA opened its first West African office in Ghana. Shareholding: Costain WA has issued shares of 1,084,382,980units and 1,048,382,980units outstanding. Of these, 514,298,346units of shares (47.43%) are being held by Shoreline Energy International Limited (www.shoreline-group.com) with the balance of 570,084,6345units diversely held. Debt: On January 13, Costain made the final installment of the First Bank debt which had kept it under receivership for 3 months. Costain has losses of N1.9bn in 2012, zero dividend for over 5-years, and its operation is being squeezed by the top-tier players.
  4. 4. 3 The reports and recommendations contained herein were prepared by Chijioke solely for the UniCapital Investment team. The reports and ratings are based on publicly available information believed to be reliable. The research process used is derived solely from a quantitative approach that uses historical data to produce a buy-sell recommendation. Past results are no guarantee of future results. Additional information, such as corporate actions, industry and economic factors, and other events and circumstances that may affect a stock’s price may not be reflected in the Research recommendation or in the data presented. Recommendations made in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Recommendations do not take into account the individual user’s investment risk or return objectives or constraints. 2. STOCK PERFORMANCE 5 month candle stick technical/chart analysis March 28, 2014 – July 30, 2014 1st Bull Run: The first Bull Run started on April 17 at N1.15 and ended on May 02 at N1.50, producing a 30.4% return. The April 17 doji indicated that the bears were beginning to lose their grip on the market, which was more evident by April 23 when the white marubozu rested on the lower Price line. Three consecutive white dojis (April 23, Apr 24 and Apr 25) confirmed the bullish trend. The Bull Run was “double confirmed” with the third marubozu (April 25) rising above the upper price line. Subsequent Bear Run: Weakening of the bull market began from April 29. The stock opened at N1.38, the bears took the price down to N1.34 but couldn’t hold the stock down for too long before the bulls came back and pushed the stock up to close at N1.41. This bear-bull trading
  5. 5. 4 The reports and recommendations contained herein were prepared by Chijioke solely for the UniCapital Investment team. The reports and ratings are based on publicly available information believed to be reliable. The research process used is derived solely from a quantitative approach that uses historical data to produce a buy-sell recommendation. Past results are no guarantee of future results. Additional information, such as corporate actions, industry and economic factors, and other events and circumstances that may affect a stock’s price may not be reflected in the Research recommendation or in the data presented. Recommendations made in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Recommendations do not take into account the individual user’s investment risk or return objectives or constraints. tussle repeated itself on Apr 30 (candlestick with long shadow indicate a tussle between the bears and bulls). On May 2, the stock tested its support level of N1.48, closing trading at N1.54 and then retracted downwards signifying the beginning of the bear market which lasted to June 10 when the stock closed at N1.12. False breakout: It should be noted that between May 16 and June 09, the bulls were battling it out with the bears for control of the market but never won. A false breakout happened on May 16, but next day trading indicated it was just a ruse. May 30 and June 02 rally had the ingredients of the bull taking over; as the May 30 white marubozu opened below the lower price line, and the existence of a consecutive white marubozu. But the second consecutive white marubozu never happened to confirm the trend. This showed that the bulls were in sight. 2nd Bull Run: The 2nd Bull Run started on June 10 (N1.12) and lasted till June 18 (N1.54), producing a 37.5% return. The long upper shadow of June 10, showed that the bulls controlled a large part of the market but lost eventually to the bears, indicating that a reversal was
  6. 6. 5 The reports and recommendations contained herein were prepared by Chijioke solely for the UniCapital Investment team. The reports and ratings are based on publicly available information believed to be reliable. The research process used is derived solely from a quantitative approach that uses historical data to produce a buy-sell recommendation. Past results are no guarantee of future results. Additional information, such as corporate actions, industry and economic factors, and other events and circumstances that may affect a stock’s price may not be reflected in the Research recommendation or in the data presented. Recommendations made in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Recommendations do not take into account the individual user’s investment risk or return objectives or constraints. imminent. The three consecutive white shadows of June 11, June 12 and June 13 confirmed the Bull Run. Let’s not forget that the white shadow of June 11 touched the lower price line. Subsequent Bear Run: Doji of June 17 and June 18 indicated that a reversal was imminent. Even though the bulls won the day on both occasions, short positions were on the increase. The stock began a downward trend from a high of N1.54 on June 19 and closed at N1.18 on July 30, 2014. 3. RECOMMENDATION The chart and analysis above gives a buy recommendation for Costain at N1.16. with a N1.10 (5.00%) stop loss. Conservative investors might want to look out for a white marubozu sitting on top the lower price line with two consecutive white marubozu, and the third white marubozu sitting above the upper price line. The potential upside of Costain WA is up to N1.42. But investors are advised to short their position when the stock reaches N1.35 and walk away with a 16.4% ROI/profit for just 6 weeks work.

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