Outliers
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Outliers

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Outliers Outliers Presentation Transcript

  • Outliers
    About men and women who do things that are out of the ordinary
  • The 10,000 hour rule- magic number of greatness
    University of Michigan had one of the most advanced computer programs in the world
    The most famous student was Bill Joy
    Voted most studious student in his school
    It meant according to him ‘ no date nerd’
    Much of the software that allows us to access the internet was written by Joy
    He rewrote UNIX and wrote java
  • Question?
    Was it pure meritocracy .
    He says it is a combination of ability, opportunity and some arbitrary advantage
  • The closer Psychologists look at the careers of gifted, the smaller the role innate talent plays and the bigger the role preparation seems to play
    Mozart , didn’t produce his greatest work until he had been composing for more than 20 years
    To become a Chess grandmaster, takes about 10 years
    To put in 10,000 hours on anything takes about 10 years
  • Back to bill joy
    • Michigan – programming 8 to 10 hours a day
    • Berkley – day and night
    • Add up all – 10,000 hours
    • Learning: practice makes you perfect
    Opportunities
    He happened to go to the best school
    This was the era when computer programs were created using card board punch cards
    He had the opportunity to practice on a time sharing system instead of punching cards
    Because the Michigan system happened to have a bug in it , he could program all, he wanted
    Because the university was willing to spend money to keep it open 24 hours , he could stay up all night
    Because he put in so much effort, when he got the opportunity to rewrite UNIX he was ready
  • Bill gates
    Bill gates
    At the beginning of the seventh grade was sent to lakeside ( school for kids of elite)
    This school had a computer club in 1968
    The school had a time sharing terminal
    Mothers of lakeside school had enough money to pay for the schools computer fees
    one of the parents happened to work at c-Cubed ( someone had to check its code on weekends)
    Gates happened to find out about ISI, and they required a software for the payrolls
    Gates happened to live within waling distance of Washington university
    It offered him free time between 3 am and 6 am in the morning
    TRW called somebody called Pembroke to find out the best programmers. He knew only Bill gates
    All this gave Bill gates time to practice and become an expert
    By the time he dropped out of Harvard he had done programming for seven consecutive years. He was way past 10,000 hours
    According to Gates only 50 kids in the entire world would have had this kind of opportunity
  • 1975
    Most important date in the history of the personal computer revolution was January 1975
    Magazine popular electronics ran a cover story on a super machine called Altair 8800
    Do it yourself mini computer kit , you could assemble at home
  • 1975
    If you were too old in 1975, you are already with IBM making it difficult to make the transition to the new world
    The perfect age to be in 1975 is old enough to be part of the revolution. You should be 20 or 21
    Bill gates 1955 -
    Paul Allen 1953 – Founder Microsoft
    Steve Ballmer 1956 – 3rd richest in Microsoft
    Steve jobs 1955 – Apple
    Eric Schmidt 1955 – CEO Google
  • 1975
    Bill Joy – 1954
    Founders of Sun Microsystem
    Scott mcNealy 1954
    Vinod Khosla 1955
    Andy Bechtolsheim 1955
  • 1860s & 70 s
    Greatest change in American History
    Railroads
    Wall street
    Industrial manufacturing
    Rules of traditional economy were broken
    How old were you when the transformation happened
    Born in the 40’s – too young
    Born in the 20’s – too old
  • 1860s & 70 s
    Rockfeller – 1839 ( standard oil)
    Andrew Carnegie – 1835 ( Steel )
    Fredrick weyerhauseuser – 1834
    Jay Gould – 1836 ( Union pacific)
    Marshal Field – 1834 (
    George baker – 1840 ( rail road of NJ)
    Hetty Green – 1834 ( Bank)
    James Fair – 1831 ( Virginia mining)
    Henry Rogers – 1840 ( standard oil company)
    JP Morgan – 1837 ( general electric)
    Oliver Payne – 1839 (Standard oil company)
    George Puliman – 1831 ( Pull man)
    Peter Arrell – 1834 (American Tobacco)
    Philip Armour – 1832 ( Armour refrigerator)
  • Beatles
    Came to USA in 1964
    In 1960 they were a struggling school rock band
    Were invited to play in Hamburg, Germany
    They were asked to play hour after hour to catch the passing traffic
    In Liver pool they played one hour session
    In Hamburg, they played seven nights a week , 8 hours a day
  • Beatles
    On their first trip they played 106 nights –
    5 or more hours a night
    In just over a year and a half, they played performed 270 nights
    By 1964, they had performed live an estimated 1200 times
    Most bands don’t do that in their entire career
    They were close to 10,000 hours in 10 years
    Their talent undeniable, but their extraordinary opportunities made them prepare
    Learning: Practice
  • Canada and Ice hockey
    In the elite group of hockey players
    40 % were born between January and Feb
    30 % April and June
    20 % between July and September
    10 % October and December
  • Canada and Ice hockey
    Nothing to do with Astrology
    The eligibility cut of date for age- class hockey is january 1st .
    A boy who turns 10 on Jan 2nd is playing alongside someone who doesn’t turn 10 until the end of next year
    At that age a twelvemonth gap in age represents an enormous difference in physical maturity
    He gets twice as much as someone who get left behind due to Jan 1st date
    By the age of 14, this extra practice gives him the edge
  • The trouble with Genuises
    ‘Knowledge of a boy’s iq is of little help if you are faced with a formful of clever boys’
    1 vs 100
    100 ordinary people who serve as what is called ‘mob’
    1 person , special guest has to answer them
    Christoperlangan – IQ 195 ( Einstein 150)
    Considered as the smartest man in USA
    When his winnings reached $2,50,000
    Says ‘ I will take the cash’ and walks away
  • The trouble with geniuses - 2
    Chris Langan
    Started talking in 6 months
    Taught himself to read at 3 years
    Mother missed a deadline to sign his financial aid form
    Pleads his case
    Scholarship taken away
    Oppenheimer
    Tries to poison his tutor
    Pleads his case
    Sent to a psychiatrist
    Becomes scientific director of the Manhattan project
  • The trouble with geniuses - 2
    The particular skill that allows you to talk your way out of a murder rap or convince your professor to move you from the morning to the afternoon section
    practical intelligence
    Knowing what to say to whom
    Knowing when to say
    knowing how to say it for maximum effect
    Oppenheimer had both – general intelligence and practical intelligence
  • The trouble with geniuses - 2
    Oppenheimer
    Raised in a wealthy neighborhood
    Son of an artist
    Weekends spent in country side
    Summers in Europe
    Chris Langan
    Home dominated by an angry drunken stepfather
    As a child
    Distrust authority
    Be independent
    Never had a parent to teach him how to speak up for himself
  • The ethnic theory of plane crashes
    The loss rate for an airline like United Airlines in 1988 to 1998 was .27 per million departures
    They lost a plane in an accident about once in every 4 million flights
    The loss rate for Korean aire
    4.79 per million departures
    More than 17 times higher
  • Audit
    Flight crews were smoking on the tarmac
    during refueling
    In the freight area
    When the plane was in the air
    Crew read news papers thru the flight
    Often with news papers held in such a way that if a warning light came on it would not be noticed
    Numerous procedural violations
    Korean president “ our country’s credibility is at stake’
  • Miracle
    Korean air turned itself around
    Is today part of the Skyteam alliance
    Safety record spotless since 1999
    2006 won the Phoenix award
  • Miracle
    In an overwhelming number of cases the plane is behind schedule , pilots are hurrying
    In 52 % of the crashes , pilot at the time of accident has been awake for 12 hours or more
    Tired and not thinking
    44 % of the time , two pilots have never flown together
    ‘The whole flight deck design is intended to be operated by two people and that operation works best when you have one person checking the other’ Chief engineer for safety at Boeing.
  • Avianca accident 1990
    Route Colombia to New York
    Poor weather
    230 flights delayed
    Flight was held up by the Air traffic controller three times
    Plane circled for a long time , an hour and a half before it was cleared
    The plane crashed in the real estate owned bu the father of John McCnroe
    Reason ‘Fuel exhaustion”