Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Business Forum 2010 Economic Update
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Business Forum 2010 Economic Update

3,424

Published on

One of Australia’s leading and incisive economists, Craig James explains how Australia’s performance has shown signs of strength and resilience compared to other economies and shows signs of recovery. …

One of Australia’s leading and incisive economists, Craig James explains how Australia’s performance has shown signs of strength and resilience compared to other economies and shows signs of recovery. He also delves into what is likely to happen and affect our economy into the future. As a seasoned professional within banking, finance and journalism over the last 27 years, Craig is currently Chief Equities Economist at Commonwealth Securities, where he interprets 'big picture' economic and financial trends for customers, clients and staff.

http://www.charteredaccountants.com.au

Published in: Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
3,424
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
27
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. W1 - Economic update Craig James Chief Equities Economist CommSec
  • 2. Economy 2010: “May you find what you are looking for” media.merchantcircle.com Craig James Chief Economist, CommSec, April 2010
  • 3. Important information This presentation has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. Before acting on the information in this seminar, you should consider its appropriateness to your circumstances and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814 (CommSec) is a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 and a Participant of the ASX Group. Examples used in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only.
  • 4. Australia & the World Global healing process Two speed global economy Asia’s decade Two-speed domestic economy China & population World focus is on debt Australia’s focus is on sustainable prosperity.
  • 5. The Big Picture Drivers of world economy Contribution to growth 2010 percentage points China 0.85 United States 0.76 India 0.19 Japan 0.17 Newly indust.Asia 0.15 Brazil 0.15 ASEAN 5 0.12 Russia 0.08 Germany 0.07 France 0.07 Canada 0.07 Mexico 0.06 Other countries 1.46 WORLD 4.2 Source: IMF, CommSec * Newly industrialised Asia - Hong Kong, Taiwan Singapore and South Korea ASEAN 5 - Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand Phillipines, Vietnam
  • 6. World in recovery US economy recovers… but major hopes rest with China… www.flixsnips.com/hong-kong-advertisment-skyline/
  • 7. China awakes Land of 1.3 billion people industrialises… www.novinite.com Major resource demands…
  • 8. China on industrialisation path Same path, different sizes of population. www.thenewmans.id.au
  • 9. Australia in 2010 and beyond No recession China, population & construction Managing prosperity Two-speed? Housing shortage Tightening job market Policy challenges.
  • 10. New commodity boom
  • 11. Population & Construction Population growth…opportunities & challenges… Construction pipeline is full…
  • 12. Two speed economy Western Australia & Queensland: 65% of exports; 50% of investment…
  • 13. So What? Housing issues Home prices to rise 5-8% in 2010 High prices?…demand & supply… but is housing really unaffordable?
  • 14. Business & Consumers Confidence rebounds to near record highs… …but reluctant to spend & borrow… WHAT WE SPENT IN 2009 selected, percent change on year ago BOATS, CARAVANS, BICYCLES 39.1 WATER & SEWERAGE CHARGES 17.7 SPORTING & RECREATIONAL SERVICES 16.9 TAKE-AWAY FOOD 13.8 MEDICINES MEDICAL AIDS 13.6 LIQUOR STORES 13.3 PURCHASE OF VEHICLES -4.3 JEWELLERY, WATCHES, CLOCKS -11.4 MOTORING FUEL -12.9 NEWSPAPERS & BOOKS -13.2 Source: CommSec, based on ABS data
  • 15. Looking ahead Winners Housing-dependent industries & retailers Large retailers Consumers Imports Losers/Challenges Tourist operators/regions Small retailers ‘Old economy’.
  • 16. So What? Outlook for jobs Skilled staff in demand; wage costs to rise Firms didn’t fire, didn’t hire… Flexible work practices to continue…
  • 17. So What? Outlook for interest rates More rate hikes in 2010; Fix vs. Variable RBA near normal…where do we go from here? Savers are key winners…
  • 18. So What? Aussie dollar & shares Competition for funds; Budgeting, exports Shares to rise in line with stronger economies… Aussie may ease, but still above-average…
  • 19. Global Wall of Worry Debt, debt and debt World's largest economies 2009, US$ billion % total Stimulus to be withdrawn 1 United States $14,256 24.6 2 Japan $5,068 8.7 Double-dip recession? 3 China $4,909 8.5 4 Germany $3,353 5.8 US mortgage 5 France $2,676 4.6 foreclosures 6 United Kingdom $2,184 3.8 7 Italy $2,118 3.7 Commercial property 8 Brazil $1,574 2.7 9 Spain $1,464 2.5 10 Canada $1,336 2.3 Dubai, Greece, Spain 11 India $1,236 2.1 12 Russia $1,229 2.1 China boom, yuan. 13 Australia $997 1.7 28 Greece $331 0.6 Source: IMF, CommSec
  • 20. Budgets & Debt
  • 21. CommSec forecasts FORECASTS Economic growth 1.70% in 2009 3.25% in 2010 Inflation 2.50% mid-2010 2.75% end-2010 Unemployment 5.25% mid-2010 4.75% end-2010 Cash rate 4.50% mid-2010 4.75-5.00% end-2010 Sharemarket 5,150 by June 2010 5,600 by December 2010 Australian dollar US95c in June 2010 US90c in December 2010
  • 22. www.despair.com
  • 23. Disclaimer: This paper represents the opinion of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia (the Institute) or its members. The contents are for general information only. They are not intended as professional advice - for that you should consult a Chartered Accountant or other suitably qualified professional. The Institute expressly disclaims all liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon any information in these papers.

×