Real Estate and Economic Outlook                   Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.                      Chief Economist            NAT...
Annual Existing Home Sales:                 A Tough, Flat 4 years8    In million units7      7.086               6.525    ...
Despite Second Home Sales Recovery        In thousands 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000                                           ...
Owner-Occupancy Sales Falling       In thousands600050004000300020001000   0         2005         2006   2007   2008   200...
2012 First Half: Strongest in 5 years6,000,0005,000,0004,000,000                                        2008              ...
Charleston Region Housing Statistics• Closing Sales of 10,748 in July 2012 (12-month total)   … Up 19% from July, 2011• Me...
Monthly Pending Home Sales Index                           (Seasonally Adjusted)115110105       Homebuyer Tax Credit100959...
REALTOR® Member Market Survey       Buyer Traffic   Seller Traffic80.060.040.020.0 0.0
Annual Membership               (NRDS count at year-end)1,500,0001,400,0001,300,0001,200,0001,100,0001,000,000  900,000  8...
Improving Factors for Higher Sales in 2012:1.  High Affordability and Job Creation2.  Solid stock market recovery from 200...
50            70                 90                      110                            130                               ...
1,000                                        1,500                                                2,000                   ...
0                 1                     2                         3                             4                         ...
Annual Household Formation…      Future Rent Pressure?                  (3 separate Census data)   In millionsHousehold Fo...
Home Price:                   Big Declines from 2006 to 2008                  Small Declines from 2009 to 2011            ...
Home Prices Index       350       300       250                                                                           ...
Home PricesMetric         % change from one year ago   CommentNAR            + 7.9%                       Mix of homes imp...
Equity and Underwater Homeowners                   Positive Equity                 Negative Equity                   Homeo...
15% of Homeowners are Underwater             Homeowners            15%                          Underwater                ...
0                  2                      4                          6                              8                     ...
Visible Housing Inventory(Existing inv. At 6-year low; New inv. at 50-year low)4,500,0004,000,0003,500,0003,000,0002,500,0...
Shadow Inventory             (Seriously delinquent mortgage + homes in foreclosure process)                               ...
500                                             1000                                                    1500              ...
0                                       10000                                               12000           2000          ...
50,000                     55,000                                       65,000                                            ...
25,000            29,000            31,000            33,000            35,000            39,000            41,000        ...
59            60            61            62            64            65            66            67            69        ...
Wealth Distribution (Federal Reserve data on median net worth, with 2011 NAR estimate) $300,000 $250,000 $200,000         ...
Banks/Regulators                   Restricting Credit          (Average Credit Scores of Approved Loans)            Normal...
-200       -100               0                   100                         200                               300       ...
Economy Growing, though Slowly     %                                Real GDP43210         2005   2006   2007   2008   2009...
10                                   20                                                          30-40      -30           ...
Payroll Jobs Changes                            (December to December)3     In millions210       2005        2006   2007  ...
61                       63                            64                                 65                              ...
%                            10                            20                            30                            40 ...
200            220                        260                              280                                    300     ...
Charleston Payroll Jobs from 1940      In thousands350300250200150100 50 0  1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1...
Unemployment Rate     %                          (Average during the Year)121086420         2005   2006    2007    2008   ...
Consumer Price Inflation                (Above Fed’s preferred 2% core inflation rate)                                 Ren...
Prepare for Early Move (2014)                 by Federal Reserve                           Fed Funds          30-year Mort...
Forecast Summary                      2011           2012           2013                      History        Forecast     ...
Risks to Forecast• Washington Policy   – QRM 20% down payment requirement?   – Other Dodd-Frank rules? Help or Hurt?   – B...
-1600000           -1400000                      -1200000                                 -1000000                        ...
World Report CardCountry                                  10-Year Borrowing RateSwitzerland                              0...
State Report CardState                           10-year Borrowing Rate above                                Benchmark (% ...
Commercial Real Estate
Big Transactions Coming Back                                                $2.5 million property and above     Source: Re...
REALTOR® Business Deals   (Majority are less than $1 million)
Underwriting Standards?
Multifamily Fundamentals                       Completions   Net Absorption   Vacancy250,000                              ...
Office Fundamentals                                Completions   Net Absorption   Vacancy           150                   ...
Commercial Market ForecastOFFICE                                          2011      2012      2013                        ...
For Daily Update and Analysis• Twitter    @NAR_Research
Q &  A
2012 Midyear Charleston Residential Real Estate Market Update
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2012 Midyear Charleston Residential Real Estate Market Update

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Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist and senior vice president of research for the National Association of REALTORS presentation at the Charleston Trident Association of REALTORS 2012 Midyear Residential Real Estate Market Update. Dr. Yun shares national and local (Charleston, SC) data recapping market activity through July 2012 and offers a forecast for the remainder of 2012 and beyond.

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  • Currently, deal flow remains significantly below the 2007 peak, but sizable transactions have been reported recently, and there has been a year-over-year improvement in transaction volume. In 2010, commercial real estate deal volume rose 124.3 percent year-over-year, to $122.7 billion, compared to $54.7 billion in 2009. Gains were higher for high-quality core assets, especially in the office segment, where sales volume rose 156.6 percent YoY to $41.1 billion in 2010, from $16.0 billion in 2009. The growth has continued so far in 2011, with CRE deal volume rising 69.5 percent YoY in 1Q11 to $30.5 billion. While this improvement is a positive development, it has yet to be sustained for a long enough to confirm 2009 as the bottom for transactions in this cycle. Transaction levels remain below peak, but private investors continue to account for the largest share of the total. The recent increase, however, has been driven by public investors (including REITs) and foreign investors, with both categories surpassing 2009 totals in 2010.
  • 2012 Midyear Charleston Residential Real Estate Market Update

    1. 1. Real Estate and Economic Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Presentation at Charleston Trident Association of REALTORS® August 15, 2012
    2. 2. Annual Existing Home Sales: A Tough, Flat 4 years8 In million units7 7.086 6.525 5.024 4.12 4.34 4.18 4.263210 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
    3. 3. Despite Second Home Sales Recovery In thousands 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 Investment 1500 1000 Vacation 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201153% of REALTOR® members own a residential investment property29% own a commercial property19% own a vacation home
    4. 4. Owner-Occupancy Sales Falling In thousands600050004000300020001000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
    5. 5. 2012 First Half: Strongest in 5 years6,000,0005,000,0004,000,000 2008 20093,000,000 20102,000,000 2011 20121,000,000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
    6. 6. Charleston Region Housing Statistics• Closing Sales of 10,748 in July 2012 (12-month total) … Up 19% from July, 2011• Median price … up 3.4% from one year ago• Inventory … down 26%• Months Supply … 7.1 (from 11.4 one year ago)Source: Charleston Trident MLS
    7. 7. Monthly Pending Home Sales Index (Seasonally Adjusted)115110105 Homebuyer Tax Credit100959085807570 2007 - 2007 - 2008 - 2008 - 2009 - 2009 - 2010 - 2010 - 2011 - 2011 - 2012 - Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan July Jan Source: NAR
    8. 8. REALTOR® Member Market Survey Buyer Traffic Seller Traffic80.060.040.020.0 0.0
    9. 9. Annual Membership (NRDS count at year-end)1,500,0001,400,0001,300,0001,200,0001,100,0001,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 10
    10. 10. Improving Factors for Higher Sales in 2012:1. High Affordability and Job Creation2. Solid stock market recovery from 20083. Rising rents and a larger pool of qualified renters4. Pent-up release of Household Formation • Rising demand for ownership and rentals as young-adults move out of parent’s basement5. Smart money chasing real estate (i.e., investors)6. Consumer confidence in buying an appreciating asset
    11. 11. 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 21019701972197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002 Best Affordability Conditions20042006200820102012
    12. 12. 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 500 0 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jun2005 - Nov 2006 - Apr 2006 - Sep 2007 - Feb 2007 - Jul2007 - Dec2008 - May 2008 - Oct2009 - Mar2009 - Aug 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jun2010 - Nov 2011 - Apr 2011 - Sep S&P 500 (Almost 100% from low point) 2012 - Feb NASDAQ (More than 100% increase from low point) S&P 500 NASDAQ
    13. 13. 0 1 2 3 4 5 -12000 - Jan2000 - Jul2001 - Jan2001 - Jul2002 - Jan2002 - Jul2003 - Jan2003 - Jul2004 - Jan2004 - Jul2005 - Jan2005 - Jul2006 - Jan2006 - Jul2007 - Jan2007 - Jul Rent Growth2008 - Jan % change from one year ago2008 - Jul2009 - Jan2009 - Jul2010 - Jan2010 - Jul (Component from Consumer Price Index)2011 - Jan2011 - Jul2012 - Jan
    14. 14. Annual Household Formation… Future Rent Pressure? (3 separate Census data) In millionsHousehold Formation leads to increase ownership and renters;Could begin to return to normal of at least 1 million from 2012.
    15. 15. Home Price: Big Declines from 2006 to 2008 Small Declines from 2009 to 2011 (index set at 100 from 2000) Case-Shiller FHFA220200180160140120100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan
    16. 16. Home Prices Index 350 300 250 Charleston 200 Phoenix 150 100 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
    17. 17. Home PricesMetric % change from one year ago CommentNAR + 7.9% Mix of homes impact price … fewer distressed sales recentlyCase-Shiller - 1.9% Lagging indicator … one month 1.3% jump in AprilFHFA + 3.0% 3 straight monthly increase to AprilCore Logic + 2.0% 3 straight monthly increase to MayFNC - 1.8% 3 straight monthly increase to MayRadar Logic - 0.2% 3 straight monthly increase to April
    18. 18. Equity and Underwater Homeowners Positive Equity Negative Equity Homeowners HomeownersEarly 2012 About 65 million 11 to 12 million Of which 25 million have no mortgagesAfter 5% price 67 million 9 millionappreciationAfter 10% price 69 million 7 millionappreciation Source: Census, Federal Reserve, CoreLogic, NAR estimates
    19. 19. 15% of Homeowners are Underwater Homeowners 15% Underwater Abovewater 85%
    20. 20. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2005 - Jan2005 - May 2005 - Sep 2006 - Jan2006 - May 2006 - Sep 2007 - Jan2007 - May 2007 - Sep 2008 - Jan2008 - May 2008 - Sep 2009 - Jan2009 - May 2009 - Sep 2010 - Jan (Around 6 months is normal)2010 - May 2010 - Sep Inventory in Months Supply 2011 - Jan2011 - May 2011 - Sep 2012 - Jan2012 - May
    21. 21. Visible Housing Inventory(Existing inv. At 6-year low; New inv. at 50-year low)4,500,0004,000,0003,500,0003,000,0002,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000 500,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan Existing New
    22. 22. Shadow Inventory (Seriously delinquent mortgage + homes in foreclosure process) million units 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2002 - Q1 2000 - Q1 2000 - Q3 2001 - Q1 2001 - Q3 2002 - Q3 2003 - Q1 2003 - Q3 2004 - Q1 2004 - Q3 2005 - Q1 2005 - Q3 2006 - Q1 2006 - Q3 2007 - Q1 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q1 2008 - Q3 2009 - Q1 2009 - Q3 2010 - Q1 2010 - Q3 2011 - Q1 2011 - Q3 2012 - Q1Shadow Inventory can be defined as those distressed properties not yet on the market but will atsome point appear given the serious delinquency situation.Latest and Forecast: Shadow inventory admittedly is still high, but it is about 1 million fewer than twoyears ago and is anticipated to steadily diminish over time. The falling share of distressed propertiesover time will lead to the median price of all homes that gets transacted to be higher.
    23. 23. 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 0 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - JanSource: Census, HUD 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul Thousand units (annualized) 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan multifamily 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul single-family Housing Starts 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan (Well Below 50-year average of 1.5 million each year) 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan Long-term Average
    24. 24. 0 10000 12000 2000 4000 6000 800019801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008 Charleston Housing Permits200920102011
    25. 25. 50,000 55,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 60,0001980 - Q11981 - Q31983 - Q11984 - Q31986 - Q11987 - Q31989 - Q11990 - Q31992 - Q11993 - Q31995 - Q11996 - Q3 Homeowners1998 - Q11999 - Q32001 - Q12002 - Q32004 - Q12005 - Q32007 - Q1 Owner Occupied Housing Units2008 - Q32010 - Q12011 - Q3
    26. 26. 25,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 35,000 39,000 41,000 27,000 37,0001980 - Q11981 - Q31983 - Q11984 - Q31986 - Q11987 - Q31989 - Q11990 - Q31992 - Q11993 - Q31995 - Q11996 - Q31998 - Q1 Rental Households1999 - Q32001 - Q12002 - Q32004 - Q12005 - Q32007 - Q1 Rental Occupied Housing Units2008 - Q32010 - Q12011 - Q3
    27. 27. 59 60 61 62 64 65 66 67 69 70 63 68 %1965 - Q11967 - Q11969 - Q11971 - Q11973 - Q11975 - Q11977 - Q11979 - Q11981 - Q11983 - Q11985 - Q11987 - Q11989 - Q11991 - Q1 (Lowest in 15 years)1993 - Q11995 - Q11997 - Q11999 - Q12001 - Q12003 - Q12005 - Q1 Homeownership Rate at 65.4%2007 - Q12009 - Q12011 - Q1
    28. 28. Wealth Distribution (Federal Reserve data on median net worth, with 2011 NAR estimate) $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 1998 2001 $150,000 2004 $100,000 2007 2010 $50,000 $0 Renter OwnerData Source for Median Net Worth: Federal Reserve
    29. 29. Banks/Regulators Restricting Credit (Average Credit Scores of Approved Loans) Normal 2009 2010 If NormalFannie 720 761 762 720Freddie 720 757 758 720FHA 650 682 698 660 15% to 20% Higher Sales
    30. 30. -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 2001 - Q1 $ billion 2001 - Q3 2002 - Q1 2002 - Q3 2003 - Q1 2003 - Q3 2004 - Q1 2004 - Q3 2005 - Q1 2005 - Q3 2006 - Q1 2006 - Q3 2007 - Q1 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q1 (excluding Federal Reserve) 2008 - Q3 2009 - Q1 2009 - Q3 Financial Industry Profits 2010 - Q1 2010 - Q3 2011 - Q1 2011 - Q3 2012 - Q1
    31. 31. Economy Growing, though Slowly % Real GDP43210 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-1 forecast forecast-2-3-4
    32. 32. 10 20 30-40 -30 -20 -10 0 2000 - Q1 2000 - Q3 2001 - Q1 2001 - Q3 2002 - Q1 2002 - Q3 2003 - Q1 2003 - Q3 2004 - Q1 2004 - Q3 2005 - Q1 2005 - Q3 2006 - Q1 2006 - Q3 2007 - Q1 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q1 2008 - Q3 2009 - Q1 2009 - Q3 2010 - Q1 2010 - Q3 2011 - Q1 Home Buyer Tax Credit Residential Investment Spending Growth 2011 - Q3 2012 - Q1
    33. 33. Payroll Jobs Changes (December to December)3 In millions210 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-1 forecast forecast-2-3-4-5-6
    34. 34. 61 63 64 65 66 67 68 62 %1990 - Jan1991 - Jan1992 - Jan1993 - Jan1994 - Jan1995 - Jan1996 - Jan1997 - Jan1998 - Jan1999 - Jan2000 - Jan2001 - Jan2002 - Jan2003 - Jan2004 - Jan2005 - Jan2006 - Jan2007 - Jan2008 - Jan2009 - Jan2010 - Jan Labor Force Participation Rate2011 - Jan2012 - Jan
    35. 35. % 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 100 1948 - Jan 1951 - Jan 1954 - Jan 1957 - JanSource: BLS 1960 - Jan 1963 - Jan 1966 - Jan 1969 - Jan 1972 - Jan 1975 - Jan 1978 - Jan 1981 - Jan 1984 - Jan 1987 - Jan 1990 - Jan 1993 - Jan Women Men 1996 - Jan 1999 - Jan Labor Force Participation Rate 2002 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2011 - Jan
    36. 36. 200 220 260 280 300 320 2402000 -…2000 -…2001 -… In thousands2001 -…2002 -…2002 -…2003 -…2003 -…2004 -…2004 -…2005 -…2005 -…2006 -…2006 -…2007 -…2007 -…2008 -…2008 -…2009 -…2009 -…2010 -…2010 -… Charleston Payroll Jobs2011 -…2011 -…2012 -…
    37. 37. Charleston Payroll Jobs from 1940 In thousands350300250200150100 50 0 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan
    38. 38. Unemployment Rate % (Average during the Year)121086420 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 forecast forecast Need to add 250,000 jobs each month for the next 8 years to bring the unemployment rate down to 5%.
    39. 39. Consumer Price Inflation (Above Fed’s preferred 2% core inflation rate) Rent All Items Core %543210 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-1 forecast forecast
    40. 40. Prepare for Early Move (2014) by Federal Reserve Fed Funds 30-year Mortgage %76543210 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 forecast forecast forecast Modestly higher rates could help home sales as banks re-staff mortgage work for home purchase applications and less refinance applications.
    41. 41. Forecast Summary 2011 2012 2013 History Forecast ForecastExisting Home Sales 4.26 million 4.6 million 5.0 millionNew Home Sales 301,000 390,000 630,000Housing Starts 611,000 770,000 1,150,000Existing Home Price $166,100 $173,000 $182,000GDP Growth +1.7% +2.0% +2.9%Payroll Job Gains +1.7 million +1.5 million +2.3 millionFed Funds Rate 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%30-yr Mortgage 4.7% 3.8% 4.1%
    42. 42. Risks to Forecast• Washington Policy – QRM 20% down payment requirement? – Other Dodd-Frank rules? Help or Hurt? – Basel 3 … capital rule that punishes private mortgage with low down payment and commercial loans – Trim mortgage interest deduction? – Capital gains tax on home sale? – Fiscal Cliff on January 1, 2013 … if no new compromised budget, then: • Automatic deep cuts to military and domestic spending • Automatic higher taxes • 3% shaved off GDP
    43. 43. -1600000 -1400000 -1200000 -1000000 -800000 -600000 -400000 400000 -200000 200000 0 2000 - Jan 2000 - Aug 2001 - Mar 2001 - Oct 2002 - May 2002 - Dec 2003 - Jul 2004 - Feb $ million; 12-month Total 2004 - Sep 2005 - Apr 2005 - Nov 2006 - Jun 2007 - Jan 2007 - Aug 2008 - Mar 2008 - Oct 2009 - May 2009 - Dec U.S. Federal Budget Deficit 2010 - Jul 2011 - Feb 2011 - Sep 2012 - Apr
    44. 44. World Report CardCountry 10-Year Borrowing RateSwitzerland 0.5%Germany 1.3%Singapore 1.3%United States 1.4%United Kingdom 1.5%Canada 1.6%France 2.2%Brazil 2.9%Italy 6.0%Spain 6.8%Greece 26.0% Source: Bloomberg as of July 26, 2012
    45. 45. State Report CardState 10-year Borrowing Rate above Benchmark (% points)Average State borrowing costs Around 3.5%Rhode Island Benchmark + 0.5%Michigan Benchmark + 0.7%Nevada Benchmark + 0.7%California Benchmark + 0.9%Illinois Benchmark + 1.6%Source: WSJ
    46. 46. Commercial Real Estate
    47. 47. Big Transactions Coming Back $2.5 million property and above Source: Real Capital Analytics, 4Q 2011.13
    48. 48. REALTOR® Business Deals (Majority are less than $1 million)
    49. 49. Underwriting Standards?
    50. 50. Multifamily Fundamentals Completions Net Absorption Vacancy250,000 9.0 8.0200,000 7.0150,000 6.0 5.0100,000 4.0 50,000 3.0 2.0 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.0-50,000 Source: NAR/REIS 0.0
    51. 51. Office Fundamentals Completions Net Absorption Vacancy 150 20.0Millions 18.0 100 16.0 14.0 50 12.0 0 10.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 8.0 -50 6.0 4.0 -100 2.0 -150 Source: NAR/REIS 0.0
    52. 52. Commercial Market ForecastOFFICE 2011 2012 2013 Vacancy Rate 16.6% 16.3% 15.9% Net Absorption (000 sq. ft.) 20,178 31,700 53,000 Completions (000 sq. ft.) 11,659 25,474 37,847 Rent Growth 1.4% 1.7% 2.4%INDUSTRIAL 2011 2012 2013 Vacancy Rate 12.4% 11.9% 11.1% Net Absorption (000 sq. ft.) 61,957 41,249 59,855 Completions (000 sq. ft.) 20,462 26,947 54,881 Rent Growth -0.5% 1.8% 2.3%RETAIL 2011 2012 2013 Vacancy Rate 12.9% 12.2% 11.0% Net Absorption (000 sq. ft.) 1,238 13,547 23,330 Completions (000 sq. ft.) 4,207 12,677 19,878 Rent Growth -0.2% 0.7% 1.4%MULTI-FAMILY 2011 2012 2013 Vacancy Rate 5.4% 4.6% 4.5% Net Absorption (Units) 238,398 126,621 102,687 Completions (Units) 38,014 88,839 93,706 Rent Growth 2.5% 3.5% 3.8%
    53. 53. For Daily Update and Analysis• Twitter @NAR_Research
    54. 54. Q & A

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