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2012 Commercial Market Forecast

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Speaker presentations from the 2012 Commercial Market Forecast in Charleston, South Carolina. Panelists included local business executives and Ray Owens, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Speaker presentations from the 2012 Commercial Market Forecast in Charleston, South Carolina. Panelists included local business executives and Ray Owens, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.


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  • subsectors from the tech perspectivebias toward digital and softwaredoes not include bio, materials, chemical
  • 1. pick a lifestyle, around people like me. be smart about it by picking a city that has momentum and opportunity2. cool job means attractive culture in the workplace. all software developers have an idea that could spin off a company.
  • source: http://www.charlestonworks.com and Dr. Starr
  • thousands of companies and agencies produce software or write software to float their business.software is a cross-cutting aspect of arguably all businesses and government agencies. use or develop and use, or develop and sell.
  • CHS - less cut throat pillaging of talented software developers.West coast – high competition for talent.
  • game changerscloud implies low to no capital overhead in starting software companycheap cycles = arduino, raspberry pi, arm processors, linuxInformation and process automation, AI are the raw materials of an information economyprogramming is the new literacy. The three Rs were sufficient for an industrial economy, but not now.
  • game changerscloud implies low to no capital overhead in starting software companycheap cycles = arduino, raspberry pi, arm processors, linuxInformation and process automation, AI are the raw materials of an information economyprogramming is the new literacy. The three Rs were sufficient for an industrial economy, but not now.
  • game changerscloud implies low to no capital overhead in starting software companycheap cycles = arduino, raspberry pi, arm processors, linuxInformation and process automation, AI are the raw materials of an information economyprogramming is the new literacy. The three Rs were sufficient for an industrial economy, but not now.
  • service class does not contribute directly to economic growthbitter pill?
  • Tech after 5maker lab n. charlestonjava, linux, ruby, Code Camp, CofC Center for Continuing Ed and Professional DevelopmentBarcamp, Pecha Kucha, Tedx Charleston
  • Tech after 5maker lab n. charlestonjava, linux, ruby, Code Camp, CofC Center for Continuing Ed and Professional DevelopmentBarcamp, Pecha Kucha, Tedx Charleston
  • lifetime earning potential = $2 billion. from an investment of 2 million. (1000 fold)recruited from SC, and across USwest coast and northeast in particularSecond to SC, the state the provides the most students to the CofC? NJ.
  • Tech talent, high bandwidth access, tax incentives for tech companies, tolerance for LCBG, foreigners, bohemiansthe little things... from chamber-of-commerce morning breakfast in ties to Tech After 5 with beer, Pecha Kucha, Barcamp, Ignite, Geekups.
  • agility - the measure of how quickly the community can adapt to its new paradigm shifts to attract the tech communityadaptability - the capability to rearrange components to meet a different set of demands by the tech communitytiming – staying in the game as other cities respond
  • Nate DaPore = PeopleMatter
  • Employee data as of 05 October 2012
  • Established in 1978 as Navy Management Systems Support Office (NavMASSO).- Joined SPAWAR in OCT 1997 as SPAWAR Systems Center Chesapeake.- Moved to Norfolk Naval base and re-designated as SPAWAR Systems Center Norfolk in JAN 2002.- Realigned with SSC Charleston & New Orleans in SEP 2008 as SSC Atlantic.
  • 2 China tech firms called spy suppliersOctober 9, 2012 12:05 amBy Michael S. Schmidt, Keith Bradsher and Christine Hauser / The New York Times WASHINGTON -- The House Intelligence Committee recommended Monday that U.S. companies should be blocked from carrying out mergers and acquisitions involving two Chinese telecommunications firms, saying their equipment could be used for spying in the United States.Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/news/world/2-china-tech-firms-called-spy-suppliers-656735/#ixzz28pagLQnQU.S. crude up $3 on Middle East geopolitical tensionsPanetta: We are strongly committed to strengthening our defense partnershipsPentagonOctober 9, 2012By: Robert Tilford“As part of our new defense strategy in the United States, we are strongly committed to strengthening our defense partnerships in the Americas and in other regions of the world", Panetta said.Credits:  csmonitor.com Oct 9 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures extended gains to $3 a barrel on Tuesday as the threat of supply disruption in a tense Middle East reinforced the geopolitical fear premium for oil and countered concerns about slower economic growth.Threat from Cyber Attacks Nearing Statistical CertaintyBy Mike Lennon on June 22, 2011 inShare18It’s rare that a day goes by without seeing news of another breach or other form of cyber attack in the news headlines. According to a recent survey, organizations are currently experiencing multiple breaches, with more than half (59 percent) of respondents citing two or more breaches in the past 12 months.September 2012 the Motivations Behind Cyber Attack55% Cyber crime42% Hacktivism3% Cyber Espionage1% Cyber Warfare
  • CNO’s Navigation Plan describes the Navy’s budget submission for Fiscal Years 2013-2017.  The Nav Plan is designed to update you on our budget. Our budget decisions were guided by the defense strategic guidance and “Sailing Directions”.  The Nav Plan provides details on how we will execute this guidance, highlighting our investments through the lens of my three tenets: Warfighting First, Operate Forward, and Be Ready. 
  • We have the current Navy strategy (June 2011) which clearly recognizes the fundamental issue/concern of our country losing it’s technological advantage due to the decline of students pursuing STEM career fields.It defines four phases… to Inspire, Engage, Educate and Employ. It is a Natural progression… beginning with inspiring children to consider the sciences as a career path… all the way to employing them. ..thus building a pipeline of continuous flow of potential STEM employees.SSC Atlantic early… 2008… engagement with National Defense Education Program (NDEP)Legal Authority 10 USC Chapter 111. Sections 2192 through 2195 are our basis/authority for:SMART Program, STEM, Education Partnerships at elementary and secondary education levels as well as COOP Agreements at colligate levels.Our NSBE Chapter was re-established May 17, 2011Mr. Miller and Captain Glover are our NSBE Chapter championsFirst engagement with the Historically Black College and University (HBCU) Pipeline Project was last summer. .. A little background information….This program was initiated by National Nuclear Security Agency to increase population of students in Nuclear Engineering.Pictures : DimensionU competition. March 29, 2012 The conference center at SSC Atlantic was the site of a Tri-County DimensionU competition which pitted 36 students from six local middle schools who tested their math and science skills in online, multi-player educational video game software. DimensionU gaming software covers K-12 subjects, with content aligned to state and national educational standards. The games engage students in a series of first-person action adventure missions with three-dimensional graphics, sound and animation comparable to those in popular video games. Students customize their avatars and can go online to play individually or in teams, with classmates or with other students around the world. By effectively navigating the myriad of embedded lessons covering math, science, language or history, students can master concepts previously discussed in the classroom. "IT Shadow Day" Kevin Votapka, February 13, 2012, demonstrates and discusses some of the equipment used to perform depot maintenance with students from Charleston area high schools . The students went on a number of tours and were provided information about SSC Atlantic's role in Information Technology for the Warfighter. Supporting the Western Regional Collegiate Cyber Defense Competition SSC Atlantic and SPAWARNRs 220 and 303 are in Pomona , Calif. The conference center at SSC Atlantic was the site of a March 29 Tri-County DimensionU competition which pitted 36 students from six local middle schools who tested their math and science skills in online, multi-player educational video gam...e software. DimensionU gaming software covers K-12 subjects, with content aligned to state and national educational standards. The games engage students in a series of first-person action adventure missions with three-dimensional graphics, sound and animation comparable to those in popular video games. Students customize their avatars and can go online to play individually or in teams, with classmates or with other students around the world. By effectively navigating the myriad of embedded lessons covering math, science, language or history, students can master concepts previously discussed in the classroom. "IT Shadow Day" where they went on tours and were provided information about SSC Atlantic's role in Information Technology for the Warfighter. New Orleans area – over 400 man-hours volunteered to promoting STEMNOLA STEM Events (as of May 2012)Judging a First Lego League (FLL) regional competition in Covington, LAJudging the regional MATH Counts competition in New OrleansParticipating as a mentor for Clearwood Junior High School in Slidell, LA for the MATH Counts teamAssisting the Navy Research Laboratory (NRL) in conducting the First Annual Gulf coast Regional SeaPearch Competition in Biloxi, MSHosted Benjamin Franklin High School to tour SPAWAR-Atlantic in New Orleans for National IT Shadow Day, also providing a robotics demonstration put together by the University of New Orleans.Provided a speaker for Warren Easton High School STEM Career Day.Served as a Mentor for Slidell High School Robotics Team for the FIRST Robotics TeamProvided 5 volunteers to promote STEM at the Bayou Regional FIRST Robotics Regional Competition in Kenner, LAJudged the Greater New Orleans Science and Engineering Fair (GNOSEF) in New Orleans, LAJudged the District VIII Science Fair in Hammond, LANew Orleans area - 337 man-hours volunteered to promoting STEM (as of May 2012)
  • Transcript

    • 1. Silicon Harbor The Future of theCharleston Technology Sector
    • 2. Tech IndustryCreate new IP design software provide infrastructureLearn continuously
    • 3. Software developeralgorithm of life 1: pick an amazing city 2: find a sick job default: start a software company Charleston Attracts
    • 4. Software EntrepreneurshipATD, Blackbaud, Benefitfocus, Bibliolabs, BlueAcorn, Blue Key, BlueIon, BookSurge, Boomtown, CanteyTech, CreateSpace/Amazon, Cybersprockets, eGroup, Ethority, Good Done Great, InformationAlchomy, Jack Russell, King &Partners, Mandex, Modus21, PeopleMatter, Sawgrass, Social123, SPARC, Visualive.tv, ...100+
    • 5. Software Sectorsbiomedical, healthcare, DOD, defensecontractors, Dept ofCommerce, transportation/logistics, aerospace, energy, softwaresecurity, banking/finance, bigdata/analytics, saas, paas, iaas,... 1x103+
    • 6. Recruiting Tech CompaniesVCs know Charleston is a 2x location programmer salaries real estate costYoung companies incubate
    • 7. Fastcompany, June 2012
    • 8. Paradigm ShiftsInformation economy Cloud computing Cheap compute cycles Cheap memory Information = new oil
    • 9. Computational Thinking
    • 10. Computational Thinking...in the US
    • 11. Richard FloridaCreative Class creates new IP to grow info economyService Class serve the growing high techindustries
    • 12. Local AssetsGeography (beach, green space, proximity)Arts (music, art, playhouses, SPOLETO)Education (CS, Data Science, CITA)Food (Chefs, beer, bars, coffee)...but thats not all
    • 13. Tech FabricEducational threads CS @CofC, Citadel, CSU, Clemson, USC CodeCamp CofC Center for Continuing Ed & PD
    • 14. Tech FabricIncubation and Acceleration Flagship – CHS Digital Corridor The Lowcountry Innovation Center SCRA MUSC Innovation Center Mount Pleasant Incubator
    • 15. Tech FabricSocial threads Tech Meet ups Maker labs User groups Events
    • 16. Growing Tech Talent1980-2012: 600 CS graduates from CofC1987 100 CS undergraduate students 95% exited Charleston2011 251+ CS undergrads 84% stayed in Charleston
    • 17. 2x Talent PipelineToday: 200 unfilled software developer jobs 30-40 CS grads/yr Tomorrow: 500 undergrads by 2016 100 CS grads/yr by 2016 Digital Media Center 2013
    • 18. Foster the Culturetalent, technology, tolerancecoffee shops, foodies, youth, nightlife incityuniversities and researchlive-work-play-workbandwidth and network ubiquity
    • 19. Foster the Culture proximity of living space to work space lateral job movement potential direct flights to VCs and markets bandwidth
    • 20. Risks to CharlestonStaying parochial vs. competingnationallyIgnoring native assets vs. leveragingthem
    • 21. Local challengesTolerance cycling, skate boards, kayaks, sailing LGBT community bohemians internationals
    • 22. Local challengesalternate Transportation car sharing / electric plug stations cycling buses with GPS data light rail pedestrian centric
    • 23. Local challengesSpace more landing pads airBnB for startups new designs for live-work-play new business models for commercial space
    • 24. Local challengesState support for tech Infrastructure IncentivesInvestors Angel funds Venture funds
    • 25. Sense the Urgency Agility Adaptability Timing
    • 26. Silicon HarborLets move there together
    • 27. Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center Atlantic 11 October 2012 Commercial Real Estate Mr. Christopher Miller Market Forecast SSC Atlantic The Daniel Island Club Executive Director Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
    • 28. We are a Department of the Navy Information Technology (IT) Command We rapidly deliver and support solutions that enable information dominance for our Naval, Joint, National, and Coalition Warfighters. SSC Atlantic HQ 3,910 Civil Service PersonnelSSCCommandHQ 127 Military Personnel 9,200 Industry Partners Strategically located to quickly respond to new threats and develop practical solutions Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012). 42
    • 29. Joint Base Charleston Major Commands • Army Strategic Logistics ActivityJBC Weapons Station Joint Base CHS Charleston (ASLAC)Total Personnel: 21,800 • Pre-positioning shipsReal Estate: 23,777 Acres • Single point of entry for returningAssets: $12.2 Billion MRAPs / MATVsTenant Units: 53 • Naval Health ClinicSSC Atlantic (Chs) • Serving 6,915 Navy, 6,000 VAPersonnel: • Naval Nuclear Training Command2,590 Govt & Mil82 Buildings (NNPTC) and 1,409,000 Gross sq ft 485,160 sq ft Lab space Naval Nuclear Power Training 11 SCIFs Unit (NNPTU) • 4,500 Nuclear Propulsion Students Air Force Base Joint Base CHS • Navy Munitions Command / Naval Weapons Station Charleston AFB Former CHS Naval • 269 Bunkers / 62 million # net weight Shipyard• 628th Air Base Wing • 841st Transportation Battalion • Installation Command and • 35% of all OIF / OEF material; Expeditionary Combat Forces leading port for surge• 437th / 315th Airlift • Naval Consolidated Brig Wings • Level II Medium Security • C-17 Direct Delivery anywhere in the world • SSC Atlantic • C4ISR for the Warfighter and the Nation Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012). 43
    • 30. Command History and Workload 6 FY 2011 $5.3 5 Total Obligation Total Contracting Effort* Available Ceiling Authority $ Billions $ Billions 4 $3.52 B $8.3 B 3 1994-2011 Total Contract Actions* Total Small Business * 2 18,775 $955 M 1 *Based upon FPDS-NG data as of 24 JAN 2012Part of FISC Charleston 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Part of CNSY NCTC Jacksonville SSC AtlanticNESEA Washington NCTC Norfolk ( Navy Working Capital and Mission Funds )NAVELEX Portsmouth NCTC PensacolaNESEA St. Inigoes NCTC Washington SSC New Orleans Joint Base Charleston StandupNAVELEX Charleston NISE East SSC Charleston SSC Atlantic1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 BRAC1993 BRAC 2005 NavMASSO joined SPAWAR as SSC Chesapeake SSC Norfolk Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012). 44
    • 31. Today’s Environment: Constrained Budgets and Uncertain Threats▼ Fiscally Oil Surges as Middle East  Similar to interwar period from 1919-1939 Tensions Escalate  Difficult choices & opportunities 2 China tech firms called▼ Geopolitically spy  New global competitors suppliers  Decreasing natural resources Rising tension between Syria Cyber Attacks▼ Militarily and Turkey. Nearing Statistical Certainty  Post 9/11  Evolving military strategy Panetta: We are▼ Technology strongly committed to  Cyber evolving as warfare area strengthening our  Big Data Challenge defense partnerships  Digital natives Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012). 45
    • 32. Strategic Guidance National CNO’s Navigation Plan Defense Describes the Navy’s budget submission for FY2013-2017 Strategy Increased focus on PACOM, Cyber, and Special Operations CNO’s Sailing Direction Guidance on readiness, teamwork and winning from the Sea SPAWAR Guidance Delivering core Naval Information Dominance programs that enable information to become a main battery of our warfighting capability Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012). 46
    • 33. Our Work Sourcing Approach Workforce Composition % Government Technical 100Expertise, Planning & 0 100 Engineering – Eng & Manufacturing Dev. – Materiel Solution Analysis – Production & Deployment – Technology Development Government Enterprise – Operations & Support IndustryContract Strategy thatmaximizes competition Monitoring & and agility Measuring Products & Services PerformanceCore Reusable Components 100 0 A B C Program Milestone Integrated government / Effective, innovative and affordable industry partner team = solutions for the warfighter Leveraging Technology Speed to Capability Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012). 47
    • 34. Facilities – Optimized for Requirements 2.5M sq ft, 125 Buildings Command-Wide National Research Assets:  RF Test Facility (Poseidon Park)  Vehicle Integration Solutions Center  USMC Digital Integration Facility (DIF)  Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) Test Enterprise Engineering and Certification (E2C) Vehicle Integration Solutions Center Laboratories  Environmental Test Lab  Anechoic Test Chamber  Shock and Vibration Test Capability  Platform Test & Integration Facility (SCN)Common Submarine Radio Room SSC Atlantic Data Center  Commercial and DoD Satellite Communication (Complex D)  RDT&E Network  Air Traffic Control Test Lab  C4I End-to-end Integration Lab Air Traffic Control Building Testing and Integration Facility  Multidisciplinary Research Center Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012). 48
    • 35. Workforce Development Civil Service Personnel by Competency Acquisition Workforce Contracts Science & Technology ▼ Bringing down average age Finance <1% Corporate  Current Avg Age 44 (from 46 in 2003) Operations  242 New Professionals Program  105 Student Interns Management Engineering We are the largest employer ▼ 2,293 billets (up from 1,889 in FY11) of electrical Logistics & engineers in SC ▼ Primary career fields Fleet Support  IT Specialists, Electronics Engineers, 3000 Computer Scientists, Mgmt & Bachelors Masters Doctorate Program Analysts, and Elec. Tech 2500 32 26 ▼ Emphasis on training 2000 21 23  $11M spent in workforce# Employees 1500 17 19 development in FY12 1000  $2M spent in labor for acquisition credentials in FY12 500 2011 USD AT&L Workforce 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Development Silver Award Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012). 49
    • 36. STEM Outreach: An Investment in our Nation’s Future Science, Technology, Engineering andDimensionU Competition INSPIRE Mathematics (STEM) education to the next generation of scientists and engineers, as well as their improve scientific and Collegiate Cyber Defense Competition parents and teachers. technology literacy and the competitiveness of our nation’s students. ENGAGEIT Shadow Days students build their STEM Cyber confidence and skills through Security Syllabi hands-on learning. Team SEAPEARCH Gulf Coast Regional Challenge EDUCATERobotics Competition students to be well prepared for employment in STEM careers that support the Navy and Marine Corps.HBCU Pipeline Project EMPLOY Science Fair in New Orleans ROTC Engagement retain and develop naval STEM professionals. Learn more visit https://suss.spawar.navy.mil/trqfqe Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012). 50
    • 37. Economic benefits to S.C. and the Nation*More than $9 Billion economic impact in the U.S.SSC Atlantic In South Carolina  $2.6 Billion annual economic impact  Accounts for 21,534 jobs in the Charleston area − Responsible for 1 out of every 14 jobs  One of the fastest growing business ▼ Visitors to SSC operations Atlantic, Charleston − Grew 238% from 2000 through 2009 Office  Largest employer of electronics engineers  Bring in $27 Million to the Charleston area  One of the top three employers of each year Knowledge Economy workers  Support 360 jobs in * This info taken from economic impact study done by the Division of Research, Darla Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina DTD 10.04.2009 tourism Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012). 51
    • 38. Final Thought Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012). 52
    • 39. We Make IT Count for the Warfighter and the NationWeb: http://www.public.navy.mil/spawar/Atlantic Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/spaceandnavalwarfaresystemscommand Twitter: http://twitter.com/SPAWARHQ Employment opportunities: www.USAJOBS.gov Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
    • 40. Raymond OwensOctober 11, 2012
    • 41. Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 Q2 4 3 1.3% 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -7 -7 -8 -8 -9 -9 -10 -10 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 57
    • 42. Real Gross Domestic Product 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]: Gross Domestic Product 2.5 1.3 4.1 2.0 1.3 Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.4 1.5 Nonresidential Fixed Investment 14.5 19.0 9.5 7.5 3.6 Structures 35.2 20.7 11.5 12.9 0.6 Equipment & Software 7.8 18.3 8.8 5.4 4.8 Residential Fixed Investment 4.1 1.4 12.1 20.5 8.5 Exports of Goods & Services 4.1 6.1 1.4 4.4 5.3 Imports of Goods & Services 0.1 4.7 4.9 3.1 2.8 Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross -0.8 -2.9 -2.2 -3 -0.7 Investment Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.4 LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]: Change in Private Inventories 27.5 -4.3 70.5 56.9 41.4 Net Exports of Goods & Services -399.6 -397.9 -418.0 -415.5 -407.4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 58
    • 43. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Millions of Persons 139 139 138 138 137 137 136 136 135 135 September 134 134 mil. 134 133 133 132 132 131 131 130 130 129 129 128 128 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 59
    • 44. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons 500 500 400 400 Q3 300 Avg. 300 200 200 100 100 0 0-100 -100-200 -200-300 Monthly Change -300-400 Sep. 114 -400 Aug. 142-500 -500 Jul. 181-600 Jun. 45 -600 May 87-700 -700-800 -800 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 60
    • 45. Civilian Unemployment Rate Percent11.0 11.010.5 10.510.0 10.0 9.5 9.5 9.0 September FOMC Forecast 9.0 7.8% 8.5 8.5 8.0 8.0 7.5 7.5 7.0 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the September 12-13 meeting. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics 61
    • 46. Personal Income & Expenditures 12 Month % Change 6 6 4 Real Personal 4 Income August 2 2 Real Personal Consumption Expenditure 0 0 -2 -2 Month over Month % Change -4 Jun. Jul. Aug. -4 Income 0.2 0.1 -0.3 Expenditures -0.1 0.4 0.1 -6 -6 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 62
    • 47. Existing Single-Family Home Sales Millions of Homes6.5 6.56.0 6.05.5 5.55.0 5.0 August4.5 4 .3 mil. 4.54.0 4.03.5 Average Annual Existing Home Sales: 3.5 1990 through 19993.0 3.02.5 2.5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics 63
    • 48. Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits Millions of Starts & Permits 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 Permits 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 August 0.3 1990 – 1999 Average Multi-Family Starts 0.3 0.2 0.2 Starts 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics 64
    • 49. Real Investment in Equipment & Software Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 Q2 10 10 4.8% 5 5 0 0 -5 -5-10 -10-15 -15-20 -20-25 -25-30 -30-35 -35-40 -40 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 65
    • 50. Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 Q2 10 5 0.6% 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 -25 -25 -30 -30 -35 -35 -40 -40 -45 -45 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics 66
    • 51. Industrial Vacancies & Rents United States Charleston, S.C. Percent Index Percent Index16 7.5 24 7 Torto Wheaton15 Real Rent Index (Right Axis) 7.0 22 6.51413 6.5 20 612 6.011 18 5.5 5.510 Vacancy Rate Vacancy Rate 16 (Left Axis) 59 (Left Axis) 5.0 Torto Wheaton8 Real Rent Index 14 (Right Axis) 4.5 4.576 4.0 12 4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Torto Wheaton Research 67
    • 52. Manufacturers’ New Orders Current $, Billions 500 500 August 480 480 460 460 440 440 420 420 Twelve-Month Moving Average 400 400 380 380 360 360 340 340 320 320 300 300 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics 68
    • 53. Office Vacancies & Rents United States Percent Charleston, S.C. Index Percent Index18 30 16 23 Office Vacancy Rate17 (Left Axis) 29 Torto Wheaton 14 Real Rent Index 2216 28 (Right Axis)15 27 12 2114 2613 25 10 2012 24 8 1911 23 Torto Wheaton10 Real Rent Index 22 (Right Axis) 6 Office Vacancy Rate 189 21 (Left Axis)8 20 4 17 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Torto Wheaton Research 69
    • 54. Net Absorptions & Employment Thousands of Employees, Quarterly Averages Millions of Square Feet 250 50 200 40 150 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 -50 -10-100 -20 Net Absorptions,-150 Office Buildings Changes in -30 (Right Axis) Employment (Left Axis)-200 -40-250 -50 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Notes: Office employment is the sum of employment in information, financial activities, and professional and business services. Source: Torto Wheaton, Bureau of Labor Statistics, & Haver Analytics 70
    • 55. Consumer Price Indexes 12 Month % Change 6 6 5 All Items 5 4 4 3 3 August 2 2 Core CPI 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 Jul. Aug. CPI: All Items 1.4% 1.7% -2 Core CPI 2.1% 1.9% -2 -3 -3 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 71
    • 56. TIPS Inflation Compensation Percent 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 5-Year October 3.5 5 Years Ahead 5th 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 5-Year 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -2.0 -2.0 -2.5 -2.5 -3.0 -3.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics 72
    • 57. Monetary Policy Instruments Percent 7.0 7.0 6.5 6.5 Federal Funds Target Rate 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 Primary Credit Rate 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 October 5th 1.0 Discount Rate 1.0 (discontinued) Federal Funds Rate 0.5 Target Range 0.5 0.0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics 73
    • 58. Federal Reserve System Assets $, Billions TALF: $2 Term ABS Lending3000 Total: $2,867 Facility (TALF): $1 Total: $2,847 AIG & Bear Foreign Stearns: $42800 Currency Miscellaneous: $258 Miscellaneous: Swaps: AIG & Bear $264 $132600 Foreign Stearns: $2 Currency Swaps: $202400 Agency MBS: $843 Agency MBS: $835220020001800 Agency Agency Debt: $87 Debt: $831600 Treasury Securities: Treasury Securities:1400 $1,652 $1,64812001000 9/12/2012 10/3/2012 Notes: Discount Window lending is less than $1 bln. as of 1/25. Foreign Currency Swaps were less than $1 bln. until 10/19/11. Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics 74
    • 59. Capital Market Rates Percent 10.5 10.5 9.5 9.5 Corporate BBB 8.5 Bond Rate 8.5 30 Year 7.5 Conventional 7.5 Mortgage Rate 6.5 6.5 5.5 5.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.5 October 5th Corporate AAA 2.5 10-Yr. Treasury 2.5 Bond Rate Bond Rate 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics 75
    • 60. Ready-to-use Web ContentDownload copies of the reports(and more commercial researchresources!) atCharlestonRealtors.com/CID